Dry Land Surface Research Articles

Potential Predictability of Two-Year Droughts in the Missouri River Basin

Abstract Potential predictability of 2-yr droughts indicated by low runoff in the consecutive April–September seasons in the upper Missouri River basin (UMRB) and lower Missouri River basin (LMRB) is examined with observed estimates and climate models. The majority of annual runoff is generated in April–September, which is also the main precipitation and evapotranspiration season. Physical features related to low April–September runoff in both UMRB and LMRB include a dry land surface state indicated by low soil moisture, low snowpack indicated by low snow water equivalent, and a wave train across the Pacific–North American region that can be generated internally by the atmosphere or forced by the La Niña phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. When present in March, these features increase the risk of low runoff in the following April–September warm seasons. Antecedent low soil moisture significantly increases low runoff risks in each of the following two April–September, as the dry land surfaces decrease runoff efficiency. Initial low snow water equivalent, especially in the Missouri River headwaters of Montana, generates less runoff in the subsequent warm season. La Niña increases the risk of low runoff during the warm seasons by suppressing precipitation via dynamically induced atmospheric circulation anomalies. Model simulations that differ in their radiative forcing suggest that climate change increases the predictability of 2-yr droughts in the Missouri River basin related to La Niña. The relative risk of low runoff in the second April–September following a La Niña event in March is greater in the presence of stronger radiative forcing. Significance Statement Drought spanning consecutive years in the upper Missouri River basin (UMRB) and lower Missouri River basin (LMRB) poses threats to a region whose economy depends on reliable water quantity to support transportation and recreation, adequate water supply for irrigated agriculture, and sufficient streamflow to generate hydroelectric power. We examined physical features in March related to low runoff in the following April–September—low soil moisture, low snow water equivalent, and La Niña events—and examined their effect on the risk of 2-yr drought occurrences. These physical features lead to sustained impacts on the surface water balance. Low snow water equivalent generates less runoff, low soil moisture reduces the runoff efficiency of converting precipitation into runoff, and La Niña inhibits warm-season precipitation and runoff via atmospheric circulation anomalies.

Dryland hydroclimatic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

Drylands are highly vulnerable to climate change due to their fragile ecosystems and limited ability to adapt. In contrast to the global drying after tropical volcanic eruptions shown previously, we demonstrate that large tropical volcanic eruptions can induce significant two-year hydroclimatic wetting over drylands by employing the last millennium simulations. During this wetting period, which extends from the first to the third boreal winter after the eruption, several hydroclimatic indicators, such as self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman-Monteith equation for potential evapotranspiration (scPDSIpm), standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), aridity index (AI), top-10cm soil moisture (SM10cm), and leaf area index (LAI), show significant positive anomalies over most drylands. The primary contribution to the wetting response is the potential evapotranspiration (PET) reduction resulting from dryland surface cooling and reduced solar radiation, as well as a weak contribution from increased precipitation. The latter is due to the wind convergence into drylands caused by slower tropical cooling compared to drylands. The wetting response of drylands to volcanic eruptions also demonstrates some benefits over the global hydrological slowdown resulting from stratospheric aerosol injection, which replicates the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions to address global warming.

Integrating temperature gradient-based 3T and resistance-based models for simulating evapotranspiration and its components

The accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and its major components [e.g., transpiration (Tr) and soil evaporation (Ev)] requires an understanding of complex soil–plant-atmosphere interactions. The temperature gradient-based three temperature (3T) model for simulating the dynamics of Ev and Tr has no requirement for resistance terms and its use of simple input variables (i.e., temperature and radiation) allows its application to both field studies and remote sensing. However, reference temperature is a key requirement for the 3T model and approaches for obtaining accurate reference temperature and the implications of different reference temperature choices on ET estimates remain poorly understood. This study improved a resistance-based model applicable to a wide range of climatic/ecosystem conditions and integrated it with the 3T model to predict ET and Tr. A novel numerical approach was used to estimate the reference temperature under dry land surface scenarios. The two models provided similar predictions of Ev, Tr, and ET at the four sites provided that the available energy for the canopy (e.g., net radiation) and ground soil (e.g., net radiation and ground heat flux) was constrained within the framework of the energy balance. Alternatively, the accuracy of simulations of Ev and ET by the 3T model significantly declined due to systematic mismatching of input drivers (temperature and radiation) under dry and wet scenarios. We emphasize that 3T is working better when input temperature and radiation under dry and wet land conditions were systematically matched within the framework of energy balance. The results of this study provide a promising novel temperature-gradient method for detecting canopy water stress.

