Driving Force Pressure State Impact Response Research Articles

Land ecological security evaluation and prediction based on SBM-BP model: a case study of Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Land ecological security is the foundation for ecological environmental protection and regional sustainable development. Therefore, examining the land ecological security and spatial heterogeneity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) in China can guide effective land ecological protection in this region. Using a driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) index system, a global super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model, and a backpropagation (BP) neural network model, this study evaluated the land ecological security in 126 YREB prefecture-level cities and then employed spatial correlation analysis to identify the spatial distribution characteristics. It was found that: (1) from 2012 to 2021, the land ecological security in the study area decreased and then increased, with the eastern and western regions being better than the central regions; (2) from 2015 to 2017, the high land ecological security was clustered in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the low value was clustered in Yunnan Province, Hubei Province, and the Chongqing Municipality; (3) from 2022 to 2026, the land ecological security in the study area is expected to gradually increase, but in the southwest is expected to remain low. These research results provide a theoretical basis for the evaluation and prediction of land ecological security and practical guidance for land ecological protection in areas with similar natural conditions.

Regional water cycle health evaluation and obstacle factor analysis: A case study of the Yellow River basin in Henan Province, China

Ecological and socioeconomic systems are interconnected through water cycles. Due to intensive anthropogenic activities and global climate change, the water cycle has undergone profound changes over the last few decades. This study aimed to evaluate the health status of the regional water cycle, explore the etiology of water cycle disorders, and provide suggestions for improving the health of the water cycle. Based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, an index system was constructed to evaluate regional water cycle health. The water cycle was evaluated using a random forest (RF) model, which can achieve desirable fitting and generalization properties. The Yellow River Basin in Henan Province (YRBHN), China, was used as an example to demonstrate the application of this system. An Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST)-Cloud model was used to validate the evaluation results of the RF model. The main influencing factors in the water cycle process were then identified using the obstacle degree model, and ensuing policy recommendations were presented. The results demonstrated that the health state of the water cycle in the YRBHN shifted from unhealthy to sub-healthy during 2011–2020, with the response layer showing the most evident positive change. The health states of Zhengzhou and Luoyang were superior to those of the other cities, with average health index numbers of 3.1006 and 3.0078, respectively. Although the evaluation index numbers of the EFAST-Cloud and RF models were slightly different, their evaluation results were similar, indicating that the RF model was applicable for water cycle health evaluation. The proportion of ecological water use and the response (R) layer provided the greatest obstacle degree in the index and criterion layers, respectively. Based on the current state of the water cycle in the YRBHN, some policy implications were proposed. This study proposed a new method for regional water cycle health evaluation and decision making that provides theoretical support for regional water resource management and is of considerable practical significance.

Exploring the ecological security evaluation of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin under the background of ecological sustainable development

The Yangtze River (hereafter referred to as the YZR), the largest river in China, is of paramount importance for ensuring water resource security. The Yangtze River Basin (hereafter referred to as the YRB) is one of the most densely populated areas in China, and complex human activities have a significant impact on the ecological security of water resources. Therefore, this paper employs theories related to ecological population evolution and the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to construct an indicator system for the ecological security of water resources in the YRB. The report evaluates the ecological security status of water resources in each province of the YRB from 2010 to 2019, clarifies the development trend of its water resource ecological security, and proposes corresponding strategies for regional ecological security and coordinated economic development. According to the results of the ecological population evolution competition model, the overall indicator of the ecological security of water resources in the YRB continues to improve, with the safety level increasing annually. Maintaining sound management of water resources in the YRB is crucial for sustainable socioeconomic development. To further promote the ecological security of water resources in the YRB and the coordinated development of the regional economy, this paper proposes policy suggestions such as promoting the continuous advancement of sustainable development projects, actively adjusting industrial structure, continuously enhancing public environmental awareness, and actively participating in international ecological construction and seeking cooperation among multiple departments.

Coastal ecological security assessment in Laizhou Bay, China: from the perspective of demographic-social-economic-natural complex ecosystem.

