East Anatolian Fault Research Articles

Fault Coalescence, Slip Distribution, and Stress Drop of the February 2023 Southeast Türkiye Earthquakes from Joint Inversion of SAR, GNSS, and Burst Overlap Interferometry

Abstract Two devastating earthquakes struck southeastern Türkiye and northwestern Syria on 6 February 2023: an Mw 7.8 mainshock, followed 9 hr later by an Mw 7.6 aftershock. To recover and separate the subsurface geometry and slip distributions along the two earthquake faults, we jointly invert Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, Synthetic Aperture Radar pixel offset tracking, burst overlap interferometry (BOI), Global Navigation Satellite System, and aftershock datasets. We introduce a new Kalman filter-based approach for merging spatially dense azimuth offset (AZO) data with the more precise yet spatially sparse BOI data. This procedure yields improved measurements of the displacements parallel to the near north-south satellite tracks, which are critical for resolving slip along most of the Mw 7.8 fault segments. We optimize the inversion using a new metric for assessing the degree of spatial correlation between the coseismic slip gradients and early aftershocks, resulting in a stable solution honoring the complementarity between the geodetic and aftershock datasets. The analysis suggests that the Mw 7.8 rupture consisted of three large segments and two short fault branches, covering about 300 km along the East Anatolian fault (EAF), whereas the Mw 7.6 rupture consisted of three segments extending for about 160 km along the nearby Sürgü fault (SF). On the basis of moment-to-stress-drop scaling relations, we show that the Mw 7.6 stress drop is four times larger than the Mw 7.8 stress drop, consistent with the larger recurrence intervals for Mw > 7 earthquakes on the SF than on the EAF. The moment released during the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake is 2–4 times larger than the sum of the moments released during individual historical Mw > 7 earthquakes along the three segments of the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake. Thus, when considering moment release for multisegment earthquakes, one should note that the final moment of fault coalescence is likely larger than the arithmetic sum of individual segment ruptures.

2023 Earthquake Doublet in Türkiye Reveals the Complexities of the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from Aftershock Patterns and Moment Tensor Solutions

Abstract The East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) is a 700-km-long left-lateral transform fault system along the boundary between the Anatolian and Arabian plates. In the interseismic period, the eastern segments of the EAFZ display relatively uniform seismic activity, whereas the western segments exhibit seismic gaps, localized clusters, and extensive diffuse zones. Hence, our understanding of the geometry and kinematics of the western and northern segments remain limited. The occurrences of the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş on the main branch and Mw 7.6 Elbistan earthquakes on the northern branch have led to complex aftershock activity shedding light on the nature of these relatively silent segments. In this study, to better understand the complexities of the fault, we constructed a comprehensive catalog of ∼32,000 earthquakes that occurred between 6 February 2023 and 30 March 2023, using a deep-neural-network-based picker. In addition, 170 earthquake source mechanisms with Mw 3.5+ were obtained from regional moment tensor inversion. The spatial distribution of the aftershocks shows that most of the activity clusters around the fault bends and major depressions. Previously unmapped and inactive secondary faults of varying lengths are identified within these geometrical complexities. The new seismological observations provide compelling evidence of extension along the Karasu valley, compression occurring along the Erkenek segment, reactivation of basin faults near the Narlı fault zone and the persistent shallow seismic creep of the Pütürge segment. The analysis of seismicity and earthquake source mechanisms along the northern branch reveals the structures of previously inactive faults, both near the extensional Göksun bend in the west and the compressional Nurhak fault complex in the east. In summary, we illustrate the intricacies of previously quiet segments of the EAFZ and aim to gain a deeper understanding of how secondary faults and geometrical discontinuities along the EAFZ played a role in shaping the 2023 Türkiye doublet earthquakes.

Surface deformations of the 6 February 2023 earthquake sequence, eastern Türkiye.

Two powerful earthquakes struck Türkiye on 6 February 2023. The initial rupture was on the Dead Sea fault zone, yet maximum displacements and energy release [moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8] occurred 24 seconds later when rupture transferred to the East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ). More than 7 hours later, a Mw 4.5 aftershock at the junction of the EAFZ with the east-west striking Çardak-Sürgü fault was followed 86 minutes later by the second large (Mw 7.5) earthquake, suggesting a causal relationship. We provide quantitative ground and aerial documentation of surface offsets and kinematics from the slipped faults, providing important data on surface deformation during large continental strike-slip earthquakes, rupture propagation mechanisms, and how slip may be transferred between complex fault systems. We also provide insight into how slip along linked fault systems accommodates global plate motions.

