Drop In Prices Research Articles

HOME ECONOMICS: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE IN POST COVID PANDEMIC

The theme for this year’s conference: Home Economics: Past, Present and Future in Post-Covid Pandemic is therefore considered very apt and significant in addressing the multidisciplinary concerns that will bring about innovative ideas, knowledge and skills geared towards improving the quality of life of individuals, families, communities and society at large.The 11th March 2020 is a date that is significant as the earth experienced a global remarkable change to a new normal which affected the entire human race, professional practices and activities of men and women in unimaginable ways across the nations of the world. The World Health Organization [WHO] (2020a) officially declared the viral infection emanating from a novel corona virus on the 11th of march, 2020 which was previously named COVID-19, a global pandemic (Worldometer, 2021). The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global economic recession which has resulted in a dramatic loss of livelihoods and income on a global scale (World Bank, 2020a).The spread of COVID-19 already had a high human cost, and with public health systems struggling to cope, these costs will continue to grow. This has led to significant trade disruptions, drops in commodity prices, and the tightening of financial conditions in many countries. These effects have already led to large increases in unemployment and underemployment rates and will continue to threaten the survival of many firms worldwide (Loayza and Pennings, 2020). Furthermore, the International Labour Organization (ILO) stated that more than the equivalent of 400 million full-time jobs was lost in the second quarter of 2020 with a number of countries enforcing lockdown measures (ILO, 2020a). In Nigeria, a similar or higher scenario of its effects was recorded.This is also having complex consequences for professionals in the field of Home Economics. In order to address the main focus of this topic, emphasis will be laid in the following areas.• Brief Historical perspective of Home Economics practice• Home Economics and its components• Challenges of Learning Situations in the past and Present.• The future of Home Economics in post covid-19 Era.• Innovations in Home Economics classrooms (Digital Learning Platforms).• Problems of Online learning• Optimal Productivity & Sustainability in Teaching & Learning Home Economics Education

Asymmetrically examining the impact of green finance and renewable energy consumption on environmental degradation and renewable energy investment: The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the Chinese economy

The recent global recession due to Covid-19 has led to a drop in natural resource prices, which has contracted energy demand. Amid this concern, environmentally sustainable renewable energy projects have become uncompetitive and an obstacle to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Following the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model proposed by Shin et al. (2014), to asymmetrically explore the impact of green bonds on renewable energy investment and environmental pollution and the impact of renewable energy consumption on environmental degradation in China over the period 1970–2020.​ The results show that the expansion of green bonds (GB+) significantly promotes renewable energy investment and reduces environmental pollution, while the contraction of green bonds (GB−) significantly reduces renewable energy investment and stimulates environmental damage. Likewise, expansion of renewable energy consumption (REC+) significantly reduced environmental degradation, while contraction of renewable energy consumption (REC−) significantly contributed to environmental degradation. Moreover, the result also validates the existence of inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis in China The VECM Granger causality test indicate that renewable energy investment, green finance, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emission, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have long term causality. Chinese policymakers must focus on strengthening green finance, which will encourage renewable energy investment and renewable energy generation. Moreover, renewable electricity output greatly facilitates renewable energy investment, so China must innovate policies to take into account renewable electricity rather than fossil fuel generation in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Empowerment of Farmer Institutions in Improving Farmer’s Bargaining Position

The drop in global rubber prices worsens farmer-level rubber selling prices, affecting rubber farmers’ economics. One of the efforts to develop the farmer’s economy is strengthening rubber farmers’ institutional aspects. This study will examine institutional strengthening to stabilize rubber prices at the farmer level and increase farmers’ negotiating power. This study employs a qualitative case study methodology. Data were descriptively examined. The findings of this study explain that the rubber prices decline in rubber farmers’ economies does not improve from time to time. The decline in rubber prices resulted in land conversion, decreased production, and fewer rubber farmers. On the other hand, rubber marketing institutions have improved rubber farmers’ price stability bargaining position and increased rubber farmers’ economy. This research implies that rubber marketing institutions through farmer associations can increase farmers’ bargaining position, maintain rubber price stability and contribute to the empowerment of rubber farmer commodity institutions.

