Massive Open Online Courses Dropout Research Articles

Temporal analysis for dropout prediction using self-regulated learning strategies in self-paced MOOCs

MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) have usually high dropout rates. Many articles have proposed predictive models in order to early detect learners at risk to alleviate this issue. Nevertheless, existing models do not consider complex high-level variables, such as self-regulated learning (SRL) strategies, which can have an important effect on learners' success. In addition, predictions are often carried out in instructor-paced MOOCs, where contents are released gradually, but not in self-paced MOOCs, where all materials are available from the beginning and users can enroll at any time. For self-paced MOOCs, existing predictive models are limited in the way they deal with the flexibility offered by the course start date, which is learner dependent. Therefore, they need to be adapted so as to predict with little information short after each learner starts engaging with the MOOC. To solve these issues, this paper contributes with the study of how SRL strategies could be included in predictive models for self-paced MOOCs. Particularly, self-reported and event-based SRL strategies are evaluated and compared to measure their effect for dropout prediction. Also, the paper contributes with a new methodology to analyze self-paced MOOCs when carrying out a temporal analysis to discover how early prediction models can serve to detect learners at risk. Results of this article show that event-based SRL strategies show a very high predictive power, although variables related to learners' interactions with exercises are still the best predictors. That is, event-based SRL strategies can be useful to predict if e.g., variables related to learners' interactions with exercises are not available. Furthermore, results show that this methodology serves to achieve early powerful predictions from about 25 to 33% of the theoretical course duration. The proposed methodology presents a new approach to predict dropouts in self-paced MOOCs, considering complex variables that go beyond the classic trace-data directly captured by the MOOC platforms.

Understanding Dropouts in MOOCs

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have developed rapidly in recent years, and have attracted millions of online users. However, a central challenge is the extremely high dropout rate — recent reports show that the completion rate in MOOCs is below 5% (Onah, Sinclair, and Boyatt 2014; Kizilcec, Piech, and Schneider 2013; Seaton et al. 2014).What are the major factors that cause the users to drop out?What are the major motivations for the users to study in MOOCs? In this paper, employing a dataset from XuetangX1, one of the largest MOOCs in China, we conduct a systematical study for the dropout problem in MOOCs. We found that the users’ learning behavior can be clustered into several distinct categories. Our statistics also reveal high correlation between dropouts of different courses and strong influence between friends’ dropout behaviors. Based on the gained insights, we propose a Context-aware Feature Interaction Network (CFIN) to model and to predict users’ dropout behavior. CFIN utilizes context-smoothing technique to smooth feature values with different context, and use attention mechanism to combine user and course information into the modeling framework. Experiments on two large datasets show that the proposed method achieves better performance than several state-of-the-art methods. The proposed method model has been deployed on a real system to help improve user retention.

MOOC Dropout Prediction Using a Hybrid Algorithm Based on Decision Tree and Extreme Learning Machine

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have boomed in recent years because learners can arrange learning at their own pace. High dropout rate is a universal but unsolved problem in MOOCs. Dropout prediction has received much attention recently. A previous study reported the problem of learning behavior discrepancy leading to a wide range of fluctuation of prediction results. Besides, previous methods require iterative training which is time intensive. To address these problems, we propose DT-ELM, a novel hybrid algorithm combining decision tree and extreme learning machine (ELM), which requires no iterative training. The decision tree selects features with good classification ability. Further, it determines enhanced weights of the selected features to strengthen their classification ability. To achieve accurate prediction results, we optimize ELM structure by mapping the decision tree to ELM based on the entropy theory. Experimental results on the benchmark KDD 2015 dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of DT-ELM, which is 12.78%, 22.19%, and 6.87% higher than baseline algorithms in terms of accuracy, AUC, and F1-score, respectively.

Student dropout prediction in massive open online courses by convolutional neural networks

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have given global learners access to quality educational resources, but the persistent high dropout rates problem has a serious impact on their educational effectiveness. Therefore, how to predict the dropout in MOOCs and make advance intervention is a hot topic in the research of MOOCs in recent years. Traditional methods rely on handcrafted features, the workload is heavy, and it is difficult to ensure the final prediction effect. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes an end-to-end dropout prediction model based on convolutional neural networks to predict the student dropout problem in MOOCs and it integrates feature extraction and classification into a single framework, which transforms the original timestamp data according to different time windows and automatically extracts features to achieve better feature representation. Extensive experiments on a public dataset show that our approach can achieve results comparable to other dropout prediction methods on precision, recall, F1 score, and AUC score.