Destructive impact of successive high magnitude earthquakes occurred in Türkiye’s Kahramanmaraş on February 6, 2023

AbstractTwo successive earthquakes with moment magnitudes of Mw = 7.7 (focal depth = 8.6 km) and Mw = 7.6 (focal depth = 7 km) occurred approximately within 9 h on February 6, 2023, in Türkiye, respectively. The epicenters were the Pazarcık and Elbistan districts of Kahramanmaraş. Both earthquakes occurred in the East Anatolian Fault Zone, one of Türkiye’s two major active fault systems. Between these two severe earthquakes, there was one more big aftershock with a moment magnitude of 6.6, the epicenter of which was in the Nurdağı District of Gaziantep. Then, on February 20, 2023, another aftershock earthquake with a magnitude of Mw = 6.4 occurred in Yayladağı district of Hatay. As a result of the earthquakes, severe damage occurred in several provinces and districts with a population of around 15 million, and more than 50,000 people have lost their lives. This study presents on-site geotechnical and structural investigations by a team of researchers after the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. It summarizes the performance of the building environments as a result of on-site assessments, taking into account observed structural damage, local site conditions, and strong ground motion data. The possible causes of the observed damage are addressed in detail. These earthquakes once again revealed the common deficiencies of existing reinforced concrete structures in Türkiye, such as poor material quality, poor workmanship, unsuitability of reinforcement detailing, and inadequate earthquake-resistant construction techniques. Precast concrete and masonry structures in the region were also severely damaged during the earthquakes due to insufficient engineering service, poor materials, deficiencies during construction, etc.

Can Geometrical Barrier Explain the Mw 7.8 Earthquake in Southern Türkiye on February 2023?

Abstract Two large-magnitude earthquakes hit southern Türkiye on February 2023. The first, Mw 7.8 strike-slip earthquake generated a rupture of 300 km section along the ∼600 km long East Anatolian fault (EAF). Here, we present an analytical solution using perturbation theory for the static stress field near the EAF induced by the fault geometry and the tectonic loading before these earthquakes. By applying the Coulomb failure criterion, we show that a large stress barrier is developed around the segment that ruptured in the first earthquake. Considering stress field conditions that are associated with left-lateral strike-slip on the fault, we demonstrate how the barrier location is mostly determined by the fault geometry, while its magnitude is sensitive to the background stress value and direction. We further show that the elastic energy around the fault increases to maximum values near the barrier region and decreases away from it. Therefore, we suggest that the high magnitude and the associated long rupture of the earthquake were strongly influenced by the static stress heterogeneity generated by the fault geometry.

The Role of Stress Transfer in Rupture Nucleation and Inhibition in the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, Sequence, and a One-Year Earthquake Forecast

Abstract We probe the interaction of large earthquakes on the East Anatolian fault zone, site of four Mw ≥ 6.8 events since 2020. We find that the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık shock promoted the Mw 7.7 Elbistan earthquake 9 hr later, largely through unclamping of the epicentral patch of the future rupture. Epicentral unclamping is also documented in the 1987 Superstition Hills, 1997 Kagoshima, and 2019 Ridgecrest sequences, so this may be common. The Mw 7.7 Elbistan earthquake, in turn, is calculated to have reduced the shear stress on the central Pazarcık rupture, producing a decrease in the aftershock rate along that section of the rupture. Nevertheless, the Mw 7.7 event ruptured through a Çardak fault section on which the shear stress was decreased by the Mw 7.8 rupture, and so rupture propagation was not halted by the static stress decrease. The 2020 Mw 6.8 Doğanyol–Sivrice earthquake, located beyond the northeast tip of the Mw 7.8 Pazarcık rupture, locally dropped the stress by ∼10 bars. The 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake then increased the stress there by 1–2 bar, leaving a net stress drop, resulting in a hole in the 2023 Pazarcık aftershocks. We find that many lobes of calculated stress increase caused by the 2020–2023 Mw 6.8–7.8 earthquakes are sites of aftershocks, and we calculate 5–10 faults in several locations off the ruptures brought closer to failure. The earthquakes also cast broad stress shadows in which most faults were brought farther from failure, and we observe the beginnings of seismicity rate decreases in some of the deepest stress shadows. Some 41 Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks have struck since the Mw 7.8 mainshock. But based on these Coulomb interactions and on the rapid Kahramanmaraş aftershock decay, we forecast only about 1–3 Mw ≥ 5 earthquakes during the 12–month period beginning 1 December 2023, which is fortunately quite low.