Training on the Utilization of Lime to Empower the Lime Farmers in Bolo Village, Gresik

Lime (Citrus aurantifolia (Christm.) Swingle) is one of the important agricultural commodities for residents in the Bolo village, Gresik. The resident of Bolo Village owns an average of 1/4 hectare of lime plantations. However, the price of lime is not stable. In the harvest season, when conditions become surplus in the market, lime prices often drop, causing losses for the farmers. Lack of knowledge about lime product processing is also an obstacle in the utilization and processing of crops. This community service activity aims to improve the knowledge and skills of citrus farmers in Bolo Village to utilize and process lime crops into Home Industry products, so they do not suffer losses when the lime price drops. Activities are carried out through learning using interactive lecture methods and training through product manufacturing demos. The successful indicator was carried out by evaluating the participants' level of understanding before and after the activity. The training activities significantly increased the participants' knowledge and experience. In addition, this activity also obtained data on the needs of lime farmers. It is hoped that this data can be used for the continuation of the next activity or can also be used by the local government, which wants to help advance agriculture and product diversification in the village of Bolo.

Synthesizing the market clearing mechanism based on the national power grid using hybrid of deep learning and econometric models: Evidence from the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) market

In liberalized electricity markets, formulating the techno-economic functions of each market's participant restricts the resulting market clearing mechanism (MCM) into the market equilibrium. This study aims to synthesize the MCM based on a new perspective that correlates the nationwide energy supply and demand equilibrium with the wholesale market's prices. The nationwide energy capacities are collected from all the Japanese transmission and distribution utilities from 2016 to 2022. The demand curve is structured based on estimating the price elasticity of demand (PED) considering regional and hourly cross-sections using two-stage econometrics. The supply curve is structured based on the merit order effect of all existing energy production technologies. A long short-term-memory forecasting model is employed to capture the non-stationarity and -linearity of the prices. The estimated PED varies spatiotemporally from −0.017 to −0.25. From the synthesized MCMs, Kyushu region's price drop to nearly zero is justified by the 93.5% clean supply and the use of regional interconnections. Nationally, nuclear, hydroelectric, and hydro-storage contributions to the supply mix and the balancing market launching have mitigated the price spike of 2022. In addition, the planned share increase of baseload resources in 2030 drives the prices lower with higher stability versus the current electricity mix.

Does time matter? A multi-level assessment of delayed energy transitions and hydrogen pathways in Norway

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undeniably disrupted the EU's energy system and created a window of opportunity for an acceleration of the low-carbon energy transition in Europe. As the trading bloc's biggest gas supplier, Norway faces the imminent threat of fast-depleting gas reserves and declining value for its exports. Norway is trying to beat the clock by aggressively exploring more petroleum, therefore delaying its energy transition. In anticipation of the future drop in gas prices, Norway is counting on blue hydrogen to valorise its gas resources, before gradually shifting to green hydrogen export. Against this background, this article seeks to understand how changes in the EU's energy landscape have affected the energy export sector and low-carbon hydrogen export developments in Norway from a multi-level perspective. Using the exploratory scenario approach, the article assesses the implications of the different petroleum exploration outcomes on the development of the low-carbon hydrogen export market in Norway. The findings show that despite gas discoveries, there is an urgent need for a phase-out plan for the Norwegian petroleum sector. For low-carbon hydrogen to play an important role in Norway's energy transition, time is of the essence and action needs to be taken during this window of opportunity. An industrial sector and its value chain could take 25 years to transform, which means that actions and policies for a full transformation pathway need to take place in Norway by 2025 to be ready for a climate-neutral Europe in 2050.

Indirect Costs of Financial Distress

Abstract We estimate the indirect costs of financial distress due to lost sales by exploiting real estate (RE) shocks and cross-supplier variation in RE assets and leverage. We show that for the same client buying from different suppliers, the client’s purchases from distressed suppliers decline by an additional 13% following a drop in local RE prices. The effect is more pronounced in more competitive industries, manufacturing, durable goods, less-specific goods, and when the costs of switching suppliers are low. Our results suggest that clients reduce their exposure to suppliers in financial distress.

