Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Research Articles

National and Regional Economic Impacts of changes in Germany's electricity mix: A dynamic analysis through 2050

To meet the net zero emission target by 2045, Germany has planned to phase out coal from electricity production by 2038 and increase electricity production from alternative sources through technological advancements. We examine the impacts of related measures on CO2 emissions, electricity security, and economic output at national and regional levels using a regionalized dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Our results reveal that phasing out coal from the electricity mix reduces electricity generation and increases imports but only slightly reduces electricity supply and economic output. The reduction in CO2 emissions in Germany is significant but insufficient to reach the 2045 net zero emission target. Additional technology advancements in alternative electricity productions accompanying the phase-out may have limited effects on the supply of electricity, economic outputs, and CO2 emissions.

How to achieve the goal of carbon peaking by the energy policy? A simulation using the DCGE model for the case of Shanghai, China

The main issue of this study is what kind of energy policy should Shanghai adopt to achieve the goal of carbon peaking in 2025, especially the policy different from that of the whole country. This study applies the dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of energy policy on energy consumption structure, energy use, carbon emissions, and the macroeconomy for the case of Shanghai, a city in east China with a large oil consumption share. By comparing the economic and environmental effects of various energy policies, suggestions are provided for Shanghai to choose a better energy policy. The simulation results indicate that limiting coal consumption and developing nonfossil energy policies, which is the policy listed in Shanghai's 14th five-year plan, could not achieve carbon peaking by 2025. A combined policy could achieve the goal of carbon peaking. In addition, the combined policy helps to optimize the effect of macroeconomy. Limiting oil consumption is the key to achieve carbon peaking in Shanghai. Additionally, the simulation of oil supply policy is helpful for policy making, especially for the regions with a similar energy structure. This study finding is a contribution to the existing literature.

Primary fossil energy cost and price regulation in energy processing sectors---the perspective of price regulation market with Chinese characteristics

All enterprises in the field of energy processing in China are state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and the government regulates the prices of their products. China's SOEs have multiple objectives, so the market is not mimic a simple oligopoly market. Energy processing sectors are the links between primary fossil energy and the economy. We apply a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model with multi-sectors and multi-households, named CEEEA/CGE model, to simulate and analyze the impact of primary fossil energy cost changes and what will happen if prices are regulated in these energy processing sectors. These results underscore the role of price regulation in energy processing sectors: the regulation seems to stabilize the economy. It will reduce the impact of rising and falling energy costs, whether the impact is good or bad. Other findings are: 1) “resource curse” is spotted when the primary energy cost is reduced dramatically. 2) CPI only increases by a little, even if the primary energy costs increase significantly. 3) The economic impact of the changes in fossil energy costs is asymmetric.

Income distribution effect of carbon pricing mechanism under China's carbon peak target: CGE-based assessments

China has implemented a national carbon emission trading scheme (Carbon ETS) to mitigate climate change and has set a goal to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030. The potential performance of the carbon tax as a supplement to the carbon ETS may contribute to achieving the carbon peaking target by reducing income inequality among the various labour forces. Nevertheless, carbon pricing places a greater burden on lower-income households than on wealthier households. In this paper, we construct a multisectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and incorporate the carbon ETS and carbon tax modules with 20 labour income distributions (ID-CGE model). The results indicate that the carbon pricing mechanism has a progressive effect on income distribution and a heterogeneous effect on the income of rural and urban workers. In rural areas, the middle- and high-income labours have witnessed a higher loss in income. In contrast, in urban areas, the low-income labours have experienced a greater decrease in income. Combining carbon tax and ETS policies to achieve carbon peaking goals by 2029 is a superior strategy.

Mitigation policies evaluation in the electric power sector for carbon neutrality, water conservation, and economic growth in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: a simulation with multi-regional dynamic CGE model

Mitigation policies evaluation in the electric power sector for carbon neutrality, water conservation, and economic growth in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: a simulation with multi-regional dynamic CGE model

Impacts of the population ageing on the effects of the nationwide emission trading scheme in China

Nowadays, population ageing is a common social phenomenon that occurs worldwide. Rapid ageing may have profound socioeconomic impacts, and thus it may influence effects of climate policy. Nevertheless, very few previous researchers have evaluated climate policy in an ageing society. In this paper, we attempt to narrow the research gap by incorporating ageing impact in climate policy evaluation. Specifically, we have modeled ageing impacts on labor supply, household electricity consumption, and health expenditure. The core of the research framework in this paper is a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The model results show that population ageing tends to decrease private health expenditure but increase governmental health expenditure. In contrast, Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) decreases both private and governmental health expenditure. Both population ageing and ETS decrease labor employment, employment rate, GDP, and carbon emissions. The results imply that population ageing lays heavy burdens on social healthcare system, whilst climate policy reduces governmental health expenditure. In ageing societies, mitigation targets can be achieved less costly and more easily through implementing ETS.

