Early Investment Research Articles

An Ounce of Prevention Is Worth a Pound of Cur(i)e.

The following material is in this sense a “preventative” topic, in the spirit of early and anticipatory efforts rather than greater investments once situations arise. The axiom is from The Philadelphia Gazette in 1734 and under the pseudonym of A.A. but attributed to Benjamin Franklin [ 1 Franklin B. On protection of towns from fire. Pennsylvania Gazette; 1734. https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Franklin/01-02-02-0002Date accessed: March 24, 2022 Google Scholar ]. Unlike the common current application of this saying to general medical care, Franklin was in fact addressing local fire safety. Although the juxtaposition of the words “fire” and “radiation” in generalizing this axiom is alarming (the only intended pun), the early investment and longer-term benefits are relevant to both. The “pound of cure” can be represented by many of the current efforts at radiation safety including technical improvements in equipment, protocol modifications, adherence to appropriateness, advances in measures and benchmarks for radiation dose estimates, and enhanced understanding through education and awareness. Examples of this last effort include the Image Gently® and Image Wisely® organizations as recognized promoters among many global professional societies and organizations. And although the success of such efforts is difficult to determine beyond attribution [ 2 Frush D.P. Sorantin E. Radiation use in diagnostic imaging in children: approaching the value of the pediatric radiology community. Pediatr Radiol. 2021; 51: 532-543 Crossref PubMed Scopus (6) Google Scholar ], the “ounce of prevention” of early exposure, namely early medical education, on the informed use of medical imaging, especially regarding radiation doses, risks, and associated risk dialogues, embraces the conviction that the benefits down the line will be evident and amplified.

An RSU Deployment Strategy Based on Traffic Demand in Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs)

The rapid development of connected automatic vehicle (CAV) technology makes vehicular <i>ad hoc</i> networks (VANETs) an urgently needed research field. It includes vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) message flows. A roadside unit (RSU) is an important infrastructure for V2I communication and provides roadside information services for CAVs. However, an unoptimal RSU deployment may result in RSUs failing to improve the efficiency of VANETs and compromising the capability of service to most vehicles. Motivated by this observation, this study focuses on balancing the two objectives of efficiency and coverage and establishing an RSU deployment strategy based on traffic demand. In detail, this model optimizes both the average data delivery delay in VANETs and the number of vehicles covered by RSUs. The effectiveness of the method is verified by simulation in a 4 km <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">${\times }4$ </tex-math></inline-formula> km virtual road network. We also found that: 1) if 25&#x0025; of the road segments in the road network are covered by RSUs, most vehicles can be served, and the delay of VANETs can be reduced; 2) compared with the road network with low traffic demand, more RSUs need to be deployed in the road network with high traffic demand to achieve the same effect; and 3) early RSU investment is more cost effective. Our method can provide a reference for the areas where RSU investments should be made and the priority of the areas.

Parental Investments in Early Childhood and the Gender Gap in Math and Literacy

Parental investments shape children's educational specializations. Using a longitudinal study, we find that parents invest more in daughters than sons at ages three through five. We find that early parental investment can explain persistently higher English scores for girls than boys four to six years later. However, there is no gender gap in math. Parental investments at ages three through five appear to contribute to girls' advantage in English but have little impact on math. Our results suggest that parental investments at early ages contributes to girls' comparative advantage in English.

Managing biological invasions: the cost of inaction

Ecological and socioeconomic impacts from biological invasions are rapidly escalating worldwide. While effective management underpins impact mitigation, such actions are often delayed, insufficient or entirely absent. Presently, management delays emanate from a lack of monetary rationale to invest at early invasion stages, which precludes effective prevention and eradication. Here, we provide such rationale by developing a conceptual model to quantify the cost of inaction, i.e., the additional expenditure due to delayed management, under varying time delays and management efficiencies. Further, we apply the model to management and damage cost data from a relatively data-rich genus (Aedes mosquitoes). Our model demonstrates that rapid management interventions following invasion drastically minimise costs. We also identify key points in time that differentiate among scenarios of timely, delayed and severely delayed management intervention. Any management action during the severely delayed phase results in substantial losses ( > 50% of the potential maximum loss). For Aedes spp., we estimate that the existing management delay of 55 years led to an additional total cost of approximately $ 4.57 billion (14% of the maximum cost), compared to a scenario with management action only seven years prior (< 1% of the maximum cost). Moreover, we estimate that in the absence of management action, long-term losses would have accumulated to US$ 32.31 billion, or more than seven times the observed inaction cost. These results highlight the need for more timely management of invasive alien species—either pre-invasion, or as soon as possible after detection—by demonstrating how early investments rapidly reduce long-term economic impacts.