Coseismic Slip Distribution and Coulomb Stress Change of the 2023 MW 7.8 Pazarcik and MW 7.5 Elbistan Earthquakes in Turkey

On 6 February 2023, the MW 7.8 Pazarcik and the MW 7.5 Elbistan earthquakes occurred in southeastern Turkey, close to the Syrian border, causing many deaths and a great deal of property destruction. The Pazarcik earthquake mainly damaged the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). The Elbistan earthquake mainly damaged the Cardak fault (CF) and the Doğanşehir fault (DF). In this study, Sentinel-1A ascending (ASC) and descending (DES) orbit image data and pixel offset tracking (POT) were used to derive surface deformation fields in the range and azimuth directions induced by the Pazarcik and Elbistan earthquakes (hereinafter referred to as the Turkey double earthquakes). Utilizing GPS coordinate sequence data, we computed the three-dimensional surface deformation resulting from the Turkey double earthquakes. The surface deformation InSAR and GPS results were combined to invert the coseismic slip distribution of the EAFZ, CF, and DF using a layered earth model. The results show that the coseismic ruptures of the Turkey double earthquakes were dominated by left-lateral strike-slips. The maximum slip was 7.76 m on the EAFZ and about 8.2 m on the CF. Both the earthquakes ruptured the surface. The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) was computed based on the fault slip distribution and the geometric parameters of all the active faults within 300 km of the MW 7.8 Pazarcik earthquake’s epicenter. The CFS change resulting from the Pazarcik earthquake suggests that the subsequent Elbistan earthquake was triggered by the Pazarcik earthquake. The Antakya fault experienced an increase in CFS of 8.4 bars during this double-earthquake event. Therefore, the MW 6.3 Uzunbağ earthquake on 20 February 2023 was jointly influenced by the Turkey double earthquakes. Through stress analysis of all the active faults within 300 km of the MW 7.8 Pazarcik earthquake’s epicenter, the Ecemis segment, Camliyayla fault, Aadag fault, Ayvali fault, and Pula segment were all found to be under stress loading. Particularly, the Ayvali fault and Pula segment exhibited conspicuous stress loading, signaling a higher risk of future seismic activity.

Liquefaction and performance of foundation systems in Iskenderun during 2023 Kahramanmaras-Turkiye earthquake sequence

On February 6, 2023, two devastating earthquakes occurred on the East Anatolian Fault, Turkiye. The earthquakes had severe impacts on civil engineering structures in Iskenderun, Hatay. Reconnaissance studies were performed in Iskenderun to document and evaluate the performances of the different foundation systems and improved ground. Several soil liquefaction cases, including a boulevard, a mosque complex, fishing shelter, and military quarters were observed and documented along with the ground conditions and surface ejecta characteristics. The site observations during the reconnaissance study showed that the application of the unreinforced concrete piles was not a proper foundation solution against seismic loading and did not perform well. Whereas foundation systems including reinforced barrette piles and improved sites with jet grout columns were observed to perform quite well with negligible/no deformations. Observations at several structures indicate that conventional pile foundations also performed well, however structures built on deep foundation systems together with prior jet grout improved sites performed notably better.

Response of water resources to the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes (MW 7.7 and MW 7.6) that occurred on February 6, 2023, on the East Anatolian Fault Zone (Türkiye)

Response of water resources to the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes (MW 7.7 and MW 7.6) that occurred on February 6, 2023, on the East Anatolian Fault Zone (Türkiye)

Surface rupture during the 6th of February 2023 Mw 7.6 Elbistan-Ekinözü (Kahramanmaraş) earthquake: implications for fault rupture dynamics along the northern branch of East Anatolian Fault Zone

Surface rupture during the 6th of February 2023 Mw 7.6 Elbistan-Ekinözü (Kahramanmaraş) earthquake: implications for fault rupture dynamics along the northern branch of East Anatolian Fault Zone

Kinematics of the Kahramanmaraş triple junction and of Cyprus: evidence of shear partitioning

