Some Strong Reservations: A Critique of Vera Blinn Reber’s “The Demographics of Paraguay: A Reinterpretation of the Great War, 1864-70”

Abstract

When addressing weaknesses in the historical literature, or when confronting national myths, scholars should avoid overreacting. Too many have fallen into Scylla while trying to miss Charybdis. Vera Blinn Reber's The Demographics of Paraguay: A Reinterpretation of the Great War, 1864-70 (HAHR, May 1988) is a case of how a needed corrective can go too far. Reber's main argument-that the magnitude of Paraguay's population loss during the Triple Alliance War has been exaggerated-is certainly well taken. Most historians have accepted uncritically tales of losses of 50 percent or more. Reber should be congratulated for treating the question seriously, for placing it on the scholarly agenda, and for suggesting alternative ways to approach Paraguayan demography. Nevertheless, her position that Paraguay's total loss should be scaled down to 8.7 percent of its prewar population lacks a strong foundation, and involves serious methodological and empirical difficulties that require examination. Reber starts by trying to determine the prewar population of Paraguay through extrapolations from the 1846 census, the only early census widely regarded as reliable. In making her case, she draws heavily on comparisons with other Latin American countries. However, it is questionable whether the growth rates of other countries can legitimately establish a claim for Paraguay's own growth. Most scholars have regarded the coun-