Dynamic Material Flow Analysis Research Articles

Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development

Chinese PV industry can be expected to grow rapidly of until 2050, driven by ongoing decarbonization of the energy mix. Such large-scale deployments generate significant increases in metal demand that may induce resource dilemmas. In this study, dynamic material flow analysis is combined with scenario analysis to estimate future metal demand from Chinese PV industry and complemented by a supply risk assessment. It is found that the maximum annual copper and silver demand up to 2050 equals 79.6% and 58.5% of China’s annual production in 2019. Similarly, the baseline scenario projects maximum annual demand of Tellurium and Indium corresponding to 598.1% and 161.8% of China’s annual production in 2019. Cumulative base metal demand by 2050 for China’s PV sector is 17.3–22.8 times that of in 2018, while cumulative silver demand increases by 4.5–6 times from 2018 to 2050. In the baseline scenario, cumulative byproduct metal demand by 2050 is 14–27.3 times larger than in 2018. High annual and cumulative supply pressures indicate not only the general scarcity of base, precious, and byproduct metals but also highlights the importance of building stable trade relationships for future PV developments in China. Two different measures are identified and assessed for reducing short- and long-term supply risks. Prolonging the lifetime from 25 to 30 years can achieve a cumulative metal conservation of 6.7–24.2%, while shorter lifetime will give rise to secondary supply if recycling technologies are implemented. A clean energy shift indicates that metal availability will become an important perspective for assessing energy security, implying that resource constraints should be considered in different planning levels for renewable energy developments. Strong interconnections between energy and metal supply chains indicate that coordination and holistic nexus views are required for achieving simultaneous sustainability in both systems.

Analyzing present and future availability of critical high-tech minerals in waste cellphones: A case study of India

Critical high-tech minerals (CHTMs) are raw materials that are essential for a future clean-energy transition and the manufacture of high-end products. Cellphones, one of the fastest growing electronic products, contain various CHTMs. Since 2019, India has surpassed the United States to become the second largest smartphone market in the world. An increasing and alarming number of excessive waste cellphones will be generated in India in the near future. In this study, the dynamic material flow analysis approach and the Weibull distribution are adopted to analyze the volumes of accumulated waste cellphones and the contained CHTMs based on the differentiation between smartphones and feature phones in India. Moreover, a market supply model is adopted to predict the future trends of CHTMs in waste cellphones. The results show a general upward tendency of waste cellphone volume in India, which indicates that various CHTMs contained in cellphone waste can be properly reused or recycled. Future implications based on the analysis results are provided for efficient cellphone management in India.

Material flow analysis of plastic in organic waste in Switzerland

AbstractSoils have been shown to be a major sink for plastic that is released to the environment. Several agricultural practices have been identified that can result in large plastic flows onto soils, among them the use of plastic‐polluted compost and digestate. However, the magnitude of this flow is currently still unclear. The aim of this work was to quantify the flows of plastic with compost and digestate onto soils based on data from Switzerland using material flow analysis (MFA). Input data to the model were based on published data on organic waste management and plastic content in compost. In order to quantify the plastic in the biomass input, measurements were made at an anaerobic digestion plant. Together with published data on the plastic content in compost, the full fate of plastic in organic waste in Switzerland could be obtained from 1985 to 2017. 6,300 t year−1 of plastic enter the system together with organic waste, and 6,200 t year−1 are removed and are incinerated. 34.5 ± 7.1 t year−1 are contained in the solid digestate, 50 ± 11 t year−1 in compost, 12.4 ± 3 t year−1 in windrow compost and 2.0 ± 0.4 t year−1 in solid digestate from codigestion. Overall, 71 ± 11 t year−1 of plastic are transferred to agricultural soil, 22.4 ± 3.3 t year−1 to horticulture and 3.6 ± 0.7 t year−1 to private consumers. Using dynamic MFA, we predict that 1,390 ± 390 tonnes of plastic have accumulated in Swiss soils through compost addition since 1985. These values can serve as basis for evaluating the contribution of composting to the plastic pollution in soils.

