An Analysis of Recent Data on the Population of China

Abstract

From the late 1950s through the 1970s, confusion and disagreement over the basic facts of China's population situation abounded, largely because the Chinese government did not release collected population data. Those few local demographic statistics that were reported covered model units with unusually low mortality and fertility. Official figures on China's population size and vital rates, hinted at in radio broadcasts and newspaper articles, created uncertainty because they appeared too low to be accurate. In 1979, China's government began to publish population data from its annual reporting system for births, deaths, and population size. This step narrowed the range of demographic estimates produced by Chinese and foreign observers, but internal contradictions in the data highlighted the need for a definitive census count and for a retrospective fertility survey that could produce accurate estimates of annual births. Both a national census and a fertility survey were conducted in 1982, and publication of the results began late in that year. The 1982 census of the world's most populous country was a massive operation conducted with meticulous care.1 Several aspects of this census potentially enhance its quality and usefulness in comparison with China's two previous modern censuses of 1953 and 1964. This was the first Chinese census processed by computer, which allowed a more comprehensive series of statistics to be collected than ever before and speeded editing and tabulation. Intensive preparations, careful field editing immediately after census forms were filled out, and thorough quality control at the stage of computer entry improved the accuracy of census results.2 Definitions of residence, occupation, employment, and urban population were much more consistent with international practice than was the case in any previous Chinese census, and more data were collected on these topics than ever before. Therefore, the 1982 census lends itself to meaningful international comparisons far more than China's two earlier censuses.