Domestic Carbon Research Articles

How does a carbon tax affect Britain’s power generation composition?

The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of different carbon tax rates on the power generation composition of Britain. This was accomplished via a regional, geospatial model, accounting for regional loads, transmission losses and generators of Britain’s current energy infrastructure. This regional model is also compared to a pure dispatch, nationally aggregated model which considers only costs on the generator side inclusive of the carbon tax, thus allowing the effect of including geospatial conditions to be identified. The effect of this tax (in both the geospatial and nationally aggregated cases) is a transition from coal to combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generated power to fulfil demand unmet by nuclear or renewable sources. The more sophisticated regional model, however, differs from the nationally aggregated case by having a significantly larger window of carbon tax rates over which this coal to CCGT transition occurs. Due regional differences in demand and installed capacity technology types it is determined that more than 50% of this transition occurs prior to CCGT becoming more economical than coal from a pure dispatch (nationally aggregated) perspective. Primarily due to CCGT generators typically being closer to larger southern loads than northern coal, transmission losses and the economic disincentive of a carbon tax combine in encouraging this transition. The transition window, therefore, is not only broadened by the consideration of geospatial effects, but furthermore, this broadening significantly and disproportionately occurs by decreasing the lower bound of this transition window. These findings validate the significance of utilising a geospatial model, particularly of regional resolution. They further identify the deployment of current energy infrastructure in Britain under differing carbon tax regimes and by extension, the transition window (found to be from coal to CCGT) an increasing carbon tax rate would create. These results bear not only significance in understanding the UK’s currently incrementing (top-up) carbon tax rate, but also shed light on future policies due to the UK’s leaving of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), with immediate plans to continue with a domestic carbon tax and trading scheme. Thus, these results hold importance in the understanding the effect of carbon taxation on existing infrastructure, energy modelling and national policy in the UK.

Understanding public support for domestic contributions to global collective goods

We contribute to the growing literature on how political support for domestic policies that contribute to global collective goods is impacted by other countries’ policy actions. To do so, we focus on carbon taxation, one of the most important yet contested policy instruments for mitigating global warming, in the world’s third largest economy, Japan. Using a combination of two experiments embedded in a representative public opinion survey, we examine arguments relating to how the adoption and level of ambition of other countries’ carbon taxes affect the public’s preferences for current and future carbon tax designs. We find evidence that the choices of other countries affect both support for carbon taxation and preferences over its design. More ambitious carbon pricing in other countries increases support for carbon taxation, while less ambitious pricing reduces support. Moreover, information about lower carbon prices in other countries decreases support more than other countries having no carbon taxation at all. Public support for more stringent domestic carbon pricing thus hinges on the policy choices of other countries, contrary to other environmental issues. Our research also shows, however, that particular domestic policy design choices can help in mitigating otherwise negative effects of non-cooperative behavior by other countries.

Embodied carbon emissions of aluminum-containing commodities in international trade: China’s perspective

In recent years, global climate change has become an increasingly serious problem. Developing countries have assumed excessive responsibilities for carbon emissions under the principle of producer responsibility. A system that considers material flows to establish the responsibility for carbon emissions more accurately and fairly was proposed. In this study, the embodied carbon emissions (ECEs) of aluminum-containing commodities (ACC) in China’s international trade from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed via material flow analysis. The carbon emission coefficients of China’s imported and exported ACC were calculated and discussed. The main conclusions were as follows: (1)The annual imported and exported aluminum in ACC showed a fluctuating growth from 2008 to 2017. Overall, China imported a large amount of alumina and exports a large amount of aluminum-containing end products (ACEP) and semi-products (SP). (2) The imported and exported ECEs of ACC were mainly due to ACEP, which account for 57% and 68% of the imported and exported ECEs of ACC, respectively. (3) The ECEs of ACEP in international trade were mainly associated with vehicles, manufacturing equipment, and aircraft. (4) The share of exported and net exported ACC’s ECEs in domestic carbon emissions (calculated using the principle of producer responsibility) also increased from 1.3 and 0.9% to 2.8 and 1.7%. In addition, a more accurate share of international carbon emission responsibility was discussed, and policy recommendations to reduce carbon emissions and actively respond to global climate change were provided.