The living, the dead, and the obsolete: A characterization of lifetime and stock of ICT products in Denmark

Understanding how long information and communications technology (ICT) products are used, when they are disposed of, and underlying drivers for consumer behavior, play a defining role in the potential success of current and future policy strategies on circularity in the electronics sector. In this study, we explored the service life and storage stages of four types of ICT products in Denmark, namely mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and desktop personal computers (PCs), using dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) with sales-stock-lifetime reconciliation capability. Further, we characterized the stock of products in Denmark and its dynamics from 1990 to 2018, and extract evidence on how obsolescence and technological shifts affect product service life. Results showed that the active use stock of analyzed ICT products has either stabilized (mobile phones, laptops, tablets) or is decreasing (feature phones, desktop PCs). The dead storage stock of smartphones, laptops and tablets continues to expand and in 2018 accounted for 30% of their combined total stock. Results highlight that the technological shift from feature phones to smartphones was likely accompanied by a drop in mobile phone service lifetime from 3 years to around 2 years between 2008 and 2012. Furthermore, our results suggest that product physical obsolescence was not the main driver for the length of service life, while intangible product qualities may play a significant role.

Dynamic material flow analysis of critical metals for lithium-ion battery system in China from 2000–2018

Lithium and cobalt are key raw materials for the production of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). This study illustrates the evolution of lithium and cobalt metabolism in the LIB system in China by applying dynamic bottom-up material flow analysis. From 2000 to 2018, the consumption of LIBs increased from 1.4 kt (0.2 GWh) to 547.1 kt (102.9 GWh) in China. The cumulative consumption of lithium and cobalt for LIB production was 61.8 kt and 247.6 kt, respectively. From 2000 to 2014, the popularization of mobile phones and laptops promoted the consumption of lithium and cobalt. After 2015, electric automobiles gradually became a major driving force for the growth of lithium and cobalt consumption. The increasing use of LIBs resulted in the growth of in-use stocks of lithium and cobalt from 0.03 kt and 0.2 kt in 2000 to 17.5 kt and 31.0 kt in 2018, respectively. Meanwhile, end-of-life (EOL) LIBs were rapidly generated, with the increase from 0.1 kt/yr to 110.7 kt/yr. In 2018, 0.4 kt of lithium and 3.1 kt of cobalt were recovered from these EOL LIBs in 2018, which provided 4.2% and 12.8% of the lithium and cobalt supplies for new LIBs, respectively. Besides, 1.1 kt of EOL LFP batteries were used in echelon utilization in 2018. Based on the results, some recommendations were proposed for the sustainable development and waste management of LIB industries, including encouraging the innovation of LIB technology and combining multiple technologies, strengthening closed-loop management of LIBs, and promoting echelon utilization of EOL LIBs.

Electronic waste in the Caribbean: An impending environmental disaster or an opportunity for a circular economy?

Islands are bounded systems, often plagued with several sustainability challenges of limited land and resource availability, as well as pressing waste management issues. Despite these known problems, research aiming to help develop proper e-waste management systems for small island nations is scarce. Focusing on five Caribbean island states, this study provides the first comprehensive view of e-waste generation trends in an island context and explores the factors driving those trends. The study estimates Electrical and Electronic Equipment (EEE) flows for the five island cases over a period of 60 years (1965–2025), including e-waste that these flows have and will generate. A dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) approach has been used to estimate these flows and stocks for 206 product types. The results show that the five Caribbean islands produced double the e-waste per capita per year, i.e., 13 kg/cap/year compared to global average of 6.1 kg/cap/year in 2016. The aggregated amount of e-waste generated per year on these five islands seems to significantly rise in future: from 27,500 tonnes in 2010 to an estimated amount of 59,000 tonnes in 2025. This considerable estimated e-waste generation rate, when not properly managed, is not only harmful for the local environment, but also translates into considerable health impacts and loss of valuable resources. From a sustainability perspective, small islands should consider moving away from a linear to a circular economy that will limit waste generation as well as reliance on the supply of virgin materials from outside.

