Dynamics Of Demographic Processes Research Articles

Assessment of the population’s quality of life in Kazakhstan during COVID-19: The effectiveness of public policy

This study aims to determine the effectiveness of Kazakhstan’s public policy during the pandemic related to healthcare, education, and the financial situation of the population by assessing the population’s quality of life (QoL). The study proceeded from the assumption that the effectiveness of state measures can be assessed through the manifestation of citizens’ reaction to the ongoing public policy, i.e., satisfaction with its results. The source base was the Bureau of National Statistics and the Adilet information and legal base covering 2020–2021. During the pandemic, the population’s satisfaction with their material provision, health, education, and living conditions decreased but not critically. The population’s QoL in Kazakhstan is satisfactory. Satisfaction among rural residents with their life (70.7%) and conditions (63.7%) is higher than among urban residents (56.1% and 49.8%, respectively). One-third of the population reported improved well-being and only 6.5% reported a deterioration. The high number of citizens satisfied with their QoL indicates the effectiveness of Kazakhstani public policy. It is the result not only of the implementation of temporary anti-crisis measures of government through program, organizational, and economic mechanisms during the pandemic but systematic work on modernization of the social, medical, and educational systems from 2019. The practical value of the study is the development of recommendations for the development of public policy in the field of improving QoL and the development of anti-crisis management in Kazakhstan. AcknowledgmentsThis study is supported by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan (targeted funding program BR10965247 “Study of factors, features and dynamics of demographic processes, migration, urbanization in Kazakhstan, development of digital maps and forecasts”).

Детерминанты демографических процессов в российской Арк­тике: факторный анализ

The purpose of the study was to identify, systematize and evaluate the influence of regional environmental factors on the dynamics of demographic processes in the Arctic regions of Russia. Based on the use of correlation and regression analysis the authors revealed highly differentiated relationships between indicators characterizing key demographic processes in the Arctic and factors of the regional environment. The established connections allow a deeper understanding of the factorial impact on the demographic processes in the Arctic, and develop adequate and adapted to the Arctic conditions of management measures.

DEPOPULATION OF THE POPULATION OF SIBERIA IN THE LIGHT OF THE RESETTLEMENT PROBLEM IN RUSSIA

Understanding the problem of depopulation in Siberia prompted the author to study the current demographic situation in the Siberian Federal District and the factors that determined it. The comparative analysis results of statistical information for individual regions of the Siberian Federal District allow us to speak of the so-called «Western drift», the result of which is the pulling of the country’s population to the central part of Russia, which exacerbates the resettlement problem. The dynamics of demographic processes in Siberia is characterized by a significant decline of the population and an increase in the demographic burden, which acts as a serious limiter on the potential for the reproduction of the population in Siberian region in future, contributing to socio-economic stagnation. Clearly realizing that the reasons for the population decline in Siberian Federal District depend on the socio-economic situation, the author focuses on studying the dynamics of the ratio of cash income and wages in the Siberian regions with the average Russian ones, showing that the disproportions that have existed for many years are not decreasing, but growing. As one of the reasons for the current situation the author considers the polarity of views of Russian power elite representatives on the resettlement problem.

Selection of the optimal neural network for analysis of the demographic situation

