Drivers Of Change Research Articles

Mapping cropping patterns in the North China Plain over the past 300 years and an analysis of the drivers of change

Mapping cropping patterns in the North China Plain over the past 300 years and an analysis of the drivers of change

Navigating Tomorrow's Tide: Exploring the Future of Ocean Resources and Their Impact on Food and Feed Safety

Abstract In a context of global changes, a foresight study is helpful to look into the future, anticipate possible scenarios and take appropriate decisions to face emerging risks for food and feed safety. Considering that an increased use of the ocean is expected for the next decades, it is essential to explore its possible impact on the safety of food and feed from the oceans. A scoping study was carried out to analyse drivers of change that may impact/promote the future uses of the ocean and its resources. From bibliographic search, different ocean uses were identified: coastal and open‐sea mining, marine aquaculture, sea transport and trade, energy production and related infrastructures, fisheries, ocean crops, saline farming, desalination, extraction of bioresources, marine protected areas and conservation of the ocean. Through the information gathered in the scoping study and the input of several experts, three key ocean uses were prioritised to proceed to a participatory foresight exercise: (i) coastal and open‐sea mining; (ii) marine aquaculture; and (iii) sea transport and trade. The foresight exercise produced three possible scenarios for 2050 for each prioritised use of the ocean. On the basis of these scenarios, possible implications and potential emerging issues for the safety of food and feed from the oceans were identified and characterised through bibliographic data. This document also provides a description of the methodology followed in the scoping study and in the foresight exercise, and recommendations that could help EFSA to prepare to the challenges posed by the future exploitation of ocean resources.

Preface

This NEXTBUILT 2024 Conference Proceedings comprise the selected papers contributing to the 2024 International Conference on Challenges for the NEXT generation BUILT Environment, held in Bologna on two years basis, with the ambition to become a reference event to share and discuss drivers of change, barriers and solutions for shaping the future built environment considering the impact of Climate Change. The Conference is one of the main outcomes of the NEXTBUILT Observatory, whose main scope is to collect, analyse, and report information, research, and studies dealing with the most urgent and hot topics influencing the transformation directions in contemporary cities with a forward-looking perspective. The initiative is supported and fed by the research activity run at the Department of Architecture of the University of Bologna as well as by the constant transformative plans led by the City of Bologna. NEXTBUILT 2024 was held in Bologna on May 9th and 10th 2024, with the chance to join the conference online for those who were not able to attend in person, under the overarching theme of “a reflection on the future of the built environment within a context of resource scarcity or heavily influenced by climate change impacts, assuming a strong future oriented approach”. List of Scientific Committee members and Reviewers are available in this Pdf.

Non-consistent changes and drivers of water-sediment fluxes in the yarlung tsangpo river basin of the Tibetan plateau

Variations in water-sediment fluxes and their driving mechanisms are critical to riverine ecosystems and management. Yet, current estimates of the response of water and sediment flux remain insufficiently quantified, limited by the scarcity of long-term hydrological records in the alpine regions. Here, we leverage decadal observations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, to investigate the dynamic shifts in water-sediment fluxes from 1955 to 2020 and elucidate their linkage to a warming and wetting climate, snowmelt, and environmental greening (including natural- and human-induced greening) in the different spatial and temporal scale. Major drivers of shifts in water-sediment flux are identified by using wavelet coherence and variance partitioning of redundancy analysis. The results highlight that observational data from four gauging stations (i.e., Lhaze, Nugesha, Yangcun, and Nuxia) uncover a substantial decrease in suspended sediment load (SSL) (Nuxia: 12.302 × 104 t/yr, P < 0.05) in the downstream with consistently increasing runoff and precipitation. Especially during the flood season (July to September), the dam/reservoir construction caused a median decrease in SSL. Dropping sediment offsets the slightly rising SSLs in the midstream and upstream (upper Yangcun: 14.8 × 104 t/yr, P > 0.05). Up to 80% of sediment was sourced from the middle stretch between Lhaze and Nugesha despite it supplied with lower regional runoff generation. Nevertheless, the downstream zone experienced the transition from a sediment source to a deposition area around 1998. We further found the negative and positive effects between water-sediment fluxes and revegetation, and demonstrated that employing NDVI to evaluate human-induced vegetation greening might overestimate the impact of ecological restoration programs on water-sediment fluxes. Attribution analysis indicates that precipitation was not the primary contributor to runoff and SSL changes in all stretches of the basin. In the upstream, temperature and associated snowmelt can be more important than precipitation. Compared to before 1998, precipitation is still the primary driver of change in downstream runoff change after 1998, whilst vegetation restoration, rather than precipitation, dominates the reduction in downstream SSL. These findings have far-reaching significance for watershed managers and decision-makers in terms of developing effective strategies for water resources and soil erosion control.

