Occurrence Of Dust Storms Research Articles

Measurement of aerosol optical depth and sub-visual cloud detection using the optical depth sensor (ODS)

Abstract. A small and sophisticated optical depth sensor (ODS) has been designed to work in the atmosphere of Mars. The instrument measures alternatively the diffuse radiation from the sky and the attenuated direct radiation from the Sun on the surface. The principal goals of ODS are to retrieve the daily mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) and to detect very high and optically thin clouds, crucial parameters in understanding the Martian meteorology and climatology. The detection of clouds is undertaken at twilight, allowing the detection and characterization of clouds with opacities below 0.03 (sub-visual clouds). In addition, ODS is capable to retrieve the aerosol optical depth during nighttime from moonlight measurements. Recently, ODS has been selected at the METEO meteorological station on board the ExoMars 2018 Lander. In order to study the performance of ODS under Mars-like conditions as well as to evaluate the retrieval algorithms for terrestrial measurements, ODS was deployed in Ouagadougou (Africa) between November 2004 and October 2005, a Sahelian region characterized by its high dust aerosol load and the frequent occurrence of Saharan dust storms. The daily average AOD values retrieved by ODS were compared with those provided by a CIMEL sunphotometer of the AERONET (Aerosol Robotic NETwork) network localized at the same location. Results represent a good agreement between both ground-based instruments, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77 for the whole data set and 0.94 considering only the cloud-free days. From the whole data set, a total of 71 sub-visual cirrus (SVC) were detected at twilight with opacities as thin as 1.10−3 and with a maximum of occurrence at altitudes between 14 and 20 km. Although further optimizations and comparisons of ODS terrestrial measurements are required, results indicate the potential of these measurements to retrieve the AOD and detect sub-visual clouds.

Decreasing Aerosol Loading in the North American Monsoon Region

We examine the spatio-temporal variability of aerosol loading in the recent decade (2005–2014) over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region. Emerging patterns are characterized using aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the NASA Terra/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument along with a suite of satellite retrievals of atmospheric and land-surface properties. We selected 20 aerosol hotspots and classified them into fire, anthropogenic, dust, and NAM alley clusters based on the dominant driver influencing aerosol variability. We then analyzed multivariate statistics of associated anomalies during pre-, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. Our results show a decrease in aerosol loading for the entire NAM region, confirming previous reports of a declining AOD trend over the continental United States. This is evident during pre-monsoon and monsoon for fire and anthropogenic clusters, which are associated with a decrease in the lower and upper quartile of fire counts and carbon monoxide, respectively. The overall pattern is obfuscated in the NAM alley, especially during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. While the NAM alley is mostly affected by monsoon precipitation, the frequent occurrence of dust storms in the area modulates this trend. We find that aerosol loading in the dust cluster is associated with observed vegetation index and has only slightly decreased in the recent decade.

Onset of frequent dust storms in northern China at ~AD 1100.

Dust storms in northern China strongly affect the living and health of people there and the dusts could travel a full circle of the globe in a short time. Historically, more frequent dust storms occurred during cool periods, particularly the Little Ice Age (LIA), generally attributed to the strengthened Siberian High. However, limited by chronological uncertainties in proxy records, this mechanism may not fully reveal the causes of dust storm frequency changes. Here we present a late Holocene dust record from the Qaidam Basin, where hydrological changes were previously reconstructed, and examine dust records from northern China, including the ones from historical documents. The records, being broadly consistent, indicate the onset of frequent dust storms at ~AD 1100. Further, peaked dust storm events occurred at episodes of high total solar irradiance or warm-dry conditions in source regions, superimposed on the high background of frequent dust storms within the cool LIA period. We thus suggest that besides strong wind activities, the centennial-scale dust storm events over the last 1000 years appear to be linked to the increased availability of dust source. With the anticipated global warming and deteriorating vegetation coverage, frequent occurrence of dust storms in northern China would be expected to persist.

