Domestic Bond Research Articles

How Banks Respond to Distress: Shifting Risks in Europe's Banking Union

This paper uses granular bond portfolio data to study how banking systems across the European Union (EU) adjust their asset holdings in response to regulatory solvency shocks. We also study the impact of these shocks at financial intermediaries on the prices of bonds in their portfolio. Despite the creation of a Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) in the EU, we find that risk-shifting interacts with regulatory arbitrage motives to explain how banks adjust their portfolios after adverse solvency shocks. After regulatory solvency declines, banks increase their exposure to domestic bonds, including higher yielding but zero risk-weight sovereign bonds. The increase in banking system risk might therefore be even larger than the decline in risk-weighted solvency ratios suggests. Distress in the banking system also feeds back onto bond prices. Bonds owned by less-well capitalized banking systems trade at a discount relative to otherwise similar bonds owned by better capitalized intermediaries.

Government Domestic Borrowing and Private Sector Credit Crowding out: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

The impact of government domestic borrowing on the private sector credit has been a subject of great interest to researchers in finance. This study looked at the impact of government domestic borrowing on private sector credit in Nigeria. Government domestic borrowing can affect the private sector by crowding out private sector credit directly or indirectly through rising interest rates. The study employed an ex-post research methodology. Secondary data was collected from the Debt Management Office Nigeria and the Central Bank of Nigeria. The study covered a 10-year period from 2009 to 2018. An OLS multiple regression model was used. Government domestic borrowing was proxied by federal government bond issuances as the dependent variable. The deposit money banks’ prime lending rates, private sector lending by the banks, the bank’s investment in treasury bills and government bonds were the independent variables. The data was tested for heteroscedasticity, stationarity, normality, multicollinearity and serial correlation to examine the robustness of the model. The results showed that prime lending rate has a positive effect on government bond issuance although not significant. The findings also indicated that there is a negative relationship between government domestic bond issuance and the banks credit to private sector. However, this relationship is not statistically significant implying that government borrowing may not have crowded-out private sector. The relationship between government bond issuances and bank investment in treasury bills and government bond is negative although not significant. The findings of this study suggest that government domestic borrowing in Nigeria may have resulted in the reduction of private credit and this works through the credit channel and the interest rate channel.

The Impact of Domestic and External Public Debt on the Economic Growth of Jordan

Since the beginning of the new millennium several developing countries have been making greater use of domestic bond markets, with a corresponding decline in gross and net foreign debt-to-GDP ratios. Jordan was not an exception; the structure of the public debt in Jordan has exhibited a similar shift towards the domestic borrowings after the year 2000. In order to assess the economic consequences of this change in the public debt structure, this study investigates the impact of the structure of the public debt and other determinants of growth on the economic growth in Jordan over the period 1980 – 2018. The analysis of the long-run relationship between the domestic and external public debt and the economic growth is reliant on the theoretical assumptions and the empirical concerns and it is conducted by applying the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method; the results indicate that the external and domestic public borrowings are negatively associated with economic growth with a greater magnitude of the domestic debt in the long-run; the greater magnitude of the negative implication of domestic debt on economic growth is attributed to the increased trend of domestic debt that has been increasing in excess of the external debt since 2008. On the other hand, investment, labor force growth, and openness of trade are found to be positively associated with economic growth in the long-run. Accordingly, this study recommends the need to reduce the public debt and budget deficit to moderate levels in the long-run through implementing austerity measures and fiscal discipline that are carefully planned to minimize the potential negative effect on economic growth, where they should be implemented along with fiscal reforms intended for increasing employment and boosting Jordan’s growth potential. It is also recommended that the government should thoroughly revise the debt management strategy, so as to avoid the deterring effects of the increased stock of domestic debt on capital accumulation and economic growth in the long-run.