Investment analysis of power producers under reliability option scheme

Reliability Options (ROs) are one type of Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms (CRMS) to meet generation adequacy requirement, and it has been applied in some power markets. When a power producer sells a RO, he will receive an option fee but have to sell power at a price below the strike price which is set by the buying side. This mechanism may have some impacts on the investment decisions of power producers. In this paper, the investment timing of power producers is studied. A stochastic differential electricity price model and an investment decision model are built. Some characteristics, such as mean-reversion, multi-periodic and gradual growth are considered in the price model. Real option pricing model is used to make generation investment decision and it is equivalent to a linear complementarity problem. The numerical solution is obtained by the Successive Over Relaxation (SOR) method. The example results show that the different settings of strike price and option fee will lead to early or late investment.

Designing a public-private co-investment mechanism to foster venture capital

In this paper we develop a co-investment mechanism for promoting early investment in Start-up Firms. Focusing on the (uncertain) payoffs earned by a Public Venture Capitalist (PVC) and an Independent Venture Capitalist (IVC), we model each of the alternative mechanisms as an investment timing real option and illustrate that co-investing might be the most effective mechanism to foster investment in Entrepreneurial Firms. Grounded on this theoretical framework, we list a set of both public policy and managerial implications.

Mormonism and White Supremacy: American Religion and the Problem of Racial Innocence

Mormonism and White Supremacy: American Religion and the Problem of Racial Innocence

Rural health in the Progressive Era: revisiting the hookworm intervention in the American South.

Objective: In this study, we investigated Progressive Era public health interventions and connected two subsequent efforts to improve outcomes in the American South: the Rockefeller Sanitary Commission's hookworm eradication efforts in the early 1910s and investments in local health infrastructure between the 1910s and the 1930s. We tested whether hookworm eradication had the largest effects in areas that invested in public health and whether county health organizations-cooperative public-private institutional arrangements-impacted the Rockefeller Sanitary Commission program's success. Materials and Methods: The methods used to measure the effects involved estimation of difference-in-difference and triple-difference models across the geographic samples of the Rockefeller Sanitary Commission's surveyed area, the American South, and the United States. Material on hookworm infection rates and activities by the Rockefeller Sanitary Commission is obtained from the Rockefeller Foundation Annual Reports. Material on the activities, spending, and duration of the different county health organizations is obtained from the Public Health Service Bulletin 222 titled, "A history of county health organizations in the United States: 1908-1933". Results: By comparing similar cooperative and independent county health organizations in the American South with the rest of the United States, we find that cooperative efforts are generally important and strengthen the Rockefeller Sanitary Commission's impact on human capital outcomes in the American South. Simultaneously, independent county health organizations produced negative or non-significant effects. Conclusion: The Rockefeller Sanitary Commission is important in guiding local health efforts. Our results are robust in both the short and long runs. This study sheds light on the effectiveness of public-private partnerships in rural public health during the Progressive Era.

Swedish food system transformations: Rethinking biogas transport logistics to adapt to localized agriculture

Ensuring future food and energy security will require large changes in consumption and production patterns, including enhanced animal and human excreta recycling. Although these shifts are considered in many scenario studies, their implications on the logistical requirements for effective recycling are rarely analysed. Here we translated two existing stakeholder co-designed food system scenarios for Sweden to 5 × 5 km resolution maps of animals, crops, and humans. We used optimization modelling to identify biogas plant locations to minimize transport costs and maximize nutrient reuse. We then compared scenarios, including full recycling under current landscape configuration, through Life Cycle Assessment. The reduction in meat consumption and imported food in both co-designed scenarios, by definition, led to less nutrients available in manure for recycling back on cropland, and less material available for digestion. Less excreta meant lower national benefits, for example 50% less greenhouse gas emissions savings in the most divergent scenario. However on a per transport basis the benefits of recycling were more important: recycling remained a net financial benefit even if transport costs were to increase. Although fewer biogas plant locations were necessary (184 and 228 for alternative futures, vs 236 under current conditions) to process human and animal excreta, the regional clustering of locations did not change substantially across scenarios. Regions such as Skåne and Västra Götaland consistently required the most biogas plant locations across scenarios. Focusing early construction investments in these regions would be resilient to a large array of food system futures. Our spatially-explicit open access scenario maps can be used to explore logistics for such planning, and explore the impact of landscape configuration on other sustainability priority areas.