End-of-life passenger vehicles recycling decision system in China based on dynamic material flow analysis and life cycle assessment

China’s automobile industry is developing rapidly, but the recycling rate of end-of-life vehicles has been low. In 2018, the recovery rate of end-of-life passenger vehicles was less than 18% of the scrapped amount. Dynamic material flow analysis can predict the amount of end-of-life passenger cars in China in the future, and analyze the flow of materials in recycling system. Life cycle assessment can be used to quantify greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this paper integrates these two methods into the model construction of recycling decision system. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis of the important factors affecting the efficiency of the recovery system is carried out. Finally, the main recovery indexes of the system are predicted under three scenarios: low-speed, medium speed and high-speed development, which are set based on scrap volume, standard recovery rate, proportion of assembly into remanufacturing and carbon tax price. The research results show that in 2018, 656.9 kg/vehicle of iron, 150.2 kg/vehicle of aluminum and 7.9 kg/vehicle of copper are recovered from end-of-life passenger car in China, and the carbon emission during the recovery process is 651.1 kg of CO2eq/vehicle, with a total emission reduction of 3816.1 kgCO2eq/vehicle compared with the original production, and the economic benefit is about 5055.5 yuan/vehicle. The scenario prediction results show that by 2050, from the low-speed development scenario to the high-speed development scenario, the total amount of iron, aluminum and copper recovered rise from 3.96 million tons, 915 thousand tons and 46 thousand tons to 697 thousand tons, 1.61 million tons and 80 thousand tons respectively throughout the year. The carbon emission in the recovery process rise from 4.98 thousand tons to 9.32 million tons. Compared with the original production, the carbon emission reduction increases from 2.21 million tons to 38.3 million tons, the economic benefit increases from 58.9 billion yuan to 118.8 billion yuan, and the comprehensive benefit increases from 57 billion yuan to 111.6 billion yuan.

Dynamic material flow analysis of polyvinyl chloride resin and additives in China

Dynamic material flow analysis of polyvinyl chloride resin and additives in China

Static and Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers from End-of-Life Televisions by Life Cycle

Static and Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers from End-of-Life Televisions by Life Cycle

Linking service provision to material cycles: A new framework for studying the resource efficiency–climate change (RECC) nexus

AbstractMaterial production accounts for 23% of all greenhouse gas emissions. More efficient use of materials—through decoupling of services that support human well‐being from material use—is imperative as other emission mitigation options are expensive. An interdisciplinary scientific assessment of material efficiency and its links to service provision, material cycle management, and climate policy is needed to identify effective strategies and help design the policy framework required for their implementation. We present the resource efficiency–climate change (RECC) mitigation framework, a first step toward such a comprehensive assessment. RECC is based on dynamic material flow analysis and links the services provided (individual motorized transport and shelter) to the operation of in‐use stocks of products (passenger vehicles and residential buildings), to their expansion and maintenance, and to their material cycles to model mitigation strategies and analyze trade‐offs for environmental impacts along the products’ life cycle. A key innovation of RECC is the upscaling of product archetypes with different degrees of material and energy efficiency, which are simulated with engineering tools. We utilize RECC with augmented storylines of the shared socioeconomic pathways to describe future service demand and associated material requirements. Ten material efficiency strategies at different stages of the material cycle can be assessed by ramping up their implementation rates to the identified technical potentials. RECC provides scenario results for the life cycle impacts of ambitious service–material decoupling concurrent with energy system decarbonization, giving detailed insights on the RECC mitigation nexus to policy‐makers worldwide.

Potential of urban cobalt mines in China: An estimation of dynamic material flow from 2007 to 2016

The development of clean energy and high-tech materials is prospering. Cobalt, an indispensable material in this process, has drawn attention worldwide. China has a high demand for cobalt; the uncertainty of raw material supply and increasing domestic demand for cobalt may trigger a severe cobalt crisis in China. Thus, increasing urban mining may be essential for securing cobalt. This study analysed the changes in China's in-use stock of cobalt over 10 years using dynamic material flow analysis. We modelled the material flow cycle of China's cobalt in 2007–2016. Scenario analysis was conducted to estimate the potential of urban cobalt mines in China in 2007–2016, considering the final cobalt-bearing product lifespan distributions; the recycling rate of cobalt waste; and ideal (A1, A2), intermediate (B1, B2, C1, C2) and poor (D1, D2) scenarios. In 2007–2016, China's in-use stock of cobalt reached 115,100 tons (68.45% from batteries and 15.24% from superalloys). In the eight scenarios, the potential of China's urban cobalt mines was 78,800–186,500 tons. China's urban cobalt mines have great potential, but the actual exploitable volume is low, mainly due to the low overall recycling efficiency of domestic cobalt waste, e.g., the recycling rate of waste lithium-ion batteries is less than 10%. A frame of influencing factors for cobalt recycling was proposed, and the actual exploitable volume of China's urban cobalt mines in 2007–2016 was evaluated to be 30,700–60,700 tons. Policymakers should introduce effective policies to encourage cobalt recycling and increase awareness of recycling in the long run.

Dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis of engineered nanomaterials in European waste treatment systems

Knowledge on the material flows of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is crucial for assessing their environmental risks. Waste management processes constitute important parts of material flow analyses as they affect large fractions of the ENMs. Accordingly, their detailed representation could substantially improve the models. Our goal was to consider the temporal variations of wastewater and solid waste management in the dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis of carbon nanotubes (CNTs), nano-Ag, -TiO2 and -ZnO in Europe from 2000 to 2020. New input parameters included wastewater and solid waste management rates for each year. The uncertainties associated with these data were assessed based on the type of consulted source, the geographical representativeness and temporal concordance. Results show modal values of 10–27% of ENMs going from sorting to reprocessing. Large shares of environmental releases of nano-Ag and nano-ZnO end in surface water (4.9 t and 1700 t respectively in 2020), while sludge-treated soil as environmental compartment is receiving most of nano-TiO2 (22,000 t in 2020) and CNTs (8.8 t in 2020). Discharges from wastewater management to the subsurface soil make this compartment the largest environmental sink of nano-Ag and nano-ZnO (30 t and 3860 t accumulated in 2020, respectively). Landfills represent significant stocks of ENMs, with 105 t, 2077 t, 69,000 t and 1042 t of nano-Ag, nano-ZnO, nano-TiO2 and CNTs. This model includes detailed descriptions of waste management and sources of ENMs released at the European scale. However, a better understanding of the behaviour, i.e. fate and potential transformations of ENMs in reprocessing systems, is needed to complete the full assessment.

Copper-induced ripple effects by the expanding electric vehicle fleet: A crisis or an opportunity

Copper is an essential element for electric vehicle (EV). Currently, little efforts have been directed toward understanding the EV-copper-resource-environment nexus. Autoregressive integrated moving average model combined with dynamic material flow analysis was developed for the nexus analysis in Fujian in China due to its vigorous EV promotion. Results showed that standardized passenger vehicle ownership would increase 3.34 times from 2018 to the peak year 2042, with about 12 times’ and 139 times’ increase of EV sales in baseline and aggressive scenarios respectively. Accordingly, EV-induced additional copper demand in Fujian would increase the same times as EV sales since 2018, leading to the expansion of copper processing that would incur increasing ripple effects, including 1) aggressive scenario's accumulative additional copper ore demand during 2013-2050 exceed 40 times Chinese reserve in 2016; 2) about 62% of on-road EV's CO2eq reduction compared with Fuel vehicle would be offset by CO2 emissions from baseline scenario's additional copper processing under Chinese power structure in 2018. Additionally, many other pollutants will also increasingly be emitted in response to the growing EV-induced additional materials’ processing, which can further extend ripple effects from local to global environment, and finally threaten global sustainability. The ripple effects indicated the importance of pyramid tip product catalog pedigree to promote international cooperation in products’ lifecycle management and extend cleaner production to cleaner consumption, efficient fleet cleaner production technologies, longer products’ lifespan, circular design, and cleaner power supply.

Material stocks and flows of power infrastructure development in China

As the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases with a dominant share of coal-fired power, China is expecting a continuous clean power transition in the next decades. However, the development of power generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure requires significant amount of construction materials, therefore an understanding of the corresponding materials demand and waste generation would be important. In this paper, we deployed a dynamic, bottom-up, and technology-specific material flow analysis approach to characterize the stocks and flows of four major construction materials (cement, steel, aluminum, and copper) associated with China's power infrastructure development from 1980 to 2050. We found that the material stocks of China's power infrastructure have increased from 30 ± 4 Mt in 1980 to 573 ± 91 Mt in 2018 (an annual growth rate of 7.7%) and will further increase to 1188 Mt and 1487 Mt in 2050, respectively, in the two energy development scenarios we constructed. While thermal and hydro power contributed the most to stocks growth in the past two decades, solar and wind power are expected to contribute more in the future. A more metal-intensive energy future is foreseen due to increasing use of steel and aluminum in renewable energy generation and use of copper and aluminum in power transmission and distribution. These patterns reflect the physical material basis of China's power transition and call for better understanding of the energy-material nexus for addressing the dual challenge of satisfying growing materials demand and addressing increasing amount of waste and environmental impacts in the next decades.