Triple junctions involving convergent plate boundaries extend beyond local implications, which is crucial for studying the geology of convergent plate boundary zones. However, kinematic models overlook Cyprus-Anatolia motion due to limited geodetic constraints. Our study area comprises Cyprus, southern Turkey, and the Levant coast, focusing on the Kahramanmaraş triple junction, where a destructive earthquake sequence occurred on February 6, 2023. We present precise positioning data merged with published velocities, constructing an up-to-date velocity field for the interseismic period. Employing two kinematic approaches, we analyze its tectonic implications. In Cyprus, we find the relative motion of Africa (Sinai Plate) and Anatolia is partitioned between convergence in the Cyprus subduction, with a rate of 3.5–6.2 mm/yr, progressively decreasing from west to east and left-lateral transpressive Kyrenia fault, situated along the northern coast of Cyprus, with rate 3.3–4.2 mm/yr. The relative strike-slip motion between Arabia and Anatolia is partitioned between the East Anatolian Fault (slip rates 5.2–6.2 mm/yr) and some secondary faults such as Çardak and Malatya faults (slip rates 2.0–1.7 mm/yr respectively) and causes distributed deformation for a 50–60 km wide region. The largest second invariant strain rate tensors from the continuum kinematic model also coincide with the same region, the East Anatolian shear zone. A shear partitioning system exists around the Kahramanmaraş triple junction, from Cyprus to southeast Turkey. The Levant Fault has a 3.5–4.7 mm/yr left-lateral slip rate, decreasing northward as part of it is transferred to offshore faults. Strain rates appear relatively small in the Taurus range and Adana/Cilicia basin, transitioning from extensional/transtensional to compressional from east to west.

Earthquake geology of the East Anatolian Fault and its participation in a devastating earthquake

Earthquake geology of the East Anatolian Fault and its participation in a devastating earthquake

06 Şubat 2023, Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye) depreminin neden olduğu jeomorfolojik deformasyon örnekleri

The left-laterally strike-slip Pazarcık fault is one of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) segments. On February 6, 2023, the ±85 km long Pazarcık fault generated a highly destructive Mw=7.7 earthquake. This study aims to explain the geomorphological deformations caused by the February 6, 2023, Pazarcık earthquake with typical examples. The surface rupture of the earthquake between Türkoğlu and Gölbaşı was followed precisely, and the changes in the earth's surface due to the left lateral strike-slip were determined, measured, and recorded. A DJI Phantom 4 and a DJI Mini Drone were used for aerial measurements and recordings during the fieldwork. Garmin e-Trex 10 handheld GPS and tape measure were used for terrestrial measurements. During the field studies, the surface rupture of the earthquake was investigated from a geomorphological perspective and mapped by taking location data. It was determined by the measurements that the left lateral offset distances in the surface fracture vary between 4.0-6.5m. One of the geomorphological deformations of the February 6, 2023 earthquake is transpressional ridges and/or transtensional depressions. Transpressional shortening and/or transtensional extension deformations due to a single surface rupture are the natural consequences of the curvilinear slip plane of the left-laterally strike-slip Pazarcık fault. Liquefaction samples with different characteristics were observed in the Sakarkaya alluvial fill area within the Gölbaşı depression. Rockfalls occurred on sandstone, mudstone, and limestone rock slopes weakened by the discontinuity due to the density of cracks outcropping in the valley where the surface rupture passes in the Kartal, Sakarkaya section. During field studies, slides and spreading were also observed. Typical examples of slide occurred on the unconsolidated fill ground on the south coast of Gölbaşı Lake with a slight slope towards the lake as a result of the vibration effect of the earthquake. In addition, the vibration effect of the earthquake caused lateral spreading deformations in the artificial fillings of road and road junction structures.

Seismic activations in Turkey in the 17th – early 21st centuries and Kahramanmarash earthquakes on February 6, 2023

The long-term seismic regime of Turkey for the 17th - early 21st centuries are analyzed. It is shown that the fundamental feature of the seismic regime is periodic seismic activations (SA) of strong earthquakes. During the analyzed period, 14 seismic activations of various durations (from 4 to 24 years) and a different number of events (from 4 to 22) were traced. The last SA in Turkey began in 2011, and most likely did not end with the Kahramanmarash earthquake in 2023. SA, as a rule, involves the main seismically active regions of the country (the Aegean coast, the North and East Anatolian faults), but with a clear dominance a certain seismically active area with reduced activity of others. An analysis of historical seismicity shows that strong earthquakes along the North and East Anatolian faults in many cases occur in the same source zones, confirming the concept of seismic sources as inherited geological structures, which may serve as an important prognostic symptom. The Kahramanmaraş earthquakes on February 6, 2023 occurred in the framework of the seismic activation that began in 2011.The position of the Mahmaranmarash seismic source on the southern segment of the East Anatolian fault is in good agreement with displacement of seismic sources from north to south along this fault in the 20th century.