Inequalities in Early Childhood Education and Care in Argentina and the United Kingdom (2010-2020)

Although there is a global agenda which tends to promote early childhood education and investment in early childhood, regulations and institutions are disparate between countries, and that does not seem to be tied to social welfare levels, exclusively. After studying existing evidence on educational inequalities in Argentina and the United Kingdom, in this article we present a comparative analysis of the education system’s key components, i.e., legislation, public investment, coverage levels, professionalization, and characteristics of programs aimed at children, in relation with the per capita household income. The main findings are that schooling rates are higher in the UK than in Argentina, and social inequalities are somewhat lower. However, in both cases children who are not enrolled are concentrated in the most vulnerable households. In the UK, there is a more homogeneous and professionalized system, with official assessment and supervision, international quality standards, and notable progress in literacy, but the eligibility criteria for childcare funding does not prioritize the right of the child. Instead, it is based on parents’ labor inclusion. On the other hand, Argentina is characterized by regulatory advances and free education. However, there is insufficient supply, and informal systems are widespread among vulnerable populations, which lack guidance and supervision, and virtually provide welfare aid rather than educational services.

Retrofitting urban land through integrative, subsoils-based planning of green stormwater infrastructure: a research framework

Abstract We present a research framework that integrates native subsoil performance and surface retrofitting into coordinated green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) planning. This framework provides communities a strategy to move beyond opportunistic GSI, which can be limited to capturing marginal amounts of stormwater, toward more impactful, coordinated GSI planning that restores the lost hydrologic functioning of the pre-development landscape. We create this framework by establishing critical performance-based relationships among four variables: (1) saturated hydraulic conductivity of native subsoils (∼upper 2 m below urban compaction and fill); (2) GSI design depth for both rain gardens and permeable pavement (in increments of 6″ from 12–30″ for planted and paved GSI); (3) loading ratio, defined as the ratio of GSI retrofit area to upstream impervious surface runoff area (from 1:2 to 1:5 for planted GSI; and 1:1 and direct infiltration for paved GSI); and (4) design storms (rainfall quantity up to 5-inches over 2 h and 24 h durations). We model the four variables using GSI models (built in the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Storm Water Management Model) and reliability analysis, a risk-assessment method adapted to characterize the reliability of GSI in response to varying stormwater runoff loading. The outcome of the modeling is a set of fragility curves and design prototypes, adjustable to catchment and sub-catchment scales, to assist municipalities in early funding and investment decisions to retrofit urbanized land through GSI. We also share two piloted applications in which we use the research framework within the Chicago-Calumet region in Illinois, USA, to conduct site-specific subsoil sampling and determinations of saturated hydraulic conductivity and to develop urban-scale GSI retrofit scenarios. Our framework is transferable to other urban regions, and particularly useful where a lack of integrating native subsoil performance into GSI design hinders decision-making, coordinated GSI planning at scale, and achieving high runoff reduction targets.

Decoding VC exit returns: the Indian experience

PurposeThis paper aims to analyse the effect of the investment duration, the overall market condition and the industry to which the investee firm belongs on exit returns realised by venture capital (VC) firms invested in Indian market, using hierarchical regression models.Design/methodology/approachThe study examines the relationship that exist among the variables of interest by analysing all the 210 exits that happened in the Indian VC market over the period 2004–2017 by using analytical tools such as moving averages, hierarchical regressions and pooled ordinary least squares regression.FindingsExit return has an approximate U-shaped relationship with investment duration, and the turning point in the convex relationship happens around seven to eight years after investment. Returns are weakly related to the market condition, discarding the market timing hypothesis. Relationship patterns are found to be generally unvarying during the time period under study.Research limitations/implicationsThe results indicate VC funds in the Indian market tend to exit in a brief time span and gain substantial returns from the immediate exits beyond, which returns start dipping. This points to the illiquidity of the Indian VC market wherein the exits from “lemons” are quite tricky, which make them remain invested for longer durations and eroding the value substantially in the process. VC funds may make rational investment/exit decisions in the Indian market capitalising this knowledge.Originality/valueThis study empirically connects the value creating factors in a VC process to the established theories about the early stage investments and analyse the applicability and relevance of those theories in a market with high growth potential like India.