The impact of economic complexity on embodied carbon emission in trade: new empirical evidence from cross-country panel data

Establishing a fair platform for allocating carbon emission responsibility worldwide determines the sustainability and efficiency of the world’s climate policy and framework. In the context of global environmental load displacement and CO2 transfer, this paper endeavors to examine the relationship between economic complexity and embodied carbon emissions based on cross-country panel data. Our study utilizes the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach to estimate our dynamic models covering 34 OECD countries and 24 non-OECD countries from 1995 to 2015. The empirical results show a heterogeneous impact of economic complexity on embodied carbon emissions in exports (EEE) and imports (EEI). Besides, the scale effect, composition effect, and technology effect are also significant drivers of embodied carbon emissions. The improvement of economic complexity can decrease the marginal effects of export scale and export structure on foreign EEE (but not domestic EEE) significantly, while the marginal positive impacts of technology on EEE can be further enhanced by economic complexity growth. Moreover, there is no strong evidence to prove the significant indirect impacts of economic complexity on foreign carbon emission embodied in imports, while economic complexity has significantly positive indirect impacts on domestic carbon emission embodied in imports only through import scale. In the subsample regressions, we found asymmetric impacts of economic complexity between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries.

CeO2-doped – domestic carbon material decorated with MWCNT as an efficient green sensing platform for electrooxidation of dopamine

The goal of this work was to develop green electrode material that unites all advantages of domestic made, synthesized porous carbon powder and ceria dioxide nanoparticles known due to exceptional catalytic properties. Thermal decomposition of Novolac phenol-formaldehyde resin and cerium sulfate resulting in producing a high-performance CeO2 porous carbon material highly sensitive to dopamine (DA) electrooxidation. Morphological and structural characteristics of the material were determined by SEM and XRD measurements, while electrochemical characterization was performed by EIS and CV. The sensitivity of DA determination on the proposed CeO2-doped carbon material was enhanced by adding multi-wall carbon nanotubes to finally prepare a mixture for a specific carbon paste electrode (TPCeO2&MWCNT@CPE). SWV technique was used for quantification of dopamine in Britton-Robinson buffer pH 6 in the concentration range of 0.5-100 μM of DA, with the detection limit of 0.14 μM and quantification limit of 0.44 μM. Good selectivity overstudied bioactive compounds enables the successful and efficient application of the proposed electrode and developed an analytical procedure for the determination of dopamine in spiked urine samples.

Synergistic Effect of Carbon Trading Scheme on Carbon Dioxide and Atmospheric Pollutants

To estimate the synergistic emission reduction effect resulting from carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilots launched in 2013, this study estimated the synergistic emission reduction relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) and atmospheric pollutants, consisting of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), dust pollutants (Dust) and particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5). Using the extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and the IPAT equation, the synergistic emission reduction effect was decomposed into direct and indirect categories driven by energy efficiency, economic development and industrial structure. Moreover, the synergistic emission reduction effect of ETS pilots was quantified with the difference-in-differences method (DID) and propensity score matching difference-in-differences method (PSM-DID). The results show that, from 2013 to 2016, CO2 and atmospheric pollutants achieved emission reduction synergistically through ETS, among which the synergistic emission reduction effect between CO2 and SO2 was most significant. Compared with the direct category, the indirect category accounted for smaller proportion of the synergistic emission reduction effect. The combined action of energy efficiency and industrial structure has a potential positive influence on synergistic emission reduction effect of ETS. Consequently, this suggests that the government needs to develop the domestic carbon market further, improve energy efficiency and optimize industrial structure to promote synergistic emission reduction.

Mechanical properties of unidirectional carbon fiber composites based on domestic T800H carbon fiber, M40J graphite fiber and their mixtures

Mechanical properties of unidirectional carbon fiber composites based on domestic T800H carbon fiber, M40J graphite fiber and their mixtures

The distribution and regional determinants of nationally financed emissions-reduction projects in China

As the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has experienced a decline in investments, major host countries in this mechanism have met with a surplus capacity in the production of carbon offset credits. One of these countries is China, which has turned its focus to its own emission trading institutions, such as the ‘China Certified Emission Reduction’ (CCER) scheme, a domestic carbon offsetting mechanism. In this study, we analyse this mechanism by identifying the regional determinants of the emissions-reduction projects. We examine the distribution of 2789 projects of China Certified Emission Reduction scheme and use regional economic attributes to predict the number of projects in 30 Chinese Provinces. Results from a panel data analysis indicate that these projects are more likely to be implemented in locations where per capita GDP is lower, CO2 emissions is higher, energy intensity is higher, and the amount of domestic loan is larger. This voluntary carbon market in China continues to demonstrate economic sensitivity in project implementation as it moves towards a new governing system in the post-CDM context. These findings could provide insights into the prospects for market-driven emission reduction initiatives in China and facilitate their mitigation actions.

