Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Causality Test Research Articles

Sağlık Harcamalarının Medikal Ürün İhracatı Üzerindeki Etkisi: E7 Ülkeleri Örneği

It was aimed to analyze the impact of health expenditures on medical product exports in E7 countries (Turkey, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico) in the developing countries group in the paper. In this context, it was first performed the MADF unit root test to test the stationarity of the series in the study covering the period 2000-2017. Then it was performed the Swamy S test to determine the homogeneity and heterogeneity of the series. Finally, it was applied the Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel causality test to determine the causality relationship between the series. As a result of the findings, it was determined that the series were stationary and heterogeneous in the first difference and that there was a bidirectional causality relationship between the two variables. In other words, both health expenditures affected medical product exports and medical product exports affected health expenditures. In this perspective, when countries' health expenditures increase, medical product exports also increase, and when medical product exports increase, health expenditures also increase.

BRICS-T Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerinde Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketiminin Etkisi

In this study, it is aimed to investigate the effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth in BRICS countries and Turkey. In this context, panel data analysis in the form of coefficient estimates and causality analysis was applied using annual data for the period 1990-2018. Within the scope of the determinants of economic growth, besides the renewable energy consumption variable which forms the basis of the study, the variables of capital accumulation, population, trade openness, foreign direct investments and non-renewable energy consumption are also used. According to the coefficient estimation results made with the fixed effects model, it has been determined that the increase in renewable energy consumption has negative and significant effects on economic growth. On the other hand, it has been determined that the increase in non-renewable energy consumption has a positive effect. In addition, it is among the findings that the increase in capital accumulation has a positive effect on economic growth and the increase in trade openness has a negative effect. Finally, Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test results revealed that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from renewable energy consumption to economic growth. Accordingly, it was seen that the growth hypothesis was valid among the variables.

CAUSALİTY RELATİONSHİP BETWEEN INFLATİON AND INCOME DİSTRİBUTİON: A STUDY ON DEVELOPİNG OECD COUNTRİES

Gelir eşitsizliği insanların gündelik hayatını önemli ölçüde sosyo-ekonomik açıdan etkilemektedir. Bu nedenle, hangi faktörlerin gelir dağılımını etkilediğini bilmek, söz konusu eşitsizliği gidermek anlamında önem taşımaktadır. Literatürde gelir dağılımını etkileyen başlıca faktör olarak enflasyon oranları gösterilmektedir. Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan 8 OECD ülkesinin 2007-2019 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilerini kullanarak enflasyon ve gelir dağılımı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak ele alınan ülke grubu için hem enflasyon oranlarından gelir dağılımına doğru hem de gelir dağılımından enflasyon oranlarına doğru herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır. Diğer bir ifade ile analize dâhil edilen ülkelerde enflasyon oranları gelir eşitsizliğinin sebebi olmadığı gibi gelir eşitsizliği de enflasyonun sebebi değildir.

Does globalization augment environmental degradation through the channel energy and FDI? Evidence from BRI initiatives

From 2000 through 2020, this study examines the impacts of FDI, economic development, and globalization on E.D. in a sample of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) nations. Data for the inquiry is gathered using a variety of tests, including the Westerlund cointegration test, the Dynamic seemingly unrelated regression (DSUR) long-run panel estimate approach, and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test. Panel unit root tests reveal which variables are hidden where and after initial difference and long-run association documents have been processed using conventional and error-correcting methods. DSUR discovered a positive relationship between long-term energy use and environmental degradation, implying that greater energy consumption and total output would exacerbate the current condition of environmental degradation. Foreign direct investment (FDI), financial expansion, and globalization benefit the global economy more than harm the environment. Aside from the unidirectional impacts of financial development, globalization, and economic expansion on environmental degradation, directional causality studies demonstrate the presence of a feedback hypothesis that helps to explain these causal relationships. This research demonstrates the need for Belt and Road (B.R.) energy measures to improve energy efficiency.

