Early Census Research Articles

Some Strong Reservations: A Critique of Vera Blinn Reber’s “The Demographics of Paraguay: A Reinterpretation of the Great War, 1864-70”

When addressing weaknesses in the historical literature, or when confronting national myths, scholars should avoid overreacting. Too many have fallen into Scylla while trying to miss Charybdis. Vera Blinn Reber's The Demographics of Paraguay: A Reinterpretation of the Great War, 1864-70 (HAHR, May 1988) is a case of how a needed corrective can go too far. Reber's main argument-that the magnitude of Paraguay's population loss during the Triple Alliance War has been exaggerated-is certainly well taken. Most historians have accepted uncritically tales of losses of 50 percent or more. Reber should be congratulated for treating the question seriously, for placing it on the scholarly agenda, and for suggesting alternative ways to approach Paraguayan demography. Nevertheless, her position that Paraguay's total loss should be scaled down to 8.7 percent of its prewar population lacks a strong foundation, and involves serious methodological and empirical difficulties that require examination. Reber starts by trying to determine the prewar population of Paraguay through extrapolations from the 1846 census, the only early census widely regarded as reliable. In making her case, she draws heavily on comparisons with other Latin American countries. However, it is questionable whether the growth rates of other countries can legitimately establish a claim for Paraguay's own growth. Most scholars have regarded the coun-

The use of nativity data to estimate ethnic characteristics and patterns

Until recently, nativity data for the first and second generations (the foreign stock) have been the primary source of census information on white ethnic groups in the United States. With the development of an ancestry item, it is now possible to deal with all generations regardless of birthplace. The 1979 Current Population Survey provides a rare opportunity to cross-tabulate the results obtained from each system in order to determine the degree of overlap in the populations and the extent to which inferences about the social characteristics of ethnic groups are altered. The degree of overlap varies enormously among groups, but the results show that inferences based on nativity data are fairly close to those that would be obtained with the use of the ethnic ancestry item. This is an encouraging result for researchers obliged to use nativity data in working with earlier censuses.

An Analysis of Recent Data on the Population of China

From the late 1950s through the 1970s, confusion and disagreement over the basic facts of China's population situation abounded, largely because the Chinese government did not release collected population data. Those few local demographic statistics that were reported covered model units with unusually low mortality and fertility. Official figures on China's population size and vital rates, hinted at in radio broadcasts and newspaper articles, created uncertainty because they appeared too low to be accurate. In 1979, China's government began to publish population data from its annual reporting system for births, deaths, and population size. This step narrowed the range of demographic estimates produced by Chinese and foreign observers, but internal contradictions in the data highlighted the need for a definitive census count and for a retrospective fertility survey that could produce accurate estimates of annual births. Both a national census and a fertility survey were conducted in 1982, and publication of the results began late in that year. The 1982 census of the world's most populous country was a massive operation conducted with meticulous care.1 Several aspects of this census potentially enhance its quality and usefulness in comparison with China's two previous modern censuses of 1953 and 1964. This was the first Chinese census processed by computer, which allowed a more comprehensive series of statistics to be collected than ever before and speeded editing and tabulation. Intensive preparations, careful field editing immediately after census forms were filled out, and thorough quality control at the stage of computer entry improved the accuracy of census results.2 Definitions of residence, occupation, employment, and urban population were much more consistent with international practice than was the case in any previous Chinese census, and more data were collected on these topics than ever before. Therefore, the 1982 census lends itself to meaningful international comparisons far more than China's two earlier censuses.

A Shift in the Morph Ratio Cline in the Bananaquit on Grenada, West Indies

A Shift in the Morph Ratio Cline in the Bananaquit on Grenada, West Indies

The Experimental Analysis of Competition between Two Syntopic Species of Orb‐Web Spiders (Araneae: Araneidae)