Study on production technology and surface morphology of carbon fiber

Since the 21st century, China’s carbon fiber industry has begun to develop rapidly. The research and development of carbon fiber is a major project related to national strategic security. Carbon fiber production technology has been mature, among which PAN based carbon fiber has the largest capacity. However, compared with the imported carbon fiber materials, there is still a certain gap in the performance of domestic carbon fiber materials. The purpose of this paper is to compare the properties of domestic carbon fiber and its composites. Firstly, the production process of carbon fiber is introduced, including monomer polymerization, spinning, oiling, preoxidation, carbonization, graphitization and other steps. Then, the T700 Carbon Fibers of Toray, Japan and two kinds of domestic T700 Carbon Fibers of Hengshen and Weihai were characterized and analyzed, and the surface morphology of three kinds of carbon fibers was compared. It is found that the domestic carbon fiber of Weihai adopts the similar technology of thousand spray wet spinning, and the fiber surface is smooth. However, Hengshen carbon fiber adopts the wet spinning process. There are grooves on the surface of the fiber, which will increase the mechanical meshing force between the fiber and the resin, and have a positive significance for the interface performance of the composite. However, it will increase the probability of fiber defects, such as fine lines, and have a negative impact on its tensile properties and other mechanical properties.

Combined application of the EM-DEA and EX-ACT approaches for integrated assessment of resource use efficiency, sustainability and carbon footprint of smallholder maize production practices in sub-Saharan Africa

The goal to improve food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) through domestic, resource efficient and low carbon agriculture is importance. Interventions to produce more food could impact the resource-base and lead to increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agroecosystems. Unfortunately, existing methods are limited in analyzing small-scale agricultural systems, and this situation is an obstacle to decision making which aims at sustainable agriculture. In this paper, we showcase the recently developed Emergy-Data Envelopment Analysis (EM-DEA) approach to assess the resource use efficiency (RUE) and sustainability in maize production systems in Ghana, SSA. Using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), five land use and resource management scenarios were modeled to represent practices as decision making units (DMUs) in small-scale maize systems. The carbon footprint of the systems was assessed using an approach, which we adapted from the FAO Ex-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT). The overall trend of the results showed that the yield, total emergy, GHG emissions and carbon footprint all increased with increase in urea application intensity. However, the relationship between the yield and urea intensity was not always linear. A system that used more renewable or fewer resources to produce a yield equal to that of its peer was considered more efficient and sustainable in relative terms. In particular, the business-as-usual scenario (12 kg/ha/yr NPK input to rainfed maize system, i.e. Extensive12) was inefficient when compared to the four contrasting scenarios. The ecological intensive scenario (20 kg/ha/yr urea input to rainfed maize-legume intercropping system, i.e. Intercrop20) achieved the greatest marginal yield, better RUE and sustainability. The high input scenario (100 kg/ha/yr urea input plus supplemental irrigation to maize monoculture, i.e. Intensive100) produced the greatest yield, but the demand for purchased inputs as well as GHG emissions and carbon footprint were greatest. The no external input scenario (0 kg/ha/yr urea input to rainfed maize system, i.e. Extensive0), and the moderate input scenario (50 kg/ha/yr urea input plus supplemental irrigation to maize monoculture, i.e. Intensive50) showed the greatest and least yield gaps relative to Intensive100, respectively. Based on these results and trade-off analysis, it was evident that Intercrop20 and Intensive50 were the two best case scenarios. As such, land use policy that aims at sustainable agriculture could recommend Intercrop20 and Intensive50 for implementation in low and high input maize production systems, respectively. Comparison between our results and other existing empirical studies revealed similarities that confirm our results. We conclude that the information derived using the EM-DEA and EX-ACT approaches could be useful when making informed decisions that aim at sustainable agriculture. Despite the limitation caused by scarcity of data, the use of the EM-DEA approach led to inclusive information on RUE and sustainability of the DMUs. Hence, the EM-DEA approach represents a way forward to better assess energy footprint in agricultural land use as a whole.