Spectral determinants of biological soil crusts in the Gurbantungut Desert

ABSTRACT As thick crustal layers form on dryland surfaces, they affect the spectral information that is originally dominated by sand or rock. The spectral characteristics of organic matter replace the mineral elements as prominent features. In this case, the growth patterns and spectral characteristics of biological soil crusts (BSCs) can be observed. Satellite spectral data have been used for BSC spatial information extraction. However, the dynamic changes in BSCs can affect the spectra. Two aspects are involved here: moisture change and BSC growth. When these changes are superimposed with BSC succession, they lead to an increase in spectral complexity. This study explored three BSC types, including algal crust, lichen and moss, and discussed their spectra. By selecting BSC samples at different succession states and by combining coverage and simulated precipitation, the response of the spectra to BSC coverage and the spectral characteristics of BSCs under dry and wet conditions were measured and analysed. In addition, the spectral index variations caused by coverage and moisture of three types of BSCs were discussed, where the spectral indices include the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), brightness index (BI), crust index (CI), and biological soil crust index (BSCI). The results showed that the succession, moisture and growth of BSCs were the main factors affecting their spectra. BSC types can be distinguished in a particular climatic context to determine the degree of BSC succession. Precipitation in the monitoring areas needs to be considered to avoid the effects of dry and wet BSC variations on remote sensing monitoring. The coverage of different types of BSCs in mixed pixels can be determined by multiple indices. The results of this study will provide a basis for monitoring BSCs using satellite spectral information to guide regional ecological management.

Warming Overwhelms the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

AbstractWhile the relationships between dry land surface conditions, heat, and aridity have been well‐established, few studies have addressed whether global warming will affect the ability of wet conditions to moderate high temperatures and atmospheric aridity. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we demonstrate that absolute changes in the monthly maximum temperature distribution during Central North American summers strongly outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation and soil moisture conditions. Although wet conditions nearly always prevent concurrent extreme temperatures in the baseline period, these conditions are 40%–48% and 96%–98% less effective at 1 and 2° of global warming, respectively. However, high precipitation and soil moisture partially retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions below historical thresholds at 1–2° of warming. Our results highlight the growing vulnerability of Central North America to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

Aspect-dependent bedrock weathering, cliff retreat, and cliff morphology in a hyperarid environment

Deciphering aspect-related hillslope asymmetry can enhance our understanding of the influence of climate on Earth’s surface morphology and the linkage between topographic morphology and erosion processes. Although hillslope asymmetry is documented worldwide, the role of microclimatic factors in the evolution of dryland cliffs has received little attention. Here, we address this gap by quantifying aspect-dependent bedrock weathering, slope-rill morphology, and sub-cliff clast transport rates in the hyperarid Negev desert, Israel, based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived topography, clast-size measurements, and cosmogenic 10Be concentrations. Cliff retreat rates were evaluated using extrapolated profiles from dated talus flatirons and 10Be measurements from the cliff face and sub-cliff sediments. We document systematic, aspect-dependent patterns of south-facing slopes being less steep and finer-grained relative to east- and north-facing aspects. In addition, cliff retreat and clast transport rates on slopes of the south-facing aspect are faster compared to the other aspects. Our data demonstrate that bedrock weathering of the cliff face and the corresponding grain size of cliff-derived clasts delivered to the slopes constitute a first-order control on cliff retreat and sediment transport rates. We demonstrate that the morphology of the cliff and the pattern of bedrock weathering co-vary with the solar radiation flux and hence that cliff evolution in hyperarid regions is modulated by aspect-dependent solar radiation. These results help to better understand interactions between climate and dryland surface processes.