A New Perspective on Understanding the Reduced Spring Dust Storm Frequency in Inner Mongolia, China

Spatiotemporal patterns of dust storms are affected by climate change through changes in convective instability, regional meteorological characteristics, and local sediment supply. Linking dust storm dynamics to climate change helps the understanding of what controls the initiation of dust storms, and assists the prediction of future dust storm occurrence. This study examines the temporal dynamics of spring dust storms in Inner Mongolia, a major dust source area in East Asia. We found that severe spring dust storms have significantly declined from 1954 to 2007. Four dust storm types showed similar decreasing trends from 2001 to 2012. This change in spring dust storm dynamics is attributed to the shift in vegetation green-up dates based on the analysis of a satellite derived vegetation index. Earlier vegetation green-up has a dampening effect on spring dust storms. Suitable environmental conditions for vegetation green-up hinder the emergence of dust storms. This study expands our understanding of the dynamics of spring dust storms in the changing climate through a new perspective on vegetation phenology in the spring.

Analyzing the Relationship Between Dust Storm Occurrence and Climatic Parameters

Since climate has a major impact on dust generation, it is essential to identify the climatic parameters affecting this phenomenon. In this study, climatic parameters including temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, maximum wind speed and direction were selected and their relationship with visibility data and also dust storm days (recorded at meteorological stations) was analyzed on monthly and yearly scales using multivariable linear regression. Results showed that the number of dust storm days has reached 366 days in the last five years. The minimum dust storm days occurred in autumn in all the stations of Khuzestan province including Abadan, Ahvaz, Omidiyeh, Dezful, and Masjed Soleiman and the maximum dust days for Abadan and Ahvaz stations and three remaining stations occurred in spring and summer, respectively. Results also showed that the highest frequency of dust storms in Abadan and Ahvaz stations did not coincide with summer season which has the lowest rainfall of the year. As a result, it seems that the main reason for this difference is the climatic characteristics of dust sources and deposition regions. The occurrence of dust events in the remaining stations in summer time indicated that the sources of dust storms might be local and within the study area. The regression analysis confirmed this issue as the number of climatic parameters which had significant correlations with visibility data increased from 8 to 16 from west to east in the region. Overall, the results showed that with the increasing distance from Arab countries such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, dust sources were mostly local and provincial.

Assessing the accuracy of multiple regressions, ANFIS, and ANN models in predicting dust storm occurrences in Sanandaj, Iran

Dust storms in the Sanandaj area in the western region of Iran, mainly during spring and summer, have become an environmental crisis. Prediction of dust storm occurrences helps the residents to their detrimental effects. However, no study has been conducted to determine the accuracy of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model in predicting dust storm occurrences. For that purpose, the prediction accuracy of ANFIS model was compared with that of two conventional models used for dust storm prediction: the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Multiple Regression (MLR) models. Daily mean meteorological variables from Damascus (Syria) and PM10 concentration, measured at a ground station in Sanandaj, Iran, from 2009 to 2012, were selected as independent and dependent variables, respectively. After data normalization between zero and one, the data from 2009 to 2011 were used for the simulation, while the data of 2012 were utilized for testing the models. The performance of the ANFIS model in simulating dust storm occurrences was higher compared with those of MLR and ANN. In the simulation results, among the three models, the highest Pearson correlation coefficient between the observed and the estimated dust storm occurrences was obtained for the ANFIS model. The prediction tests showed that the accuracy of the ANFIS model was higher compared with ANN and MLR. From the results of this study, it can be concluded that the ANFIS model has the potential to forecast dust storm occurrences in western Iran by using meteorological variables of the dust storm creation zone in the Syrian deserts.

