Observational Evidence of State‐Dependent Positive and Negative Land Surface Feedback on Afternoon Deep Convection Over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract

AbstractThe detection of soil moisture‐precipitation feedback is complicated by the dependence of feedback sign on atmospheric state and cloud types. We evaluated responses of convective clouds to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) from satellite and ground‐based measurements over the Southern Great Plains in summer months. Strong responses to EF were inferred only after accounting for tropospheric states supporting systematically positive or negative responses. State dependence (inferred from controlled model experiments) explains the weak response found in previous studies. The probability of transitions from shallow to deep cumulus, and subsequent precipitation onset, increases by 58% over drier surfaces in weakly stratified environments having deeper boundary layers. Boundary layer dynamics play a more important role than low‐level relative humidity in these environments. Wetter surfaces yield increased deep convection in moist and thermally stratified environments. The distinct pathways of convective initiation over dry and wet land surfaces can play important roles in drought onset and termination.