Probability Of Earthquake Occurrence Research Articles

The earthquake probabilities of the Liupanshan fault zone based on the Coulomb stress and friction constitutive law

As the forefront of the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the Liupanshan area is subjected to significant Cenozoic deformation. Considering the background of historical earthquakes and the current seismic activity, the Liupanshan fault poses a risk of strong earthquakes. This paper analyzes the evolution of Coulomb stress induced by the coseismic and postseismic viscoelastic deformation of six historical strong earthquakes that occurred around the Liupanshan area since the twentieth century. Additionally, based on the disturbance in Coulomb stress and the background seismicity rate, the probability of earthquake occurrence is quantitatively evaluated using the frictional constitutive law. The results indicate that northern section of the Liupanshan fault has higher earthquake potential than the southern section, warranting close attention. These findings serve as a reference for medium- and long-term earthquake forecast and risk assessment in the vicinity of the Liupanshan fault.

Probabilistic forecast of next earthquake event in Makran subduction zone using Weibull distribution

Earthquake is the most lethal type of natural disaster. Researchers have been working to develop precise earthquake prediction methods to save lives. A statistical investigation is an effective earthquake prediction method because they offer more details about the seismic risk or hazard issue. This study utilizes seismic data from the Makran subduction zone from 1934 to 2017. Probability distributions may be employed to assess the risk of seismic events and earthquake occurrence probability. This work estimates the probability of the next major event in the Makran subduction zone through Weibull distribution by considering strong earthquakes with a magnitude (Mw ≥ 6) in the intervals (in years) between two consecutive earthquakes. The probabilities of the forthcoming seismic event have been estimated based on the previous earthquake record, pictorially. The calculated parameters of the Weibull distribution for the Makran subduction zone may help to forecast the probabilities of a strong earthquake and describe the pattern of earthquake average return time. The calculated probability for the Weibull distribution reaches 0.92 after ten years since the last strong earthquake in 2021, indicating that the Weibull distribution within and around the present research area in 2031 will be 92%.

MCPSHA: A New Tool for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

The utilization of the Monte Carlo method in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) constitutes a compelling avenue for exploration. This approach presents itself as an efficient and adaptable alternative to conventional PSHA, particularly when confronted with intricate factors such as parameter uncertainties and diverse earthquake source models. Leveraging the Monte Carlo method and drawing from the widely adopted Cornell-type seismicity model in engineering seismology and disaster mitigation, as well as a seismicity model capturing temporal, spatial, and magnitude inhomogeneity, we have derived a formula for the probability of earthquake intensity occurrence and the mean rate of intensity occurrence over a specified time period. This effort has culminated in the development of a MATLAB-based program named MCPSHA. To assess the model's efficacy, we selected Baoji City, Shaanxi Province, China, as our research site. Our investigation delves into the disparity between occurrence probability and extreme probability (a surrogate commonly employed for occurrence probability) in the Baoji region over the next 50 years. The findings reveal that the Western region of Baoji exhibits a heightened hazard level, as depicted in the maps, which illustrate a 10% probability of exceedance within a 50-year timeframe. The probability of earthquake occurrence under various intensities (VI, VII, and VIII) over 50 years follows a declining trend from west to east. Furthermore, the likelihood of seismic intensity exceeding VI, VII, and VIII indicates the lowest exceeding probability in the northeast and the highest in the northwest. Notably, for intensities VI-VII, the difference between occurrence probability and extreme probability approaches twice, gradually diminishing with increasing intensity. This study underscores the MCPSHA model's efficacy in providing robust technical support for mitigating earthquake risk and enhancing the precision of earthquake insurance premium rate calculations.