Mapping provincial steel stocks and flows in China: 1978–2050

China’s unprecedented industrialization and urbanization have boosted tremendous steel use nationwide, making it the global largest steel producer and consumer. However, there is a limited knowledge on the historical evolution and future transitions of China’s provincial steel use, which prohibits more specific resource management policies. We applied dynamic material flow analysis to estimate and predict the provincial steel stocks and flows during 1978–2050 in 31 provinces of mainland China, with a bottom-up data collection on over 100 categories of steel-containing products. We find steel stocks have reached 5.9 ± 1.5 tons per capita (t/cap) in 2018, and identify a significant gradient decline of steel stocks from eastern coastal regions to western inland regions. By 2050, steel stocks will be around 12.3 Gt, ranging from 9.3 Gt to 15.3 Gt. It is expected that the regional disparity of steel stocks will be narrowed in the near future. Our spatial analysis reveals the coming steel demand peak occurring during 2016–2022 and scrap boom after 2030. However, such patterns differ among provinces. The scrap in some eastern provinces will exceed demand around 2030, while central and western provinces will become larger suppliers of scrapped steel after 2040. China should tailor its circular economy policies to local and inter-regional levels to boost inter-regional scrap circulation for more sustainable and balanced development.

Refining the understanding of China's tungsten dominance with dynamic material cycle analysis

Tungsten is deemed a critical raw material by many nations, given its irreplaceable use in industrial and military applications. In particular, much concern has been drawn to China's high share in global tungsten supply. While various studies have focused on the criticality of tungsten, few have specifically explored how tungsten is produced, consumed, and traded. In this paper, the dynamic material flow analysis is applied to quantify China's annual tungsten cycle from 1949 – 2017. It is estimated that total tungsten mined from ores in China over the past 68-year period is ~2500 kilo-tons (kt). Among those, ~750 kt of tungsten has been exported to other countries, and around 970 kt tungsten is domestically consumed. It is noted ≈1720 kt has been lost from mining, production, and end-of-life stage, and merely ~130 kt has been recycled as end-of-life scrap. Our material flow analysis further refined China's tungsten dominance. Although China currently dominates the global production of tungsten, this dominance will not extend too far into the future given China's limited share of world tungsten reserves and its declining ore quality. Our trade flow analysis reveals that China imported ~35 kt of high value-added downstream tungsten products from outside manufacturers, whose mineral resource was originally imported from China. At present, China by itself is experiencing overcapacity issues in the primary production, which discourages the recycling of at end-of-life (EoL) stage and makes the EoL recycling rate only 10%. It is noted that the percentage of Chinese tungsten for domestic consumption has been increasing in the past few years. This highlights the need for systematic measures from stakeholders along the tungsten cycle to promote sustainable practices for efficient tungsten production, use, and recycling in China. Meanwhile, the results also suggest the importance of monitoring the criticality of tungsten and other critical minerals from a dynamic and material cycle perspective.

Effects of car electronics penetration, integration and downsizing on their recycling potentials

Abstract Car electronics form an extensive yet untapped source for secondary critical raw materials. To seize their recycling potentials it is imperative to understand how the number and volumes of car electric and electronic (EE) devices are affected by trends in: i) car typology, ii) penetration and integration of automobile electronic control systems (AECS), and iii) unit mass of EE devices. We used a layered dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) incorporating comprehensive data series to analyze the aforementioned trends and their influence on end-of-life mass flows of two automobile EE devices in Switzerland over the period 1975 to 2015. We found that there has been an increased penetration of the EE devices coinciding with a replacement of unifunctional devices by multifunctional ones (integration) and a decrease in their unit mass (downsizing). Both penetration and unit mass changed most rapidly in the 1990s and have flattened after the year 2000. Penetration outweighed integration and downsizing, so that before stabilizing, it caused a rapid increase in the mass flows of the EE devices. Due to the long lifetime of cars, changes in penetration, integration and downsizing are still evident at the end-of-life flows, but can be expected to slow down considerably between 2015 and 2025. The results demonstrate that monitoring of the trends at the car inflow, in combination with a dynamic MFA, can be used to anticipate changes in end-of-life flows 10–20 years before they occur and to timely inform recycling policies.