Evolution of land surface feedbacks on extreme heat: Adapting existing coupling metrics to a changing climate

Episodes of extreme heat are increasing globally, and dry land surface states have been implicated as an amplifying factor in several recent heat waves. Metrics used to quantify land-heat coupling in the current climate, relating sensible heat fluxes to near-surface air temperature, are applied to multimodel simulations of the past, present, and future climate to investigate the evolving role of land–atmosphere feedbacks in cases of extreme heat. Two related metrics are used: one that describes the climatological state of land-heat coupling and one that gives an episodic estimate of land feedbacks, here defined as the metric’s value at the 90th percentile of monthly mean temperatures. To provide robust statistics, seasonal multimodel medians are calculated, with the significance of changes determined by the degree of model consensus on the sign of the change. The climatological land-heat coupling mirrors other metrics of land–atmosphere interaction, peaking in transition regions between arid and humid climates. Changes from preindustrial to recent historical conditions are dominated by decreased land surface controls on extreme heat, mainly over the broad areas that have experienced expanded or intensified agriculture over the last 150 years. Future projections for increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations show a waning of areas of weakened land-heat feedbacks, while areas of increasing feedbacks expand over monsoon regions and much of the midlatitudes. The episodic land-heat metric is based on anomalies, which creates a quandary: how should anomalies be defined in a nonstationary climate? When the episodic coupling is defined relative to the means and variances for each period, a broadly similar evolution to the climatological metric is found, with historically dominant decreases giving way to widespread moderate increases in future climate scenarios. Basing all statistics on preindustrial norms results in huge increases in the coupling metric, showing its sensitivity to the definition of anomalies. When the metric is reformulated to isolate the impact of changing land and temperature variability, the tropics and Western Europe emerge as regions with enhanced land feedbacks on heatwaves, while desert areas and much of the remainder of the midlatitudes show reduced land-heat coupling.

Improvement of summer precipitation simulation with indirect assimilation of spring soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractSoil moisture can be an important preceding signal in seasonal precipitation prediction because of its persistence and influence on the energy and water balance between land and atmosphere. The thawing process of frozen ground on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during spring makes it difficult to accurately simulate soil variables (e.g., soil moisture and temperature) due to defective parameterizations in numerical models during spring. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of soil moisture correction using an indirect nudging scheme to simulate the coupling between spring soil moisture and the subsequent precipitation with an advanced research version of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The results without assimilation show that extreme cold and dry land surface states during spring cause a large bias in the spatial pattern of summer precipitation over almost the entire TP. However, the experiments with indirect assimilation in spring show that the spatial pattern of summer precipitation improved significantly. This comparison emphasizes the importance of correcting the spring soil moisture during the freeze–thaw period to significantly adjust the heat and water vapour exchange between the land and atmosphere. Additionally, changes in the circulation of the subtropical–tropical jet, vertical ascent, and region‐related moisture recycling can support an active convection environment over the eastern TP, thereby increasing summer precipitation. Furthermore, the pattern shift in water vapour convergence in summer highlights the regional horizontal transportation of water vapour. The differences between experiments with and without deep‐soil temperature nudging illustrate the significance of soil temperature in soil moisture simulation in the freeze–thaw process. More so, the deep‐soil temperature nudging scheme requires in‐depth studies to correct its variation and quantify its degree of impact on soil moisture.

INTEGRATING INSAR COHERENCE AND BACKSCATTERING FOR IDENTIFICATION OF TEMPORARY SURFACE WATER, CASE STUDY: SOUTH KALIMANTAN FLOODING, INDONESIA