Assessment of ecological security is essential for understanding the status of bay ecosystem and developing appropriate management strategy. Based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model, the demographic, economic, social, and ecological data of Laizhou Bay and its three neighboring counties were selected for the period from 2015 to 2021. An ecological security evaluation index system of Laizhou Bay containing 26 indicators was established, and the weights of each indicator were determined by the methods of AHP and EWM, and a comprehensive evaluation of the ecological security of Laizhou Bay was carried out by ESI. Correlations between indicators were analyzed by the Spearman's rank coefficient of correlation. The results showed that there were significant correlations between marine conditions and indicators such as population size in the surrounding area, mariculture area, industrial and domestic wastewater discharge, and treatment rate. Overall, from 2015 to 2021, the ecological security of Laizhou Bay showed a favorable trend, from a relatively unsafe level to a generally safe level, and then to a relatively safe level. Through the comprehensive evaluation of the ecological security of Laizhou Bay, we can recognize the utilization of marine resources and ecological carrying capacity, guide the rational development and utilization of marine resources, and promote the sustainable development of the marine economy.

The DPSIR Model-Based Sustainability Assessment of Urban Water Resources: A Comparative Study of Zhuhai and Macao

Based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model, 19 indicators were selected to construct a comparison between Zhuhai and Macao, two adjacent cities at the estuary of the Pearl River in China, which have different development models and water resource sustainable development strategies. Factors that may affect the sustainability of water resources were screened and placed according to the relationships of the five subsystems in the DPSIR model, establishing a sustainable evaluation model for water resources in the two cities. The results analyzed by Principal Component Analysis and Entropy methods showed that (1) Zhuhai City was greatly affected by the driving force, while Macao was greatly affected by the state system from 2012 to 2021. (2) From the trend changes, it can be seen that, in recent years, the water resources of the two cities have been moving towards sustainable development, and the management and protection of water resources have achieved remarkable results. From the evaluation results, it can be seen that implementing urban water-saving activities, strengthening the proportion of environmental water conservancy, public measures in public investment, upgrading sewage treatment machinery to improve sewage treatment rates, and other measures can effectively improve the current situation of water resources in both regions. In the future, the Zhuhai and Macao cities may continue to face a series of water resource pressures brought on by socio-economic developments. Therefore, an active adjustment of the development of the measurement of controlling wastewater discharge and saving water resources was proposed, adhering to the direction of sustainable development, and ensuring the benign development of socio-economic conditions and the ecological environment. This study can provide data to support regional water resource security and policy formulation with different political systems.

Evaluation and prediction of water security levels in Northwest China based on the DPSIR model

Since the the dawn of the 21st century, water security has occupied a pivotal position in fostering sustainable development. However, frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change and higher intensity of anthropogenic events, water security problems in Northwest China are becoming increasingly prominent. This paper elucidates water security levels and predicts future trends of Northwest China. Firstly, the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework served as the foundation for the establishment of the water security evaluation index system. Then used the entropy weight method to calculate the weight of indicators and the five-element connection degree method was used to assess the water security levels. The period for the data used in the study was from 2010 to 2019. Finally, a grey prediction model was employed to forecast the water security levels from 2023 to 2030. The findings showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2019, the water security situation gradually developed to a very high level in Northwest China: Shaanxi Province mostly attained a high level, and the water security grades of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were mostly at a very low level. (2) Generally, from 2023 to 2030, the water security level will continue to improve. The water security grades of Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai will mostly be at the medium level, while that of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region will be at the low level. (3) The five dimensions of water security in Northwest China demonstrated a fluctuating yet consistently upward trend. (4) Based on the results, suggestions were put forward regarding water security and sustainable development in Northwest China.

Assessment of ecological civilization construction from the perspective of environment and health in China

This study innovatively evaluated ecological civilization in China from the perspective of environment and health. A Composite Environmental Health Index (CEHI) was constructed based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) and Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) models. Results showed that significant and sustained improvements were observed in the ecological environment after ecological civilization, while economic development continued to progress at a steady pace. However, the advancement in population health (impact subsystem), exhibited comparatively modest progress, potentially linked to issues such as demographic aging and the enduring consequences of past exposure to environmental pollutants. At the provincial level, the regional development was uneven. The CEHI performance was highest in the eastern regions, followed by the central regions, with the western regions showing the least progress. Beijing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang emerged as top performers with higher CEHI scores, which can be attributed to their favorable geographical positioning and the response subsystem. Conversely, northeastern regions (Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning) and northwestern regions (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and Qinghai) experienced limited advancements in post-ecological civilization implementation. For these underperforming regions, there is a pressing need to intensify efforts aimed at enhancing their response subsystems. In summary, China's pursuit of ecological civilization has yielded significant successes, potentially offering valuable insights for other nations striving for sustainable development. The ecological civilization model's integration of ecological environmental protection into economic, political, cultural, and social constructs may serve as a meaningful reference for the sustainable development of other countries.

