Domestic Political Conditions Research Articles

‘Trumpism’ as a Dominant Movement in the U.S. Republican Party in the 2020s

Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election offers a fresh perspective on the nature of ‘Trumpism’, which has now firmly established itself not as a temporary or accidental fluctuation in U.S. political life, but as a stable and powerful social phenomenon. This article attempts to identify the origins and key ideological components of this trend, examining it in the context of contemporary political processes within the Republican Party. The first section of the article traces the changes in Trump’s approach to building relationships with the Republican establishment. It highlights that there were favorable domestic political conditions and an updated campaign strategy that allowed Trump to solidify his electoral position at both regional and federal levels in 2024. This marks a sharp contrast with the 2016 campaign, where he was viewed as an ‘outsider’ and a disruptive actor. The second section delves into the ideology of ‘Trumpism’ in the context of the 2024 presidential election. It notes that while Trump distanced himself from the most radical initiatives of the far-right faction of the Republican establishment during the campaign, his rhetoric was distinctly conservative and combative, especially when contrasted with the conciliatory platform of the Democrats. In conclusion, the article argues that ‘Trumpism’ has evolved into a powerful, independent movement within the Republican Party, one that is likely to maintain its influence in the years to come. At the same time, it suggests that Trump’s and the Republican Party’s victory in the U.S. reflects a broader global trend towards strengthening rightwing ideologies. In this regard, the case of the European Union is particularly noteworthy. It raises the question of how Trump’s victory will impact the positions of conservative and right-populist parties and movements across Europe.

Under Which Conditions Do Populist Governments Use Unpolitics in EU Decision-Making

Until recently, we knew very little about the role of populist governments in EU decision-making. The “crucial case” of refugee distribution within the EU demonstrated that their behaviour was ruled by unpolitics: they rejected formal and informal rules of decision-making if these were not conducive to their preferred outcome, they rejected traditional means of ensuring compromises, and they rejected solutions to perpetuate crises. However, to what extent is unpolitics a phenomenon unique to migration—an area prone to (nativist) populist capture? This thematic issue compares the behaviour of populist governments in the Council of the EU across different policy areas. The goal is to better understand under which conditions unpolitics is more likely to manifest in EU decision-making. We argue that unpolitics is intrinsically linked to vote-seeking strategies, where populist governments use EU decision-making to mobilise domestic audiences. Hence, unpolitics is more prone to “high gain” and “low risk” issues, since they can be more easily politicised. Unpolitics is also more likely to manifest in venues that act as a tribune, where populist actors can directly speak to domestic audiences. Finally, since unpolitics relies on the mobilisation of voters, it is essentially a two-level game largely determined by domestic political and socioeconomic conditions. Overall, we see that, although the EU institutions have proved relatively resilient, unpolitics is gradually unsettling and hollowing out norms, institutions, and discourses.

The Changes of United States Foreign Policy in The Arctic in 2022

The United States' (U.S.) attention to the Arctic region has intensified in recent years due to the opening of vast natural resources and the potential for new shipping routes resulting from global warming. As an Arctic nation, the U.S. has actively focused on the region. From its initial Arctic policy in 1971 until 2021, U.S. foreign policy remained relatively passive, merely outlining the general U.S. position in the region. However, in 2022, without significant changes or upheavals in the Arctic region, the U.S. significantly altered its foreign policy by incorporating military instruments To explore that factors that influenced the change in U.S. policy in the Arctic in 2022, this study employs the decision-making process theory. Utilizing qualitative research methods, the study relies on both primary and secondary data, drawn from official U.S. policies, supplemented by credible articles, news, and scholarly writings. The research identifies three factors that led to the U.S. altering its foreign policy in the Arctic in 2022: domestic political conditions, economic and military factors, and the international context.

„The German Vote“ im Rat der Europäischen Union

For some years now, officials in Brussels have labelled abstentions in the Council of the European Union as “German vote”. Contrary to this attribution, an analysis of all votes cast from 2010 to 2023 shows that members such as Poland, Hungary and, above all, the United Kingdom were outvoted more often. However, if the institutional and domestic political conditions for avoiding no votes and abstentions are taken into account, Germany performs surprisingly poorly. Therefore, Germany had to implement and apply more directives and regulations than many other member states without the consent of its own representative in the Council. New challenges arise for the Commission because broader majorities must be organised in order to get legislative acts across the finish line without German approval.

