A DEVELOPED WAVELET-BASED LOCAL LINEAR NEURO FUZZY MODEL FOR THE FORECASTING OF CRUDE OIL PRICE

Abstract

International Journal of Energy and StatisticsVol. 01, No. 03, pp. 171-193 (2013) No AccessA DEVELOPED WAVELET-BASED LOCAL LINEAR NEURO FUZZY MODEL FOR THE FORECASTING OF CRUDE OIL PRICEHOSSEIN IRANMANESH, MAJID ABDOLLAHZADE, ARASH MIRANIAN, and HOSSEIN HASSANIHOSSEIN IRANMANESHDepartment of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Search for more papers by this author , MAJID ABDOLLAHZADEInstitute for International Energy Studies, Tehran, Iran Search for more papers by this author , ARASH MIRANIANDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, Pardis Branch, Islamic Azad University, Pardis new city, Tehran, Iran Search for more papers by this author , and HOSSEIN HASSANIExecutive Business Centre, The Business School, Bournemouth University, BH8 8EB, UK Search for more papers by this author https://doi.org/10.1142/S2335680413500129Cited by:3 PreviousNext AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail AbstractIn this paper, a wavelet-based local linear neuro fuzzy model is developed for the multi-step ahead crude oil price prediction. In the proposed approach, the price series is first decomposed into the approximation and detail components by means of discrete wavelet transform. The approximation and detail components are then modeled by two individual neuro fuzzy local linear models to obtain final results. A comprehensive evaluation study is carried out using various series with different structures and features. The forecasting results have been compared to the recent results available in the literature. The results confirm the superiority of the proposed method in terms of forecasting performance and accuracy criteria.Keywords:Local linear neuro fuzzyDiscrete wavelet transformCrude oil priceForecasting References Y. Fan, Q. Liang and Y. M. Wei, Energy Economics 30(3), 889 (2006). Crossref, Google ScholarL. Yu, S. Wang and K. K. Lai, Energy Economics 30(5), 2623 (2008). Crossref, Google ScholarH. G. Huntington, The Energy Journal 15(2), 1 (1994). Crossref, Google ScholarL. Özbeka and U. 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FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited By 3Predicting Dust Storm Occurrences with Local Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model: A Case Study in Ahvaz City, IranHossein Iranmanesh, Mehdi Keshavarz and Majid Abdollahzade21 May 2017A neuro-fuzzy approach with harmony search optimization for short-term wind power forecastingArash Miranian and Majid Abdollahzade3 July 2014 | International Journal of Energy and Statistics, Vol. 02, No. 02On the autocorrelation function and its applicability in energy modellingChristina Beneki10 April 2014 | International Journal of Energy and Statistics, Vol. 02, No. 01 Recommended Vol. 01, No. 03 Metrics History Received 10 June 2013 Revised 12 July 2013 Accepted 26 July 2013 Published: 28 September 2013 KeywordsLocal linear neuro fuzzyDiscrete wavelet transformCrude oil priceForecastingPDF download