Seismic response analysis of super-high-rise building structures with three-layer isolation systems

This paper proposes a triple-layer isolation device based on the single-story isolation and double-layer isolation. By establishing dynamic equilibrium equations and conducting earthquake response comparative analyses on the same super-tall building structure using three different forms of isolation: single-story isolation, double-layer isolation, and triple-layer isolation, it is found that the triple-layer isolation device, which adds an isolation layer on the basis of the double-layer isolation device, exhibits many different characteristics in terms of its damping mechanism, seismic response rules, etc., due to the differences in the position and quantity of the isolation layer. Rare earthquakes are equivalent to ASCE maximum considered earthquake or annual occurrence probability of 2%. The research shows that, under rare earthquake conditions, the isolation effect of the triple-layer isolation device in the super-tall frame-shear structure is better than that of the single-story isolation and double-layer isolation devices. Particularly, as the number of floors increases, the triple-layer isolation device can significantly reduce the seismic isolation support tension and compression stresses, inter-story displacement, single-story shear force, overturning moment, and floor acceleration of the high-rise building structure, and concentrate the lateral displacement of the structure on the three isolation layers, dissipating most of the seismic input energy.

The Statistical Analysis of HR Employee Retention, Salary Variation of Remote Work and Earthquake Occurrence Probability

As the fast development of statistical techniques, more and more statistical methods are widely used in different area. In this paper, we will conduct an analysis on employee retention problem, remote work salary problem, and the earthquake forecast problem based on statistical approaches. For the employee retention problem, we apply logistic regression to the HR employee retention data and successfully construct a model, which can predict each employees’ probability of leaving the company. As for the remote work salary problem, we apply multivariable linear regression to find out the impact of remote work on salary. According to the analysis, the type of remote work may have an impact on the salary. Compared to participants working on site, participants with 50% remote ratio had the mean of 17298.72 lower salary (P < 0.05). For the earthquake forecast problem, we construct a Poisson model based on the previous seismic data from Chinese mainland. Then we calculate the probabilities of earthquake occurrence and predicts the amount of earthquake in certain time interval and then verifies. These results shed light on guiding further exploration of statistical techniques including logistic regression, multivariable linear regression and Poisson model.

Statistical evaluation of earthquake forecast efficiency using earthquake-catalog and fault slip rate in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, China

Epicenter locations are generally adjacent to active faults and past seismicity regions. Past earthquake catalogs and the geometry of the active faults can provide key prior knowledge concerning earthquake forecasts. In this study, we first introduce two straightforward dedicated models, the proximity-to-past-earthquakes (PPE) and proximity-to-mapped-faults (PMF) models, to fit the seismicity in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, China. The hybrid proximity-to-known-sources (PKS) model with the optimized model parameters is then used to estimate the probability of earthquake occurrence. Second, to compare the PKS forecast efficiency to those of different models, retrospective tests are applied to a dataset located in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that the probability maps derived from PPE, PMF, and PKS have non-uniform Poisson distribution features and that there is forecasting significance for past cases of moderate earthquakes in the test region. Finally, using Molchan error diagram tests, we find that the hybrid PKS model performs better than the other models in the testing region. The unsatisfactory performance of the PMF model for earthquake forecasting may lie both in the incompleteness of the fault database and the lack of consideration of co-seismic ruptures. Therefore, one of the three models can be used as a base model for comparing and evaluating earthquake forecast strategies.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the Gutenberg–Richter law in eastern Shikoku, Nankai subduction zone, Japan

Earthquake and tsunami predictions comprise huge uncertainties, thus necessitating probabilistic assessments for the design of defense facilities and urban planning. In recent years, computer development has advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs), where hazard curves show the exceedance probability of the maximum tsunami height. However, owing to the lack of historical and geological tsunami records, this method is generally insufficient for validating the estimated hazard curves. The eastern coast of Shikoku in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, is suitable for validation because tsunami records from historical Nankai Trough earthquakes are available. This study evaluated PTHAs by comparing the tsunami hazard curves and exceedance frequencies of historical Nankai Trough tsunamis. We considered 3480 earthquake scenarios representing the rupture patterns of past Nankai earthquakes and calculated all tsunamis. The probability of earthquake occurrence was based on the Gutenberg–Richter law. We considered uncertainty in tsunami calculations with astronomical tide variations. The estimated tsunami hazard curves are consistent with the exceedance frequencies obtained from historical tsunamis. In addition, sensitivity tests indicate the significance of the earthquake slip heterogeneity and tsunami defense facilities in PTHAs. We also extended the PTHAs to tsunami inundation maps in high resolution and proposed an effective new method for reducing the tsunami computation load.Graphical