Nexus between globalization, energy consumption and globalization in belt and road countries

This research evaluates the effects of FDI, economic growth, and globalization on E.D. in a sample of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries from 2000 to 2020. Various techniques, including the Westerlund cointegration test, the Dynamic seemingly unrelated regression (DSUR) long-run panel estimate methodology, and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test, are used to collect data for the investigation. After initial difference and long-run association documents have been analyzed using conventional and error-correcting techniques, panel unit root tests indicate which variables are hidden where and why. DSUR revealed a positive correlation between long-term energy use and environmental degradation, meaning that increased energy consumption and production will aggravate the existing state of environmental deterioration. Foreign direct investment (FDI), financial growth, and globalization are more beneficial to the global economy than detrimental to the environment. In addition to the unidirectional effects of financial development, globalization, and economic growth on environmental degradation, directional causality investigations reveal the existence of a feedback hypothesis that helps to explain these causal links. This study highlights the need of Belt and Road (B.R.) energy measures to enhance energy efficiency.

Sustainable development of West African economies to achieve environmental quality.

The deterioration of environmental quality spurred on by rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is the main threat to reducing carbon footprint. Africa has recently been identified as having experienced excessive temperatures above pre-industrial standards. Despite its lower GHG emissions, Africa continues to be among the most impacted areas of the world by global warming. However, this research scrutinizes the effect of human capital and trade openness on the ecological footprint (ECF) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using data from West Africa from 1995 to 2016. The research used dynamic ordinary least squares, fully modified ordinary least squares, and paired Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests for its assessment. The study's findings are as follows: (1) The study found that human capital and trade openness decrease the ecological footprint in West Africa; (2) globalization reduces CO2 emissions while also increasing the ecological footprint; (3) the analysis reveals that natural resources and the population improve environmental quality in West Africa, while biocapacity reduces the ecological footprint and improves CO2 emissions in the region; and (4) the study revealed the bidirectional causality between biocapacity, the population, and ECF. The study also revealed the bidirectional causality between biocapacity, population, human capital, natural resources, and CO2 emissions, while ecological footprint is unidirectionally causally related to globalization, human capital, and trade capital. Unidirectional causality runs from the ecological footprint, globalization, and trade openness to CO2 emissions. To ensure their countries have a long-term future, policymakers in West Africa should take action to limit overexploitation of natural resources and encourage people to live more sustainably. The study suggested that West African countries adopt "green growth" policies and improve technology to help their economies and the environment.

How effective are renewable energy, tourism, trade openness, and foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions? An EKC analysis for ASEAN countries.

The effects of renewable energy, tourism, foreign direct investment, and income on environmental degradation have attracted the attention of many researchers, but to date, no researcher has examined the concurrent effects of these variables on CO2 emissions for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Motivated by this gap in the literature, this study aims to analyze the determinants of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions under the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for six ASEAN countries. To this end, the study utilizes the panel ARDL estimator and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test from 1995 to 2018. The results show that (i) tourism and foreign direct investment increase CO2 emissions. (ii) Real income and trade openness reduce environmental degradation. (iii) Since the long-run income elasticity is lower than the short-run, the EKC hypothesis is valid. (iv) Renewable energy reduces carbon emissions only in the short term and has no effect on environmental quality in the long term. There is also no causal relationship between renewable energy and environmental degradation. This could be due to the ineffective deployment of renewable energy in ASEAN countries. Based on these results, this study suggests that ASEAN countries should effectively use renewable energy, reduce the amount of fossil energy in the tourism sector, and support economic development to achieve a sustainable environment.

Investigating the role of research development and renewable energy on human development: An insight from the top ten human development index countries

The human development index (HDI) is an inclusive indicator for measuring the standard of living with greater emphasis on development than the gross domestic product. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of economic growth, renewable energy consumption, research and development expenditure, and total natural resource rent on the HDI in the top ten human development countries. For this reason, we used datasets for 1996–2007 and employed a series of advanced econometric methods [the Driscoll-Kraay, feasible generalized least square (FGLS), and generalized method of moments (GMM)] to mitigate the existing cross-sectional problem. This study demonstrates that economic growth, renewable energy consumption, research and development expenditure, and total natural resources rent tested positive on the HDI. While the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests showed a bidirectional relationship between the HDI and economic growth. In addition, a unidirectional causality relationship was found from the HDI to renewable energy consumption, and to research and development expenditure. The policy implication highlighting the directions for the use of variables in the context of sustainability is also discussed.

The role of renewable, non-renewable energy consumption, trade, economic growth, and urbanization in achieving carbon neutrality: A comparative study for South and East Asian countries.

This study uses a comparative approach for comparing the nexus of economic growth, renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, urbanization, trade, and CO2 emissions for South and East Asian countries from 2000 to 2018. The short- and long-run connections between the variables are explored using the dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) CS-ARDL approach, and the causal linkages are assessed using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (DH) panel causality test. The data show that the factors have long-term relationships. The findings show that nonrenewable energy consumption and economic growth increase long-term CO2 emissions in South Asia, but trade and use of renewable energy consumption reduce CO2 emissions in the short term. Long-term causal relationships between CO2 emissions, renewable energy use, economic growth, and trade are also revealed by the South Asian causality test. In East Asia, economic growth, NREC, trade, and urbanization increased CO2 emissions in the short and long run, while REC appears to reduce CO2 emissions. According to the causality analysis, long-run bidirectional causation exists between CO2 emissions, renewable energy use, economic growth, and trade. Furthermore, policy suggestions may be made, such as using renewable energy sources to lessen CO2 emissions and improving education and corruption to forecast economic growth in the examined areas.

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ile Uluslararası Ticaret Arasındaki İlişki: N-11 Ülkeleri Örneği

Küresel ekonomide entegrasyon sürecinin hızlanması sonucunda ülkelerin ticari ve ekonomik ilişkileri artmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, küreselleşme neticesinde ülkelerin artan düzeyde gerçekleştirdikleri doğrudan yabancı yatırımların uluslararası ticaretleri üzerindeki etkilerinin analiz edilmesi, büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında N-11 ülkelerine gerçekleştirilen ve bu ülkelerden yurt dışına çıkan doğrudan yabancı yatırımların, bu ülkelerin ihracat ve ithalatları üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler, Kao (1999), Pedroni (1999, 2004) ve Westerlund (2005) tarafından ortaya koyulan panel eşbütünleşme analizleri ile test edilmiştir. Sonuçlara göre, N-11 ülkelerinin uluslararası ticaretleri ile hem ülkeye giren, hem de diğer ülkelere gerçekleştirilen doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerinin ortaya koyulması amacıyla gerçekleştirilen Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi sonuçları, N-11 ülkelerine doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişleri ve ihracat ile ithalat arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Öte yandan, N-11 ülkelerinde doğrudan yabancı sermaye çıkışlarından ihracat ile ithalata doğru ise tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Asymmetric and moderating role of industrialisation and technological innovation on energy intensity: Evidence from BRICS economies

The present research explores the effect of economic growth, technological innovation, trade openness, and industrialisation on energy intensity in the BRICS economies using a dataset from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, this study evaluates the combined effects of industrialisation and technological innovation on energy intensity. We employed second-generation approaches such as Westerlund co-integration, method of moments quantile regression (MMQR), and panel causality. In addition, we conducted a robustness analysis by using the long-run estimators including the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and fixed effect-ordinary least square (FE-OLS). The MMQR allows for a heterogeneous income-energy intensity nexus at different conditional quantile distributions of energy intensity, which the conventional mean regressions would generally ignore. The empirical evidence from the MMQR confirms that economic growth and industrialisation contribute to higher energy intensity; meanwhile, trade openness and technological innovation decrease the energy intensity. The combined effects of industrialisation and technological innovation reduce energy intensity in the BRICS economies. The outcomes from the MMQR are supported by the DOLS, FMOLS, and FE-OLS estimators. Furthermore, the causal interaction between the energy intensity drivers is also investigated using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests, which reveal that industrialisation and technological innovation Granger cause energy intensity. Meanwhile, a bidirectional causal interaction between economic growth and energy intensity is found, as well as between trade openness and energy intensity. Policymakers must design industrial policies that promote technological innovation, which is the mechanism of inhibiting industrialisation.

Can environmental tax promote renewable energy consumption? — An empirical study from the typical countries along the Belt and Road

This paper explores the effects of environmental tax on renewable energy consumption. Fifteen typical countries along the Belt and Road are selected to build panel autoregressive distributed lag model based on the data of 1998–2019 years. According to pooled mean group estimator, the short-term impact of environmental tax on renewable energy consumption in these countries is negative. In the long run, for 1% increase in environmental tax, renewable energy consumption will increase by 1.201%. Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test confirms the existence of bidirectional causality between environmental tax and renewable energy consumption. For the canonical cointegration regression approach, 1% increase in environmental tax, the share of renewable energy consumption in the final energy will increase by 0.021%. The robustness of the long-term relationship is tested by fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares. Linearity tests reveal the nonlinear impact of environmental tax on renewable energy consumption. The paths of environmental tax to improve environmental quality are put forward.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey

The COVID-19 pandemic, a new type of coronavirus that the world faced, broke out at the end of 2019 causing numerous impacts on all countries. Particularly the European Union (EU) countries were notably affected by COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and stringency policies. Furthermore, although Turkey was successful in combating many areas of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the EU countries, its international trade was affected. This paper empirically investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on selected EU countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Czechia) and Turkey’s exports with monthly panel data analyses over the March 2020–December 2021 period. The findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic had negative impacts on exports in the EU and Turkey. For example, a 1% increase in COVID-19 stringency reduced exports by 0.102%, and a 1% increase in total COVID-19 cases caused a decline in exports of 1.620%. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test results show a two-way causality relationship between COVID-19 cases and export levels. In addition, unidirectional causality linkage exists from the COVID-19 stringency index. Therefore, causality test results confirm an impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exports during the stringency measures and lockdowns.

BANKING SECTOR AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Purpose- The most important tool in economic development is investments. Funds are needed for investments. Funds are obtained through domestic savings or foreign sources. Resources are known to be limited. For this reason, strong financial systems are needed. The banking sector is an important element in the financial system. The banking sector provides the collection and use of savings. In other words, the banking sector is closely related to economic development. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic development and the banking sector. Methodology- BRICS-T countries are discussed in the study. Panel data for the 2001-2019 period were used. Human Development Index and domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) were used as variables. First, cross-section dependence tests were performed. Then unit root tests were applied. Heterogeneity was determined by delta test. In the last stage, causality test was applied. Causality was examined by the panel causality test developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). Findings- Cross-sectional dependence tests showed that there is crossal-section dependence in the variables and the model. The stationarity of the series was obtained by the CADF test, which is one of the second generation panel unit root tests that takes into account the cross-sectional dependence. Delta test results showed that the slope coefficients were heterogeneous. It has been determined that the cross-sectional dependence and slope coefficients of the model are heterogeneous. The results of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test applied showed that there is causality between the banking sector and economic development. Conclusion- The results of the research show that the banking sector contributes to the development of individuals. The increase in human development shows that there are educated, healthy and high-income people in a country. If the banking sector affects human development, human development activities will increase. High-quality human development will increase the level of technological knowledge, productivity in production, and therefore economic growth. Keywords: Banking sector, causality, economic development, human development index, panel data analysis JEL Codes: B26, G20, G21

The ICT, financial development, energy consumption and economic growth nexus in MENA countries: dynamic panel CS-ARDL evidence

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the nexus between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, financial development, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) diffusion and economic growth, in MENA countries, over the period 1980–2018. We use the novel Cross-Section augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) estimation technique which accounts for cross-sectional dependence and cross-country heterogeneity issues. We find a positive impact of renewable and non-renewable energy on economic growth, but a negative effect of financial development on economic growth. We also find a positive and statistically significant influence of ICT on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Renewable energy and ICT diffusion can be considered important determinants of improved economic activity, job creation and better environmental quality. Pairwise Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests were used to examine the causal relations among the variables. The findings of this study have considerable policy implications for the selected countries.

Determinants of Advancement in Information Communication Technologies and its Prospect under the role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Globalization

Globalization has been witnessed to bring numerous benefits to the advancement in information communication technologies. However, to analyze this relationship mostly aggregate globalization and country-specific studies have been conducted, without considering the importance of disaggregate globalization for advancement in information communication technologies. Therefore, this article aims to examine the impact of aggregate and disaggregate globalization on the advancement of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the case of 87 developed and developing countries for 2000-2019. Panel least square and pairwise Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests have been used for empirical analysis. We have divided our empirical analysis into six models, i.e. aggregate globalization model for whole sample countries, disaggregate globalization model for whole sample countries, aggregate globalization model for developed countries, disaggregate globalization model for developed countries, aggregate globalization model for developing countries, and disaggregate globalization model for developing countries. Our estimated outcomes of the aggregate globalization model for the whole sample countries and developing countries show that globalization has a positive and significant impact on the advancement of information and communication technology. Our outcomes show that economic globalization, social globalization, political globalization, and availability of physical capital have a positive and significant impact on the advancement of ICT in developing countries. In the case of developed countries, aggregate globalization, political globalization, and social globalization reduce the advancement of ICT, whereas the availability of physical capital and economic globalization are raising the advancement of ICT. The results of the causality test show that all the variables have a causal relationship with each other except some variables of developed countries in the disaggregate globalization model. Our outcomes recommend that developing countries should promote aggregate and disaggregate globalization to achieve the desired level of ICT.

Examining the impact of cargo and ancillary revenues on net profit for full service carrier airlines

In this study, the relationships between cargo revenues, ancillary revenues and net profitability of airline companies were examined in the examples of three full-service airline companies (Turkish Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines). Methodologically, a logarithmic econometric model was used in which cargo revenues and ancillary revenues were included as independent variables and net profit as the dependent variables. The data used for the period 2014Q1-2019Q4 were collected from the annual reports on the official websites of related airline companies and The International Air Transport Association (IATA). EViews 10 and STATA-15 versions, which are the most modern econometric analysis programs that can be used to control the stationarity, were used in the analysis of the data. In addition to econometric analyzes and general statistics, Cross Section dependency tests, CADF second-generation unit root tests, Delta slope homogeneity tests, Panel cointegration analysis, Westerlund Panel cointegration tests and Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality tests and Breusch Pagan LM Tests were also performed. The study revealed that there is cointegration between cargo revenues, ancillary revenues and net profit, and there is a one-way causality relationship from both cargo revenues to net profit and from ancillary revenues to net profit. The study also indicated a positive correlation between cargo revenues and ancillary revenues and net profit. In other words, cargo revenues and ancillary revenues have a positive effect on the net profit of airline companies. In addition, the study found that aviation ancillary revenues provide an important resource for airline companies; furthermore, two US companies are among the top three companies with the highest revenues in the world in terms of cargo and ancillary revenues; also showed that Turkish Airlines' ancillary revenues are lower than those of these two US companies. On the other hand, the study showed that the contribution of Turkish Airlines cargo revenues to net profit is much higher than the other two companies.

Nexus between energy efficiency finance and renewable energy development: Empirical evidence from G-7 economies

Renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) have become hot topics among academic and business players in recent history in relation to the question of sustainable growth. Considering this backdrop, this research evaluates the EE of RE and the influence of RE on energy potential risk from both static and dynamic viewpoints in G-7 nations from 2005 to 2019. To quantify EE, a GVAR is utilized. Our results show no substantial impact on energy security risk from wind, hydropower, or total RE sources based on the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) projections for G-7 nations. Fuel and hydropower have a unidirectional causality to energy security risk, while manufacturing output, fuel consumption, financial interdependence, and urbanization have bidirectional causalities on energy security risk as per the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test results. The findings show that G-7 countries have varying levels of EE. The average EE of G-7 countries is large (with most member countries falling short of the average), coupled with a large standard deviation (suggesting wide EE disparities among member countries). Dynamic productivity is also affected by the 2007 global economic crisis that was sparked in the US. Besides that, we show that the G-7 nations use both “catch-up” and “border shift” tactics to boost EE and to reduce G-7-specific energy security risks.

Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Wagner ve Keynes Kapsamında Analizi: AB Ülkeleri Örneği

Determining the direction of the relationship between public expenditures and economic growth has been among the issues that have been discussed for many years. In the paper, the relationship between public expenditures and economic growth was investigated within the scope of Wagner's Law and Keynes Theory, using annual data for the period of 1995-2019 for EU countries. For this purpose, Westerlund (2008) Durbin-Hausman cointegration test and Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test were applied to test the related theories. According to the findings, it has been concluded that the Wagner Law is generally valid in EU countries.

Role of technological innovation and globalization in BRICS economies: policy towards environmental sustainability

ABSTRACT The present study aims to discover the impact of political risk, globalization and technological innovation on the ecological footprint in the BRICS economies by employing a dataset covering the period between 1990 and 2017 and incorporating non-renewable energy utilization and economic growth as other regressors through the utilization of panel quantile regression. The outcomes established that economic growth, non-renewable energy usage, political risk and technological innovation increase ecological footprint. Conversely, globalization significantly decreases the ecological footprint. The panel ordinary least squares approach serves as a sensitivity test for the robustness of the analysis. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test confirmed that a bidirectional causal interaction exists between ecological footprint and the regressors of technological innovation, globalization, non-renewable energy and economic growth, while a one-way causal interconnection runs from ecological footprint to political risk. Notably, the general policy suggestion indicates the need for policymakers to intensively coordinate efforts to combat the serious environmental deterioration in the BRICS economies.