The earthquake probabilities of the Liupanshan fault zone based on the Coulomb stress and friction constitutive law

Abstract

As the forefront of the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the Liupanshan area is subjected to significant Cenozoic deformation. Considering the background of historical earthquakes and the current seismic activity, the Liupanshan fault poses a risk of strong earthquakes. This paper analyzes the evolution of Coulomb stress induced by the coseismic and postseismic viscoelastic deformation of six historical strong earthquakes that occurred around the Liupanshan area since the twentieth century. Additionally, based on the disturbance in Coulomb stress and the background seismicity rate, the probability of earthquake occurrence is quantitatively evaluated using the frictional constitutive law. The results indicate that northern section of the Liupanshan fault has higher earthquake potential than the southern section, warranting close attention. These findings serve as a reference for medium- and long-term earthquake forecast and risk assessment in the vicinity of the Liupanshan fault.