Spatial variability of earthquake hazard parameters, return periods and probabilities of earthquake occurrences in the eastern Himalayan seismic belt

We present a brief atlas of the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard parameters, return periods and probabilities of exceedance of medium to large earthquakes in a hazardous region of the eastern Himalayan seismic belt. A maximum likelihood procedure is applied for the purpose that allows earthquake data during 1500–2019 containing the mixed files of both the historical as well as instrumental era. The results reveal a high activity rate (λ) in eastern Nepal and Arunachal Himalaya, and a low value in the Bhutan-middle Arunachal-Assam Himalaya. A high b-value (or β-value) associated with eastern Nepal and its vicinity, Shillong Plateau and eastern Arunachal Himalaya reveals low crustal stress, while a low b-value associated with Bhutan, middle Arunachal, western Assam and east of the Lhasa reveals high differential crustal stress. The high values of Mmax (Mw > 8.0) are perceived in eastern Nepal, eastern Arunachal Himalaya, Shillong Plateau and south of Lhasa in Tibet. The return periods and probability of exceedance for magnitude Mw 6.0, 6.5 and 7.0 during the next 10-, 20- and 50-years are calculated and correlated with the prevailing tectonics and seismicity of the area. The low return periods (10–20 years) and high probabilities (>0.8) for magnitudes Mw 6.0–6.5 are associated with eastern Nepal, Shillong-Kopli Fault-Arunachal Himalaya, Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and Yadong-Gulu rift in Tibet revealing potential regions for future earthquake hazard. These hazard maps are highly useful to prepare earthquake hazard mitigation plan in high hazard regions.

Estimation of economic seismic loss of steel moment-frame buildings using a machine learning algorithm

In this study, the effect of modeling-related uncertainties on the expected annual losses of modern code-compliant steel moment-frame buildings is analyzed. Probabilistic structural models are initially employed to account for all the critical sources of uncertainty. Then, these structural models are used to develop machine-learning-based prediction models to estimate the expected annual losses and the associated economic contributors; the developed machine-learning-based prediction models exhibit an excellent performance in the prediction of the economic seismic losses of steel frame buildings. The effect of structural-modeling-related uncertainties on each loss contributor is also evaluated; the effect of uncertain modeling parameters is observed to be more pronounced on loss contributors such as demolition and structural collapse losses that are controlled primarily by ground motions with a low probability of earthquake occurrence.

Effect of Confining Pressures on Dynamic Response Characteristics of Silty Soils in the Niger Delta

The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria was studied in this research. The resonant column/bender element tests were used for the study. Series of analysis were carried out on compacted silt in subsoil strata obtained from various locations in Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta and Akwa Ibom States. The effects of confinement on frequency, shear modulus, shear velocity and damping ratio were studied. The tests results revealed that confinement has effects on the investigated parameters. Thus, frequency response increases with increase in confinement pressure. Also, the resonance column test at various confinements revealed changes in shear modulus, accelerometer output and damping ratio. Accordingly, there was high disparity in the tested parameters as confinement pressure was increased. Similarly, the bender element tests also showed that pressure has effect on shear wave-velocity, shear modulus and damping ratio confinement. The shear modulus and shear wave-velocity generally increased as confinement pressure was increased, while damping ratio decreases as confinement pressure was increased. The variations in Resonance Column/Bender Element test parameters showed that the silty soil in the Niger Delta region, an oil and gas rich area, is likely to experience earthquake in the future. Therefore, geological data should be collated for monitoring, especially as several geological activities take place in the region.