Broadband Source Model of the 2023 Mw 7.8 Türkiye Earthquake from Strong-Motion Records by Isochrone Backprojection and Empirical Green’s Function Method

Abstract The 2023 Mw 7.8 Türkiye earthquake caused severe damage in near-fault regions. The broadband source model, which is important for predicting strong motions in near-fault regions, was estimated. First, high-frequency (3–10 Hz) source imaging was performed through isochrone backprojection using near-field strong-motion records. Four segments were set, consisting of three segments along the East Anatolian fault and one segment along the splay fault where the rupture started. The estimated rupture velocities at the four segments were 2.6–3.3 km/s. The broadband (0.2–10 Hz) source model was then estimated using the empirical Green’s function method. The locations of eight strong-motion generation areas (SMGAs) of the broadband source model were searched with reference to the large brightness area estimated by isochrone backprojection. The source parameters of the SMGAs were estimated to fit the calculated acceleration and velocity envelopes at 21 strong-motion stations to the observed ones. The locations of the SMGAs were mostly consistent with the large slip area estimated by previous studies from long-period waveforms or static data, except for one SMGA with the highest Brune’s stress drop on the splay fault. The highest stress drop caused large ground motions near the splay fault, for which the supershear rupture has been suggested by previous studies. Ground motions were reproduced except for some stations affected by the fling-steps or nonlinear site effects. Although the SMGAs were not located near the southern side of the southwestern segment in Hatay Province, the large ground motions at shorter than about 2 s were mostly simulated. Large empirical site amplification factors estimated in this study must play a role on the large ground motions. The forward rupture directivity effects, with a rupture velocity of 3.3 km/s as large as the S-wave velocity, were also responsible for the large ground motions there.

Surface rupture history and 18 kyr long slip rate along the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault

We investigate the palaeo earthquakes and slip rate on the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault, which was involved in the surface rupture of the 6 February 2023 Pazarcık–Kahramanmaraş earthquake (M w 7.7) and provided insights into the long-term behaviour of this major continental fault. Palaeoseismological data from two trench sites reveal evidence for at least five surface ruptures in the Holocene Period. The historical earthquake of AD 1114 is verified at both trench sites but the following event of AD 1513 is identified at only one site. In addition, the age difference of the older events shows that historical activity is separated by much longer periods of relative quiescence that range from 500 to 1000 years, which suggests quasiperiodic earthquake occurrence on sub-segments of the Pazarcık segment. Our fault-parallel trenches revealed 101 ± 5 m offset in the last 18 kyr and 51 ± 1 m offset in the last 9 kyr on a buried stream channel and the actual channel of the same stream respectively. The correlation of the maximum and abandonment age of the channel with measured offsets revealed a 5.6 mm a −1 long-term slip rate of the fault. Supplementary material: A table and figures providing details of radiocarbon ages and trench sites are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6850786

Mathematical modeling of the Southeastern Turkey earthquake (Pazarcık, Mw 7.8) using TEC data

Southeastern Turkey perished by the Mw 7.8, Kahramanmaras earthquake on February 6, 2023, at 01:17 UT (04:17 LT). The Kahramanmaras-centered event, hit by the break of the East Anatolian Fault Line, is felt in Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, and Cyprus on the border of Turkey. Together with Syria, it causes loss of lives and severe damage in 10 cities. This work is dedicated to the people of the region. The study discusses the causality of anomalies by conducting ionospheric anomaly research via the interpolated TEC map obtained from the CODE according to the coordinates of the epicenter of the earthquake (latitude, longitude). The TEC amplitudes are observed by evolving the time-domain TEC map into the frequency-domain with the Fourier transform. The peaks of the amplitudes allow preliminary information for the anomaly days. For the anomaly, the TEC (TECU) boundaries are drawn by the statistical specification. The TEC map outside these boundaries is marked as an anomaly. The causality of abnormalities is tried to be read through the triad of the geomagnetic storm(s), solar activity, and the earthquake effect. One can find seven anomaly days in the paper. January 30, February 2, 3, 11, 15, 16, and 21 are the anomaly days. The essay probably detects the anomaly before 3 days related to the Southeastern earthquake.

