Dynamic Economic Model Research Articles

Dynamic Economic Dispatch Model of Microgrid Containing Energy Storage Components Based on a Variant of NSGA-II Algorithm

With the development of microgrid, in order to improve the economy of the microgrid and intelligent service of electric power marketing, the proper management of the output of micro-source in microgrid and power exchange between grids is an urgent problem to be solved. Considering the interests of multiple stakeholders, such as users, power grids, renewable energy and battery, a dynamic economic dispatch model of microgrid is proposed in this paper based on time-of-use power price mechanism. Using a variant of Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA)-II algorithm, at the same time, an external penalty function is introduced to deal with the constraint conditions, which is convenient for solving multi-objective optimization models. Based on the data of load forecasting and renewable energy output in microgrid, the function of battery and time-of-use power price mechanism is considered to optimize the output of controllable micro-source in the system, in order to achieve the optimization of microgrid dispatch. The model established in this paper considers the overall economic optimization of multi-objective and multi-interest groups within the microgrid, and hence, can get a more comprehensive and reasonable scheduling scheme. It provides effective help for the operation of micro grid system, and realizes the electric power marketing for demand side, so as to provide help for improving the power marketing’s economy and intelligent service.

Look ahead dynamic security-constrained economic dispatch considering frequency stability and smart loads

Conventional economic dispatch models aim to determine the optimal production of generation units under the steady state operation constraints. Due to the growing integration of low inertia power generation technologies (e.g. wind, solar, etc.), considering stability constraints, in particular, frequency stability, a theme of this work, becomes a crucial need in nowadays security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED) programs. This paper develops a new look ahead dynamic (i.e. multi-period) security-constrained economic dispatch model, further considering frequency stability constraints (DSCED-FSC). The aim of the DSCED-FSC is to optimize the cost of power generation subject to operation and frequency stability constraints under normal and contingency conditions. The proposed DSCED-FSC secures N-1 contingencies for both thermal limits and frequency stability. The system frequency response is included in DSCED-FSC model by linearizing the discretized rotor angle swing equation. The dynamic models of governors and load damping are considered in the discretized system frequency response. The safety of system frequency response under generation outages is provided by activating generators' governors, inertial response and load damping as the primary frequency reserve. In addition to primary frequency reserve, the demand elasticity of smart motor loads is utilized to avoid the activation of under frequency load shedding (UFLS) relays under severe generation outages. The proposed DSCED-FSC model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem. The nonlinear AC power flow equations are linearized using Taylor series expansions and piecewise linear (PWL) approximation techniques. The efficacy of the proposed DSCED-FSC model in supporting system frequency is investigated using the IEEE 118-bus test system.

Strong convergence and dynamic economic models

Morton and Wecker (1977) stated that the value iteration algorithm solves a dynamic program's policy function faster than its value function when the limiting Markov chain is ergodic. I show that their proof is incomplete, and provide a new proof of this classic result. I use this result to accelerate the estimation of Markov decision processes and the solution of Markov perfect equilibria. Markov decision process Markov perfect equilibrium strong convergence relative value iteration dynamic discrete choice nested fixed point nested pseudo‐likelihood C01 C13 C15 C61 C63 C65

Recursive Contracts

We obtain a recursive formulation for a general class of optimization problems with forward‐looking constraints which often arise in economic dynamic models, for example, in contracting problems with incentive constraints or in models of optimal policy. In this case, the solution does not satisfy the Bellman equation. Our approach consists of studying a recursive Lagrangian. Under standard general conditions, there is a recursive saddle‐point functional equation (analogous to a Bellman equation) that characterizes a recursive solution to the planner's problem. The recursive formulation is obtained after adding a co‐state variable μ t summarizing previous commitments reflected in past Lagrange multipliers. The continuation problem is obtained with μ t playing the role of weights in the objective function. Our approach is applicable to characterizing and computing solutions to a large class of dynamic contracting problems.

The feasibility study of investment in public hospital construction project using the real options model.

BACKGROUND:The investment decision can be affected by changing levels of uncertainty and risk. The main objective of this research was to identify, characterize, and quantify the parameters which are essential in evaluation hospital construction projects and provide useful modeling techniques to give the best investment decisions for investors in Iran's health-care projects investment.MATERIALS AND METHODS:The methodology of this study was employing discounted cash flow (DCF) and real option valuation to investigate the feasibility investment in the public hospital construction project. The Islamshahr, Mashhad, and Fardis hospitals were included in the analysis. Economic indices of DCF methods were internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value.RESULTS:The economic evaluation of the Black–Scholes model was almost as same as the binomial tree model, but there was a significant difference between the real options model and traditional methods. According to the traditional methods, the profitability with IRR for Islamshahr, Mashhad, and Fardis hospital projects was 35%, 43%, and 26%, respectively. Black–Scholes model showed profitability only for Islamshahr and Mashhad hospitals, and there was no adequate profitability for investors of Fardis Hospital project during the study.CONCLUSIONS:The methods derived from the real options valuation could provide a more flexible and reliable indices for investors in dynamic and high revolution economic conditions. On the other hand, dynamic economic evaluation models can be applied to correctly evaluate the projects because of Iran's health revolution and its health plans.

Parallelization Overhead and HPC-Efficient Programming

Easier access to high-performance computing (HPC) systems has enabled parallel computing to become more ubiquitous in numerically solving dynamic economic models. Nevertheless, with little understanding of computer architectures and parallel computing algorithms, executing a program with a large number of cores could result in a significant slowdown rather than a speedup. This study exploits new measure—parallelization overhead—to explicitly quantify the size of the inefficiency that predominantly arises from communication overhead and load imbalances in parallel computing. Further, we demonstrate three programming techniques for an HPC-efficient parallel program that effectively reduces the parallelization overhead.

Low-carbon power dispatch with wind power based on carbon trading mechanism

Low-carbon power dispatching with wind power has been attracting increasing attention recently, whereas it also encounters some difficulties under carbon trading mechanism, such as the resistance to carbon emission reduction, the fairness of carbon trading, and the disturbance of wind power uncertainty. For harmonizing these contradictions, this paper presents a stochastic dynamic economic dispatch model focusing on wind power uncertainty and carbon emission rights simultaneously, which tries to minimize total electrical energy costs under uncertainty, and to meet the specific requirement of carbon emission reductions. Moreover, several traditional allocation methods for initial carbon emission rights emphasizing the equality are introduced, and the uncertainty characterizations of wind power are discussed through the scenario-generation technique. The simulation results eventually demonstrate that the operating cost for non-cooperative mode cannot be optimized as the ratio of carbon emission reductions rises; carbon trading mechanism is beneficial for lower cost under the pressure of carbon emission reduction; carbon price ranges that suit both carbon trading parties could be deduced. Synthesizing wind power uncertainty and carbon emission rights, this study is helpful for allocating the load demand of wind power integrated system to each generating unit more scientifically and reasonably based on carbon trading mechanism.

Assessing the Interrelation between Socio-Economic and Innovative-Technological Development, Institutional Conditions and Urbanization Processes in the Resource-Based Regions Using Dynamic Economic and Statistical Models

Assessing the Interrelation between Socio-Economic and Innovative-Technological Development, Institutional Conditions and Urbanization Processes in the Resource-Based Regions Using Dynamic Economic and Statistical Models

Distributionally robust dynamic economic dispatch model with conditional value at risk recourse function

Distributionally robust dynamic economic dispatch model with conditional value at risk recourse function

PRM131 - HEPATITIS C VIRUS ELIMINATION AND ERADICATION MODELS: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is an achievable goal due to highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. Between 2015-2030, WHO targets globally 1) reduction in new HCV infections by 80%; 2) reduction in HCV deaths by 65%; 3) increase in HCV diagnoses from <5% to 90%; 4) increase in HCV treatment among eligible persons from <1% to 80%. The aim of this study was to systematically review the modeling approaches and results of full-economic evaluations targeting the elimination or eradication of HCV in any geographical setting. By using Scopus and OVID databases a systematic review of English-language articles published between January 2010 and October 2017 was performed, as the appearance of DAAs made the elimination or eradication of HCV a realistic goal after 2010. Data on country setting, modeling approach and results of the observed scenarios were extracted. A total of 504 articles were identified. After title/abstract and full text screening 4 studies were included into the review. These studies used dynamic economic models, compared at least four scenarios, and reported data on the treated patient numbers, total cost of the scenarios, prevalence and/or incidence reduction of HCV and mortality reduction in percentage or absolute numbers. Three of the included studies employed backward calculation to recommend strategies to reach at least one WHO HCV elimination target, the fourth study examined the impact of specific scenarios on HCV elimination and did not consider the WHO targets. Only a limited number of economic analyses were carried out to investigate the consequences of the elimination or eradication of HCV. Our findings suggest that high utilization rate of DAA therapies could help to eradicate HCV infection. However, even with unlimited number of treatment courses, interventions to improve the diagnostics and cascade of care are also required to achieve WHO HCV elimination targets.

Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change

In addition to expanding agricultural land area and intensifying crop yields, increasing the global trade of agricultural products is one mechanism that humanity has adopted to meet the nutritional demands of a growing population. However, climate change will affect the distribution of agricultural production and, therefore, food supply and global markets. Here we quantify the structural changes in the global agricultural trade network under the two contrasting greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by coupling seven Global Gridded Crop Models and five Earth System Models to a global dynamic economic model. Our results suggest that global trade patterns of agricultural commodities may be significantly different from today’s reality with or without carbon mitigation. More specifically, the agricultural trade network becomes more centralised under the high CO2 emissions scenario, with a few regions dominating the markets. Under the carbon mitigation scenario, the trade network is more distributed and more regions are involved as either importers or exporters. Theoretically, the more distributed the structure of a network, the less vulnerable the system is to climatic or institutional shocks. Mitigating CO2 emissions has the co-benefit of creating a more stable agricultural trade system that may be better able to reduce food insecurity.

Structural Loop Analysis of Complex Ecological Systems

Ecosystems are complex and dynamic making them challenging to understand. We urgently need to assess human impacts on ecosystems which cause changes in structural feedbacks producing large, hard to reverse changes in state and functioning. System dynamics has proven to be a useful and versatile methodology for modelling complex systems given the comparative ease with which feedback loops can be modelled. However, a common issue arises when models become too large and structurally complex to understand the causal drivers of system behaviour. There is a need for an intermediate level of analysis capable of identifying causal driving structures and dynamics, regardless of model complexity. This study investigates Loop Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis, a structural analysis technique commonly used in business and economic system dynamics models, and evaluates its utility for identifying feedback loop structures responsible for behavioural changes in complex ecological systems. The approach is demonstrated by analysing a simple lake system model that has been extensively studied in the past for its capacity to undertake critical transitions between alternative stable states. We show how the dominance of feedback loops can be tracked through time building influence over the system's behaviour decades prior to the actual collapse in the system. We discuss our findings in the context of studying complex ecosystems and socio-ecological systems.

К вопросу о сопоставлении объективных и субъективных оценок обеспеченности региона объектами социальной инфраструктуры

The aim of the work was to demonstrate the possibility of forming a strategy of innovative development of the region that could accelerate the transition of the regional economy to the dominance of new technological structures. By constructing econometric models of economic dynamics, the timelines for starting the pre-mining of the fifth mode in the economy of the Tula region are estimated. The strategy of accelerating the innovative development of the region’s economy are described. The strategy is based on the program-target approach, reflected in the state program of industrial development in the Tula region. The effectiveness of the program is shown.

Dynamic Economic Optimal Dispatch of Microgrid Based on Improved Differential Evolution Algorithm

Aiming at the static economical dispatch for microgrid ignoring the inherent link between the lack of each time interval, considering wind turbines, photovoltaic cells and sodium sulfur battery uncertainty factors on economic dispatch, taking the minimum micro power output and micro grid operation cost as objective function, the establishment of a micro grid dynamic economic dispatch model. Using VC + +, the dynamic economic dispatch program of microgrid is developed by using improved differential evolution algorithm. By changing the dynamic crossover factor, the convergence speed of the algorithm and the ability to avoid falling into local optimum are improved. According to the characteristics of microgrid example structure, the output principle and operation control strategy of microgrid are formulated according to the operation of microgrid isolated grid / grid connected operation. The results show that the economic dispatch of microgrid using dynamic optimization theory is more advantageous than static scheduling in cost saving, and it makes the charge and discharge of sodium sulfur battery more global and practical.

AN ECONOMIC MODEL OF STUDENT LEARNING

AbstractWe develop a dynamic economic model based on contemporary understanding of learning and motivation. The model and resulting comparative static analysis show the instructor's role in providing a productive learning environment. Instructors should set the complexity of course assignments and assessments to be consistent with student preparedness. Learning is enhanced when the rate of change in challenge is based on the rate of change of how rapidly students are learning. Instructors steer students toward a productive trajectory with tasks that cause students to work hard and by consistently providing feedback and fostering a culture of learning.

A Commentary on “Recovery from Catastrophe and Building Back Better (Takeuchi and Tanaka, 2016)” – Structure of Damage of Production Capital Stock on Normative Economic Process

In the field of disaster prevention, disaster loss is often classified into “direct loss” and “indirect loss.” As such, “total loss” is often calculated as a sum of “direct loss” and “indirect loss,” where “direct loss” is defined as a “loss of capital (assets) as a stock” and “indirect loss” is defined as “loss arising out of decline in postdisaster production as a flow.” However, the loss here is calculated twice. The calculation is incorrect if “indirect loss” refers to, in particular, the lost profit of a firm that has lost a production facility that is considered as a stock. The reason is that the “value of capital stock” is nothing but the present value of a product that the stock will produce in the future. Therefore, an “indirect loss” defined in the above manner corresponds to a decrease in stock value. Using a dynamic economic model, this article provides a basic structure, “value of loss in capital stock lost by a disaster” = “total decline of production after a disaster.” This article also presents a relational expression in consideration of the restoration cost of a production facility, and concludes that a more multifaceted and functional damage information system needs to be developed in the future.