Intensity of nightside MARSIS AIS surface reflections and implications for low‐altitude ionospheric densities

AbstractSpacecraft radar sounding signals at frequencies higher than the ionospheric peak plasma frequency are not reflected by the ionosphere. Instead, they make it to the ground where they are reflected by the planetary surface. We analyze the intensity of the surface reflections measured by the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding (MARSIS) ionospheric radar sounder on board the Mars Express spacecraft. Apart from the surface reflectivity and the spacecraft altitude, the detected intensity of surface reflections is controlled primarily by the signal attenuation during the ionospheric propagation. We focus on the nightside region, where the ionospheric densities in the main layer are too low to cause a significant attenuation and allow sampling of the surface reflections at frequencies down to 3 MHz. The attenuation occurs mainly at altitudes below 100 km, where the electron‐neutral collision frequency is a maximum. The intensity of surface reflections can thus serve as a proxy for electron densities at low altitudes not accessible by the direct ionospheric radar sounding. We analyze the intensity of surface reflections as a function of relevant controlling parameters. The intensity of surface reflections is lower at higher solar zenith angles on the nightside and during the periods of larger solar activity. Moreover, it exhibits a seasonal variation that is related to the dust storm occurrence. The intensity of surface reflections is lower in areas of closed magnetic field lines, suggesting that nightside electron densities behave rather differently at low altitudes than at higher altitudes. This is confirmed by comparison with simultaneous observations of the main ionospheric layer.

Experimental Study of the Application of Sodium Silicate in the Windbreak and Sand Fixation Engineering

With the accelerated development of land desertification, sudden wind sand disaster, strong dust storm occurrence frequency more and more high.In the desert area where the alkali content in soil is low and there is existence of quicksand, the sand brick was prepared by using sodium silicate as chemical sand fixation adhesive materials and sodium fluosilicate as hardening agent, in order to improve the surface properties of desert land, control the spread of deserts and improve the environment of desert. In this paper, the suitable dosage of sodium fluosilicate and sodium silicate were studied,which have an important effect on compressive strength, flexural strength, block antifreeze and water absorption properties of the mortar test block.

艾比湖湿地退化对盐尘暴发生及运移路径的影响

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 艾比湖湿地退化对盐尘暴发生及运移路径的影响 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201312263034 作者: 作者单位: 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: X87 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(41130531,41261090,41161063) Effect of salt dust storm migration pathways on degradation of Ebinur Lake Wetland Author: Affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science,Xinjiang University,Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecosystem of Education Ministry,Xinjiang University Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:新疆艾比湖湿地内间歇性裸露的干涸湖底加重了周围区域的盐渍化程度,为盐尘暴的发生发展提供了粉尘物质来源。盐碱粉末在风力作用下以颗粒物的形式悬浮在空中并向周围扩散,严重危害周边区域的生态安全和社会经济发展。本文选择研究区三期遥感影像,结合同期野外实测大气降尘及地表土壤采样数据,剖析区域土壤盐渍化与盐尘暴发生作用机制,探讨艾比湖湿地退化引发的盐尘暴在传输、沉降过程中对源地及途经区域的生态环境的影响,进而对盐尘暴的运移路径进行模拟预测。有关成果对于揭示该区域独特的盐尘暴发生及作用机制问题具有重要作用。 Abstract:The lake wetlands are a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. They are also one of the most important environments that sustain human beings, especially in arid and semi-arid areas of Northwestern China. The lake wetland ecosystem not only serves as an important media reflecting the dynamics of the local natural processes and habitat, but also promotes the interaction between human beings and the nature to maintain a sustainable balance between the two. Salt dust storm and alkaline dust deposition are generally caused by lack of water as loose deposits, dry lake bed crust, salt and saline soil are blown and salt deposits are dispositioned due to wind erosion. The salt powder in the form of suspended particles in the air becomes a natural disaster accompanied with strong wind. In addition to saline, alkaline elements, it contains crystalline dry lakebed sediments, toxic chemicals, and harmful heavy metal particles, which threaten plant survival. The development process of alkaline dust storm not only contaminates the air, food, water, and other natural resources with a mix of bacteria, fungi, and other toxic and harmful substances, but it also destroys the grassland and crops, and causes various diseases in humans and livestock. Intermittently exposed lake bottom of dry lake in the Ebinur Lake region is the primary source for salt dust storms in the surrounding area. Saline powder suspends in the air and spreads in the form of particles with the wind, seriously endangering the ecological stability and socio-economic development of the surrounding area. The current study attempts to investigate the dust storm migration pathways and its environmental effects using three remote sensing images combined with synchronous field measurements of salt dust and surface soil samples with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We also explore the environmental changes caused by salt dust storms and their impacts on the settlement process of Ebinur Lake by simulating and predicting the migration pathways of salt dust storms. Combining atmospheric dust deposition and surface soil data as well as the westerly direction and airflow path, we simulated the transport trajectories of salt dust for about four months in Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China. The results indicate that: (1) the degree of soil salinization within the study area is uneven. The highest level of salinization occurs around the Ebinur Lake but gradually weakens towards the peripheral expansion areas; (2) the dynamics of saline land is closely related to the change in vegetation cover and water area and to human activity, which also has a significant impact on the evolution of soil salinization; (3) there are two different paths of salt dust storm, the north path starting from Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture→Aletai→Gansu→Inner Mongolia→Mongolia→Heilongjiang and southeastern path from Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture (Jinghe, Bole, Wenquan, and Alashankou)→Wusu→Kuitun→Vrümqi→Kurla→Turpan→Kumul. Our results present important information regarding the occurrence and mechanism of salt and dust storms in arid and semi-arid regions. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Effect of the temperature variation between Mediterranean Sea and Syrian deserts on the dust storm occurrence in the western half of Iran