Dynamics of episodic supershear in the 2023 M7.8 Kahramanmaraş/Pazarcik earthquake, revealed by near-field records and computational modeling

The 2023 M7.8 Kahramanmaraş/Pazarcik earthquake was larger and more destructive than what had been expected. Here we analyzed nearfield seismic records and developed a dynamic rupture model that reconciles different currently conflicting inversion results and reveals spatially non-uniform propagation speeds in this earthquake, with predominantly supershear speeds observed along the Narli fault and at the southwest (SW) end of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). The model highlights the critical role of geometric complexity and heterogeneous frictional conditions in facilitating continued propagation and influencing rupture speed. We also constrained the conditions that allowed for the rupture to jump from the Narli fault to EAF and to generate the delayed backpropagating rupture towards the SW. Our findings have important implications for understanding earthquake hazards and guiding future response efforts and demonstrate the value of physics based dynamic modeling fused with near-field data in enhancing our understanding of earthquake mechanisms and improving risk assessment.

Insights on the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake, Turkey, from InSAR: fault locations, rupture styles and induced deformation

SUMMARY We successfully detected widely distributed ground displacements for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey, earthquakes by conducting interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analyses using a ScanSAR observation mode. Major deformation extended approximately 350 and 150 km along the southern and northern strands bifurcating in the west of the East Anatolian Fault, produced by the main shock and the largest aftershock. The deformation map reveals that the ruptures propagated on the Erkenek, Pazarcık and Amanos segments on the southern strand and the Çardak segment on the northern strand. The fault plane of the northern strand bends approximately 45° at both edges with Z-shaped crank geometry. The bending fault at the western edge runs just along the Çardak segment but does not reach the Savrun segment, while at the eastern edge it deviates from known active faults such as Sürgü, Malatya faults and Doğansehır fault zone. A 3-D displacement map demonstrates that almost pure left-lateral fault motions were distributed along the two strands, with little vertical deformation. The moment magnitudes estimated from the slip distribution model were 7.82 and 7.66 for the southern and northern strands, respectively, with the Erkenek and Çardak segments having the largest released seismic moments on each strand, corresponding to approximately 31 and 57 per cent of the total, respectively. The Coulomb Failure Function change values indicate that the main shock can promote the largest aftershock with a standard value of the effective friction coefficient. Additionally, the unclamping effect controlled by the frictional property of the rock was a key factor in pulling the trigger of the seismic event on the northern strand. The historically accumulated and released seismic energies were imbalanced for the Pazarcık and Erkenek segments, suggesting that the 2023 event does not support a simple characteristic earthquake model; rather, it may be consistent with a supercycle model, in which the slip remnants from the characteristic earthquakes have been historically accumulated as coupling on a fault and released as huge earthquakes at longer intervals.

Identification of Source Faults of Large Earthquakes in the Turkey‐Syria Border Region Between 1000 CE and the Present, and Their Relevance for the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık Earthquake

AbstractThe 6 February 2023, Mw 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake in the Turkey‐Syria border region raises the question of whether such a large earthquake could have been foreseen, as well as what is the maximum possible magnitude (Mmax) of earthquakes on the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) system and on continental transform faults in general. To answer such questions, knowledge of past earthquakes and of their causative faults is necessary. Here, we integrate data from historical seismology, paleoseismology, archeoseismology, and remote sensing to identify the likely source faults of fourteen Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes between 1000 CE and the present in the region. We find that the 2023 Pazarcık earthquake could have been foreseen in terms of location (the EAF) and timing (an earthquake along this fault was if anything overdue), but not magnitude. We hypothesize that the maximum earthquake magnitude for the EAF is in fact 8.2, that is, a single end‐to‐end rupture of the entire fault, and that the 2023 Pazarcık earthquake did not reach Mmax by a fortuitous combination of circumstances. We conclude that such unusually large events are hard to model in terms of recurrence intervals, and that seismic hazard assessment along continental transforms cannot be done on individual fault systems but must include neighboring systems as well, because they are not kinematically independent at any time scale.