The Impact of the Increased Interest Rate on Nike's Stock Price Based on Stata

Abstract

In 2022, The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point in its most aggressive hike since 1994, which gets US dollars more expensive to foreigners, and foreign currencies less valuable to the US. But in the meantime, Nike can’t rise its price in foreign countries immediately, thus with the same quantity of items being sold, their price decreases due to the exchange rate difference, and their profit diminishes. Since a stock’s value represent the ability to profit in the future, when Nike's ability to profit decreases, people tend to sell its stock and when the demand for Nike’s stock is smaller than that of supply, its price drops. In addition, as the interest rate increases, the mass is inclined to invest in bonds, and when bonds get more attractive people to invest less in stocks, thus as one of the listed corporations, owing to the demand for Nike’s stock price decrease, its stock price decreases. Whereas at the same time as the interest rate increase, more foreign capital is intended to invest in the US, thus the stock price of Nike might also increase. Thus whether the increased interest rate contributes to Nike's stock price is controversial. This paper mainly used a series of statistical models including VAR and ARMA-GARCH models etc. to see the net effect of interest rate on Nike's stock price, and then included the future study needed and limitations of this research.