Recent dust storms have caused crises in western Iran, which necessitate the prediction of these storms a few days before their occurrence. This is the first study of its type that analyzes the effect of temperature differences between the Mediterranean Sea surface and Syrian deserts (creation zone of the dusts storms) on the formation of dust storms in the west of Iran. The study also seeks to identify any changes in the atmospheric temperature created by the extreme dust storm of July 5, 2009 in west of Iran (Sanandaj City). In this study, the MODIS images from 2000 to 2008, and particulate matter data of the Sanandaj station from 2008 to 2012 were utilized to identify the dust storm days. The Mediterranean Sea surface temperature data were extracted from NOAA satellites for dust storm days up to four days preceding them. The web site of world weather was used to obtain the temperature of Damascus, Syria station as the selected land station. According to the results, significant differences were acquired between surface temperatures of Damascus station and the Mediterranean Sea in the dust storm days and up to three days before them. As the dust storm days approached, a rising trend was observed in changes of the temperature difference between land and sea. Thermal map analysis of the atmosphere of the Syrian deserts on July 5, 2009 showed significant decrease in the levels of 1000hPa and 500hPa but for the days preceding it no significant changes were observed. It can be concluded that the temperature difference between the Mediterranean Sea surface and the Syrian deserts four days before the dust storm occurrences is the important factor in predicting this event.

Effects of Asian Dust Storm Events on Enterovirus Infection with Severe Complications in Taiwan

Background: Dust storm has been reported to increase bacteria, fungi and virus in ambient air of the downwind area. In Taiwan, the outbreak of enterovirus infection usually began from the end of the dust storm season when is the peak of Asian dust storm (ASD) occurrence. However, the association between enterovirus infection and ASD events has not been explored. Aim: To evaluate the impacts of ASD events on the occurrence of enterovirus infection with severe complications (EVSC) in Taiwan. Methods: A time-stratified 2:1 matched-period case-crossover design was utilized in this study. We compared each case with self-controlled data using a conditional logistic regression analysis and estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for the occurrence of cases. The city, temperature, temperature difference, and rainfall were adjusted. EVSC and meteorological data were acquired from Central Weather Bureau and Taiwan Centers for Disease Control in Taiwan from 2002-2008, respectively. The arrival of ASD events in Taiwan was identified by Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency and Lin et al. (2012, Atmospheric Environment 60: 403-418). Results: There were 2099 EVSC cases and 110 ASD event days in Taiwan from 2002-2008. For lag day- 0 to 15, the elevated incidence risk of EVSC was associated with the arrival of Asian dust storm by increasing lag period from 0 to 7 days (HRs = 1.826 to 3.135). However, the risks were dramatically decreased 8-15 days after ADS. Additionally, Asian dust storm events with 6- and 7-day were significantly and positively associated with the EVSC occurrence, the adjusted HRs were 3.143 (95% CI = 1.196-8.255) and 3.135 (95% CI = 1.023-9.603), respectively. These results give a possibility that ADS may bring enterovirus to the downwind area, thereby increasing the infection risk. Conclusion: ASD events may increase the risk of the reporting EVSC cases, particularly significant at 6- and 7-day lag.

