Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change

Luciana L Porfirio,John J Finnigan,Yiyong Cai,David Newth

doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0164-y

Luciana L Porfirio, John J Finnigan + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-018-0164-y

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Abstract

In addition to expanding agricultural land area and intensifying crop yields, increasing the global trade of agricultural products is one mechanism that humanity has adopted to meet the nutritional demands of a growing population. However, climate change will affect the distribution of agricultural production and, therefore, food supply and global markets. Here we quantify the structural changes in the global agricultural trade network under the two contrasting greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by coupling seven Global Gridded Crop Models and five Earth System Models to a global dynamic economic model. Our results suggest that global trade patterns of agricultural commodities may be significantly different from today’s reality with or without carbon mitigation. More specifically, the agricultural trade network becomes more centralised under the high CO2 emissions scenario, with a few regions dominating the markets. Under the carbon mitigation scenario, the trade network is more distributed and more regions are involved as either importers or exporters. Theoretically, the more distributed the structure of a network, the less vulnerable the system is to climatic or institutional shocks. Mitigating CO2 emissions has the co-benefit of creating a more stable agricultural trade system that may be better able to reduce food insecurity.

Highlights

Ending world hunger whilst improving nutrition, promoting sustainable agriculture, and achieving food security, are key aspirations of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (Griggs et al 2013)
Alternative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathways for the Garnaut Review, which studied the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy (Garnaut, 2011), the low pollution futures program that explored the economic impacts of reducing carbon emissions in Australia (Australia, 2008) and the socio-economic scenarios of the Australian National Outlook and project that explored the links between physics and the economy and developed 20 futures for Australia out to 2050 (Hatfield-Dodds et al, 2015)
Our results show a positive trend in the S metric towards the end of the time series, indicating an increase of import/export interactions between the regions since 1870; that is, the trade network structure became more decentralised

Summary

Introduction

Ending world hunger whilst improving nutrition, promoting sustainable agriculture, and achieving food security, are key aspirations of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (Griggs et al 2013). Between 2000 and 2010, approximately 66% of the daily kcal intake per person, about 1750 kcal, was derived from the four key commodities that are the focus of this study: wheat, rice, coarse grains and oilseeds (WHO —FAO, 2003) It is expected, in the short term at least, that 50% of dietary energy requirements will continue to be provided by these commodities and this will be produced in developing regions (WHO—FAO, 2003). In the short term at least, that 50% of dietary energy requirements will continue to be provided by these commodities and this will be produced in developing regions (WHO—FAO, 2003) Extrapolating from these numbers, an extra 10 billion kcal per day will be needed to meet global demands by 2050. Understanding how climate change affects the production and trade of agricultural commodities is vital for ensuring the most vulnerable regions have access to a secure food supply

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