Evaluating the Consequences of the Gas Processing Complex Creation in the Russian Far East

The article considers macrostructural modelling of the consequences of the creation of a gas processing complex in the Russian Far East as it is the new gas-processing industry for the economy of the region. The research includes two stages. Firstly, the authors determine the conditions for “the integration†of the new industry into the system of inter-industry interactions of the regional economy. Secondly, we simulate the perspective trends of the regional macro-indicators that take into account the direct and indirect effects of the new industry. To verify the modelling approach, we describe three basic alternatives: the first one is based on the input-output analysis; the second one — on the analysis of economic interactions, the third one — on the integration of macrostructural and project analyses. Focusing on the possibility of taking into account the time factor, we chose the second alternative. We analyzed the investment and production characteristics of the projects on the development of the Chayandskoye field, construction both the cross-country gas pipeline “The Power of Siberia†and the Amur Gas Processing Plant as well as the helium logistic center. Thus, we have found that the development of gas processing will lead to the increase in demand on the production and services of the industries existing in the region. First of all, it will be fuel and energy industries and industrial sectors. But the development will not change the structure of their expenses. In order to evaluate the effects of the demand impulses of gas processing, we apply the dynamic model of economic interactions FrEEDM (Far Eastern Economic Dynamic Model). Information on costs and output of the new industry is included in the model a priori in the form of latent technology. According to the simulation results, if the new industry is created in the regional economy by 2030, the annual increase in GRP will be 8,3 %; in households’ incomes, it will be 4,4 %; in regional budget incomes — 2,8 %. At the same time, gas processing products will be just petrochemical feedstock and fully supplied for export. That is why the operational phase effects produced by technological changes are the half of the investment phase effects.

Energy-Efficient Carbon Fiber Production with Concentrated Solar Power: Process Design and Techno-economic Analysis

Carbon fibers, if generated from anthropogenic CO2 via algae-based carbon fixation and subsequent energy and cost-efficient carbonization, would be a sustainable CO2 sink. They could replace materials that currently are major greenhouse gas (GHG) sources, hence contributing significantly to accomplishing targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement. For the first time, our study presents an integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) technology into a carbonization reactor (CR) for carbon fiber production combined with extensive energy recovery. Based on a mass and energy flow model of the corresponding CSP-CR concept, techno-economic analysis (TEA) was carried out, first with static base case values for broad variation analysis, and in a second step with a dynamic economic model, embedded in a Monte Carlo simulation, to quantify risks from market and modeling uncertainties. First results indicate significant reduction potential of energy consumption and cost. Economic viability perspectives are promising and ju...

Carbon Capture and Sustainable Utilization by Algal Polyacrylonitrile Fiber Production: Process Design, Techno-Economic Analysis, and Climate Related Aspects

Carbon capture and sustainable utilization (CCU) is essential to accomplishing the targets of 2015’s Paris Agreement. A promising option consists of algal based CO2 conversion into lipid rich biomass with further processing into polyacrylonitrile (PAN) fiber, the major precursor for carbon fiber production. A first feasibility analysis was carried out under multiple constraints for price, byproduct yield, and consumption of land, CO2, and energy. Several process-route alternatives were composed, modeled, and compared in terms of mass and energy flows, resource needs, and cost. To quantify risks from market and modeling uncertainties, we conducted a primary techno-economic analysis (TEA) with variable process pathways in a dynamic economic model of a related project company (SPV), embedded in a Monte Carlo simulation. First results indicate that process combinations with algal biodiesel-production and biomass-liquefaction (BtL) components come close to meeting the multiple constraints and justify progressi...

Static and dynamic models in economics

In this article, the authors consider the impact of information and advertising on consumer behavior and the process of producing differentiation formation. Advertising, television, radio, magazines and direct mail as major constraints of mass media may act as sources of information. Economic modernization is aimed at development of acceleration of the knowledge intensive industries, which contribute to Russia’s position in terms of the world economy; the recovering process of the Russian economic manufacturing base; development of import substitution industries and limited participation in international labor specialization.