Gravity gradient tensor analysis and its application to the Eastern Boundary Fault Zone of the Shonai Plain, Northeastern Japan

The Eastern Boundary Fault Zone of the Shonai Plain (EBFZSP), Northeast Japan is an active reverse fault zone, and its southern part is considered to have a high probability of earthquake occurrence. Also, the Aosawa Fault Zone (AFZ), categorised as a geological reverse fault, lies to the east of the EBFZSP by 3–10 km along strike, almost parallel to the EBFZSP. Therefore, the EBFZSP and its surrounding area are important in terms of their long-term earthquake occurrence potential and fault development history. After performing gravity measurements to compensate for the lack of coverage in the existing gravity database, a gravity gradient tensor analysis was applied around the EBFZSP to evaluate subsurface structural indices (dimensionality, dip angle, strike direction, and boundary indices). As a result, we conclude that the southern part of the EBFZSP appears to be at a relatively mature stage, which means that the part has both high two-dimensionality and boundary properties. On the other hand, the northern part of the EBFZSP appears to be relatively immature, which means that the northern part has both low two-dimensionality and boundary properties. A similar relationship was also found between the EBFZSP and the AFZ; that is, the former was immature, and the latter was mature. These features suggest that the EBFZSP developed from the south to the north, and was derived from the AFZ. We also found an area with high structural boundary indices and low two-dimensionality near some reported active folds beneath the Shonai Plain. A dip-angle index for a reverse-fault-like density structure showed results inconsistent with the dip angles observed on outcrop. To circumvent this contradiction, we propose the hypothesis that the EBFZSP, currently acting as a reverse fault, has a normal-fault-like density structure and we then attempt a phenomenological interpretation. The dip-angle index may be helpful only in simple situations.

Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulic-fracturing induced earthquakes

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock, gas reservoir operations, CO2 geological storage, undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology. As for the intense actual demand, the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management. This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects: earthquake occurrence probability, maximum expected magnitude forecasting, seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems. In terms of earthquake occurrence probability, we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index (SI) and hydro-mechanism nucleation. Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid, power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters. For seismic risk analysis, we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model. Furthermore, this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir, critical physical process of runaway rupture, complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect. This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production, seismic hazard mitigation, emergency management and scientific research as a reference.

Earthquake stochastic modeling and estimating the probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Hindu Kush region

The probabilistic models achieved considerable attention in the field of seismology due to their dynamic properties. In this study, an attempt has been made to quantify the uncertainty observed in the earthquake data of the Hindu Kush region by using probabilistic models. The conditional probabilities of major earthquake (Mw ≥ 5.5) occurrence in the Hindu Kush region are estimated by using the Weibull, lognormal, gamma, and log-logistic probability distributions. The maximum likelihood estimation method has been used to estimate the model parameters. Results based on the three model selection criteria suggest that the Weibull and log-logistic distributions provide the most appropriate fit, while the lognormal and gamma distributions appeared as the second and third appropriate fitted distributions to the elapsed time data of the Hindu Kush region. Using the most appropriate fitted Weibull and log-logistic distributions, it has been observed that the estimated earthquake occurrence probability of magnitude 5.5 or greater in the Hindu Kush region reaches 0.94–0.99 within next 3 to 6 (2021–2024) years since the last event occurred in 2018 in the study region. The conditional probability values are continuously increasing with increasing time interval and it approximately reaches to one in next 6 to 12 (2024–2030) years without any elapsed time, i.e., (T = 0) years. The estimated earthquake conditional probability curves for different elapsed time and time interval values are also presented to understand the earthquake genesis in the study region. The earthquake mean recurrence interval is 0.68, 0.81, 0.68, and 1.11 years by using the Weibull, lognormal, gamma, and log-logistic models respectively. According to the obtained results, the earthquake of magnitude Mw ≥ 5.5 occurrence probability in the study region is significantly high. The obtained results provide important information’s regarding the underlying physical mechanism of earthquake generation process in the Hindu Kush region.