Demographic development has been a subject of study for many years, however, even during the prosperity of new technologies, there are phenomena that affect the demographic indicators of the whole world, and for which humanity is ready. Therefore, this work is devoted to the study and identification of the main factors affecting demographic processes, analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of existing tools and the actual modeling of demographic processes in Ukraine. The aim is to study the basics of forecasting demographic processes, modeling demographic processes. It provides an overview of some modern mathematical methods for describing dynamic processes, as well as methods of approximation and forecasting. The formation of a new national strategy aimed at human development, combined with unfavorable trends in the demographic reproduction of the population of Ukraine, determines the relevance of demographic research, the novelty is to consider the dynamics of demographic processes in the world, taking into account the latest events of 2020 and assess their impact on the population. Every citizen of his country influences its development. To be a global leader, a country needs a strong economy, which in turn depends on demographics. The latter play an outstanding role within the state and outside. The population size the desire to form something, more and improve the quality of the state clearly demonstrate, possible changes in the direction of the policy vector within the state. To avoid probable social, economic or other problems, it is necessary to monitor the demographic situation, namely, to carry out demographic analysis, which can further help prevent the problems mentioned above. This is often forgotten, which can lead to not very good consequences, up to a systematic decrease in the population. Therefore, it is necessary to make the right decisions in this direction to help the country develop. It is a good idea to build forecasting models that will help you generate demographic forecasts that can be used for further processing and analysis. If you define the problem in advance, you can prevent more global ones. Today there are various software applications that allow predicting processes. Everything that surrounds us is developing, especially the digital sphere, and now we have the opportunity to do more complex calculations and even more speed. The demographic processes are considered in the work, and also the basic signs influencing a demographic situation are allocated. A multilayer perceptron, which belongs to neural networks of the direct propagation type, was chosen for the work.

Historiography and empirical base of ethnodemographic studies of Ukrainians in the Republic of Moldova at the end of the XX – beginning of the XXI century

The article presents studies on demography in the Republic of Moldova in the late XX – early XXI century. It is noted that after 1991 the close attention of researchers, journalists, public organizations is focused on the problems of demography. The authors trace the dynamics of demographic processes in Moldova, determine the causes and possible consequences of negative processes, offer solutions to improve the situation. Conventionally, we can divide all publications into three categories: 1) works that consider the demographic situation and its dynamics in the country as a whole; 2) work on migration issues; 3) works on ethnodemography, i.e. dedicated to demographic processes in the environment of ethnic communities. However, there are not many special ethno-demographic studies on Ukrainians in Moldova. The article also discusses the main sources for ethnodemographic research: population censuses, current accounting of demographic events, special sample surveys, lists and registers of the population. An analysis of each group of sources is given from the point of view of their informativeness for a full-fledged ethno-demographic study of Ukrainians in Moldova

Analysis of Migration Processes and Recommendations on Regulation of Internal Migration from Southern to Northern Regions of Kazakhstan

Migration data is a useful tool for creating a single internal economic space that is harmoniously integrated with the global economy by helping to create conditions for the growth of economic and business activity of economic entities. Migration processes, primarily labour migration, are among the significant factors affecting the socio-economic situation both in the country as a whole and in its regions. This study discusses the following issues: state regulation of migration processes; statistical analysis and interpretation of data on internal migration from labour-surplus to labour-deficient regions. In order to achieve the objectives, the study uses statistical data on the inter-regional migration in the country; World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) indicators of social welfare; International Labour Organization’s (ILO’s) unemployment assessment; the dynamics of demographic processes in society. Following the findings, the study presents recommendations on the regulation of internal migration from southern to northern regions of Kazakhstan. Thus, the research results can be implemented when developing regulatory legal acts, migration management programmes, etc. The findings of this study can be used as a basis for assessing the dynamics of the social well-being of migrants in Central Asia.

ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ ЧИСЛЕННОСТИ И ВОЗРАСТНО-ПОЛОВОГО СОСТАВА НАСЕЛЕНИЯ Г. САМАРА В НАЧАЛЕ XXI ВЕКА

Priority for the analysis of General trends in the dynamics of demographic processes in the Russian Federation is the study of medical and demographic indicators in territories that are important for the effective functioning and development of territorial industrial complexes (productions). An in-depth study of the demographic situation in the city of Samara for the period 1990 to 2018 allows us to identify factors that affect the morbidity and mortality of the working-age population in the region, as well as to determine the current directions for improving and developing medical services.

ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В РОССИЙСКОЙ АРКТИКЕ В СВЕТЕ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ ПЕНСИОННОЙ РЕФОРМЫ

The purpose of the study, the results of which are presented in the article, is to analyze the demographic situation in the regions of the Russian Arctic in the light of the implementation of the pension reform. Among the tasks of the survey is the analysis of the settlement system and the dynamics of demographic processes, including the assessment of the relationship between changes in the retirement age and life expectancy of the population. The study was conducted on the basis of analytical materials, publications of specialized electronic publications on the subject under study, official data of Rosstat. It is determined that the arguments in favor of modern pension reform (increasing life expectancy and aging of the population) for the regions of the Russian Arctic are not decisive due to the short duration of healthy life, high mortality of the male working-age population, and low living standards of pensioners.

