Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors

Vadim Boganov,Aleksey Pavlov,A Dmitriev,Z Rakhmonov,G Vodinchar

doi:10.1051/epjconf/202125403003

Abstract

In this paper the authors present the method of estimation of a region, waiting period and probability of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) in Kamchatka region based on the combination of mid-term and short-term predictive signs accompanying earthquake formation. The seismological predictive parameter ξP was taken as a mid-term precursor. It was calculated on the basis of the probabilistic model of seismic regime. A complex of ionospheric parameters was considered as short-term predictive signs with an earthquake waiting period of up to 5 days. It includes the K-layer, the sporadic Es layer of the r type, the critical frequency foF2, and the frequency stratification of the F2 layer. The probabilities of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) that occurred over the period 2019–2021 in an expected zone, determined by the parameter ξP, were estimated on the basis of Bayes method provided that a complex of anomalous parameters of the ionosphere was identified.

Highlights

In [1], the results of ionospheric observations were presented for the purpose of short-term (3–5 days) assessment of the waiting period for Kamchatka earthquakes
The task arises of developing a method for estimation the probability, area and time period of expectation of strong Kamchatka earthquakes with an energy class of KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) based on the joint of seismological and ionospheric prognostic signs based on the combination of seismological and ionospheric prognostic signs
An approach is presented that combines seismological and ionospheric prognostic signs in order to assess the probability of occurrence of earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) in the Kamchatka region

Summary

Introduction

In [1], the results of ionospheric observations were presented for the purpose of short-term (3–5 days) assessment of the waiting period for Kamchatka earthquakes. The application of the theoretical-probabilistic approach to the catalogue of Kamchatka earthquakes [2] allowed to calculate the probability of seismic events entering the seismofocal zone of the Kuril Islands and southern Kamchatka and to establish for it the growth of seismic activity that occurred during 2007–2013. This made it possible to make a medium-term forecast of major earthquakes that occurred in 2013 in this area. This work is devoted to the solution of this problem

Method of calculation of seismological precursor of earthquakes

Method to estimate earthquake occurrence probability

Findings

Conclusion