“Everything Everywhere All At Once”: Social Media, Marketing/Algorithmic Culture, and Activism in Southeast Asia

Abstract: This article delves into the intricate relationship between social media and politics, specifically concerning the dynamics of activism in Southeast Asia. It reveals that regional and domestic political conditions, the logic of marketing, and the prevalence of algorithmic culture affect the salience of this relationship. The article highlights that in today’s social media landscape, civil society operates against growing state control and repression while simultaneously navigating the emergence of algorithmic politics often characterized by binary populist frameworks and the expansion of the cyber-propaganda industry. In closing, this article calls for efforts to cultivate deep deliberation spheres needed to sustain long-term civic engagement and preserve democratic activism in the region.

Through the Eyes of a Strategist and a Diplomat: Polish-American Relations post-1918

Through the Eyes of a Strategist and a Diplomat: Polish-American Relations post-1918

The seed sector development in low-income countries: Lessons from the Malawi seed sector policy process

IntroductionExternal conditionalities have shaped public policy development in borrowing nations. This has been through top-down policy support programs, an example being the policy reforms under the structural adjustment program. Under the seed sector reforms Malawi committed to the Southern Africa Development Community and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa harmonized seed regulations technical agreements.MethodsTo contribute to the debate, we analyzed the Malawi seed sector policy process by investigating three questions: What were the leading events? Who were the stakeholders involved, and their roles? Which factors influenced the policy process? Qualitative tools were employed based on policy process theory using the Kaleidoscope Model. We used stakeholder inception, planning, feedback workshops, and key informant interviews (N = 17). This data was complemented by grey literature as secondary information. Snowball sampling was used to identify key informant interview participants based on the saturation principle. Narrative analysis focusing on content, structure, and dialogic context was used.ResultsOur results show a strong external influence on the seed sector policy process. This began after independence when development partners supported the establishment of the public agricultural research system to improve production for food security and export. Failure to achieve the earlier objectives resulted in economic reforms aimed at private sector-led seed sector development based on market-oriented policies. The increase in the private sector's role called for adopting and enacting regulatory policies and legislation that used policy transfer theory. International financial institutions, multinational companies, and regional economic communities led this process. Our evidence suggests that the civil society community in Malawi contested the policies for not recognizing farmers' rights. This affected the domestication process of the harmonized seed regulations technical agreements.DiscussionTherefore, we recommend critical consideration and embracing of existing domestic social, political, and technical conditions to support economic policy reforms. This would help reduce unintended consequences and improve inclusivity. Governments may need to play an interlocutory role for the various actors in the policy domain during the domestication process.

Analisis Konsistensi Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Mendorong Kemerdekaan Palestina

Since the beginning, The Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), as organization has had an important international role in promoting freedom of thought, as demonstrated by the establishment of the Hijaz committee. NU has continued to engage in the global arena, particularly in its support for Palestinian independence. Despite the fact that not all Palestinians are Muslim, religion has been a contributing factor in NU's unwavering support for Palestine. However, there are other dominant factors that have solidified NU's position on this issue, which are explored in this article through qualitative research methods and descriptive analysis of relevant literature and documents. The study examines NU's consistency in supporting Palestinian independence and the attitudes of four NU leaders, namely Abdurrahman Wahid, Hasyim Muzadi, Said Aqiel Siraj, and Yahya Cholil Tsaquf. Although all four leaders support Palestinian independence, their reasons and backgrounds differ, resulting in some controversy and differing mindsets within NU, Indonesian society, and even Arab embassies in Indonesia. The article argues that these differences can be attributed to variations in domestic political conditions that the leaders faced, which influenced their approaches to defending and supporting Palestine. External factors such as diplomatic relationships and non-state actors also played a role in shaping NU's stance on this issue.

Наука и коммеморация: конференция по истории отечественных спецслужб памяти А. М. Плеханова

An analytical review of the work of the II All-Russian scientific and practical conference «The activities of domestic special services in the era of social cataclysms», held on October 19–20, 2022 in Omsk, is presented. The authors of the publication (active members of the organizing committee) consider the conference as an actual phenomenon of scientific life, which took place in historical foreign and domestic political conditions that are special for Russia. Covered: the course of the event, the main content of scientific reports, key aspects of the controversy, the results of the conference are presented, the resolution is given. The review is addressed to a wide range of readers, including, first of all, researchers of historical science, Russian special services, local history and official commemoration practices.