The reflection of demographic factor in regional programs of sustainable development (on the example of Lipetsk Region)

The demographic trends in social development have a basic foundation with regards to any other trends. Therefore, the management solutions aimed at rising birth rate, increasing longevity of life, and optimization of migration flows become an integral part of the federal and regional development strategies. Growing depopulation of the country actualizes studying of the problem of demographic development. The goal consists in substantiation and determination of the problematic aspects in the priority vectors of demographic development and tools of their implementation included into the Strategy of Socioeconomic Development of Lipetsk Region for the period until 2024. Analysis is conducted on the dynamics of demographic processes in Lipetsk Region for the period from 01.01.2017 to 01.01.2019. The author assesses the possibility of achieving target indicators of the regional development strategy by natural decline in population and size of population of Lipetsk Region of working age. The conclusion is substantiated on the inaccurate determination of regional demographic trends by the authorities in the current cycle; weak response to the regional demographic situation by making management decisions. The author proposes to modify the formulation of the goal of development strategy of Lipetsk Oblasts in demographic sphere.

Model of Increasing the Economic Affordability of Housing When Creating Housing Cooperative

The housing problem remains one of the most acute and socially significant, since the possibility of acquiring and improving housing conditions for citizens becomes difficult and impossible to achieve without state support. In particular, a decrease in housing affordability is associated with the quality and growth in the cost per square meter of housing, the tax burden and the annual increase in housing maintenance costs. Nevertheless, the main criterion characterizing the growth of reproduction and ensuring the comfort of living is the income level of the population. Housing is a social criterion and an indicator of the life quality of the population, affecting labor productivity, growth in gross domestic product, dynamics of demographic processes, and economic activity of the population. Undoubtedly, the availability of housing is the main indicator of the economic and social development of the state. Unfortunately, despite the positive dynamics of the housing affordability indicator, there are a number of problems that need to be addressed within the framework of the formation of comfortable housing. And also, it is necessary to introduce the affordability barriers to understand the complexity of creating an affordable housing market. In this article, the authors present a model for increasing housing affordability, taking into account an accurate assessment of the possibility of its acquisition. In addition, we offer a solution to this socio-economic problem by supporting the development of housing cooperation, which shall be expressed in the formation of new legal institutions and instruments that contribute to the guaranteed accumulation of funds by citizens for the acquisition of real estate.

The Solution of Environmental Problems and the Dynamics of Demographic Processes in Industrialized Regions

The article analyzes the relationship of solving environmental problems with the dynamics of demographic processes in industrialized regions. The attention is focused on the fact that social policy, development of social infrastructure, as well as its relevance depends on the demographic processes taking place at the regional level. Especially important to improve the legal framework for the development and disclosure of human potential, regional investment attractiveness, which will ultimately contribute to the stabilization of the demographic and socio-cultural situation both at the professional and daily levels. In this regard, attention is drawn to the fact that the disclosure of labor potential is impossible without taking into account the interests of the business community in educational technologies, in which, in the regional labor market, not only specialists with a narrow set of practical skills, but also with a wide range of fundamental training are in demand. The purpose of the development of the dominant regional segment of large business (coal companies, holdings, etc.) is the introduction of new technics, improvement of technologies, etc. in the field of mining and processing of minerals to level of competitive, environmentally «clean» product not only for foreign markets, but also for domestic consumers. The economic niche of small and medium-sized businesses are enterprises of social and infrastructure sectors of the economy. Related to this are issues of staffing, social and socio-cultural problems in the industrial development of the regions.

