Feed-in tariffs and the carbon emission trading scheme under China's peak emission target: A dynamic CGE analysis for the development of renewable electricity

Abstract

Thermal power industry is one of China's leading sources of carbon emissions. China has launched a national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) and renewable energy incentive programs to achieve its peak emission target by 2030. However, since 2021, China no longer provides a central feed-in tariff (FIT) for new centrally located solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants, commercial and industrially distributed PV projects, and newly approved onshore wind power projects. This change in policy may threaten China's carbon reduction targets and economic development. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we assess the combined effects of carbon ETS and FIT on China's electricity sector, carbon emission peak target, renewable energy and economic development. In terms of policy overlap and integration, we analyze the impact of these policies and estimate how to coordinate FIT and carbon ETS policies to ensure their effectiveness. Results show that the overall effects of FIT subsidies are superior to phasing-out FIT scenarios. The fiscal pressure caused by FIT is lower than its actual expenditure because it stimulates economic activity and boosts government revenue. However, considering the multiplier effect of the FIT on promoting government revenue growth and GDP growth, the most effective FIT should be terminated in 2025, followed by subsidies ending in 2030 and 2035.