Solar System dynamics and global-scale dust storms on Mars

Global-scale dust storms occur during the southern summer season on Mars in some Mars years but not in others. We present an updated catalog of Mars years including such storms (n=9) and Mars years without global-scale storms (n=11) through the year 2013. A remarkable relationship links the occurrence and non-occurrence of global-scale dust storms on Mars with changes in the orbital angular momentum of Mars with respect to the Solar System barycenter (LMars). All of the global-scale dust storms became planet-encircling in both latitude and longitude during periods when LMars was increasing or near maxima. Statistical significance at the 1% level is obtained for the clustering tendency of LMars phases for the 5 mid-season storms with Ls ranging from 208° to 262° (1956, 1971, 1982, 1994, and 2007). The 11 Mars years without global-scale dust storms exhibit mainly decreasing and minimum values of LMars during the first half of the dust storm season; this tendency is statistically significant at the 5% level. A systematic progression is present in the phasing of the solar irradiance and LMars waveforms for the global-scale storm years. LMars phases for the early season global-scale storms of 1977 and 2001 are advanced in phase with respect to those of the mid-season storms, while the phase for the late season storm of 1973 is delayed with respect to those of the mid-season storms cluster. Factors internal to the Mars climate system, such as a spatial redistribution of surface dust from year to year, must be invoked to account for the non-occurrence of global-scale dust storms in five years (1986, 2003, 2005, 2009, and 2013) when the LMars phase was otherwise favorable. Our results suggest that the occurrence of increasing or peak values of LMars immediately prior to and during the Mars dust storm season may be a necessary-but-not-sufficient condition for the initiation of global-scale dust storms on Mars.

METEOROLOGICKÉ PODMÍNKY V DOBĚ VÝSKYTU EXTRÉMNÍ VĚTRNÉ EROZE NA TĚŽKÝCH PŮDÁCH

Wind erosion in the Czech Republic conditions poses relatively a lot of danger, especially for the most fertile areas, where agricultural land is more vulnerable due to the large pieces of land and inappropriate crop rotation. This process causes damage to agriculture by loss of topsoil, fertilizers, seeds and crop damage as well as sedimentation in water recipients and on roads. It also has negative impacts on human health (airborne dust). Wind erosion is especially affected by climatic elements (wind, temperature, precipitation and evaporation etc.) and soil characteristics (soil type, content of erodible particles, soil moisture). Wind erosion affects mainly light and medium heavy soil. South Moravia is an example of the territories to which this rule does not apply. Although soils in the Carpathian flysch subsoil are mainly heavy, erosion has been causing damage here for many decades. Quite strong dust storms are not rare, especially at the end of winter and in early spring when the soil is not covered by vegetation.Notable cases of dust storms in the area were recorded in local chronicles, and then written in the summary publication by dr. Švehlík. Interest of this publication was focused on the most destructive cases of dust storms in Bílé Karpaty foothills. The aim was to study meteorological conditions during the period before and during the occurrence of dust storms in the area in detail and to find the relationship between weather and the intensity of wind erosion. The data of wind speed and direction, temperature, precipitation and snow were evaluated. In all cases the average daily air temperature and ground air temperature was over the freezing point or closely under it. The temperature generally increased before the dust storm occurrence and it often happened from negative to positive temperature and the soil probably defrosted. Snow cover was very small or there was no snow cover at all. In the course of April wind erosion occurrence there was no snow and the precipitation was inconsiderable. Soil at the station was mostly bare, dry and defrosted.