Protocol for a mixed-methods evaluation of a massive open online course on real world evidence

IntroductionIncreasing number of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are being used to train learners at scale in various healthcare-related skills. However, many challenges in course delivery require further understanding, for...

An Integrated Framework With Feature Selection for Dropout Prediction in Massive Open Online Courses

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have flourished in recent years, which is conducive to the redistribution of high-quality educational resources globally. However, the high dropout rate in the course of operation has seriously affected its development. Therefore, in order to improve the degree of completion, it is an effective way to study how to effectively predict the dropout in MOOCs and intervene in advance. Traditional methods rely on manually extracted features, which is difficult to guarantee the final prediction effect. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes an integrated framework with feature selection (FSPred) to predict the dropout in MOOCs, which includes feature generation, feature selection, and dropout prediction. Specifically, FSPred applies a fine-grained feature generation method in days to generate features and then uses an ensemble feature selection method to select valid features and feed them into a logistic regression model for prediction. Extensive experiments on a public data set have shown that FSPred can achieve the comparable results with other dropout prediction methods in terms of precision, recall, F1 score, and AUC score. Finally, through the analysis of the features of the final selection, the suggestions for the construction of the MOOCs are put forward.

Refining success and dropout in massive open online courses based on the intention–behavior gap

In this paper we present an alternative typology for determining success and dropout in massive open online courses (MOOCs). This typology takes the perspectives of MOOC-takers into account and is based on the their intentions and subsequent behaviour. An explorative study using two MOOCs was carried out to test the applicability of the typology. Following the traditional approach based on course completion to identify educational success, success rates were 6.5 and 5.6%. The success rates from the perspectives of the MOOC-taker were 59 and 70%. These findings demonstrate that merely looking at course completion as a measure for success does not suffice in the context of MOOCs. This change in addressing MOOC success and dropout provides an alternative view and demonstrates the importance of MOOC-takers’ perspectives.

OpenSAP: Evaluating xMOOC Usage and Challenges for Scalable and Open Enterprise Education

<div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>The openSAP University is a co-innovative initiative founded in 2013 by SAP SE in partnership with the Hasso-Plattner-Institute (HPI) located in Potsdam, Germany. With its new course offering, SAP responds to a rising demand for scalable knowledge transfer due to the digital transformation by making use of the Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) format. This paper provides a brief introduction to the first Enterprise MOOC platform openSAP, including details about the learning environment and the underlying platform, different team roles and usage statistics. In addition, the topic of dropouts in enterprise MOOCs will be addressed and discussed. A standardized calculation model for enterprise MOOCs to measure completion and consumption rates is proposed. The paper closes with an outlook about the future work on enterprise MOOCs. </span></p></div></div></div>

Temporal predication of dropouts in MOOCs: Reaching the low hanging fruit through stacking generalization

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have recently taken center stage in discussions surrounding online education, both in terms of their potential as well as their high dropout rates. The high attrition rates associated with MOOCs have often been described in terms of a scale-efficacy tradeoff. Building from the large numbers associated with MOOCs and the ability to track individual student performance, this study takes an initial step towards a mechanism for the early and accurate identification of students at risk for dropping out. Focusing on struggling students who remain active in course discussion forums and who are already more likely to finish a course, we design a temporal modeling approach, one which prioritizes the at-risk students in order of their likelihood to drop out of a course. In identifying only a small subset of at-risk students, we seek to provide systematic insight for instructors so they may better provide targeted support for those students most in need of intervention. Moreover, we proffer appending historical features to the current week of features for model building and to introduce principle component analysis in order to identify the breakpoint for turning off the features of previous weeks. This appended modeling method is shown to outperform simpler temporal models which simply sum features. To deal with the kind of data variability presented by MOOCs, this study illustrates the effectiveness of an ensemble stacking generalization approach to build more robust and accurate prediction models than the direct application of base learners.