Revealing the Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Obstacles of Ecological Security in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Region, China

Climate change and human activities have caused various ecological risks to coastal urban agglomerations. Ecological security refers to the state of health of an ecosystem and its integrity. An objective and comprehensive evaluation of ecological security is significant for protecting the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. The driving force–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) model was used to construct a dynamic simulation model of ecological security in the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou region (XZQR), located on the eastern coast of China. The ecological security level (ESL) characteristics of the spatial and temporal patterns were evaluated by calculating the ecological security index (ESI). Obstacle factors were analyzed as well. The results show the following: (1) From 2011 to 2021, the average ESI rose from 0.238 to 0.686 and went through a relatively insecure stage (2011–2015), a critical stage (2016–2019), and a relatively secure stage (2020–2021). (2) The ESI level in Quanzhou was higher in the early stage, and the level of ecological security in Zhangzhou showed a significant rising trend, increasing by 0.541. Its increase depended on increases in the impact layer. (3) The impact layer is the main obstacle layer affecting the ESL, and the main obstacles include CO2 emissions (0.117), annual rainfall (0.091), general public budget expenditures (0.082), GDP growth rates (0.082), and green coverage in built-up areas (0.075). Therefore, we recommend promoting the complementary advantages of the XZQR and implementing ecological restoration projects.

The response of ecological security to land use change in east and west subtropical China.

Regional land use change and ecological security have received considerable attention in recent years. The rapid economic development of Kunming and Fuzhou has resulted in environmental damage such as water pollution and urban heat island effect. It is thus important to conduct a comparative analysis of the ecological security response to land use/land cover change (LUCC) in different natural zones. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, random forest and support vector machine methods were used to classify land cover types in the study area, after which the ArcGIS platform was used to analyze LUCC. The driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model and entropy weight method were used to construct an ecological security evaluation system, and gray correlation was used to compare the ecological security responses to LUCC in Kunming and Fuzhou. The findings revealed that: (1) The average dynamic degrees of comprehensive land use in Kunming and Fuzhou from 1995 to 2020 were 1.05% and 0.55%, respectively; (2) From 1995 to 2020, the ecological security index values for Kunming and Fuzhou increased from 0.42 to 0.52 and from 0.36 to 0.68, respectively, indicating that Fuzhou's index is rising more rapidly; and (3)There is a strong correlation between LUCC and ecological security, the correlation between the woodland and the ecological security index is very strong in both places. The expansion of construction land may be an important reason for the reduced ecological security level in Fuzhou City, while water resources have a significant impact on the ecological security level of Kunming City.

Characteristics and Variations in Korea through the Lens of Net-Zero Carbon Transformation in Cities

As climate issues become more severe, the necessity and importance of urban transformation are being widely recognized, and the breadth and depth of research in various disciplines of social sciences to promote net-zero carbon (NZC) transformation in cities is increasing. In this study, between 2015 and 2021, 17 major cities and administrative regions in Korea from were taken as the target and based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model, a framework of 23 indicators of energy, environment, and economic systems (3ES) was constructed through the coupling coordination degree (CCD) assessment system. The development level, development speed, coordination index of subsystems, and coupled coordination relationship were analyzed successively. Finally, a gray correlation model was adopted to extract the 3ES of each city and their key driving factors. The findings indicate that: (1) There is a phenomenon of high coupling and low coordination within the subsystem, with the environmental factors layer being the most critical concern. (2) The overall coupling of the system has improved continuously since 2015, but it is still at the moderate coupling stage, owing to the long-term nature of system contradictions and processing lags. (3) The driving causes of urban transformation have shifted from economic to environmental restrictions, resulting in noticeable regional differences later in the study period and a rise in the necessity for hierarchical zoning governance. Finally, based on the perspective of restricted subsystems and the consolidation of the 3ES coordination relationship, this study demonstrates the significant relationship between environmental protection, energy transition, and economic development, thus enriching the associated literature at the periphery. It also provides a theoretical foundation for investigating the transition path of NZC cities, thus enhancing research in this area.