Abstract. Accurate and reliable information about the spatiotemporal level of surface water can be provided by Temporary Surface Water (TSW) monitoring. TSW is defined as a waterbody experiencing frequent drying phases which also correspond to surfaces frequently affected by flooding. In Indonesia, flooding is a frequent disaster, which is about 30% of the total number of disasters that occurred. In mid-January 2021, South Kalimantan Province, Indonesia was hit by a flood. The loss impact of this disaster is estimated at Rp. 1.349 trillion. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), one type of remote sensing, can be used to map the spatial distribution of flood inundation. SAR has the advantage of not being constrained by day or night, weather conditions, and cloud cover or fog. Nowadays, the availability of Sentinel-1 SAR images can increase the use of SAR imagery for flood mapping. Specular reflections that occur on the smooth water surface produce a darker color in the SAR backscattering data, which makes floodwater distinguishable on dry land surfaces. However, inundation between buildings can cause changes in the backscattering value. Several studies have shown that the Interferometric SAR coherence method is a good method for mapping floods in urban areas. The main goal of this study is thus to map Temporary Surface Water (flood) of the South Kalimantan flood event in Indonesia using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery. With backscattering data, flood in a non-urban area can be mapped, but it is difficult to map flood in an urban area. Therefore, we will try to integrate InSAR coherence and SAR backscattering data in order to map flood in the whole study area. The result shows that using backscattering data, bare soil or non-urban flood inundation in the whole study area can be mapped with an overall accuracy of about 76.4%. Yet, flood in an urban area cannot be mapped only with backscattering data. The result from coherence imagery can map flood inundation in an urban area. Thus, integration from both of them can map flood inundation in the whole study area, either urban or non-urban.

Recent decrease in summer precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula closely links to reduction in local moisture recycling

Abstract. The inherently dry summer climate of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is undergoing drought exacerbated by more intense warming and reduced precipitation. Although many studies have studied changes in summer climate factors, it is still unclear how the changes in moisture contribution from the sources lead to the decrease in summer precipitation. This study investigates the differences in the IP precipitationshed from 1980 to 1997 and 1998 to 2019 using the Water Accounting Model-2layers with ERA5 data, and assesses the role of local moisture recycling and external moisture in reducing summer precipitation. Our findings indicate that the moisture contributions from the local IP, and from the west and the east of the precipitationshed, contributed 1.7, 3.6 and 1.1 mm per month less precipitation after 1997 than before 1997, accounting for 26 %, 57 % and 17 % of the main source supply reduction, respectively. The significant downward trend of the IP local moisture recycling closely links to the disappearance of the wet years after 1997 as well as the decrease in local contribution in the dry years. Moreover, the feedback between the weakened local moisture recycling and the drier land surface can exacerbate the local moisture scarcity and summer drought.

Simulating the Effects of Land Surface Characteristics on Planetary Boundary Layer Parameters for a Modeled Landfalling Tropical Cyclone

This study examined whether varying moisture availability and roughness length for the land surface under a simulated Tropical Cyclone (TC) could affect its production of precipitation. The TC moved over the heterogeneous land surface of the southeastern U.S. in the control simulation, while the other simulations featured homogeneous land surfaces that were wet rough, wet smooth, dry rough, and dry smooth. Results suggest that the near-surface atmosphere was modified by the changes to the land surface, where the wet cases have higher latent and lower sensible heat flux values, and rough cases exhibit higher values of friction velocity. The analysis of areal-averaged rain rates and the area receiving low and high rain rates shows that simulations having a moist land surface produce higher rain rates and larger areas of low rain rates in the TC’s inner core. The dry and rough land surfaces produced a higher coverage of high rain rates in the outer regions. Key differences among the simulations happened as the TC core moved over land, while the outer rainbands produced more rain when moving over the coastline. These findings support the assertion that the modifications of the land surface can influence precipitation production within a landfalling TC.