Estimating of the b-Value Based on the Characteristic Earthquake Model

[Formula: see text]-value of the Gutenberg–Richter relation as an earthquake precursor depends on the tectonic setting features. This paper presents an alternative method to calculate [Formula: see text]-value in the presence of characteristic earthquakes. The proposed equation is based on the maximum likelihood method applied on the probability density function of the characteristic earthquake model. Data from real and simulated catalogs were used to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed model. For this purpose, 224 seismic event catalogs with various properties including catalogs’ sample size, the ratios of characteristic earthquakes number to catalog’s sample size [Formula: see text] and different magnitude of characteristic earthquakes were simulated. According to the estimated [Formula: see text]-values, the earthquake occurrence probability was calculated and discussed. The results indicate that the proposed method of estimation for [Formula: see text]-value has more adaptable consideration of the characteristic earthquake behavior.

Mathematical sustainability assessment framework of earthquake-induced steel building population

The ability to estimate the probability a building population under seismic events will be sustainable is timely, useful in appropriately allocating earthquake mitigation funds earmarked for repair, rehabilitation, and replacement. A building population is considered sustainable if actual cost incurred is less than a target cost at a given ground motion intensity level such as a certain level of spectral accelerations. The purpose of this study is to construct a mathematical framework coupled with Gompertz and power functions to determine the probability of sustainability of building population subjected to seismic events as a function of target repair-cost ratios. The framework accounts for the exceedence probability of certain earthquake occurrence in 50 years and the fragility data created by joint response surface metamodels (RSMs) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The fragility data for a population of L-shaped Steel Moment-Frame (LSMF) buildings located in the Central United States and the probability of spectral acceleration exceedence for the target region are used for this study. The probability of sustainability of the LSMF buildings built from pre-1970, between 1970 and 1990, and post-1990 are determined through the developed framework. The mathematical and graphical relationship between the probability of sustainability of the building population under a broad range of spectral accelerations and its target repair-cost ratio are determined. Key findings show that the buildings built in the post-1990 are more sustainable than those built from the pre-1970.

Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors

In this paper the authors present the method of estimation of a region, waiting period and probability of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) in Kamchatka region based on the combination of mid-term and short-term predictive signs accompanying earthquake formation. The seismological predictive parameter ξP was taken as a mid-term precursor. It was calculated on the basis of the probabilistic model of seismic regime. A complex of ionospheric parameters was considered as short-term predictive signs with an earthquake waiting period of up to 5 days. It includes the K-layer, the sporadic Es layer of the r type, the critical frequency foF2, and the frequency stratification of the F2 layer. The probabilities of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) that occurred over the period 2019–2021 in an expected zone, determined by the parameter ξP, were estimated on the basis of Bayes method provided that a complex of anomalous parameters of the ionosphere was identified.

Comparison of seismic provisions of Andean countries

This paper presents a seismic provisions comparison used in the countries of the Andean region. A brief summary of the Andean region seismicity, showing historical seismicity and the probability of earthquake occurrence in each Andean country and the overall zone is pre-sented; then a seismic provisions comparison is presented in tables taking into account the seismic hazard according to the peak ground acceleration, the site effects according to the soil classification and response spectra pseudo-acceleration. Finally, a static analysis of seismic force is carried out for each country in an intermediate-to-high seismic zone, the base design shear force is computed, and the results are compared.

Assessing the Risk of Post-earthquake Fire and Presenting Risk Reduction Strategies in Qazvin and Markazi Provinces

INTRODUCTION: The location of Qazvin and Markazi provinces in high-seismicity regions has increased the probability of earthquake occurrence in these provinces. One of the most serious crises that threaten Qazvin and Markazi provinces is the post-earthquake fire which will be very probable considering the potential hazards. The present study aimed to identify the factors affecting the post-earthquake fire and present some strategies for pre-and post-earthquake preparedness in Qazvin and Markazi provinces. METHODS: In this descriptive-analytical study, the maps were produced using the Geographic Information System (GIS), and data collection sources were books, articles, and documents. Three main maps of risk, vulnerability, and crisis were prepared, and the analyses were performed by SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) table. Thereafter, some practical strategies and policies were presented to achieve the intended goals. Strategies were developed for four programs to mitigate risk likelihood and vulnerability, manage fire, and reconstruct, along with development. FINDINGS: As evidenced by the obtained, the dispersion of some man-made factors, such as power transmission lines, gas stations, and high-risk industries, increases the likelihood of post-earthquake fires in both provinces. Furthermore, such geographical factors as scattered vegetation and location in arid climates increase the probability of fire spread. The final map of the crisis demonstrated that fires are more likely to occur in the center of Qazvin province and the north of Markazi province. CONCLUSION: Based on the results of the present study, the first step in regional planning and policy-making for the mitigation of fire hazards must be based on crisis maps and in harmony with subsequent hazards and damages. In this regard, to mitigate the risk of post-earthquake in these two provinces, the following measures are suggested: increasing safety in infrastructure, networks, facilities, industrial estates, and high-risk industries.

Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Interevent Times in Different Regions of Pakistan

Pakistan and its surroundings are among the most seismically active regions in the world. Occurrence of major earthquakes in Pakistan is a real hazard for life. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the seismic hazard in terms of earthquake occurrence conditional probabilities in different zones of Pakistan. We assumed that the temporal data of earthquakes, that occurred in different regions of Pakistan follow a certain probability distribution. In present study, the 10 probability models that include the exponential, gamma, generalized Pareto, inverse Pareto, kappa, log-logistic, lognormal, Pareto, transformed gamma and Weibull are used to analyze the interevent times of the earthquakes with $$M_{w}\ge 5.5$$ in different regions of Pakistan. In current study, Pakistan territory has been divided into five different seismic zones based on their tectonic settings. Parameters of the considered distributions are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method using the reviewed earthquake catalogue compiled by Centre for Earthquake Studies (CES), Pakistan. The best suitable model in each seismic zone is selected through various model selection criteria. The results show that the log-logistic distribution provides the best representation of earthquake temporal data of plate convergence zones; while the gamma distribution best explains the temporal seismicity of other tectonic regimes including the transform plate boundary, fold and thrust belts and stable plains. The most suitable gamma and log-logistic models are used for the earthquake occurrence probabilities in different regions of Pakistan. The highest $$(>96\%)$$ and the least $$(>30\%)$$ earthquake occurrence conditional probabilities are respectively observed for Zones I and V among five seismic zones for different combinations of elapsed time $$(\tau )$$ and time interval $$(\upsilon )$$ . The estimated probability of $$M_{w}\ge 5.5$$ event reaches (60–98)% in next (3–9) years time interval without any elapsed time $$(\tau =0)$$ in Zones II to IV (the time periods corresponding to 3–9 years time interval are 2016–2022, 2020–2026 and 2019–2025 in Zones I, II and III respectively) since the last event occurrence time in each of these seismic zone. The mean values of the interevent time for an earthquake occurrence of $$M_{w}\ge 5.5$$ in Zone-I to Zone-V are respectively calculated as 0.90, 1.78, 4.52, 3.35 and 11.76 years, respectively. The results of the present study indicate that Zone-I has potential capability of producing an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or higher in next 3 years (2019–2021) time interval since the last event occurrence in May 2018. The earthquake hazard curves associated with earthquake occurrence probabilities are also developed in order to understand the current and future earthquake mechanism in the study region.

An earthquake prediction model based on precursor window detection

The research of the earthquake precursor signal anomaly is one of the main research directions of short-term and imminent earthquake prediction. An earthquake prediction method based on time precursory window is proposed in this paper, which is based on the low-frequency electromagnetic signals collected by AETA. Firstly, the prediction model of historical low-frequency electromagnetic signals is constructed by machine learning method. The model is used to detect whether the current time period is in the window of earthquake precursors. Furthermore, two algorithms based on single-site and group-site position prediction is proposed in this paper. The algorithm filters three or more stations within the effective distance range, and uses the probability of earthquake occurrence as the weight to locate the earthquake center, so as to predict the position of earthquake occurrence. Finally, the real data set is tested on the earthquake of Qingchuan County, Guangyuan City, Sichuan Province, on February 18, 2018. The experimental results show that the proposed model has a good prediction effect.