«Громадная пиявка, присосавшаяся к государственному сундуку»: Китайско-Восточная железная дорога в оценках российской прессы начала XX века

The article examines the attitude of the Russian press of the early 20th century to the large-scale project of construction and operation of the Chinese Eastern Railway (CER), which began in the 1890s. Despite the defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, state interests did not allow the Russian government to abandon expansion in Manchuria. However, the new domestic political conditions forced it to redefine its goals and objectives in the colonization of the Far East. The Chinese Eastern Railway, built on desolate Chinese lands, over a short time turned into a kind of “state within a state” with its own head (manager), ministries (Land Department, Traction Service, etc.), police and army (Border Guard of the Zaamursky District), court, system of municipal government, education, and healthcare. Since the operation of the road required significant financial costs, this circumstance could not go unnoticed by journalists and the public. The problems of financing railway construction were the subject of consideration at the State Duma meetings. The data of the Budget Commission of the Duma became public. This resulted in appearance of a number of publications in the press. The state of the CER affairs was widely discussed in various circles. Of greatest interest were the publications of people who knew the situation from the inside. They sharply criticized the Manchurian project of penetration into the East, considering it erroneous. Since it was impossible to liquidate the unsuccessful commercial project in foreseeable future, a number of measures were proposed to streamline the operation of the road. These were to include introduction of state control over the CER, reduction in funds allocated for the maintenance of the Road Administration and the Board of the CER Society, as well as reduction of official transportation. It seemed to minimize the losses in the road operation.

SEEKING COALITION IN EUROPE AGAINST THE SUBLIME PORTE ON THE EVE OF THE BATTLE OF MOHACS AND HUNGARY

The place of the Hungarian Kingdom before Mohacs in Europe and its political maneuverability are of great importance in the comprehensive analysis of Ottoman-Hungarian connections. Thus, the place occupied by the Buda administration in European diplomacy and its attempts to maintain its political presence against the Sublime Porte [Dîvân-ı Hümâyûn] will be clearly revealed. In this way, developments that have a direct impact on Hungarian foreign policy are centered in this study. The time interval was determined as the years 1521-1522. Thus, the Ottoman raids that led to the conquest of Hungary were accepted as the starting point. The events were brought up to the conquest of Rhodes, which shook the balance of power in Europe and pointed out that the Hungarian Kingdom could not hold out any longer. In the aforementioned process, it was not aimed to review the signs of internal crisis in Hungary. For this reason, the domestic political and economic conditions of the country were not mentioned. Finally, the political and military approach of the Western European monarchs to the Hungarian Kingdom is discussed. In addition, the complex nature of multi-layered relations and the loneliness of Hungary due to being away from the west of Europe were tried to be reflected. As a matter of fact, it cannot be said that the only factor in Hungary’s foreign policy was the Ottoman threat until the conquest efforts of Sultan Suleiman. Despite the Turkish threat, the Hungarian kings Sigismund, Matthias Corvinus and to some extent the Jagiellonian Dynasty are not only observers but also guides in European politics. In the relevant context, the analyzes are intended to illustrate the characteristics of the political relationship network in during the collapse of the Hungarian Kingdom.

Hybrid Warfare in the Western Balkans: How Structural Vulnerability Attracts Maligned Powers and Hostile Influence

Abstract This study analyzes the domestic political, economic, and social conditions in the Western Balkans that provide fertile ground for hostile and maligned actors to manipulate and exploit governments and societies with hybrid war measures, namely cyberattacks and cyber intrusions and disinformation and fake news. It begins with a review and assessment of the prevailing empirical and theoretical literature on hybrid warfare. It then describes two leading empirical indices that measure degrees of permeability and structural vulnerability that elevate or reduce the risks associated with maligned and hostile interventions. The article also examines leading indicators measuring resilience levels in cybersecurity and media/information literacy, highlighting political, social, and economic vulnerabilities. It concludes by suggesting that domestic conditions in the region encourage maligned and hostile actors, especially Russia and for different reasons and to a lesser extent China and Turkey, to use hybrid measures to exploit the region. The article proposes that in addition to strengthening institutions and trust, membership in NATO and the E.U. are directly related to mitigating structural vulnerability and reducing uncertainty and insecurity in the Western Balkans.

