Decoding VC exit returns: the Indian experience

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to analyse the effect of the investment duration, the overall market condition and the industry to which the investee firm belongs on exit returns realised by venture capital (VC) firms invested in Indian market, using hierarchical regression models.Design/methodology/approachThe study examines the relationship that exist among the variables of interest by analysing all the 210 exits that happened in the Indian VC market over the period 2004–2017 by using analytical tools such as moving averages, hierarchical regressions and pooled ordinary least squares regression.FindingsExit return has an approximate U-shaped relationship with investment duration, and the turning point in the convex relationship happens around seven to eight years after investment. Returns are weakly related to the market condition, discarding the market timing hypothesis. Relationship patterns are found to be generally unvarying during the time period under study.Research limitations/implicationsThe results indicate VC funds in the Indian market tend to exit in a brief time span and gain substantial returns from the immediate exits beyond, which returns start dipping. This points to the illiquidity of the Indian VC market wherein the exits from “lemons” are quite tricky, which make them remain invested for longer durations and eroding the value substantially in the process. VC funds may make rational investment/exit decisions in the Indian market capitalising this knowledge.Originality/valueThis study empirically connects the value creating factors in a VC process to the established theories about the early stage investments and analyse the applicability and relevance of those theories in a market with high growth potential like India.