Forecasting extreme negative returns in gold and silver: A discrete‐duration approach to POT models

AbstractSudden and massive drops in precious metal prices severely impact the investment risk on these commodity markets. In this study, we examine the dynamics of extreme negative returns on gold and silver, as well as propose the discrete‐duration version of the autoregressive conditional duration peaks‐over‐threshold (ACD‐POT) model for measuring market risk. The model is tailored for the dynamics of extreme events in precious metal markets; this is because it can exhibit both the strong clustering of extreme‐event days, and the serial correlation in the magnitudes of extreme losses. From an econometric perspective, our approach complements the existing dynamic versions of POT models; this is so that the time interval (i.e., duration) between the extreme negative returns is treated not as a continuous variable, but as a discrete one. The discrete hazard function in our model represents the daily extreme loss event probability and it can be used to derive one‐day‐ahead forecasts of both the value at risk and expected shortfall for investments in gold and silver. Formal backtesting methods show that the discretized version of the POT model has a superior in‐sample fit and forecasting performance than the continuous‐duration POT models.

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2023: Inflation im Kern hoch – Angebotskräfte jetzt stärken

Abstract The leading economic research institutes have raised their forecast for growth in German economic output in the current year to 0.3%. In the fall of 2022, they were still expecting a decline of 0.4%. The economic setback in the winter half-year 2022/2023 is likely to have been less severe than feared in the fall. The main reason for this is a smaller loss of purchasing power as a result of a significant drop in energy prices. Nevertheless, the rate of inflation will fall only slowly from 6.9% last year to 6.0% this year.

The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices

This paper estimates how overall consumer spending responds to changes in gasoline prices. It uses the differential impact across consumers of the sharp drop in gasoline prices in 2014 for identification. This estimation strategy is implemented using comprehensive, high-frequency, transaction-level data for a large panel of individuals. The average estimated marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of unanticipated, permanent shocks to income is approximately one. This estimate accounts for the elasticity of demand for gasoline and potential slow adjustment to changes in prices. The high MPC implies that changes in gasoline prices have large aggregate effects. (JEL D12, G51, L11, L71, L81, Q35)

The Path of the Internal Public Debt and its Potential to Influence the Money Supply Iraq Case Study for the Period (2016-2020)

This research focuses on the effects of the internal public debt, whether direct or indirect, in Iraq, and in view of the rentierism that characterizes the Iraqi economy, and in financial crises, especially when prices drop, it remains interested in its budgets to finance the increasing public spending through the internal public debt ,The greater the size of that debt, the greater the public spending, and the role of the internal public debt in the money supply in Iraq comes through the government financing the public budget deficit through some internal public debt instruments, especially bonds and treasury transfers. The researchers reached the existence of such a relationship in Iraq, but it was in a state of fluctuation, due to the presence of other variables that prevent it, and to achieve the goals sought by the researchers, the research included three sections, the first focused on a review of the most important concepts for the research variables, and the second was about analyzing Those variables, and in the last section included an analysis of the relationship between the internal debt instruments and the money supply in Iraq for the period (2016-2020).

Large Bets and Stock Market Crashes

Abstract Some market crashes occur because of significant imbalances in demand and supply. Conventional models fail to explain the large magnitudes of price declines. We propose a unified structural framework for explaining crashes, based on the insights of market microstructure invariance. A proper adjustment for differences in business time across markets leads to predictions which are different from conventional wisdom and consistent with observed price changes during the 1987 market crash and the 2008 sales by Société Générale. Somewhat larger-than-predicted price drops during 1987 and 2010 flash crashes may have been exacerbated by too rapid selling. Somewhat smaller-than-predicted price decline during the 1929 crash may be due to slower selling and perhaps better resiliency of less integrated markets.

Undisclosed material inflation risk

We identify many major U.S. corporations that are highly exposed to inflation risk. Yet, although the SEC legally requires disclosing possible risk factors, more than 61% of the inflation-exposed corporations do not disclose inflation risk. However, after being sued in a securities class action lawsuit, while all firms increase the length of their reported risk factor texts, only inflation-exposed firms are more likely to begin disclosing inflation risk. Simulations using calibrated parameters from our models reveal that 2%–6% inflation shocks over the subsequent three years result in market cap damages of $0.9 to $2.8 trillion for shareholders of inflation-exposed firms that never disclosed this risk. The inadequate inflation risk disclosure holds after allowing risk to be time varying, controlling for firm/industry characteristics, and/or exploiting a quasi-natural experiment that identifies causal effects and controls for possible unobservable factors. The evidence is consistent with corporate managers paying inadequate attention to inflation risk. Our framework enables identification and evaluation of stock price drop damages, especially for firms with inadequate risk disclosures, possibly improving disclosure practices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy transmission.

SENTIMENT AND INDIVIDUAL STOCK PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

This paper investigates the effect of investor investment sentiment on individual stock returns in China. We find that investment sentiment is positively associated with stock performance contemporaneously. The Granger Causality test shows that investor sentiment is a driving force of stock price movement but not the other way around. Our constructed VAR model further suggests that the change in investor sentiment in the lagged period does not significantly affect the current stock return. In addition, both the Impulse Response and the Variance Decomposition analysis provide evidence that the stock price will increase right after a positive sentiment shock, and then follow a price drop until an intrinsic value comes up. Overall, the investor sentiment factor has a strong explanatory power to explain the variation in stock return.

The Impact of the Increased Interest Rate on Nike's Stock Price Based on Stata

In 2022, The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point in its most aggressive hike since 1994, which gets US dollars more expensive to foreigners, and foreign currencies less valuable to the US. But in the meantime, Nike can’t rise its price in foreign countries immediately, thus with the same quantity of items being sold, their price decreases due to the exchange rate difference, and their profit diminishes. Since a stock’s value represent the ability to profit in the future, when Nike's ability to profit decreases, people tend to sell its stock and when the demand for Nike’s stock is smaller than that of supply, its price drops. In addition, as the interest rate increases, the mass is inclined to invest in bonds, and when bonds get more attractive people to invest less in stocks, thus as one of the listed corporations, owing to the demand for Nike’s stock price decrease, its stock price decreases. Whereas at the same time as the interest rate increase, more foreign capital is intended to invest in the US, thus the stock price of Nike might also increase. Thus whether the increased interest rate contributes to Nike's stock price is controversial. This paper mainly used a series of statistical models including VAR and ARMA-GARCH models etc. to see the net effect of interest rate on Nike's stock price, and then included the future study needed and limitations of this research.

Whether the Air Transport is Going through the Difficulties: Evidence from Dynamic Changes in Brent Oil Prices

In 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 caused a sharp drop in international crude oil prices. The outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict in 2022 has also had a great impact on the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. So far as an important source of energy, the fluctuation of crude oil price is associated with the entire financial market. Therefore, this paper try to find how the air transport industry will going through the dynamic changes of its main source of energy——crude oil. Then the data of Brent oil price and air transportation industry index are selected from six months earlier before the Russian Ukrainian conflict broke out, used for constructing VAR model and ARMA-GARCH model with their logarithmic sequences. Through testing and observing the constructed Var model and ARMA-GARCH model, find the impact of international crude oil price changes on the yield and volatility of air transportation industry, so that the air transport industry can acquire the initiative of energy source.

The impacts of pandemic on urban housing prices: evidence from the outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing, 2020

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic has significantly raised economic risk and uncertainty worldwide. How does COVID-19 affect urban housing markets? Is there any difference when different areas encounter COVID-19? This study aims to investigate the impacts of the pandemic on housing prices by using Beijing’s housing markets data in 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use transaction-level data from April to September in 2020 to conduct a hedonic price analysis of the housing markets in Beijing. The data included 70,843 transactions scraped from a real estate agent’s website. The authors use the difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak from the Beijing Xinfadi market (the largest and most important food wholesale market in Beijing) in 2020.FindingsThis outbreak of COVID-19 caused a 6.3% drop in housing prices in Beijing from April to September in 2020. However, the impacts of COVID-19 on housing prices in different urban neighbourhoods were spatially heterogeneous. Housing prices in neighbourhoods with industries that rely on face-to-face communication were more affected by the pandemic, while those that can work remotely were less affected.Originality/valueBy investigating the impacts of COVID-19 on housing prices in Beijing, this study illustrates that urban housing prices would be impacted by the pandemic, at least in the short term. While the rise and fall of housing prices were found spatially heterogeneous in Beijing, it suggests that urban neighbourhoods with specific socioeconomic characteristics and geographic locations would unfold different resilience when encountering pandemic. By using data scraping and rigorous statistical tools, the study is probably one of the first ones examining the consequences of COVID-19 in intra-urban housing markets.

Dynamic volatility spillover between oil and marine shipping industry

Oil consumption not only makes up a large percentage of the overall operating expenses for the marine shipping industry, besides that, the tanker sector is a major carrier of global oil supply, which magnifies the relevance of oil market for the shipping industry. In this backdrop, the following study examines the volatility transmission between marine shipping industry’s tanker and dry cargo market and oil market using daily data from May 2006 to August 2021 by employing spillover index methodology. The empirical results suggest pronounced spillovers for the tanker market while lower spillovers are observed for dry cargo market, indicating the well-integrated tanker market in comparison to dry cargo sector and oil market. The volatility in oil prices contributed higher spillovers in the tanker market, and remained a net contributor. The volatility in oil prices is a significant source of the volatility transmission during periods of the sudden drop in oil prices coupled with the higher volatility in oil market, and is a net receiver during stable periods. The period of higher spillovers lasts longer for the tanker sector as compared to dry cargo sector. In the particular case of dry cargo market, the smaller (larger) the size of the vessels, the greater (lower) are the spillovers observed (From and To). Hedging turns out be irrelevant during turmoil periods, as the comovement between shipping and oil market becomes stronger. The spillovers are pronounced during the period of financial crisis, COVID-19 and 2014–2016, owing to the significant fluctuations in oil prices and a troubled period for marine shipping industry.

Stock Market Laws

Stock market is seen as a sum total of different happenings, especially if we speak about share price. However, share price, as any other economic phenomenon is a combination of chance and law. Occasional nature of share price is evident in its everyday trading. In this case law is hidden under the opportunity to forecast share prices. For longterm periods law-governed nature of share price can be seen in its trend to growth, which can be accompanied by stock crises. The stock crisis in all its worth, as an even and as a process of share price drop is also a stock market law similar to a trend of its growth in time based on unlimited process of growing profit functioning capital. The law of changing the share price in the long-run period is a combination of opposite laws. Chance built in the growth trend, on the one hand includes uncertainty of both duration of share price growth period and characteristics of its drop during stock crises. On the other hand, long-term dynamics of share price is dynamics of its short-term casual changes.

Designing a multi-objective closed-loop supply chain for multi-period multi-generational products with social impacts considerations

This paper assesses a multi-period closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) for making strategic and operational decisions in multi-generation applications. For this purpose, joint decisions on network design, inventory control, production planning, pricing, supplier selection, and service level requirements are determined along with the forward flows of the supply chain. Besides, a segmentation policy is proposed for disassembling and recovering the different quality grades of returned products. All the raised issues have become more challengeable when an inner competition on coexistence goes up between the incumbent and new generations. Accordingly, this paper attempts to bridge the gaps in the literature by proposing a bi-objective mathematical model that involves a demand function with the integration of price drop effects, marketing efforts, and technology desirability to tackle trade-offs decisions between multiple generations. This research aims to simultaneously optimize the total profit and social benefits. To solve the problem, first, the ε-constraint method has been applied to transform the bi-objective problem into a single objective. Then, as a great deal to solve the complex mixed-integer non-linear program model, an outer approximation algorithm is applied based on approximation, relaxation, and decomposition. Finally, a case example in a mobile phone CLSC problem has been investigated to validate the proposed model and provide managerial insights.