Социально-демографическая характеристика Ульяновской области во второй половине 1940-х годов: постановка проблемы в отечественной исторической науке

Various theoretical and conceptual approaches allowing to reconstruct demographic processes in the post-war Ulyanovsk region are considered. The author believes that in modern historiography there is no data on the demographic results of the Great Patriotic war, as well as the consequences that were caused by military aggression. It is argued that the dynamics of demographic processes in the post-war Ulyanovsk region was determined not only by direct military consequences, but also by general civilizational trends. It is pointed out, in particular, that the changes in the social space caused by modernization transformed the scale of values of a Soviet man, changed his attitude, worldview, family traditions. It is shown that the demographic transition, which ended in the USSR, was marked not only by an increase in life expectancy, but also by a decrease in the birth rate, which did not fully compensate for the demographic losses of the Soviet people. The author believes that an objective analysis of demographic processes in the post-war Ulyanovsk region is possible only in the framework of an integrated approach, namely, using the theoretical attitudes of supporters and opponents of the theory of “demographic transition.” It is noted that in this historical period the demographic processes depended on the state social policy.

Удосконалення механізму фінансового забезпечення сфери охорони здоров’я як пріоритету державного регулювання демографічного розвитку

In the article, on the basis of the conducted analysis, the situation has been developed to clarify the essence of state regulation of demographic development on the basis of specification of its features, in particular, through a direction such as health care. The methodical approach to improving the mechanism of financial support of health care sphere as a priority of state regulation of demographic development is substantiated. It is shown that the principal feature of state regulation of demographic development is the mediation of influence on the dynamics of demographic processes, in particular, through human behavior, through decisions in the sphere of marriage, the birth of children, the sphere of employment, the choice of profession, and health care. In this case, the mechanisms of state regulation determine the formation of demographic needs that determine the characteristics of demographic behavior, as well as the formation of conditions for their implementation through the health, education, social security, etc. Taking into account the aforesaid, the necessity of improving the mechanism of state regulation in the field of health as the main condition of demographic development that affects the protection and provision of reproductive rights of citizens, the formation of their reproductive needs (provision of professional medical and social assistance in matters of family planning, raising the level of quality, as well as the diversification of the types and forms of medical care for the family of reproductive age, informing the population about disease prevention and strengthening health) The choice is due to the fact that the sphere of healthcare combines both blocks of priority directions of development of state regulation of demographic processes, namely: maximizing the birth rate and minimizing mortality. The analysis revealed a significant limitation of the financial possibilities of state influence on demographic processes through the sphere of health care, which necessitates its optimization and the search for reserves for the use of financial and material resources. In this regard, the approach to improving the financing mechanism of the health care as a priority of state regulation of demographic development, which aims at ensuring socially justifiable distribution of funds, is substantiated and provides for: introduction of compulsory social health insurance; the implementation of balanced multi-channel and multi-level financing on the indicators of the level of income of patients (low, medium, high), the severity of diseases with their corresponding structuring (life threatening, infertility, disability, disability, worsening of living standards) to determine the sources of health care financing and how to combine them.

Dynamics of Demographic Processes in the Russian Far East as a Condition of Economic Development

The article considers the dynamics of demographic processes in the Russian Far East, formed in the post-Soviet period. Attention is paid to migration processes, which have the most significant impact on the reduction of the population in the region. Particular emphasis was placed on the loss of the Far East attractiveness for migrants; the territories of the Russian Federation, which are the most popular for migrants traveling outside the region, were noted. The external migration of the population is analyzed, it is noted that CIS migrants to some extent neutralize the negative migration balance of interregional migration flows, but, nevertheless, reduce their participation in the migration movement to the Far East of Russia. The role of migration with the countries of the Far abroad, migration interaction with which has acquired negative value, is analyzed. Analysis of migration processes and natural reproduction of the population revealed the presence of risks for the implementation of the program of the concept of demographic development of the Far East until 2025.

Asystent osoby starszej. Konieczność kształcenia do nowej specjalności w pracy socjalnej

Currently observed dynamics of demographic processes tends to take actions that would support implementation of the needs and expectations of older people. This applies both to state social policy, as well as the construction of educational programs that will help to prepare professionals to prevent seniors’ social exclusion. It cannot be done anyhow, because demographic changes we are witnessing imply a number of consequences of economic, social, cultural and educational, whose elements are elderly. The constantly growing number of elderly people and increasing their social activity caused a need for professional training of specialists in the field assistant for the elderly interdisciplinary wider understood as part of system of care and support of the elderly.