Financial Volatility Forecasting: A Sparse Multi-Head Attention Neural Network

Accurately predicting the volatility of financial asset prices and exploring its laws of movement have profound theoretical and practical guiding significance for financial market risk early warning, asset pricing, and investment portfolio design. The traditional methods are plagued by the problem of substandard prediction performance or gradient optimization. This paper proposes a novel volatility prediction method based on sparse multi-head attention (SP-M-Attention). This model discards the two-dimensional modeling strategy of time and space of the classic deep learning model. Instead, the solution is to embed a sparse multi-head attention calculation module in the network. The main advantages are that (i) it uses the inherent advantages of the multi-head attention mechanism to achieve parallel computing, (ii) it reduces the computational complexity through sparse measurements and feature compression of volatility, and (iii) it avoids the gradient problems caused by long-range propagation and therefore, is more suitable than traditional methods for the task of analysis of long time series. In the end, the article conducts an empirical study on the effectiveness of the proposed method through real datasets of major financial markets. Experimental results show that the prediction performance of the proposed model on all real datasets surpasses all benchmark models. This discovery will aid financial risk management and the optimization of investment strategies.

Genetic trade-offs underlie divergent life history strategies for local adaptation in white clover.

Local adaptation is common in plants, yet characterization of its underlying genetic basis is rare in herbaceous perennials. Moreover, while many plant species exhibit intraspecific chemical defence polymorphisms, their importance for local adaptation remains poorly understood. We examined the genetic architecture of local adaptation in a perennial, obligately-outcrossing herbaceous legume, white clover (Trifolium repens). This widespread species displays a well-studied chemical defence polymorphism for cyanogenesis (HCN release following tissue damage) and has evolved climate-associated cyanogenesis clines throughout its range. Two biparental F2 mapping populations, derived from three parents collected in environments spanning the U.S. latitudinal species range (Duluth, MN, St. Louis, MO and Gainesville, FL), were grown in triplicate for two years in reciprocal common garden experiments in the parental environments (6,012 total plants). Vegetative growth and reproductive fitness traits displayed trade-offs across reciprocal environments, indicating local adaptation. Genetic mapping of fitness traits revealed a genetic architecture characterized by allelic trade-offs between environments, with 100% and 80% of fitness QTL in the two mapping populations showing significant QTL×E interactions, consistent with antagonistic pleiotropy. Across the genome there were three hotspots of QTL colocalization. Unexpectedly, we found little evidence that the cyanogenesis polymorphism contributes to local adaptation. Instead, divergent life history strategies in reciprocal environments were major fitness determinants: selection favoured early investment in flowering at the cost of multiyear survival in the southernmost site versus delayed flowering and multiyear persistence in the northern environments. Our findings demonstrate that multilocus genetic trade-offs contribute to contrasting life history characteristics that allow for local adaptation in this outcrossing herbaceous perennial.

Shifting parental beliefs about child development to foster parental investments and improve school readiness outcomes

Socioeconomic gaps in child development open up early, with associated disparities in parental investments in children. Understanding the drivers of these disparities is key to designing effective policies. We first show that parental beliefs about the impact of early parental investments differ across socioeconomic status (SES), with parents of higher SES being more likely to believe that parental investments impact child development. We then use two randomized controlled trials to explore the mutability of such beliefs and their link to parental investments and child development, our three primary outcomes. In the first trial (NCT02812017 on clinicaltrials.gov), parents in the treatment group were asked to watch a short educational video during four well-child visits with their pediatrician while in the second trial (NCT03076268), parents in the treatment group received twelve home visits with feedback based on their daily interactions with their child. In both cases, we find that parental beliefs about child development are malleable. The first program changes parental beliefs but fails to lastingly increase parental investments and child outcomes. By contrast, in the more intensive program, all pre-specified endpoints are improved: the augmented beliefs are associated with enriched parent-child interactions and higher vocabulary, math, and social-emotional skills for the children.