The impacts of humans on geomorphology

Abstract This chapter discusses the factors that have led to an increasing interest in the human impact in geomorphology, and then discusses the literature that appeared between c. 1960 and 2000. These developments were in four main areas: (i) intellectual and policy-related; (ii) technological developments that alter geomorphological processes; (iii) demographic trends; and (iv) proliferation of techniques for the study of landform and process change. Much work was undertaken on landforms produced by construction and excavation. Interest also developed in accelerating ground subsidence, which is a widespread phenomenon that creates engineering problems. Indeed, with increasing exploitation of tundra areas for such activities as oil exploitation, there was an increasing interest in the problems associated with permafrost. Rivers have also been greatly impacted. Humans have modified sediment transport by rivers in two ways. First, as a result of accelerated soil erosion, the delivery of sediment to rivers has increased. Secondly, burgeoning dam construction has caused sediment to be trapped in reservoirs. Far-reaching changes in channel form have been produced by land-use and land-cover changes. In addition to non-deliberate changes to river systems, there have been a whole range of deliberate modifications (e.g. channelization). Some valley bottoms areas have suffered from accelerated sedimentation while others have become incised with gullies (‘arroyos’). Studies have indicated an increasing incidence of mass movements. These have been attributed to such factors as deforestation, road cuts, changes in slope drainage and irrigation of farm land. Much work has also been undertaken on wind erosion of dryland surfaces. Human activities, most notably air pollution, have changed the nature and rate of weathering, although enhanced weathering by salt can also be accelerated by irrigation. Large numbers of people live in coastal zones, and have had a major impact on coastal landforms and processes. Many of the world's shorelines have been eroding and the complex mix of causes, natural and anthropogenic, that could be responsible have been analysed. Finally, since the 1980s there has been a growing realization of the importance of global heating for geomorphological phenomena.

Temporal dynamics of dryland soil CO2 efflux using high-frequency measurements: Patterns and dominant drivers among biocrust types, vegetation and bare soil

Soil respiration is an important component of the carbon (C) cycle and a major contributor to total ecosystem C efflux. Knowledge of the factors that drive soil respiration in drylands is limited, despite these regions represent more than 40% of the Earth land’s surface. In these environments, biocrusts play an important role in CO2 exchange towards and from soils. However, the temporal dynamics and main drivers of CO2 efflux in biocrusts compared to other representative dryland covers such as bare soil and soil under perennial grasses, has not been fully investigated. In this study, we measured the soil CO2 molar fraction (χc) at 2 and 5 cm depths in representative surface covers (cyanobacteria and lichen dominated biocrusts, soil under the alpha grass Macrochloa tenacissima and bare soil) from a semiarid area in SE Spain (Tabernas desert, Almeria) using small solid-state CO2 sensors, during one hydrological year. We determined the CO2 efflux (Fs) from the 0 to 5 cm soil profile using the gradient method. Our results show that soil χc and Fs were low in all surface covers (on average, 464 ppm at 5 cm) during dry soil periods (soil moisture <0.05 m3 m−3). χc and subsequent Fs rapidly increased after rainfall, and showed the highest values in the soil under grass (M. tenacissima) and lichen biocrusts. Time series analysis of Fs allowed identifying periodic patterns in Fs strongly related to moisture and temperature periodicities. Moisture was the main driver for Fs on timescales of weeks and months, while temperature was the main driver on daily scales. Moisture exerted a greater influence on Fs in lichen and soil under grass, while temperature had a greater effect on Fs in cyanobacteria and bare soil. Estimated annual CO2 efflux was 633 g CO2 m−2 y-1 in the soil under M. tenacissima, 450 g CO2 m−2 y-1 in the lichen biocrust, 268 g CO2 m−2 y-1 in the cyanobacterial biocrust and 188 g CO2 m−2 y-1 in the bare soil. On the whole, we demonstrate the suitability of automated Fs measurements for characterising rapid changes in C efflux from dryland surfaces due to changing environmental conditions, which can help improve C predictions in drylands under current climate change.

Three Regimes of Temperature Distribution Change Over Dry Land, Moist Land, and Oceanic Surfaces

AbstractClimate model simulations project different regimes of summertime temperature distribution changes under a quadrupling of CO2 for dry land, moist land, and oceanic surfaces. The entire temperature distribution shifts over dry land surfaces, while moist land surfaces feature an elongated upper tail of the distribution, with extremes increasing more than the corresponding means by ∼20% of the global mean warming. Oceanic surfaces show weaker warming relative to land surfaces, with no significant elongation of the upper tail. Dry land surfaces show little change in turbulent sensible (SH) or latent (LH) fluxes, with new balance reached with compensating adjustments among downwelling and upwelling radiative fluxes. By contrast, moist land surfaces show enhanced partitioning of turbulent flux toward SH, while oceanic surfaces show enhanced partitioning toward LH. Amplified warming of extreme temperatures over moist land surfaces is attributed to suppressed evapotranspiration and larger Bowen ratios.