From Food Subsidies to Cash Transfers: Assessing Economy-Wide Benefits and Trade-Offs in Egypt

Abstract Food is a vital part of poor households' budgets and so subsidizing staple foods would appear to be an obvious pro-poor policy. Indeed, most countries in North Africa have prioritized large national subsidy programs for staple foods and fuels as their main social safety net. However, these programs account for significant shares of government spending and often drive fiscal deficits, especially when import prices rise. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to evaluate the trade-offs between reducing poverty and managing fiscal balances. The modeling framework allows us to measure the efficiency costs of subsidies compared to cash transfers - switching to the latter is an emerging regional trend. We analyze these issues through a detailed case study of Egypt, where efforts to replace food subsidies with cash transfers is already underway. Data is also available in Egypt to design scenarios that realistically reflect potential targeting effectiveness and administrative costs. We show that replacing broad food subsidies with targeted cash transfers of roughly equivalent fiscal costs can improve the welfare of the poorest households, but the continuation of fiscal deficits results in a deceleration of economic growth. The latter gradually reduces welfare gains for the poor and leads to substantial welfare losses for middle-income households who lose access to subsidies without benefitting from cash transfers. Our findings highlight the political challenges facing subsidy reform programs.

Combining mandatory coal power phaseout and emissions trading in China's power sector

China has launched its nationwide emissions trading system (ETS) in the power sector. Meanwhile, a mandatory phaseout policy for coal power is likely to be co-existing with China's nationwide ETS. These co-existing policies would interact with each other and, in certain cases, lead to unintended consequences, such as a policy overlap. This study aims to assess the impact of such combined policy in China by developing a multi-regional dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with specified modules of mandatory coal power phaseout and ETS. The results show that the impact of such policy combination depends on the type of ETS. Under China's current rate-based ETS, the co-existence of mandatory coal power phaseout would enhance the policy stringency and increase the coal power generation losses, carbon emission and intensity reductions. In contrast, the mass-based ETS with the combination of mandatory coal power phaseout would lead to a policy overlap and potential market failure in the ETS. The complementary provincial impacts and permit scarcity are two factors that could explain the combination mechanism of these policies. Furthermore, permit cancellation in a mass-based ETS would prevent the potential market failure but may lead to greater economic losses.

The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

PurposeEvaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.Design/methodology/approachUsing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.FindingsThe findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.Practical implicationsAs agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.Originality/valueThe examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.

Factorial CGE‐Based Analysis for the Indirect Benefits of the Three Gorges Project

AbstractLarge‐scale hydraulic projects (LHPs) have become increasingly significant in river basin flood‐risk management. Although LHPs’ direct flood‐retention benefits have been clearly shown, there has been a dearth of a comprehensive examination of their indirect implications, which can be more long‐lasting and substantial in both environmental and economic terms. Thus, this study develops a factorial computable general equilibrium (CGE)‐based LHP‐effect analysis approach (FLEA) to quantify the indirect impacts of LHPs and simulate postflood recovery strategies under diverse scenarios. The FLEA integrates a factorial analysis with a dynamic CGE framework, including a flood module that connects hydraulic initiatives to the economy during floods. The FLEA is applied to the Three Gorges Project (TGP). The results demonstrate that ∼$57 billion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and ∼12.9 Mt CO2eq reduction would be created annually through supply chains by the TGP. When floods strike, the TGP has the potential to save ∼$21 billion in GDP directly and reduce long‐term GDP losses by ∼50% throughout the reconstruction period. The TGP can have a considerable indirect impact on manufacturing. Furthermore, improved regulations and maintenance for the TGP may be desired for mitigating long‐term flood‐related losses, which is more crucial than aggressive postflood fiscal stimuli.

Trade reform, infrastructure investment, and structural transformation in Africa: Evidence from Guinea-Bissau

This study examines the impacts of trade reform and infrastructure investment on structural transformation and poverty alleviation in Guinea-Bissau using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We found that partial or complete tariff rate cuts accompanied by a scaling-up infrastructure investment funded by debt only positively impact macro-and micro-outcomes but do not generate structural transformation. Conversely, trade reform and infrastructure investment funded by a mix of debt and tax rates on the firm's income generate structural transformation with labor reallocation from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. This structural transformation pattern favors the poor and contributes to reducing income inequality over time.