Characteristics of meteorological factors over different landscape types during dust storm events in Cele, Xinjiang, China

Landscape characteristics influence meteorological factors, thus affect the occurrence and nature of dust storm events. The present study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of six meteorological factors (wind velocity, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity (RH), photo synthetically active radiation (PAR), and solar radiation) over different landscape types (shifting-sand frontier, semi-fixed sandy land, fixed sandy land, and the inner region of an oasis) before and after dust storms during four typical dust storm events in an oasis-desert ecotone in Cele, Xinjiang, China. The results show that the average wind velocity decreased significantly from the shifting-sand frontier to the inner oasis, which was mainly attributable to the vegetation coverage. Before the dust storm events, there were obvious differences in air temperature and RH either in the horizontal or vertical direction over the different landscape types. However, these factors were very similar during and following the dust storm events. PAR and solar radiation were significantly reduced during the dust storm events and the subsequent sand-blowing and floating-dust conditions. This effect was much stronger than during similar weather conditions without dust storm events such as sand-blowing and overcast and/or rainy days. Additionally, the variation in the meteorological factors among the different landscapes was also affected by the prevailing wind direction during the dust storm events. However, the landscape type slightly changed the prevailing wind direction, with the greatest dispersion distribution of wind direction in the inner oasis. The findings of this study are helpful for understanding the function of landscape types in the occurrence of dust storms, as well as for providing a theoretical basis for prevention of dust storms.

Dust aerosol drives upward trend of surface solar radiation during 1980–2009 in the Taklimakan Desert

AbstractLong‐term trend of surface solar radiation (SSR) in the Taklimakan Desert (TD) during 1980–2009 and its relationship to total cloud cover (TCC), low cloud cover (LCC), water vapor content (WVC) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) were investigated. Annual mean SSR has increased by 1.21 W m−2 decade−1. Upward SSR trends were observed in seasons except winter. TCC, LCC and WVC have increased, however, AOD and occurrences of severe dust storms have decreased, which indicates that dust aerosol rather than cloud cover and water vapor drive long‐term upward trend of SSR in the TD.

On air pollutant variations in the cases of long-range transport of dust particles observed in central Korea in the leeside of China in 2010

The occurrence and transport of dust storms and anthropogenic air pollutants in East Asia have been monitored using the meteorological satellite data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and ground-based measurements at Cheongwon, a background observation site in central Korea. The nine cases, measured over 14 days, of natural dust particles caused by dust storms originating from northern China and Mongolia were observed at Cheongwon in the spring, autumn, and winter of 2010. In addition, seven cases, measured over 18 days, of anthropogenic dust particles originating from eastern China were observed over the course of a year. In those cases of natural and anthropogenic dust particles observed at Cheongwon, the level of particle matter (PM) with a diameter of ≤10 μm (PM10) (100 μgm−3 day−1) or PM2.5 (50 μgm−3 day−1) exceeded the air quality standards of Korea for 5 and 6 days, respectively. At the same time, CO concentrations rose higher due to long-range transport, while CO levels in the cases of anthropogenic dust particles (954 ppb) rose higher compared with the cases of natural dust particles (812 ppb). While gusty north–northwesterly winds were blowing in the front side of high-pressure systems, an increase in CO concentrations along with the influx of dust storms was observed at Cheongwon in the three natural dust particle cases with continental background airflow (n-CBAs). However, the other six natural dust particle cases with continental polluted airflow (n-CPAs) were also observed where mass concentrations of TSP, PM10 and PM2.5, and CO increased simultaneously after the CO concentrations rose and fell before dust storms had flowed in, showing double peaks. The mass concentrations of total suspended particle (TSP), PM10, and PM2.5 were high, and the PM2.5/TSP mass concentration ratio was high in n-CPAs, compared with n-CBAs. However, the anthropogenic dust particle cases with continental polluted airflow (a-CPA) are affected by air pollutants transported from eastern China by warm southwesterly winds, since central Korea is located in the rear side of the high-pressure system and in the foreside of the low-pressure system. Also, the anthropogenic dust particle cases with regionally polluted airflow (a-RPA) were observed in central Korea due to a stagnant high-pressure system for several days in the Yellow Sea region. In a-CPA, the mass concentrations of TSP, PM10, and PM2.5; the PM2.5/TSP mass concentration ratio; and the CO concentrations were all higher than in a-RPA.

