Potential of urban cobalt mines in China: An estimation of dynamic material flow from 2007 to 2016

Abstract

The development of clean energy and high-tech materials is prospering. Cobalt, an indispensable material in this process, has drawn attention worldwide. China has a high demand for cobalt; the uncertainty of raw material supply and increasing domestic demand for cobalt may trigger a severe cobalt crisis in China. Thus, increasing urban mining may be essential for securing cobalt. This study analysed the changes in China's in-use stock of cobalt over 10 years using dynamic material flow analysis. We modelled the material flow cycle of China's cobalt in 2007–2016. Scenario analysis was conducted to estimate the potential of urban cobalt mines in China in 2007–2016, considering the final cobalt-bearing product lifespan distributions; the recycling rate of cobalt waste; and ideal (A1, A2), intermediate (B1, B2, C1, C2) and poor (D1, D2) scenarios. In 2007–2016, China's in-use stock of cobalt reached 115,100 tons (68.45% from batteries and 15.24% from superalloys). In the eight scenarios, the potential of China's urban cobalt mines was 78,800–186,500 tons. China's urban cobalt mines have great potential, but the actual exploitable volume is low, mainly due to the low overall recycling efficiency of domestic cobalt waste, e.g., the recycling rate of waste lithium-ion batteries is less than 10%. A frame of influencing factors for cobalt recycling was proposed, and the actual exploitable volume of China's urban cobalt mines in 2007–2016 was evaluated to be 30,700–60,700 tons. Policymakers should introduce effective policies to encourage cobalt recycling and increase awareness of recycling in the long run.