Policy design for territorial equity in multi-level and multi-sectoral political systems: Comparing health and education strategies.

The EU has many plans to foster equity and spatial justice. However, each has separate reference points, and it is difficult to find an overall vision. To demonstrate, we analyse two sectoral strategies to identify their implications for spatial justice strategies. Education focuses on early investment and public service reform. Health prioritises intersectoral action to address the 'social determinants' beyond the control of health services. Both warn against equating territorial cohesion or spatial justice with equal access to public services. These findings could inform European Commission strategy, but it tends to respond with renewed rhetoric rather than reconsidering its approach.

Analyzing the Growing Complexity of Electricity Reliability

In an earlier column, Innovating upon Infrastructure(Energy and Climate, November 2020), this author highlighted that a data abstraction layer in analytics was evolving to support data‐driven service provisioning within the utilities industry. This column builds upon this early infrastructure investment and offers a glimpse into the analytics use‐cases that support an evolving and increasingly complex electricity grid. This column will continue to explore the challenges utility analytics professionals face today.

The role of affect regulation in developmental trauma: an empirical study of children in residential care

ABSTRACT The focus of this study is the role played by chronic dysregulation of affect in the presentation and treatment of severely abused and neglected children. The study used narrative story stems to assess children at a therapeutic residential school at two time points, two years apart. The method of analysis was the Child Attachment and Play Assessment (CAPA) which uses three constructs: attachment strategy, trauma and loss, and affect regulation. As well as demographic information, data were collected on DSM-V diagnoses and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). The results lead to consideration of the importance of understanding the role of affect regulation in developmental trauma. Viewing the children’s difficulties in terms of chronic dysregulation of affect may be a more productive way of trying to understand children’s presenting problems than ACEs or psychiatric diagnoses. The findings have important implications for the medical model of child assessment using DSM-V diagnoses. A clinical implication of this research is that defences against such levels of early trauma need time and investment.

“Yearning for it” and “no turning back”—A study on Chinese international high school students’ motivations in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak

This paper studies the macro situation of studying abroad in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak and the motivations of Chinese international high school students studying abroad. The research shows that from the macro situation, the “push” growth is caused by the epidemic situation, racial discrimination, tightening employment and immigration policies, online teaching, and other reasons, while the “pull” growth is caused by the good control of the epidemic situation and the sense of belonging and security for students in China; however, from the perspective of individual choice, most international high school students still insist on studying abroad, “demand effect” and “cost effect” can explain their motivations of studying abroad. The motivation of those students going abroad unshakably mainly shows “demand effect.” They tend to satisfy the differentiated demand of personal development through studying abroad and believe that this demand is more difficult to obtain in home country. While the motivation of those students going abroad reluctantly mainly shows “cost effect.” The cost of early investment including not only monetary expenditures but also behavioral choices in K-12 education leads to their continued investment.

Optimized Expansion Strategy for a Hydrogen Pipe Network in the Port of Rotterdam with Compound Real Options Analysis

The port of Rotterdam is the largest seaport in Europe. To maintain its position, the harbor will have to anticipate global transitions such as transferring to sustainable energy. Hydrogen is seen as a promising energy carrier; however, future demand is uncertain. The current research investigates decision making under uncertainty and values flexibility. Compound real options analysis is applied to optimize the time-variant expansion strategies for a hydrogen pipe network. The trade-off between early investments and missed revenues when not investing in time determines the optimized expansion strategy. Moreover, the real options approach also provides the levelized unit price for hydrogen distribution, to cover the life cycle costs of the optimal expansion strategy. Finally, this real options approach offers flexibility to a decision maker as it allows for enhancing future decisions. The academic contribution of this research is a distinct perspective on a compound real options approach where the optimal strategic path is the key result of interest. This in contrast to other real options applications in the literature which focus on option value, exchange with limiting the options or do not visualize a strategic path. Moreover, this research demonstrates how stepwise expansion and decision making under uncertainty facilitate transitions such as the transition toward clean energy.