Conjugation of border and domestic carbon adjustment and implications under production and consumption-based accounting of India's National Emission Inventory: A recursive dynamic CGE analysis

India initiated prudent measures voluntarily in the last two decades to combat against excessive carbon emissions. Acknowledging these initiatives, the study conjoins the policy of ‘border carbon adjustment (BCA)’ by the developed countries on Indian export with the ‘domestic carbon adjustment (DCA)’ by India to evaluate its impact on emission reduction and the macroeconomy. The study also raises an inconsistency in this dual carbon adjustment under the production-based accounting (PBA) of the ‘national emission inventory (NEI)’ and conducts simulation experiments under the PBA and alternatively proposed consumption-based accounting (CBA) framework. The results reveal that the closer the rates of BCA and DCA the more effective the carbon adjustment schemes are. The dual carbon adjustment also found giving better outcome under the CBA than PBA. The result of carbon-revenue recycling schemes suggest direct compensation to the enterprises for making the economy recover from the carbon tax-distortions in the most effective way.

Carbon adjustment in a consumption-based emission inventory accounting: a CGE analysis and implications for a developing country

Because 'border carbon adjustment (BCA)' may violate the presently operational National Emission Inventory (NEI) accounting practised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which is based on territorial production-based emission reduction responsibility approach, this study intends to investigate the implications of BCA imposition on the exports from a developing country under a territorial consumption-based alternative framework. With this alternative framework of accounting, the study assumes the BCA-burdened developing country to implement 'domestic carbon adjustment (DCA)' measures and experiments by applying a static 'computable general equilibrium (CGE)' modelling. The result from this study indicates that the closer the rates of BCA and the DCA, the more effective the carbon adjustment schemes are to reduce the emission intensity of energy use. The stricter carbon adjustment measures also found changing the energy consumption pattern of productive sectors by inducing the emission-intensive sectors to switch towards low-emission intensive natural gas. The study recommends the implementation of DCA measures for a developing country as stricter as compared to the foreign standards in a consumption-based framework to make the carbon adjustment initiatives more effective.

Analysis on carbon emission reduction path and expected effect of inland river ships in China

In order to systematically study the carbon emission reduction path suitable for China's inland river ships, this paper analyzes the actual situation of China's inland river ships ' operation scale, fleet structure, fuel consumption, etc., and combines the development of domestic and foreign carbon emission reduction technologies and the ship's own operating characteristics. Carbon emission reduction technology paths for China's inland river ships have been proposed in this paper, which includes different tonnage classes, different ship ages, and different types of river ships. Also, the expected application effects of each technology path are analyzed in depth in this paper. The research results can give a certain support for the implementation of carbon emission reduction in China's shipping industry.

Climate Mitigation Policy in Denmark: A Prototype for Other Countries

Denmark has a highly ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 70 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. While there is general agreement that carbon pricing should be the centerpiece of Denmark’s mitigation strategy, pricing needs to be effective, address equity and leakage concerns, and be reinforced by additional measures at the sectoral level. The strategy Denmark develops can be a good prototype for others to follow. This paper discusses mechanisms to scale up domestic carbon pricing, compensate households, and possibly combine pricing with a border carbon adjustment. It also recommends the use of revenue-neutral feebate schemes to strengthen mitigation incentives, particularly for transportation and agriculture, fisheries and forestry, though these schemes could also be applied more widely.

Opimal Unilateral Climate Policy with Carbon Leakage at the Extensive and the Intensive Margin

We analyse the optimal design of unilateral climate policy in an open economy where the government is committed to a target for reduction of domestic CO2 emissions but where it is also concerned about carbon leakage. We highlight the importance of distinguishing between leakage at the extensive margin where firms relocate to a foreign country to avoid the domestic carbon tax, and leakage at the intensive margin where domestic firms lose world market shares to foreign competitors due to the tax. Assuming that the government cannot implement border carbon adjustments, we show that the optimal allocation can still be implemented through a combination of taxes on emissions, taxes on domestic consumption of energy and final goods, an output subsidy as well as a lump-sum location subsidy to leakage-exposed firms, subsidies to carbon capture, taxes on domestic production of fossil fuels, and a subsidy to domestic production of green energy. Simulation experiments indicate that the social welfare gain from implementing the optimal leakage-adjusted tax-subsidy scheme rather than a single uniform emissions tax could amount to 0.5 percent of national income. A location subsidy aimed at reducing leakage at the extensive margin contributes to reducing the welfare loss from leakage.

IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO2 emissions and economic growth

Scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate science and policy. Recent studies find that observed trends and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections of global CO2 emissions have diverged from emission scenario outlooks widely employed in climate research. Here, we quantify the bases for this divergence, focusing on Kaya Identity factors: population, per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), energy intensity (energy consumption/GDP), and carbon intensity (CO2 emissions/energy consumption). We compare 2005–2017 observations and IEA projections to 2040 of these variables, to ‘baseline’ scenario projections from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) used in the upcoming Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). We find that the historical divergence of observed CO2 emissions from baseline scenario projections can be explained largely by slower-than-projected per-capita GDP growth—predating the COVID-19 crisis. We also find carbon intensity divergence from baselines in IEA’s projections to 2040. IEA projects less coal energy expansion than the baseline scenarios, with divergence expected to continue to 2100. Future economic growth is uncertain, but we show that past divergence from observations makes it unlikely that per-capita GDP growth will catch up to baselines before mid-century. Some experts hypothesize high enough economic growth rates to allow per-capita GDP growth to catch up to or exceed baseline scenarios by 2100. However, we argue that this magnitude of catch-up may be unlikely, in light of: headwinds such as aging and debt, the likelihood of unanticipated economic crises, the fact that past economic forecasts have tended to over-project, the aftermath of the current pandemic, and economic impacts of climate change unaccounted-for in the baseline scenarios. Our analyses inform the rapidly evolving discussions on climate and development futures, and on uses of scenarios in climate science and policy.

Climate Mitigation Policy in Denmark

Denmark has a highly ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 70 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. While there is general agreement that carbon pricing should be the centerpiece of Denmark’s mitigation strategy, pricing needs to be effective, address equity and leakage concerns, and be reinforced by additional measures at the sectoral level. The strategy Denmark develops can be a good prototype for others to follow. This paper discusses mechanisms to scale up domestic carbon pricing, compensate households, and possibly combine pricing with a border carbon adjustment. It also recommends the use of revenue-neutral feebate schemes to strengthen mitigation incentives, particularly for transportation and agriculture, fisheries and forestry, though these schemes could also be applied more widely.

Climate-Related Stress Testing

This paper explores three possible transmission channels for transition risk shocks to the financial system in Norway. First, we estimate the direct firm-level impact of a substantial increase in domestic carbon prices under severe assumptions. Second, we map the impact of a drastic increase in global carbon prices on the domestic economy via the Norwegian oil sector. Third, we model the impact of a forced reduction in Norwegian oil firms’ output on shareholder portfolios. Results show that such a sharp increase in carbon prices would have a significant but manageable impact on banks. Finally, the paper discusses ways to advance the still evolving field of transition risk stress testing.

국산 고강도 탄소섬유를 적용한 6.8 L 복합재 압력용기의 강도전이율 평가

국산 고강도 탄소섬유를 적용한 6.8 L 복합재 압력용기의 강도전이율 평가

Common but differentiated leadership: strategies and challenges for carbon neutrality by 2050 across industrialized economies

Given their historic emissions and economic capability, we analyze a leadership role for representative industrialized regions (EU, US, Japan, and Australia) in the global climate mitigation effort. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND, we systematically compare region-specific mitigation strategies and challenges of reaching domestic net-zero carbon emissions in 2050. Embarking from different emission profiles and trends, we find that all of the regions have technological options and mitigation strategies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. Regional characteristics are mostly related to different land availability, population density and population trends: While Japan is resource limited with respect to onshore wind and solar power and has constrained options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR), their declining population significantly decreases future energy demand. In contrast, Australia and the US benefit from abundant renewable resources, but face challenges to curb industry and transport emissions given increasing populations and high per-capita energy use. In the EU, lack of social acceptance or EU-wide cooperation might endanger the ongoing transition to a renewable-based power system. CDR technologies are necessary for all regions, as residual emissions cannot be fully avoided by 2050. For Australia and the US, in particular, CDR could reduce the required transition pace, depth and costs. At the same time, this creates the risk of a carbon lock-in, if decarbonization ambition is scaled down in anticipation of CDR technologies that fail to deliver. Our results suggest that industrialized economies can benefit from cooperation based on common themes and complementary strengths. This may include trade of electricity-based fuels and materials as well as the exchange of regional experience on technology scale-up and policy implementation.