Nonexperimental studies by several investigators have provided indirect evidence of interspecific competition between Argiope aurantia and A. trifasciata, two syntopic orb—weaving spiders common in old fields. We performed replicated field experiments in 1979 and 1980 to test directly for both inter— or intraspecific competition among these spiders. Densities of one or both species were altered within open 12 x 12 m plots in an old field in Maryland, USA. Evidence for competition was based upon the effects of the density manipulations upon web location, prey capture, growth, and survival. The experiments yielded no evidence of interspecific competition between A. aurantia and A. trifasciata. The manipulations did provide statistically significant evidence of intraspecific competition during 1979. However, no treatment effects were evident in 1980, though densities of both species were higher that year and prey appeared to have been less available than in 1979. Increasing the density of conspecifics caused an increase in the mean web height of both species during the early census period of 1979. The growth rate of A. aurantia was slightly less at the higher density in 1979, and survival (net effect of mortality, immigration, and emigration) of A. trifasciata was negatively density dependent that year. Responses to the density manipulations were variable between experimental plots and years. Some of the responses were correlated with seasonal changes in the weather and with variation in the composition and structure of the vegetation. Thus our observations provide indirect evidence of the importance of physical factors and possibly vegetation in the distribution and abundance of A. aurantia and A. trifasciata. Interspecific competition appears to have no, or only minor, influence on resource utilization, growth, and survival of these species.

A demographic profile of the Chinese in Singapore.

This paper attempts to appraise just one facet of the Chinese community in Singapore — its demographic character and the degree to which this is distinctive within the broader setting of Singapore society at large. The information available as the basis for such an analysis is limited and more definitive statements on trends and differences will be possible as the statistics compiled from the 1980 census become available.Important changes are occurring within the Chinese community which have considerable significance for the republic but for which there is no direct basis of comparison with other ethnic communities. These considerations have not been examined here but include the changing behaviour in matters of kinship, associations and societies, marriage, religion, and similar elements central to the Chinese community. Perhaps the most significant of these currently is the issue of language and the active promotion by government of Mandarin not only as the official Chinese language but as a substitute for dialects in circumstances where, until now, they have been dominant. Although surveys of language use have been carried out recently, these have been too small and too specialized to provide a basis for general conclusions, and again it is to be hoped that the 1980 census data will provide an updated benchmark for this parameter comparable to that of earlier censuses.

Postcensal Estimates for Local Areas (Or Domains)

Summary Demands are growing for more timely and varied statistics for administrative units and for other small domains. These demands exist in several countries now, and they are bound to spread to all others as useful methods become known. Possibilities depend on the availability of data and of other resources, but they are also being broadened with the introduction of newer methods. We present a review and classification of those methods together with an extensive bibliography. Then we describe a new method; iterative proportional fitting (IPF), which fits sample data with iterative techniques to a flexible nonlinear model that preserves specified relationships found in an earlier census. The model and method are justified within a broad theoretical framework. Great improvements over current methods are shown in empirical results, and are promised for many situations. 1 Statement of the problem Timely and complete social and economic data can be obtained from national sample surveys, but usually only for major domains of study. Domains can be local areas, often administrative units, such as geographic areas, for which separate estimates are planned, and which also tend to be partitions in the collection process, whether of censuses or of sample surveys. Or, on the contrary, they can be 'crossclasses' of the population and of the sample, which cut across the partitions of the collection and the sample design; for example, age and sex categories. Less commonly used than either of the above are domains that have not been distinguished in the sample selection, but tend to concentrate unevenly in the primary sample units. Estimates for small domains - any 'small' subclass or subdivision of the original domains of study - are generally unavailable from typical samples, and are obtained from population censuses or from administrative registers, and sometimes from special-purpose surveys. However, effective planning of social services and other activities cannot depend on these traditional

Aboriginal Indian Residence Patterns Preserved in Censuses and Allotments

Early reservation annuity censuses and allotment ledgers, analyzed in concert, allow identification of sociologically significant subdivisions of Native American tribes. Using this method, Southern Cheyenne manhao or "bands" can be located on the allotment map of 1892 as discrete clusters of individuals known by name, age, and sex. Measurement of linear distances among individual allotments of family members enables us to quantify jural rules of postmarital residence and confirms in a test case that the descendents of the bands at the Sand Creek Massacre in fact resided matrilocally.

Changing Patterns of Fertility in the South: A Social-Demographic Examination

The trend in the fertility differences between the South and the remainder of the U.S. - a differential which has existed since colonial times - is examined. From the earliest censuses on the South has tended to have consistently higher levels of fertility than the rest of the U.S. The general issue of regional fertility differences is dealt with before preceding with the more specific question. The approach taken is that of controlling for compositional differences and examining empirically the trend in the souther/nonsouthern fertility differential with particular emphasis on the period since World War 2. The long-standing higher fertility of the South relative to the non-South has stopped. During the 1950s the convergence and reversal in fertility levels occurred. By the end of 1970 southern fertility was lower than nonsouthern fertility because southerners prefer fewer children than nonsoutherners. In response to the question Why should region of residence be a social variable producing distinct fertility norms and there is only speculation. The source of this regional difference is probably the same as the source of fertility differences across developed nations - differences in historical and cultural backgrounds. The South and the non-South have had different historical experiences beginning in Colonial times through the Civil War and to the present period. Probably these different sets of experiences have resulted in different values and norma. Clearly region is a variable that sociologists interested in fertility will have to deal with in the future.

Nonequilibrial Bird Faunas on Islands

The breeding land bird faunas of Australia, New Zealand, and 14 offshore islands are small relative to those of their source areas. This impoverishment is examined in terms of the MacArthur-Wilson equilibrium model. The number of nonpasserine species on the Australian/New Zealand islands appears to be at equilibrium, but the number of passerines is not and is generally increasing. Furthermore, the passerines do not support the postulate of the model which states that immigration rate to islands should decrease with distance from source. Replacement of species does not always match the simple expectation that, when a fauna is close to equilibrium, one competitor replaces another. The excess of immigrations of passerines over extinctions cannot be attributed solely to sampling error or to human influences. The lack of equilibrium is surprising because there has been time for equilibrium to be reached since the Pleistocene. It is suggested that at high latitudes islands such as these may not have fixed equilibria, because as climatic conditions fluctuate irregularly, so do faunal equilibrium sizes. Very large annual changes in extinction and immigration rates of the avifauna of Skokholm Island off Wales support this suggestion. Note added in proof.-The turnover rates on tropical islands have been discussed recently by Slud (1976). He points out that the small and far Cocos Island has neither lost nor gained a species in 72 years. During a similar period the much closer and larger Tres Marias Islands have remained constant in species number and composition (Grant and Cowan 1964), or at most gained two immigrants (tables 1 and 2). Cocos and one of the Tres Marias (Cleofas) have not been disturbed by man, and the early censuses were thorough, so natural rates of change appear to be very low. Where habitats have been altered and/or early censuses were incomplete (Mona and Karkar), calculated rates of change are probably artificially high (Lynch and Johnson 1974; Slud 1976).

Mortality in Magherafelt, County Derry, in the early eighteenth century

Several writers on Irish population in the pre-famine period have suggested that detailed local studies are urgently needed to supplement the evidence from national data, such as the early census returns or the hearth tax lists, and to assist in clarifying elusive problems such as age of marriage, size of family, death-rate changes etc. It is often asserted, however, that the amount of detailed information relating to specific areas is limited and of poor quality; in particular, contrasts are drawn between the availability and usefulness of parish registers relating to pre-famine Ireland and those available to scholars in England, France and Scandinavia. Pre-famine parochial registers of burials, marriages and baptisms do nonetheless exist, and, although their use poses problems, there are indications that a good deal of useful information may be waiting to be uncovered.

The Stem Family and the Developmental Cycle of the Peasant Household: An Eighteenth-Century Austrian Example

THERE HAS BEEN a widely held sociological theory that the family structure is linked to! the development of modern Western society.' By nuclear is meant a man, his wife, and their unmarried children, if any; this becomes if their household also includes married children or some other kin. It is commonly thought that kinship ties were stronger in the past, but it has never been very clear exactly from what previous form the modern family has emerged. This is hardly the fault of sociologists, who until recently could turn to virtually no historical family studies that would meet the standards of modern scholarship.2 Only in the last few years have we seen an increase in the number of serious works on the family by historians, and we now have some excellent regional monographs3 and one general survey, Peter Laslett's The World We Have Lost.4 From his statistical studies of early censuses, Laslett has concluded that in England the family has always predominated and that there is so little evidence of extended or stem families in the past that theories claiming a shift to a pattern in modern times cannot be empirically validated.5

An Unpublished Early 17th Century Census of the Men and Arms on the Estates of the English and Scotch Settlers in Co. Armagh

An Unpublished Early 17th Century Census of the Men and Arms on the Estates of the English and Scotch Settlers in Co. Armagh

Small Areas in the Canadian Census

The spatial framework for which the Census of Canada provides data has evolved, through successive censuses, to meet the need of users. Because of the changing nature of the electoral districts of the early censuses, a more permanent spatial framework, namely, the county, and an equivalent area called the census division, was introduced in the 1921 and 1931 censuses. After World War II, users of census data requested a smaller spatial framework. In. 1951 data were available at the municipality level and, in 1961, all census data taken on a 100 per cent basis were available at the enumeration area level. Currently, the ability to provide census data for user-specified areas is being developed through a geocoding system.

Social Structure from the Early Census Returns]: Rejoinder

Social Structure from the Early Census Returns]: Rejoinder

Social Structure from the Early Census Returns

Social Structure from the Early Census Returns

Social Structure from the Early Census Returns

Social Structure from the Early Census Returns

The Regional Variation in Emigration from Ireland between 1821 and 1841

THE HISTORY of population change in Ireland is usually held to fall into two main periods: that before and that after the Great Famine of 1846-51. The rigid division of the demographic history of Ireland into these two chief periods has credited the famine with more influence than it in fact exerted. Population still increased more in the West than elsewhere after the famine;1 whilst an examination of conditions in the generation before the crisis, reveals that even then emigration was on such a scale, and natural increase was restricted through increased celibacy and postponed marriage to such an extent, that the emphatic loss of population after the famine was clearly foreshadowed. It is intended in this paper to isolate the effect of emigration on the regional variations in population change during the generation preceding the famine. The early censuses of Ireland (I812, 1821, 183I and I841) varied much in their content and accuracy. Of the four, the last was by far the fullest, and was probably the most accurate. The first failed because of insufficient direction. The enumerators chosen in Ireland not only lacked suitable qualifications, but were working under the direction of the Grand Juries, which met for two short periods only during the year. Consequently, after two years returns had been made for only a quarter of the country.2 The 183I census was unsatisfactory because enumerators considered they would be paid, and in many cases were paid, according to the numbers recorded, so that the population was exaggerated. The 1821 census was more satisfactory in this respect, and, moreover, contained valuable information on the ages of the people, which the I83I census lacked. Thus, of the censuses of the pre-famine period, those of 1821 and 1841 were most reliable. During the twenty years 1821-41 the regional variation in population change was emphatic, ranging from 7 per cent in Longford to 37 per cent in Clare. The mapping of changes by baronies shows that increases of more than 30 per cent were almost confined to the west, apart from some linen manufacturing areas of the north-east (Fig. I). Some remoter western areas recorded an increase of over 50 per cent, whilst in east-central Ireland gains of less than io per cent were common. Most eastern counties had at least one barony recording an increase of less than 5 per cent, and there were sporadic occurrences of losses: population there had indeed become almost static.

The census in Ireland of 1813-15

The first reliable statutory census of the population of Ireland was taken in 1821 and started the decennial series. An earlier census authorised by statute had been taken between 1813 and 1815. The results, however, were defective and neither printed nor presented to parliament. The causes or this failure air discussed below.The first decennial census of Great Britain (taken in 1801) was a success, and a bill to take a single census of Ireland was introduced on 31 January 1806 ‘to assimilate the laws and regulations of Ireland to those of this country as far as it is just and expedient’. It was thrown out at the first readiilg. During the commons’ debate on the second census of Great Britain (taken in 1811), several members deprecated that Ireland had again been excluded and attributed this to ‘a species of timidity on the part of certain persons who were afraid even of letting themselves know the real amount of the inhabitants of the sister kingdom’. More probably, however, Ireland was omitted because of the formidable practical difficulties her inclusion would have presented. A second bill for a census of Ireland, which became law on 18 July 1812, made light of these difficulties or suggested how they might be overcome.

The Census Research Program for the West Indies

General concern on the part of the British Government and the Caribbean sugar planters over the growth of the population available for work on the plantations in these colonies has been largely responsible for the organization of a series of censuses in the region since the early 1840s. These early censuses were carried out under special instructions from the Colonial Office, and the records indicate that technical officers of the English Registrar General's office prepared directives for the enumeration and for the tabulation of the results. In accordance with English practice, census-taking came to be entrusted to the Registrar Generals of the colonies, although before the establishment of effective registration other government functionaries performed these duties. These arrangements afforded broad comparability of results for the several colonies, but the scope of the censuses and the tabulation of the material varied appreciably from place to place. The English practice of taking decennial censuses on the one's was established, but the Second World War interrupted this series. The fact that each colony organized its own independent census has resulted in several gaps in the records. The only territory with an unbroken series since 1841 is Trinidad and Tobago, which organized 12 censuses between 1841 and 1960. The modal number of censuses taken was 11, while the lowest number (nine) was taken by Jamaica and the British Virgin Islands.1 Where the authority organizing the census had a keen interest in