Understanding change in Egypt’s social contract since 2011

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper applies the Loewe, et al. framework (2024) to the Egyptian case from 2011 to the present. It finds that this framework could be strengthened by further exploring the following drivers of change in social contracts: - balance of power within the state. In the Egyptian case, a longstanding informal contract between the Presidency and the military collapsed in 2011. The new contract between the Presidency and the military that emerged after 2013 altered the elite coalition that underlay the regime and led to change in the social contract; - structure of the labor market. The Sisi regime faced a labor market that was divided into core insiders, legacy insiders, and outsiders. It revised the social contract to direct substantial support to core insiders while reducing support to legacy insiders. Outsiders were left with even less state support. - new technologies of repression enabled the regime to monitor society more extensively, target repression more effectively, and shape the public sphere in a manner supportive of the new social contract; - international sponsors. The Gulf states and China provided financial and military assistance that buttressed the revised social contract.