Effect of Natural Gas Prices on Renewable Portfolio Standard Impacts

Climate policy in the United States is often carried out at the state level rather than the national level, including renewable portfolio standards for the electricity generation sector. We assess the impacts of the RPS in the State of Colorado, one of the first to be implemented, using a recursive dynamic CGE model CO-E. The RPS reduces real household income in the state by an annualized value of $134.8 million in 2025 if natural gas prices are low, but results in increased incomes with medium or high natural gas prices although with medium natural gas prices the RPS causes electricity prices to rise. The impacts of the RPS are negatively correlated with those of natural gas price shocks to the overall state economy. As a result, the RPS serves as a partial insurance policy for the State against natural gas price shocks, which adds $4.53 million to the annualized benefit of the policy.

Assessment of the potential impacts of a carbon tax in Chile using dynamic CGE model

Carbon taxes have been proposed as a major instrument to mitigate carbon emissions and promote an energy transition to low carbon sources. However, its adoption remains politically challenging, particularly amid rising inflation and energy prices. Despite the need for more aggressive action on carbon mitigation to reach the Paris Agreement goals, few countries in Latin America have adopted carbon taxes and the tax levels are relatively low. A key concern for these countries, is to adequately assess the tradeoffs between stricter emission goals and the potential negative economy wide as well as sectoral and distributive impacts. In this context, in this paper we first propose a step by step approach to enhance an existing dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Chile based on OECD's Green model. The contribution of this research is twofold. Firstly, emission factors are estimated and the development of the electricity sector is aligned with the expectations of decision makers. As a result, credible emission and energy sector development forecasts are generated by the model, that are in line with what policymakers expect to happen based on other bottom-up engineering models. Secondly, this baseline is then used in the CGE model to examine the use of a carbon tax to reach Chile's first Nationally Determined Contribution. The required tax level is determined together with CO2 emissions and the economywide, sectoral and distributive impacts. The results allow concluding about the applicability of carbon taxes and possible complementary measures.

The three plans by Biden: effects on economic growth and income inequality

The three budgetary plans under Biden’s presidency—the American Rescue Plan, the American Families Plan, and the American Job Plan–encompass a set of measures meant to expand investments, support production processes, stimulate private consumption, and protect the labor market through transfers, tax credits, production subsidies, and federal unemployment benefits. Thus, besides relieving the economic system, these plans aim to drastically reduce poverty. This study attempts to disentangle the direct, indirect, and induced economic effects generated by these plans in a well-defined time-lapse through a dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on the social accounting matrix for the US. This approach enables the simulation of shocks from both the demand and supply sides, as well as policies for income redistribution. The simulation scenarios’ results prove the plans’ effectiveness vis-à-vis economic growth and support to households, as well as the peculiar effects on income inequality.

Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We estimate the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the U.S. using a disaster economic consequence analysis framework implemented by a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This facilitates identification of relative influences of several causal factors as "shocks" to the model, including mandatory business closures, disease spread trajectories, behavioral responses, resilience, pent-up demand, and government stimulus packages. The analysis is grounded in primary data on avoidance behavior and healthcare parameters. The decomposition of the influence of various causal factors will help policymakers offset the negative influences and reinforce the positive ones during the remainder of this pandemic and future ones.

Impacts on the embodied carbon emissions in China’s building sector and its related energy-intensive industries from energy-saving technologies perspective: A dynamic CGE analysis

Research on embodied carbon emission reduction in the building sector from an energy-saving technology perspective has attracted wide attention. However, because the embodied carbon emissions in the building sector comprise a complex category involving multiple related industries, existing studies have often focused on the environmental impacts on one related industry, while few researchers have explored the impacts of energy-saving technologies on the embodied carbon emissions in the building sector from an industrial relevance perspective. In this study, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was employed, and different energy-saving technology scenarios were established to assess the economic and environmental impacts on three related energy-intensive industries (the cement, steel and construction industries) and to analyze the impacts on the embodied carbon emissions in the building sector. The results indicated that the considered energy-saving technologies increased the outputs of the three related industries and reduced product prices. The energy-saving technologies reduced the energy and carbon emission intensities. It was also demonstrated that the embodied carbon emission reduction in the building sector mainly depends on the implementation of energy-saving technologies in the steel and cement industries, the construction industry exhibits a high potential for embodied carbon emission reduction, and the reduction potential largely depends on industry-wide energy-saving technologies.

Feed-in tariffs and the carbon emission trading scheme under China's peak emission target: A dynamic CGE analysis for the development of renewable electricity

Thermal power industry is one of China's leading sources of carbon emissions. China has launched a national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) and renewable energy incentive programs to achieve its peak emission target by 2030. However, since 2021, China no longer provides a central feed-in tariff (FIT) for new centrally located solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants, commercial and industrially distributed PV projects, and newly approved onshore wind power projects. This change in policy may threaten China's carbon reduction targets and economic development. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we assess the combined effects of carbon ETS and FIT on China's electricity sector, carbon emission peak target, renewable energy and economic development. In terms of policy overlap and integration, we analyze the impact of these policies and estimate how to coordinate FIT and carbon ETS policies to ensure their effectiveness. Results show that the overall effects of FIT subsidies are superior to phasing-out FIT scenarios. The fiscal pressure caused by FIT is lower than its actual expenditure because it stimulates economic activity and boosts government revenue. However, considering the multiplier effect of the FIT on promoting government revenue growth and GDP growth, the most effective FIT should be terminated in 2025, followed by subsidies ending in 2030 and 2035.

COVID-19 Impact and Policy Response: A General Equilibrium Approach for Egypt

Abstract The economic impacts of COVID-19 were negative across nations but with different degrees depending on the timing, degree of containment measures and the extent of dependency on the world economy. Moreover, the policy response has been heterogeneous across different countries, but mainly addressing urgent and short-term problems without addressing the structural problems that led to the vulnerability of these countries in crisis times. Thus, the objective of this paper is threefold. First, it distinguishes between the supply and demand effects of COVID-19. Second, we examine the key differences between the short and long terms effects of the policies that were adopted. Finally, we modify the model to include the informal labor that was highly affected by the pandemic, and we relax the assumption of perfect competition and replicate the simulations under an imperfect competitive framework in order to see how reforms pertaining to competition policies can alter the adopted policies. To do so, we use a dynamic CGE model calibrated on the Egyptian Social Accounting Matrix of 2014/2015. Our findings show how the Egyptian economy has been relatively vulnerable to external shocks that affect its sources of foreign currency. Yet, most of the effects are temporary and vanish in the long run. Imperfect competition in commodity markets would increase the adverse effects of the pandemic and undermine the effectiveness of public policies.

Carbon tax, energy policy, and sustainable development in Indonesia

AbstractThe effectiveness of carbon taxes has been subject to important debates on the sustainable development pathway. As an archipelagic country that is vulnerable to climate change, the impact of implementing this policy instrument is still understudied in the literature. This study examines the effect of carbon tax and recycling scenarios on the Indonesian economy by employing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE). The result revealed that carbon tax revenue recycling combined with household transfer and investment yielded better GDP and employment rate than a household transfer only in the medium and long terms. Furthermore, the carbon tax revenue recycling on household transfer and renewable energy investment created energy intensity reductions. This study recommends implementing the tax by prioritizing specific sectors, setting appropriate tax levels, applying a transitional policy, and diversifying the investment strategy to align with the sustainable development pathway.

Import Tariff Reduction and Fiscal Sustainability: A Macro-Econometric Modelling for Ethiopia

The main objective of this study is to examine the dynamic impact of import tariff reduction on major macroeconomic variables and its long-run implications for the fiscal sustainability of Ethiopia. In addition, it estimates the increase in the average consumption tax required to compensate for the possible tax revenue loss and fiscal sustainability. A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (RDCGEM) is used to assess the dynamic impact on macroeconomic variables of import tariff reduction and examine the increased consumption tax required. The study is novel as there are no studies in general, and for Ethiopia in particular in this regard. We use the available 2013/2014 base year macroeconomic data from national income accounts, fiscal accounts, and balance of payments accounts of Ethiopia. The RDCGEM is calibrated to the base year data, checked for correctness, and tested for robustness using sensitivity analysis. The model then is simulated for the import tariff reduction under the base case and under various tariff reduction scenarios based on which the macroeconomic impacts of tariff reduction are analyzed. Based on the RDCGM outputs, the fiscal sustainability impact of import tariff reduction is verified, and using a cointegration method, we examine the sustainability of fiscal policy. The results suggest a 95 percent import tariff reduction that negatively impacts the major macroeconomic variables. It also leads to long-term fiscal unsustainability. The joint reform of the country has relatively better impacts on major macroeconomic variables but slightly negative effects on household income and consumption.