The potential for material circularity and independence in the U.S. steel sector

AbstractAchieving a U.S. circular economy would reduce environmental impacts and increase material independence. This article calculates maximum recycled contents (RCs) and recycling rates (RRs) in an independent U.S. steel sector, and estimates the potential to displace current imports with recycled scrap that is currently destined for landfill, hibernating stocks, or export (LHSE). A U.S. dynamic material flow analysis (1880–2100) is conducted to estimate annual steel consumption and scrap generation. The results are coupled with a linear optimization model that minimizes primary steel demand while satisfying the volumetric and compositional demands of new consumption. The compositional analysis examines only copper content because it is of greatest concern to recyclers.The best estimate is that the maximum independent RR is already constrained by copper contamination. Without interventions, this maximum RR will gradually decline throughout the century. The annual consumption to scrap availability ratio (C2SR) will decrease from around 1.4 today. Concurrently, the maximum RC rises but then plateaus below 75% as the RR falls. This highlights a conflict in the conditions for a circular economy: a C2SR approaching unity is a necessary condition for a high RC but leads to fewer opportunities for scrap contaminant dilution, which decreases the RR. Improved product design for recycling and deployment of scrap refining technologies will be needed to reach higher RCs. In 2017, the mass of U.S. scrap destined for LHSE exceeded direct steel imports. Domestic recycling of scrap exports alone could have displaced 36% of direct steel imports, reducing the U.S. deficit by $5.5 billion.

The role of cement service-life on the efficient use of resources

The high demand for cement-based materials to support building and infrastructure systems is of growing concern as the production of cement leads to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and notable resource demand. While improved efficiency of cement use has been proposed as a means to mitigate these burdens, the effects of increasing longevity of cement in-use remains a poorly studied area. This work quantitatively explores the implications of using cement for a longer in-use residence times. Specifically, this work uses dynamic material flow analysis models to quantify the in-use stock of cement in the United States from 1900 to 2015. With these models, the implications of increasing or decreasing mean longevity of in-use cement on required cement production, demand for batching water, aggregates, and energy for cement-based materials, and GHG emissions are quantified. This work shows that a 50% increase in cement longevity could have led to a 14% reduction in material resource demand and GHG emissions from concrete production in the United States, equivalent to 0.28 to 0.83 Gt of batching water, 2.9 to 7.6 Gt of aggregates, 1E + 06 to 2.3E + 06 TJ of energy, and 0.4 to 0.7 Gt of CO2-eq emissions. This percent reduction exceeds goals for reducing GHG emissions through alternative energy resources, suggesting improving durability and longevity of in-use cement stock could be a critical means to mitigating environmental impacts.

Dynamic material flow and stock analysis of residential buildings by integrating rural–urban land transition: A case of Shanghai

In rapidly developing countries, such as China, considerable quantities of construction materials have been mobilized with the fast expansion of urban areas. The rural to urban land use transition, especially the upgrade and redevelopment of original rural areas, is a noted driver of material flows. This rural–urban land transition should be incorporated into material flow and stock analyses to provide a more accurate analysis. In this study, a dynamic material flow and stock model that integrates the historical rural–urban land transition was developed to explore the quantity of material stocks and demolition waste from residential buildings in Shanghai—the largest megacity in China from 1950 to 2100. Our results show that the material stocks from residential buildings in Shanghai increased 41-fold from 1950 to 2010, about 957 MMT (million metric tons), and is estimated to be saturated around 2040. Material stocks have experienced asynchronized growth in rural areas, central urban areas, and rural–urban land transition zones (RULT zones) in Shanghai. Until 2040, the RULT zones in Shanghai will be the largest material repository (62%), followed by central urban areas (20%), and rural areas (18%). The amount of demolition waste, which accounted for 10 MMT in 2010, is expected to peak at 29 MMT in 2060s. This suggests the need for a deliberate investment plan to increase waste treatment capacity. In addition, the dominant component of demolition waste will shift from brick to concrete after 2020s. The RULT zones will contribute two-thirds of demolition waste to Shanghai until the 2060s. If we do not consider the reality of the physical status of buildings in RULT zones, the demolition waste will be underestimated by the maximum of 57% in 2003 in urban areas. The key findings on the trend of construction and demolition (C&D) waste generation and the significant contribution of RULT zones can be used as a reference for the strategic planning of treatment facilities. This research framework can be also used to estimate the amount of C&D waste in other fast-developing cities in China and other countries.