Riverine connectivity modulates elemental fluxes through a 200- year period of intensive anthropic change in the Magdalena River floodplains, Colombia

Tropical floodplain lakes are increasingly impacted by human activities, yet their pathways of spatial and temporal degradation, particularly under varying hydrological connectivity regimes and climate change, remain poorly understood. This study examines surface-sediment samples and 210Pb-dated sediment cores from six floodplain lakes, representing a gradient in hydrological connectivity in the lower Magdalena River Basin, Colombia. We analysed temporal and spatial variations in several sediment biogeochemical indicators: the concentration and flux of nutrients, heavy metals, and organic matter (OM), and redox conditions, flooding and erosion. Multiple factor analysis (MFA) of surface-sediments identified redox conditions, OM, flooding, heavy metals and lake connectivity as the main contributors to spatial variability within- and between-lakes sediments, accounting for 48% of the total variation. Additionally, no clear distinction was found between littoral and open-water sediment characteristics. Isolated lakes sediments exhibited reductive conditions rich in OM and nutrients, whereas connected lakes sediments showed greater heavy metal enrichment and higher concentrations of coarse river-fed material. Generalised additive models identified significant changes in the biogeochemical indicators since the late 1800s, that accelerated post-1980s. Shifts in OM, erosion, flooding, redox conditions, land-cover change, heavy metals and climate were identified by MFA as the main drivers of change, explaining 60%-71% of the variation in the connected lakes and 53%-72% in the isolated lakes. Post-1980s, connected lakes transitioned from conditions of higher accumulation of OM and little erosion to higher accumulation of heavy metals and river-fed material. Conversely, isolated lakes, shifted from detrital-heavy metal-rich sediments to OM-, and nutrient-rich, reductive sediments. Sedimentation rates also surged post-1980s, particularly in highly connected lakes, from 0.14 ± 0.07 g cm² yr⁻¹ to 0.5 ± 0.5 g cm² yr⁻¹, with elevated fluxes of metals, OM and nutrients. These changes in sediment biogeochemistry align with deforestation, river regulation and prolonged dry periods, highlighting the complexities behind establishing reliable reference conditions for pollution assessments in large, human-impacted tropical river systems.

Resolving the Intricate Effects of Multiple Global Change Drivers on Root Litter Decomposition.

Plant roots represent about a quarter of global plant biomass and constitute a primary source of soil organic carbon (C). Yet, considerable uncertainty persists regarding root litter decomposition and their responses to global change factors (GCFs). Much of this uncertainty stems from a limited understanding of the multifactorial effects of GCFs and it remains unclear how these effects are mediated by litter quality, soil conditions and microbial functionality. Using complementary field decomposition and laboratory incubation approaches, we assessed the relative controls of GCF-mediated changes in root litter traits and soil and microbial properties on fine-root decomposition under warming, nitrogen (N) enrichment, and precipitation alteration. We found that warming and N enrichment accelerated fine-root decomposition by over 10%, and their combination showed an additive effect, while precipitation reduction suppressed decomposition overall by 12%, with the suppressive effect being most significant under warming-alone and N enrichment-alone conditions. Significantly, changes in litter quality played a dominant role and accelerated fine-root decomposition by 15% ~ 18% under warming and N enrichment, while changes in soil and microbial properties were predominant and reduced decomposition by 7% ~ 10% under precipitation reduction and the combined warming and N enrichment. Examining only the decomposition environment or litter properties in isolation can distort global change effects on root decomposition, underestimating precipitation reduction impacts by 38% and overstating warming and N effects by up to 73%. These findings highlight that the net impact of GCFs on root litter decomposition hinges on the interplay between GCF-modulated root decomposability and decomposition environment, as well as on the synergistic or antagonistic relationships among GCFs themselves. Our study emphasizes that integrating the legacy effects of multiple GCFs on root traits, soil conditions and microbial functionality would improve our prediction of C and nutrient cycling under interactive global change scenarios.