Dust Level Forecasting and its Interaction with Gaseous Pollutants Using Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study for Kermanshah, Iran

An artificial neural network (ANN) was used to forecast natural airborne dust as well as five gaseous air pollutants concentration by using a combination of daily mean meteorological measurements and dust storm occurrence at a regulatory monitoring site in Kermanshah, Iran for the period of 2007-2011. We used local meteorological measurementsand air quality data collected from three previous days as independent variables and the daily pollutants records as the dependent variables (response). Neural networks could be used to develop rapid air quality warning systems based on a network of automated monitoring stations. Robustness of constructed ANN acknowledged and the effects of variation of input parameters were investigated. As a result, dust had a decreasing impact on the gaseous pollutants level. The prediction tests showed that the ANN models used in this study have the high potential of forecasting dust storm occurrence in the region studied by using conventional meteorological variables.

Use of Decision Theory to Predict Dust Storms over New Delhi, India

The north and northwest parts of India experience dust/sandstorms during the pre-monsoon season (April to May). We studied dust storms occurring over New Delhi, India (2001 to 2012) to develop a probabilistic forecast method. A probabilistic forecast method is discussed in this paper as a decision making tool that can be used to meet the needs of the users. The application of decision theory to forecast an event is that the end user of the forecast takes a decision for action on the basis of each forecast. This study stems from an elementary decision theory based on three interlocking procedures to follow viz. 1) identification of meteorological parameters responsible for dust storms, 2) determining the impact of each meteorological parameter in the initiation of a dust storm and 3) finally using the first two steps an action is recommended. Among the meteorological parameters, temperature, wind speed, pressure, number of sunny hours and evaporation had a positive impact on dust storm occurrence as compared to other variables selected. Using the concept of utility, which is an integral part of decision theory, a decision matrix is constructed. This decision matrix contains the threshold value above which a dust storm has occurred followed by each state of weather and the course of action. Thus, in this paper, a different concept of forecasting is discussed and optional rules for decision making based on the availability of a limited amount of meteorological data are presented. This forecast is of the very short range (0 - 3 hours) based on the meteorological conditions just prior to the occurrence of a dust event. We validated our findings with the OMI Aerosol index obtained from AERONET.

Characteristics of TSP Loads during the Middle East Springtime Dust Storm (MESDS) in Western Iran

Dust storm is one of the most important environmental problems in the west of Iran. To indicate the environmental impact of these phenomena, the characterization of dust storm loads is vital. The objective of this study is to identify the mineralogical and chemical composition, trace elements, and microorganisms of dust particles deposited during a springtime dust storm event over the west of Iran to obtain total suspended particulate. Dust samples were collected from four cities in the west of Iran during dust storms in two spring seasons of 2011 and 2012. In addition to determining the sources of dust samples on the dates of sampling, synthetic approaches including remote sensing technique of dust detection, physical–meteorological model called HYSPLIT, and analysis of weather map were used. XRD analyses of airborne dust samples indicate that the mineralogy of airborne dusts is dominated by calcite and quartz; additionally, gypsum, albeit, muscovite, clinochlore, and dolomite are other minerals in springtime dust storm. XRF analyses indicate that the most important chemical components of airborne dusts are SiO2, CaO, Al2O3, Fe2O3, and MgO. The Atomic Absorption analysis was performed to determine the concentration of heavy metals including Fe, Cr, Pb, Zn, Cd, Co, Cu, and Ni. Concentration of heavy metals was Fe > Zn > Cr > Ni > Pb > Cu > Co > Cd, respectively, and average concentration of heavy metals on Middle East springtime dust storm (MESDS) occurrences were higher than values proposed by the World Health Organization. Microorganism analysis shows that the Bacillus species (41.25 %) is dominant, then Micrococcus (10.3 %), Staphylococcus sp. (7.61 %), Klebsiella (4 %), Escherichia coli (2.7 %), and Enterobacter sp. (1.8 %); Aspergillus sp. (21.07 %), Candida albicans (5.7 %), Rhizopus (2.24 %), Penicillium sp. (1.04 %), and Mucor (0.89 %) genera were fungal species that were isolated in the (MESDS). Basic sources for scattering of dust in the west and southwest of Iran are Iraqi desert, desert lands in the north and northeast of Arabian Peninsula, east and southeast of Syria, also occasionally Sahara desert and Khuzestan province in southwestern of Iran.