Investigating the dynamic decoupling relationship between regional social economy and lake water environment: The application of DPSIR-Extended Tapio decoupling model

The water environmental problems associated with rapid socioeconomic growth have drawn widespread attention from the government and the public. Revealing the decoupling mechanism between the social economy and lake water environment has become an important breakthrough point to seek the pathways of sustainable economic development. To investigate the decoupling process of the social economy‒lake water environmental system, this study proposes a comprehensive evaluation model, which integrates the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, projection pursuit method, and Tapio decoupling model; and then applies it to the case study of Hefei City and Lake Chaohu in China in 2021–2035. Three typical scenarios of current, social economy, and water environment are designed and simulated using the DPSIR model to evaluate the dynamic decoupling relationships under various development patterns. We found that the DPSIR indexes had a fluctuating upward trend from 2009 to 2020, with a synchronous improvement trend of the social economy and lake water environment. Meanwhile, the Tapio decoupling analysis showed that the decoupling relationships between socioeconomic driver forces, response strategies and the status of lake water environment was mostly strongly decoupled and weakly decoupled during 2009–2020. However, there was still an inconsistency between the improvement rate of the lake water environment and the increase rate of the response strategies. During the 2021–2035 simulation period, the DPSIR indexes of all scenarios depicts an overall increasing trend. The decoupling states of S&I-D&P and S&I–R generally tend to be consistent under three regulation scenarios. Among them, the water environment scenario outperforms other scenarios, and the social economy scenario performs worst. Overall, the decoupling of the social economy and lake water environment can attribute to both the transformation of socioeconomic development patterns and the increase of water environmental protection efforts.

Evaluation of urban public transport sustainability in China based on the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework——A case study of 36 major cities

With urbanization and motorization, the sustainable development of urban transport has drawn extensive attention worldwide. As one of the key components of the transport system, urban public transport is the breakthrough. This study focused on the characteristics of public transport, analyzed the causal and restrictive relationships between anthropogenic activities and urban public transport sustainability based on the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, and decomposed the interaction to establish an evaluation index system. An improved set pair analysis-variable fuzzy set model (ISPA-VFSM) was constructed to evaluate urban public transport sustainability in China's 36 major cities in 2020 and analyze the critical influence factors and restriction modes according to the contribution degree and obstacle degree. The results show that: (1) The sustainable development of urban public transport is a systematic process, and public transport sustainability in 36 major cities shows the spatial distribution characteristics of “high in the southeast and low in the west;” Most megacities are at the forefront, benefiting from outstanding state and response levels, with Shenzhen ranking first; while the megapolises generally display moderate sustainability. Cities in Northeast and Northwest China present lower levels of sustainability. (2) Public transport sustainability in China is deficient, exhibiting a certain gap from the target. The levels of the driving force, pressure, state, impact, and response of public transport sustainability in 36 major cities are unbalanced; (3) The restriction mode of urban public transport sustainability in 36 major cities can be roughly divided into three categories: pressure-impact restriction mode, driving force-impact restriction mode, and state-response restriction mode; (4) State and response play a crucial role in achieving public transport sustainability. Public transport infrastructure, electrification substitution, and efficiency of public transport operations are the primary contributing factors to public transport sustainability. This study enriches the indicators and methods for sustainability evaluation and provides a reference for urban public transport sustainable development.

Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of ecological security in China based on DPSIR-DEA model: A case study of the Three Gorges reservoir area

Ecological security (ES) is an important element in the construction of an ecological civilization and plays a vital role in ensuring the sustainable development of social economies. Further, ES is an important measure of regional sustainable development. Based on ecosystem theory, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework using the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) and slacks-based measure of data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) models. Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example, the study develops an ES evaluation system and realizes a transformation from “efficiency” to “quality”.Gray correlation theory and spatial autocorrelation and are adopted to analyze the ecosystem's spatial–temporal evolution and driving factors. The results demonstrate that the overall level of ES in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 2010 to 2020 was good; however, the spatial distribution of ES revealed an unbalanced state. The influence of each subsystem on the result of the ES evaluation is state > response > impact > driving force > pressure. The spatial correlation analysis of ES in the Three Gorges Reservoir area exhibited a positive autocorrelation, and the agglomeration effect was significant; on this basis, the key factors affecting ES were identified. The ratio of environmental protection investment, sewage treatment rate, green coverage rate of built-up areas, proportion of primary industry in GDP, and proportion of tertiary industry in GDP had notable effects on the ES of the study area. The research contributes to the theory of ES and provides guidance for ecologically sustainable development.