THE PEARL OF DEMOCRACY OF THE EAST - PARLIAMENT OF THE AZERBAIJAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

The article deals with the Parliament of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, the first democratic state of the East and the Turkic-Muslim world. The ADR parliament, the world's first democratic state institution, was formed in difficult domestic and foreign political conditions. Nevertheless, it was based on democratic principles and remained true to these ideas until the Bolshevik occupation. Here information is given about the establishment of the parliament, its activities and composition. The parliament recognized the right of all nations living in the territory of the ADR to be represented. The parliament has placed a small number of national minorities. It is clear from all this information that all the rights and freedoms of the country's citizens have been ensured in the ADR parliament.

Constitution and International Law: A New Model of Interaction

The paper analyzes the constitutional reform in Russia with an emphasis on the constitutional amendment on the interaction of the norms of international law and national legislation within the domestic legal system. Constitutional provisions and doctrinal approaches enshrined there play an important role in ensuring stable and predictable international relations. The paper discusses the possibility of applying two classical doctrines on the relationship between international and national law (dualistic and monistic) to the definition of the characteristics of amendments to Article 79 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation. The authors substantiate the necessity of introducing constitutional amendments from the point of view of the development of international relations and the maturation of domestic political, economic and social conditions over the past decades. Some doctrines of interpretation of international treaties of interstate bodies and the possibility of determining the parameters of their execution in the legal system of Russia are considered. It is concluded that the new model of interaction between international and Russian law corresponds to the principle of sovereign equality of states enshrined in the UN Charter. The authors summarize that the supplement of the constitutional norm under consideration clarifies the constitutional model of the relationship between international and Russian law. It allows for the full implementation of the provisions of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, as well as the execution of international legal acts, including decisions of interstate bodies that comply with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which eliminates possible threats to destabilize the rule of law of the state. Thus, we are not talking about adopting a radical model of the primacy of national law over international law, but rather about adapting the doctrine of dialectical interaction between Russian and international law to the needs of modern development of our state.

Zimbabwe: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe experienced severe exogenous shocks (cyclone Idai, protracted drought, and the COVID-19 pandemic) during 2019-20, which along with policy missteps in 2019, led to a deep recession and high inflation. Real GDP contracted cumulatively by 11.7 percent during 2019-20 and inflation reached 837 percent (y/y) by July 2020. Reflecting good rainfall and relaxation of containment measures, real GDP rose by 6.3 percent in 2021. A tighter policy stance since mid-2020 (relative to 2019) has contributed to reducing inflation to 60.7 percent (y/y) at end-2021. However, high double-digit inflation and wide parallel foreign exchange (FX) market premia persist. The economic downturn and high inflation increased the financial system vulnerabilities. Extreme poverty has risen and about a third of the population is at risk of food insecurity. The international community seeks improvements in domestic political conditions and economic policies to initiate reengagement with Zimbabwe. The authorities have started token payments to external creditors in a bid to revive international reengagement.

Who Is Credible? Government Popularity and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Lending

In this paper, I explain variations in international investors’ reactions to International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs. Investors react favorably if a borrowing government is credibly committed to implementing essential IMF conditionality. Instead of engaging complex information processing about economic reform, however, investors rely on a heuristic device to assess the borrower’s domestic political conditions. I argue that a borrowing government’s popularity is an important cue for investors to assess the prospect of an IMF program. Investors associate higher government popularity with better implementation of the program and react more favorably to more popular borrowers. Using annual data from up to 52 emerging market economies from 1998 to 2017, I find robust statistical evidence supporting these claims: an IMF program alone does not restore investor confidence. Rather, an IMF program carried out by a strong government does. My findings have important implications for the study of global financial governance and credible commitment.

An Analysis of South Korean TRUST Diplomacy toward Indonesia in Pandemic Covid-19

This paper analyzes the factors that influenced South Korea to issue TRUST diplomacy and made Indonesia as the object of its diplomacy during the Covid-19 pandemic. In previous year before Covid-19 outbreak, Indonesia and South Korea had experienced stagnation in strategic economic cooperation negotiations, but the two countries managed to reach the agreement in the early of 2020. This research will use qualitative research methods. Based on William D. Coplin's theory of foreign policy making, it was found that domestic political conditions, the influence of sentiment on trade liberalization from the business group, the decline in South Korean exports due to the trade war and South Korea's relations with Japan, and South Korea's status as a middle power country in the world as well as Indonesia's position as a bridge for South Korea to enter the ASEAN market which is the biggest driving factor for South Korea to carry out TRUST diplomacy in Indonesia. South Korea took advantage of the pandemic momentum to appear to form a positive image and increase the confidence of its strategic partner countries