A DEVELOPED WAVELET-BASED LOCAL LINEAR NEURO FUZZY MODEL FOR THE FORECASTING OF CRUDE OIL PRICE

International Journal of Energy and StatisticsVol. 01, No. 03, pp. 171-193 (2013) No AccessA DEVELOPED WAVELET-BASED LOCAL LINEAR NEURO FUZZY MODEL FOR THE FORECASTING OF CRUDE OIL PRICEHOSSEIN IRANMANESH, MAJID ABDOLLAHZADE, ARASH MIRANIAN, and HOSSEIN HASSANIHOSSEIN IRANMANESHDepartment of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Search for more papers by this author , MAJID ABDOLLAHZADEInstitute for International Energy Studies, Tehran, Iran Search for more papers by this author , ARASH MIRANIANDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, Pardis Branch, Islamic Azad University, Pardis new city, Tehran, Iran Search for more papers by this author , and HOSSEIN HASSANIExecutive Business Centre, The Business School, Bournemouth University, BH8 8EB, UK Search for more papers by this author https://doi.org/10.1142/S2335680413500129Cited by:3 PreviousNext AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail AbstractIn this paper, a wavelet-based local linear neuro fuzzy model is developed for the multi-step ahead crude oil price prediction. In the proposed approach, the price series is first decomposed into the approximation and detail components by means of discrete wavelet transform. The approximation and detail components are then modeled by two individual neuro fuzzy local linear models to obtain final results. A comprehensive evaluation study is carried out using various series with different structures and features. The forecasting results have been compared to the recent results available in the literature. The results confirm the superiority of the proposed method in terms of forecasting performance and accuracy criteria.Keywords:Local linear neuro fuzzyDiscrete wavelet transformCrude oil priceForecasting References Y. Fan, Q. Liang and Y. M. Wei, Energy Economics 30(3), 889 (2006). Crossref, Google ScholarL. Yu, S. Wang and K. K. Lai, Energy Economics 30(5), 2623 (2008). Crossref, Google ScholarH. G. Huntington, The Energy Journal 15(2), 1 (1994). Crossref, Google ScholarL. Özbeka and U. 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FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited By 3Predicting Dust Storm Occurrences with Local Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model: A Case Study in Ahvaz City, IranHossein Iranmanesh, Mehdi Keshavarz and Majid Abdollahzade21 May 2017A neuro-fuzzy approach with harmony search optimization for short-term wind power forecastingArash Miranian and Majid Abdollahzade3 July 2014 | International Journal of Energy and Statistics, Vol. 02, No. 02On the autocorrelation function and its applicability in energy modellingChristina Beneki10 April 2014 | International Journal of Energy and Statistics, Vol. 02, No. 01 Recommended Vol. 01, No. 03 Metrics History Received 10 June 2013 Revised 12 July 2013 Accepted 26 July 2013 Published: 28 September 2013 KeywordsLocal linear neuro fuzzyDiscrete wavelet transformCrude oil priceForecastingPDF download