When the Going Gets Tough, the Females Get Going: Sex-Specific Physiological Responses to Simultaneous Exposure to Hypoxia and Marine Heatwave Events in a Ubiquitous Copepod.

The existence of sex-specific differences in phenotypic traits is widely recognized. Yet they are often ignored in studies looking at the impact of global changes on marine organisms, particularly within the context of combined drivers that are known to elicit complex interactions. We tested sex-specific physiological responses of the cosmopolitan and ecologically important marine copepod Acartia tonsa exposed to combined hypoxia and marine heatwave (MHW) conditions, both of which individually strongly affect marine ectotherms. Females and males were acutely exposed for 5 days to a combination of either control (18°C) or a high temperature mimicking a MHW (25°C), and normoxia (100% O2 sat.) or mild hypoxia (35% O2 sat.). Life-history traits, as well as sex-specific survival and physiological traits, were measured. Females had overall higher thermal tolerance levels and responded differently than males when exposed to the combined global change drivers investigated. Females also showed lower metabolic thermal sensitivity when compared to males. Additionally, the MHW exerted a dominant effect on the traits investigated, causing a lower survival and higher metabolic rate at 25°C. However, egg production rates appeared unaffected by hypoxia and MHW conditions. Our results showed that MHWs could strongly affect copepods' survival, that combined exposure to hypoxia and MHW exerted an interactive effect only on CTmax, and that sex-specific vulnerability to these global change drivers could have major implications for population dynamics. Our results highlight the importance of considering the differences in the responses of females and males to rapid environmental changes to improve the implementation of climate-smart conservation approaches.

Long-Term Alpine Plant Responses to Global Change Drivers Depend on Functional Traits.

Forecasting plant responses under global change is a critical but challenging endeavour. Despite seemingly idiosyncratic responses of species to global change, greater generalisation of 'winners' and 'losers' may emerge from considering how species functional traits influence responses and how these responses scale to the community level. Here, we synthesised six long-term global change experiments combined with locally measured functional traits. We quantified the change in abundance and probability of establishment through time for 70 alpine plant species and then assessed if leaf and stature traits were predictive of species and community responses across nitrogen addition, snow addition and warming treatments. Overall, we found that plants with more resource-acquisitive trait strategies increased in abundance but each global change factor was related to different functional strategies. Nitrogen addition favoured species with lower leaf nitrogen, snow addition favoured species with cheaply constructed leaves and warming showed few consistent trends. Community-weighted mean changes in trait values in response to nitrogen addition, snow addition and warming were often different from species-specific trait effects on abundance and establishment, reflecting in part the responses and traits of dominant species. Together, these results highlight that the effects of traits can differ by scale and response of interest.

The self-efficacy for regular meditation practice scale (SERMS): Development and psychometric validation.

The health benefits of meditation are well-documented, yet people struggle to practice regularly. Domain-specific self-efficacy is an important modifiable driver of health behavior change that is poorly understood in the meditation context. As such, the present study developed the Self-Efficacy for Regular Meditation Practice Scale (SERMS) assessing confidence in one's capacity to meditate frequently and in a way that favorably impacts well-being, including securing the psychological, social, and structural supports needed for ongoing practice. Participants provided online survey data at baseline and 1-week follow-up. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted (n = 249) followed by confirmatory factor analysis (n = 249). A three-factor structure best fit the data, with subscales measuring self-efficacy to benefit from meditation, persist in meditation, and obtain teacher and community support. Validity and test-retest reliability coefficients supported the SERMS as a promising measure of self-efficacy for meditation that may further research on meditation behavior adoption.

Recycling Technologies for Biopolymers: Current Challenges and Future Directions.

Plastic pollution is a major driver of climate change that is associated with biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, and negative soil, plant, animal, and human health. One of the solutions that has been proposed and is currently reducing the adverse effects of plastic on the planet is the replacement of synthetic plastics with biopolymers. The biodegradable polymers have been adapted for most of the applications of synthetic plastic. However, their use and disposal present some sustainability challenges. Recycling emerges as an effective way of promoting the sustainability of biopolymer use. In this article, we review recycling as a viable solution to improve the sustainability of biopolymers, emphasizing the current types and technologies employed in biopolymer recycling and the challenges faced in their adoption. Our exploration of the future directions in the conversion of biopolymers into new polymers for reuse establishes a connection between established continuous technological innovation, integration into circular economy models, and the establishment and strengthening of collaborations among key stakeholders in relevant industries as necessary steps for the adoption, full utilization, and improvement of recycling technologies for biopolymers. By connecting these factors, this study lays a foundation for the establishment of a roadmap for improved biopolymer recycling technologies and processes that promote the sustainability of synthetic plastic alternatives.

Analyzing the Impact of Artificial intelligence (AI) on Decision-Making Strategies

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a major driver of change in various areas of human life, including in the development of Decision Support Systems (DSS). AI, as a rapidly growing branch of computer science, has changed the paradigm in how we process and analyze data to support the decision-making process. With its ability to learn from data, identify patterns, and make predictions, AI promises significant advances in the efficiency and accuracy of decision-making integrated in SDM. The application of AI in Human Resources has become a major topic in academic and industrial literature. The use of this technology has resulted in significant impacts, ranging from improved efficiency of the decision-making process to a paradigm shift in data analysis. Primarily, the main focus of AI application in SDM is on its ability to address the complexity and uncertainty of data faced by decision makers. the application of AI to SIM offers significant advantages in strategic decision-making This finding highlights the need for organizations to consider the appropriate use of AI, maintain data security, and monitor organizations to consider the appropriate use of AI, maintain data security, and monitor its impact to gain a competitive advantage in strategic decision-making. The findings highlight the need for organizations to consider the appropriate use of AI, maintain data security, and monitor its impact to gain a competitive advantage in making strategic decisions

Effects of urbanization on orchid bee diversity and orchid pollination: From neotropical cloud forests to urban cores

Urbanization is a significant driver of land use change, profoundly impacting biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. However, its effects in the tropics, which host some of the planet's highest biodiversity, remain inadequately understood. Orchid bees (Apidae: Euglossini) are key pollinators in Neotropical ecosystems, playing crucial roles in maintaining floral diversity and reproductive success of orchids and other plant families. Yet, little is known about how urbanization influences their diversity and pollination. In this study, we analyzed the diversity and composition or orchid bee communities along an urbanization gradient which extends from the city center to the surrounding cloud forests, which bear high orchid endemism while being highly threatened. Along the same gradient, we further evaluated pollination of a model native orchid, Gongora galeata, which is exclusively pollinated by the bee Euglossa obrima. As expected, increasing urbanization led to a decrease in orchid bee diversity, as well as a clear separation in species composition between urban and non-urban sites and a reduction in G. galeata pollination (i.e. fruit production). However, contrary to our expectations, orchid pollination also decreased with environmental heterogeneity and the abundance of its specific pollinator. Despite urban areas still hosting orchid bee species, our results reveal clear negative effects of urbanization not only on diversity, but also on the ecosystem function of a highly threatened group of bees. This study highlights the importance of considering local factors of urban landscapes for preserving not only biodiversity, but also fundamental ecological processes in cities.

Understanding change in Egypt’s social contract since 2011

ABSTRACT This paper applies the Loewe, et al. framework (2024) to the Egyptian case from 2011 to the present. It finds that this framework could be strengthened by further exploring the following drivers of change in social contracts: - balance of power within the state. In the Egyptian case, a longstanding informal contract between the Presidency and the military collapsed in 2011. The new contract between the Presidency and the military that emerged after 2013 altered the elite coalition that underlay the regime and led to change in the social contract; - structure of the labor market. The Sisi regime faced a labor market that was divided into core insiders, legacy insiders, and outsiders. It revised the social contract to direct substantial support to core insiders while reducing support to legacy insiders. Outsiders were left with even less state support. - new technologies of repression enabled the regime to monitor society more extensively, target repression more effectively, and shape the public sphere in a manner supportive of the new social contract; - international sponsors. The Gulf states and China provided financial and military assistance that buttressed the revised social contract.

The Impact of Literary Discourse on the Evolution of English Lexicon

This study explores the significant role of literary discourse in the evolution of the English lexicon, analyzing how works by authors such as Chaucer, Shakespeare, Dickens, and Joyce contributed to the development of new words and meanings. By combining qualitative and corpus-based methods, the research highlights the creative and innovative use of language in literary texts, tracing how words originating in literature entered mainstream usage. The study examines the influence of different genres, particularly drama and prose, on lexical expansion and discusses how literary creativity extends beyond word invention to reshaping existing terms. Findings suggest that literary texts serve as crucial drivers of linguistic change, shaping the dynamic evolution of English vocabulary across centuries. Future research may explore the impact of digital literature and other modern forms of media on lexical growth.

Records from Neotropical non-breeding grounds reveal shifts in bird migration phenology over six decades

Changes in the migration phenology of birds linked to global change are extensively documented. Longitudinal studies from temperate breeding grounds have mostly shown earlier arrivals in the spring and a variety of patterns during fall migration,1,2 yet no studies have addressed whether and how migration phenology has changed using data from the tropical non-breeding grounds. Understanding whether changes in migratory phenology are also evident in non-breeding sites is essential to determining the underlying causes of patterns documented in breeding areas. Using data from historical scientific collections and modern repositories of community science records, we assessed changes in the migration phenology of 12 Nearctic-Neotropical long-distance migratory birds in Colombia over six decades. We also explored whether shared breeding and non-breeding climatic niches explained variation in the phenological patterns observed among species. All species showed shifts in spring (range -37 to 9days from peak passage date) or fall (range -26 to 36days) migration, but patterns differed among species in ways partly attributable to shared breeding or wintering climatic niches. Our results, although not yet broadly generalizable, suggest that birds use cues to time their migration at their non-breeding grounds, which are most likely different to those they use on their breeding grounds. To better understand the effects of global change on biodiversity, exploring the underlying drivers of phenological changes with further research integrating more long-term datasets available through scientific collections and community science platforms should be a priority.

Drivers of trophodynamics of the open-ocean and deep-sea environments of the Azores, NE Atlantic

Marine ecosystems associated with mid-oceanic elevations harbour unique pelagic and benthic biodiversity and sustain food webs critical for Nature’s contributions to people (NCP). The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on the Law of the Sea recognize the need to implement ecosystem-based management approaches to conserve the structure and functioning of oceanic and deep-sea ecosystems within sustainable reference points. However, uncertainties regarding the interactions between multiple drivers of change, and their impacts on the state of these ecosystems and the NCP, present significant challenges to effective management. Trophic models offer a holistic approach to identify the main drivers affecting the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we used a food web model of the open-ocean and deep-sea environments of the Azores for identifying the drivers that best explain historical biomass trends of demersal fish of high commercial value. Our hindcast simulations suggested that historical trends can be explained by the combined effects of deep-sea fisheries exploitation and variability in environmental conditions, likely dominated by primary productivity anomalies. In particular, deficits in primary production and high levels of fishing exploitation might have contributed to the pronounced decline in biomass observed between 2008 and 2012. These findings reinforce that failure to consider environmental factors in ecosystem-based management may result in shortfalls at achieving biodiversity conservation and sustainability objectives, particularly in the context of climate change.

Middle Manager Resistance to, or Acceptance of Organisational Change in the Australian Public Service

This paper explores the impact of policy on organisational factors (leadership and organisational culture) and managers’ personal attributes (such as psychological capital) on their resistance to or acceptance of change. This qualitative study utilised interviews with senior leaders and focus groups with middle managers. The findings identified the impact of senior leadership and managers’ Psychological Capital on their acceptance of change. This paper identified the importance of understanding the drivers of change on managers during the change process in two public sector organisations. This paper found that the implementation of NPM reforms and austerity funding affected how managers’ interpreted new policies, which impacted their acceptance of change.

Does COVID-19 lockdown matter for air pollution in the short and long run in China? A machine learning approach to policy evaluation

This paper leverages a data-driven two-step approach to effectively evaluate the effects of COVID-19 lockdown on air pollution in both the short and long-term in China. Using air pollution, meteorological conditions, and air mass clusters from 34 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing from 2015 to 2022, this study first employs a deweathering machine learning technique to decouple the confounding effects of meteorological on the air pollution. Furthermore, a detrending percentage change indictor is applied to remove the influence of seasonal variations on air pollution. The findings reveal that: (1) Human interventions are the primary drivers of changes in air pollution concentrations, whereas meteorological factors have a relatively minor impact. (2) During the COVID-19 lockdown, significant variations in air pollution levels are observed, with the effects of city lockdown ranging from a decrease of 40.11% ± 14.81% to an increase of 20.28% ± 14.36%. Notably, there is a decline in concentrations of NO2, PM2.5, CO, and PM10, while the levels of O3 and SO2 increase even during the strictest lockdown period. (3) In the year following the COVID-19 lockdown, there is a rebound in overall air pollution levels. However, by the second year, a general decline in air pollution is observed, except for O3. Therefore, it is imperative to integrate the confounding effects of meteorological factors into air quality management policies under various future scenarios: adopt high-intensity control measures for sudden air quality deteriorations, advance green recovery initiatives for long-term emission reductions, and coordinate efforts to reduce composite atmospheric pollution.

Abalone recruitment patterns before and after sea urchin barrens formation in northern California: incorporating climate change

ABSTRACT Understanding the recruitment dynamics of invertebrates in kelp forests is critical to informing climate-ready restoration. Here we examine abalone and sea urchin recruitment (3–20 mm in size) patterns in northern California across a period of drastic change. Annual surveys were conducted before, during and after the MHW (2014–2016), the loss of a major predatory sea star (2012–2016) and the collapse of a bull kelp forest in 2014. Divers surveyed artificial reef recruitment modules (n = 12) over 20 years in an area that once supported dense bull kelp, Nereocystis leutkeana, forests and the world's largest recreational abalone fishery. From 2016 to 2022, we tracked the decline of red abalone, Haliotis rufescens, recruitment and the rise of purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, recruitment. Adult densities of purple sea urchins increased as did newly settled sea urchins (<3 mm), while adult and newly settled red abalone declined. Eight years after the kelp forest collapse, red abalone recruitment remained low and sea urchin recruitment continued to increase. Recruitment patterns can inform both abalone restoration targets and sea urchin dynamics as part of a more holistic kelp forest recovery plan that is responsive to climate change drivers.

Unexpected sustained soil carbon flux in response to simultaneous warming and nitrogen enrichment compared with single factors alone.

Recent observations document that long-term soil warming in a temperate deciduous forest leads to significant soil carbon loss, whereas chronic soil nitrogen enrichment leads to significant soil carbon gain. Most global change experiments like these are single factor, investigating the impacts of one stressor in isolation of others. Because warming and ecosystem nitrogen enrichment are happening concurrently in many parts of the world, we designed a field experiment to test how these two factors, alone and in combination, impact soil carbon cycling. Here, we show that long-term continuous soil warming or nitrogen enrichment when applied alone followed the predicted response, with warming resulting in significant soil carbon loss and nitrogen fertilization tending towards soil carbon gain. The combination treatment showed an unanticipated response, whereby soil respiratory carbon loss was significantly higher than either single factor alone, but without a concomitant decline in soil carbon storage. Observations suggest that when soils are exposed to both factors simultaneously, plant carbon inputs to the soil are enhanced, counterbalancing soil carbon loss and helping maintain soil carbon stocks near control levels. This has implications for both atmospheric CO2 emissions and soil fertility and shows that coupling two important global change drivers results in a distinctive response that was not predicted by the behaviour of the single factors in isolation.