Строение Особенной части Уголовного кодекса Российской Федерации: современность и перспективы

The aim of the presented work is a legal analysis of the structure of the Special Part of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation from 1996 to 2020 in order to identify trends in contemporary criminal law construction and prospects for the structuring of Russian criminal legislation. We have studied individual structural components available in the Special Part of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (such as chapters, sections, articles, as well as special attention to the dispositions, sanctions and notes to the articles of the Special Part of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) in the context of the modern development of socio-economic and political relations. Particular attention is paid to the methods of legislative technique in the construction of the Special Part of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. The tendencies typical of the modern criminal legislation were revealed. Attention was drawn to the presence of certain differences in the construction of the Soviet criminal codes and the current criminal law. Opinions existing in doctrine on the problem of construction of the modern criminal law of Russia are given. It is shown that the systematic ongoing permanent changes in the content of the articles of the Special Part of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation leads to a significant violation of the logic of the criminal law system of Russia as a whole, as well as entails the creation of irreducible inconsistencies and contradictions within the current criminal law. The lack of a holistic understanding of the basis and content of the criminal law leads to haphazard changes and transformations, which create chaos inside the criminal law document. The paper argues that the only way out of the current situation is the development of a unified concept of structuring the criminal law of the Russian Federation. The concept must be based on historical experience, on prevailing domestic political, economic and social conditions, on international legal agreements, on criminological foundations, on modern achievements in legislative technique and, of course, on the latest doctrinal research. In the first quarter of the XXI century criminal and legal doctrine has carried out a profound scientific synthesis in the structure and content of the General and Special parts of the criminal law and created all the necessary groundwork for the development of a new Criminal Code of the Russian Federation or for the proposal of a new edition of the existing criminal law. The authors declare no conflicts of interests.

Political Visionary of the Founder of Visegrad Group

The purpose of this article is to present the creation of the Visegrad Group as a result of the political visionary of the first post-communist leaders of Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia - Lech Walesa, Jozef Antal, Arpad Gönz and Vaclav Havel. United by their identical views on the future, they put aside long-standing bilateral contradictions and chose to cooperate with each other in the name of successful integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Built to speed up pre-accession negotiations, the Visegrad Group proved to be a viable and effective organization that even intensified its activities after the accession of its members to the EU in 2004, and three decades after its establishment it established itself as one of the most stable regional organizations. The article describes the domestic political conditions in the three countries after the fall of the totalitarian system, as well as the changed international situation. The new foreign policy priorities, which are the basis of the idea of unification, are clarified in detail. The activities of the three statesmen as dissidents and their ideas for the future development of the society, which are the basis of the partnership between the Central European countries, are presented. The factors that influenced the establishment of the Visegrad Group are clarified, as well as the principles on which the cooperation between the member states is built. The primary goals of the organization are revealed on the basis of the founding declaration. It is concluded that thanks to the political visionary of its founders, the Visegrad Group is an example of effective cooperation.

THE CASPIAN REGION IN MODERN POLITICS: PROBLEMS OF REGIONAL COOPERATION

The Caspian region appears in international political terms with the USSR collapse. It includes five littoral countries - Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan, which are building cooperation with each other and with non-regional actors in the new geopolitical conditions. The formation of relations is influenced both by the common and diverse national interests of the Caspian states, and by the constant direct and indirect impact of external players: the United States, the European Union, China and Turkey. Each of them regards the Caspian region as the most important strategic space for political and economic control over Eurasia in accordance with their own interests. The interest of the world powers in strengthening their influence in the Caspian Sea is connected, firstly, with oil and gas reserves, and secondly, with the fact that the region is the center of Eurasia, where a transport transit corridor connecting Europe with various regions of Asia passes. The domestic and foreign political conditions of the Caspian region are not easy. The main problems of regional cooperation are the disunity of the region, the potential for the implementation of "color revolutions" against the background of socio-economic difficulties. The "domino effect" in development of the situation is quite real. There is no reliable mechanism to protect regional interests. The first steps to form multilateral cooperation have been taken on the basis of The Convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea.