Evaluation and prediction of water security levels in Northwest China based on the DPSIR model

Abstract

Since the the dawn of the 21st century, water security has occupied a pivotal position in fostering sustainable development. However, frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change and higher intensity of anthropogenic events, water security problems in Northwest China are becoming increasingly prominent. This paper elucidates water security levels and predicts future trends of Northwest China. Firstly, the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework served as the foundation for the establishment of the water security evaluation index system. Then used the entropy weight method to calculate the weight of indicators and the five-element connection degree method was used to assess the water security levels. The period for the data used in the study was from 2010 to 2019. Finally, a grey prediction model was employed to forecast the water security levels from 2023 to 2030. The findings showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2019, the water security situation gradually developed to a very high level in Northwest China: Shaanxi Province mostly attained a high level, and the water security grades of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were mostly at a very low level. (2) Generally, from 2023 to 2030, the water security level will continue to improve. The water security grades of Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai will mostly be at the medium level, while that of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region will be at the low level. (3) The five dimensions of water security in Northwest China demonstrated a fluctuating yet consistently upward trend. (4) Based on the results, suggestions were put forward regarding water security and sustainable development in Northwest China.