Main directions of development of the Baku urban agglomeration

An analysis is made of the historical development and formation of the major Baku urban agglomeration. The theoretical and methodological foundations of population distributions are considered, and an analysis is made of the influence of the natural, historical and economic factors on the formation of this region. The historical development of the major urban agglomeration and productive forces is investigated, which involves a high level of concentration of production and mining industries as well as with infrastructural development. A study is made of the dynamics of demographic processes, the characteristics of natural and migration movement of the population, and of the age/gender and marriage/family population composition which form the social-demographic structure of population and have an important practical significance in the determination of long-term development of the Baku agglomeration. The structural and dynamical formations of new settlements of Baku depended on their functional characteristics as well as on the distance from the center. An analysis is made of the Soviet and post-Soviet periods of population growth in the agglomeration. The dynamics of the demographic processes of the population in the agglomeration shows that the growth rates of the settlements in the outer zone are substantially higher than in Baku itself; therefore, pendulum migration is taking shape between the city and the suburb, which creates serious problems. Urbanization and its influence on the settlement process, and the problems of development of urban settlements are investigated. The ways of long-term socioeconomic development, and the transformation of the territorial organization of the Baku agglomeration are outlined. Also, an analysis is made of the population dynamics and formation of labor resources, and the problems of using and employing them in the region are considered. Based on the research done, recommendations are made for the regulation of demographic processes across the territory under investigation.

Региональные особенности медико-демографических процессов в Тверской области

To prevent the depopulation of indigenous people in the Tver region the dynamics of demographic processes from 1986 for 2012 was studied. Official data of Ministry of Health of the Tver region were used. The slowdown in the decrease of the population in Tver compared with the Tver region was identified. This is due to the replacement of labour migration. The region is characterized by the low level of birth and a high level of mortality including children´s and infantile. At the same time the tendency of approximation of medico-demographic indicators for national values is observed. In recent years, reducing child mortality from preventable causes is noted. According to revealed negative tendencies, the authors have developed and implemented interdepartmental medical-social model of prevention of reduction of the level of health in children in conditions of chronic social stress. To realize this model, the correctional and improving program for prophylaxis of risk of decreasing of health level in the children is offered. The program consists of two blocks: medical block is aimed at achieving the optimal level of the energy metabolism of the child; socio-psychological block - at improving the social adaptation of the child. The program is designed for physicians in primary care.

Dynamics of Demographic Processes: Problems and Forecast

Dynamics of Demographic Processes: Problems and Forecast

The depopulation of the Bulgarian villages

The depopulation of the Bulgarian villagesThe depopulation process in Bulgaria, especially in rural areas, is intensifying due to deepening unfavourable trends in the dynamics of demographic processes. Depopulation is a typical process in the fourth phase of demographic transition in rural areas of Bulgaria. The death rates exceed birth rates in the rural areas in the mid-1970s. The size of rural population and the number of villages in the country has been decreasing in the last decades. A large part of the villages were affected by depopulation processes during the period 1985-2007. A high depopulation level is observed in border and mountainous regions. The depopulation generates an array of different negative trends in the spatial aspect - in socio-economic development, technical and social infrastructure, as well as the erasure of many small villages. The regional development plans need to embed measures for infrastructural development in order to attract and retain residents, utilise natural and cultural-historical heritage, and to stimulate economic activities and the development of various types of tourism, etc.

Problems of Economic Demography

Economics and demography are closely interrelated. Essentially, the nature of the dynamics of demographic processes is determined by socioeconomic factors. In turn, demographic factors exert a substantial impact on the development of the economy. This attests to the advisability of establishing a special branch of science—economic demography. One of its most important problems is the study of the population's sex and age structure in connection with the development of production and consumption. Here, employment serves as the connecting link.