Coupling SWAT and DPSIR models for groundwater management in Mediterranean catchments

Groundwater is an essential natural resource and has a significant role in human and environmental health as well as in the economy. Management of subsurface storage remains an important option to meet the combined demands of humans and ecosystems. The increasing need to find multi-purpose solutions to address water scarcity is a global challenge. Thus, the interactions leading to surface runoff and groundwater recharge have received particular attention over the last decades. Additionally, new methods are developed to incorporate the spatial-temporal variation of recharge in groundwater modeling. In this study, groundwater recharge was spatiotemporally quantified using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Upper Volturno-Calore hydrological basin in Italy and the results were compared with other two basins in Greece (Anthemountas and Mouriki). SWAT model was applied in actual and future projections (2022–2040) using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitation and assess the future hydrologic conditions, along with, the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework that was applied in all the basins as a low-cost analysis of integrated physical, social, natural, and economic factors. According to the results, no significant variations in runoff are predicted in the Upper Volturno-Calore basin for the period 2020–2040 while the potential evapotranspiration percentage varies from 50.1% to 74.3% and infiltration around 5%. The limited primary data constitutes the main pressure in all sites and exaggerates the uncertainty of future projections.

Emergency risk assessment of sudden water pollution in South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China based on driving force–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) model and variable fuzzy set

Emergency risk assessment of sudden water pollution in South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China based on driving force–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) model and variable fuzzy set

Analysis DPSIR for the Strategic Environment Assessment in Planning Development in Agropolitan Areas and Minapolitan Areas in East Java

The development plan of Agropolitan and Minapolitan areas in the province of East Java is thought to pose a risk to the environment. Agropolitan/Minapolitan Area development will be followed by industrial sector development, increasing environmental risks such as environmental pollution, both air, soil and water due to waste from agricultural, aquaculture, and/or industrial activities, conversion of agricultural land and ponds, and destruction of other ecosystems. Policies, Plans and Programs (PPPs) Zoning planning and development in Agropolitan Areas and Minapolitan Areas in the form of production center zones, processing industry center zones, collection and distribution center zones is one of the PPPs that requires a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). This research was carried out at the zoning locations in East Java Province’s Agropolitan and Minapolitan areas. The purpose of this study is to determine how environmental influences and impacts are caused by Policies, Plans, and Programs (PPPs) planning and zoning development in Agropolitan Areas and Minapolitan Areas in East Java Province in the form of production center zones, processing industry center zones, collection and distribution center zones. Regional environmental analysis and policy evaluation are carried out using the analysis six contents of SEA and DPSIR (Driving Force – Pressure – State – Impact – Response) approach which it is a framework for organizing information and data on environmental conditions. The research results show that data on environmental conditions from PPPs planning and zoning development in the Agropolitan and Minapolitan Areas of East Java Province in the form of production center zones, processing industry center zones, collection and distribution center zones consist of D3TLH water is exceeded and has not been exceeded, environmental impact and risk, service performance or ecosystem services, level of vulnerability to climate change, resistance level and biodiversity potential, and estimated environmental risk impact. The research’s findings indicate that SEA is a very beneficial and effective ongoing usage of evaluation tools to provide solutions or recommendations based on an in-depth review process that includes mitigation and alternatives.

A Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) tool to help waste pickers' cooperatives self-evaluate their environmental and economic performance

Cooperatives of waste pickers play a critical role in municipal solid waste management, contributing to public health, sanitation, and the environment by promoting resource circulation and reducing the amount of recyclable waste disposed of in landfills. Despite this, the majority of cooperatives lack an organized physical infrastructure and operational protocols for integrated waste management, which includes the stages of sorting, classification, processing, and marketing recyclable waste. In this work, an optimized survey was developed to assist waste pickers’ cooperatives in self-assessing their social, environmental, and economic performances. A questionnaire with nine dimensions was developed and automated to connect 16 driving forces (D), 74 pressure indicators (P), 23 states (S), 35 impacts (I), and 38 responses (R). The only action required was to choose each pressure indicator and apply the appropriate score level based on the cooperative's data analysis. The procedure eliminates subjective interpretation and identifies all indicators that require further consideration and discussion. As a result, the cooperative is able to propose highly targeted improvement measures. To demonstrate the benefits of the tool, the survey was applied in a waste picker's cooperative in a municipality in Brazil.