Macrofossil evidence of alder (Alnus sp.) in Britain early in the Late Glacial Interstadial: implications for the northern cryptic refugia debate

ABSTRACTWood macrofossil remains of alder and willow/poplar have been recovered from a sediment sequence in the valley of the Turker Beck in the Vale of Mowbray, North Yorkshire. These remains have yielded radiocarbon dates early in the Devensian Late Glacial (14.7–14k cal a bp), equivalent to the early part of the Greenland Interstadial (GI‐1e) of the GRIP ice‐core record. These are the earliest dates recorded for the presence of alder in the Late Glacial in the British Isles. Associated biological remains have provided a palaeoenvironmental record for this early part of the Greenland Interstadial, generally indicative of open environments dominated by herbaceous taxa on both the wetland and dryland surfaces. However, stands of alder, birch and willow woodland were also present, and indicate the possibility that such tree species survived in cryptic refugia in Britain as elsewhere in northern Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum. The absence of alder pollen at Turker Beck, in a sequence in which its macrofossil remains are relatively abundant, lends support to the view that pollen can be a poor indicator of the presence of tree species in Late Glacial sequences in northern and western Europe.

Observational Evidence of State‐Dependent Positive and Negative Land Surface Feedback on Afternoon Deep Convection Over the Southern Great Plains

AbstractThe detection of soil moisture‐precipitation feedback is complicated by the dependence of feedback sign on atmospheric state and cloud types. We evaluated responses of convective clouds to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) from satellite and ground‐based measurements over the Southern Great Plains in summer months. Strong responses to EF were inferred only after accounting for tropospheric states supporting systematically positive or negative responses. State dependence (inferred from controlled model experiments) explains the weak response found in previous studies. The probability of transitions from shallow to deep cumulus, and subsequent precipitation onset, increases by 58% over drier surfaces in weakly stratified environments having deeper boundary layers. Boundary layer dynamics play a more important role than low‐level relative humidity in these environments. Wetter surfaces yield increased deep convection in moist and thermally stratified environments. The distinct pathways of convective initiation over dry and wet land surfaces can play important roles in drought onset and termination.

A new approach for measuring surface hydrological connectivity

AbstractThe development of surface hydrological connectivity is a key determinant of flood magnitude in drylands. Thresholds in runoff response may be reached when isolated runoff‐generating areas connect with each other to form continuous links to river channels, enabling these areas to contribute to flood hydrographs. Such threshold behaviour explains observed nonlinearities and scale dependencies of dryland rainfall–runoff relationships and complicates attempts at flood prediction. However, field methods for measuring the propensity of a surface to transmit water downslope are lacking, and conventional techniques of infiltration measurement are often inappropriate for use on non‐agricultural drylands. Here, we argue for a reconceptualization of the dryland surface runoff process, suggesting that the downslope transfer of water should be considered alongside surface infiltration; that is, there is a need for the “aggregated” measurement of infiltration and overland flow hydraulics. Surface application of a set volume of water at a standardized rate generates runoff that travels downslope; the distance it travels downslope is determined by infiltration along the flow, integration of flow paths, and flow resistance. We demonstrate the potential of such a combined measurement system coupled with structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry to identify surface controls on runoff generation and transfer on dryland hillslopes, with vegetation, slope, surface stone cover, and surface roughness all having a significant effect. The measurement system has been used on slopes up to 37° compared with the flat surface typically required for infiltration methods. On average, the field workflow takes ~10–15 min, considerably quicker than rainfall simulation. A wider variety of surfaces can be sampled with relative ease, as the method is not restricted to stone and vegetation‐free land. We argue that this aggregated measurement represents surface connectivity and dryland runoff response better than standard hydrological approaches and can be applied on a much greater variety of dryland surfaces.