Evaluation of Synergetic Development of Water and Land Resources Based on a Coupling Coordination Degree Model

The interaction between water and land resources (WALRs) has been further enhanced with the development of human production activities. Evaluating the synergetic development (SD) level of WALRs is conducive to discovering the weakness of comprehensive utilization of resources and promoting sustainable development. However, previous studies did not clearly elucidate the effects of the synergetic development between WALRs (SD-WALRs). For evaluation methods, the impact of various subsystem development levels on the whole system is often ignored due to its unclear definition. Therefore, in this research, the concept of the SD-WALRs was defined based on synergetic theory. By using the “Driving Force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response” (DPSIR) model, comprehensive evaluation index systems of WALR development were established. The index systems were regarded as efficacy functions of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, and the evaluation model of the SD-WALR level was constructed based on it. Taking Luoyang City as an example, using the latest 10 years (2010–2019) with available data as the study period, the results showed that the value of the SD degree increased from 0.609 to 0.789 during the study period, which reached the level of intermediate synergetic development. In general, the development of WALRs showed a positive trend from “high coupling but low synergetic development” to “high synergetic development”.

An integrated ecological security early-warning framework in the national nature reserve based on the gray model

Nature reserves (NRs) play a pivotal role in minimizing habitat loss and protecting wild animals and plants, which are critical for human ecological security. However, focusing only on the construction of ecological security patterns of NRs without understanding their ecological security early-warning situations and their driving factors may fail to achieve protection goals. This study constructed an ecological security early-warning framework and index system based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework model. The gray model (GM) was used to predict the ecological security early-warning situation, and the Geo-detector model was applied to explore the driving factors of the ecological security early-warning system in the Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve (BNNR). The results showed that the average ecological security index (ESI) value increased from 0.2796 in 2005 to 0.3171 in 2017, with an average increase of 11.82%. The ecological security early-warning index (ESEWI) value increased from 0.3171 in 2018 to 0.3622 in 2030, which was an average increase of 12.46%. These results indicated that the ecological security situation continually improved from 2005 to 2030. By 2030, the number of towns with a “no warning” grade increased to four, the number of towns with an “extreme warning” grade was zero, and the proportion of areas with early-warnings decreased from 100% to 33%. The q values of per capita forest land areas and per capita grassland areas were both 0.9334, which indicated that environmental characteristic factors were the primary driving factors in ecological security early-warning. Our results demonstrated that the ecological security early-warning index system based on the DPSIR model and grey model can well prediction ecological security situation and provide scientific support for the ecological protection and management of NRs.

Discarded bottles entrap endemic small mammals species in a large Mediterranean island.

We examined the entrapment effect of discarded bottles on small mammals, along a road network located in North-Western Sardinia (Italy). On 162 bottles, 49 (> 30%) contained at least one animal specimen (invertebrate or vertebrate) and 26 (16%) entrapped 151 small mammals: insectivorous shrews (Soricomorpha) were more frequently recorded. Larger bottles (66cl.) showed a higher number of entrapped mammals, but difference was not significant when compared to smaller bottles (33cl.). Our data highlighted as abandoned bottles represent a threatening factor for small mammals on a large Mediterranean island with over-represented endemic shrews (predators of high trophic level) attracted by insects entrapped in bottles. Correspondence analysis suggest a weak segregation between bottles of different size, related to the abundance of the most entrapped species, the Mediterranean shrew (Crocidura pachyura). This still neglected type of litter, reducing number and biomass of insectivorous mammals of high trophic level and high ecological value may affect the food web in terrestrial insular communities, yet impoverished for biogeographical reasons. However, discarded bottles may represent as low-cost surrogate pitfall traps useful to improve knowledge in poor studied areas. Following the DPSIR (Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, Response) approach as a framework to select indicator, we suggest as the effectiveness of removal clean-ups could be monitored using both the density of discarded bottles (as indicator of threat pressure) and the abundance of entrapped animals (as indicator of impact on small mammals).