The Origin of Soil Moisture Evaporation “Regimes”

Abstract Evaporation plays an extremely important role in determining summertime surface temperature variability over land. Observations show the relationship between evaporation and soil moisture generally conforms to the Budyko “two regime” framework; namely, that evaporation is limited by available soil moisture in dry climates and by radiation in wet climates. This framework has led climate models to different parameterizations of the relationship between evaporation and soil moisture in wet and dry regions. We have developed the Simple Land–Atmosphere Model (SLAM) as a tool for studying land–atmosphere interaction in general, and summertime temperature variability in particular. We use the SLAM to show that a negative feedback between evaporation and surface temperature gives rise to the two apparent evaporation “regimes” and provide analytic solutions for evaporative cooling anomalies that demonstrate the nonlinear impact of soil moisture perturbations. Stemming from the temperature dependence of vapor pressure deficit, the feedback we identify has important implications for how transitions between wet and dry land surfaces may impact temperature variability as the climate warms. We also elucidate the impacts of surface moisture and insolation perturbations on latent and sensible heat fluxes and on surface temperature variability.

Assimilating optical satellite remote sensing images and field data to predict surface indicators in the Western U.S.: Assessing error in satellite predictions based on large geographical datasets with the use of machine learning

Indicators of vegetation composition, vegetation structure, bare ground cover, and gap size in drylands potentially gives information about the condition of ecosystems, in part because they are strongly related to factors such as erosion, wildlife habitat characteristics, and the suitability for some land uses. Field data collection based on points does not produce spatially continuous information about surface indicators and cannot cover vast geographic areas. Remote sensing is possibly a labor- and time-saving method to estimate important biophysical indicators of vegetation and surface condition at both temporal and spatial scales impossible with field methods. Regression models based on machine learning algorithms, such as random forest (RF), can build relationships between field and remotely sensed data, while also providing error estimates. In this study, field data including over 15,000 points from the Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring (AIM) and Landscape Monitoring Framework (LMF) programs on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands throughout the Western U.S., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters, MODIS nadir BRDF-adjusted reflectance (NBAR), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) surface reflectance products with ancillary data were used as predictor variables in a k-fold cross-validation approach to RF modeling. RF regression models were built to predict fourteen indicators of vegetation cover and height, as well as bare gap parameters. The RF model estimates exhibited good correlations with independent samples, with a low bias and a low RMSE. External cross-validation showed good agreement with out-of-bag (OOB) errors produced by RF and also allowed mapping prediction uncertainty. Predicted distribution maps of the surface indicators were produced by using these relationships across the arid and semiarid Western U.S. The bias and RMSE distribution maps show that the sample insufficiency and unevenly pattern of sample strongly impact the accuracy of the RF regression and prediction. The results from this study clearly show the utility of RF as a means to estimate multiple dryland surface indicators from remotely sensed data, and the reliability of the OOB errors in assessing the accuracy of the predictions.

Circumglobal Response to Prescribed Soil Moisture over North America

AbstractA series of idealized prescribed soil moisture experiments is performed with the atmosphere/land stand-alone configuration of the Community Earth System Model, version 1, in an effort to find sources of predictability for high-impact stationary wave anomalies observed in recent boreal summers. We arbitrarily prescribe soil water to have a zero value at selected domains in the continental United States and run 100-member ensembles to examine the monthly and seasonal mean response. Contrary to the lack of a substantial response in the boreal winter, the summertime circulation response is robust, consistent, and circumglobal. While the stationary wave response over the North America and North Atlantic sectors can be well explained by the reaction of a linear dynamical system to heating anomalies caused by the imposed dry land surface, nonlinear processes involving synoptic eddies play a crucial role in forming the remote response in Eurasia and the North Pacific Ocean. A number of other possible factors contributing to the circulation responses are also discussed. Overall, the experiments suggest that, in the boreal summer, soil moisture may contribute to the predictability of high-impact stationary wave events, which can impact regions that are great distances from these source regions.