How Banks Respond to Distress: Shifting Risks in Europe’s Banking Union

This paper uses granular bond portfolio data to study how banking systems across the European Union (EU) adjust their asset holdings in response to regulatory solvency shocks. We also study the impact of these shocks at financial intermediaries on the prices of bonds in their portfolio. Despite the creation of a Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) in the EU, we find that risk-shifting interacts with regulatory arbitrage motives to explain how banks adjust their portfolios after adverse solvency shocks. After regulatory solvency declines, banks increase their exposure to domestic bonds, including higher yielding but zero risk-weight sovereign bonds. The increase in banking system risk might therefore be even larger than the decline in risk-weighted solvency ratios suggests. Distress in the banking system also feeds back onto bond prices. Bonds owned by less-well capitalized banking systems trade at a discount relative to otherwise similar bonds owned by better capitalized intermediaries.

Domestic Sovereign Bond Market: Dynamics and Trends

This article studies the domestic bond market of Ukraine in 2016–2018. Domestic sovereign bonds make a major part of the public and publicly guaranteed debt of Ukraine and represent more than one third of the sovereign liabilities by the end of 2018. It makes it necessary to create a detailed and comprehensive study of this segment of economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sovereign domestic bond market in Ukraine, including both primary and secondary market. Research methods such as induction, deduction, bottom-up approach, synthesis, systematization, and statistical analysis are applied. The state of secondary bond market in Ukraine is determined. A poor devolvement level of secondary bond market can be explained by several factors. First, it is a relatively low volume of deals on the market, in comparison to primary market. Second, non-reliable information on secondary bond market operations, as some of them have negative or extremely high yield, presumably as a result of fraud and corruption schemes. Also, bond auctions issued by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on primary market have been analyzed. The data on primary bond market were structured by type of bonds, duration, and currency of loan. The weighted average of yield and term to maturity were calculated, according to the corresponding classification. Some assumptions about the causes of dynamics and trends in the primary bond market are made. As a result of the statistical analysis, conclusions about the reasons for the yield increase on domestic bonds in 2018 are made. Further research can be focused on expanding of the data analysis periods, including both preliminary and subsequent periods, to obtain extra confirmation of the assumptions that were made and to discover new patterns. Results of this paper can be applied for the development and improvement of fiscal policy to ensure the debt state security.Article received 25.04.2019

The Use of Debt by Sovereign Wealth Fund

In this paper we document the use of debt capital by Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). According to our estimates, as of 2014 there are 10 levered SWFs with outstanding debt around USD 180 billion. We identify three main reasons why SWFs may decide to resort to debt capital, namely: i) increasing their size and diversify their sources of funding; ii) contributing to the development of their domestic bond market, and; iii) optimizing their cost of financing at the group level. Characteristics of levered SWFs -- as opposite to funds restrained from using debt -- are consistent with these goals. The use of debt is less common among SWFs from democratic countries, where it can entail higher political risk. Finally, we address the credit risk of levered SWFs and its relationship with the credit risk of their countries’ governments.

A Sisters’ World: Reasons of the South and Domestic Whispers in Grace King’s Memories of a Southern Woman of Letters

Grace King documented the American Civil War from the Southern perspective of the losers, in times in which the Northern press urged her to embrace the winners’ ideology. As she witnessed the decline of the French colonial project in post-bellum Louisiana, her writing task was to preserve the Frenchified vernacular and the exquisite Creole traditions from oblivion. Her tales and memoirs from New Orleans’ history convey the tenacity of former mistresses and colored servants in mutual defense of their refined domestic order and family bonds disrupted by the brotherly fight.

A Study on the Determinants of Foreign Investors' Domestic Bond Investment

A Study on the Determinants of Foreign Investors' Domestic Bond Investment

Policy shocks, current account and the macroeconomy in a developing country

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

External commercial borrowings by the corporate sector in India

The growing levels of external commercial borrowings (ECBs) among the emerging and developing economies have raised the fears that ECBs would lead to widespread crisis and threaten financial stability in India. Against this backdrop, the current study seeks to examine the trends and critically evaluate the policy pertaining to ECBs. In order to immune the economy from potential exchange rate shocks, we suggest to having specific policy focus on the domestic bond market, hedging mechanisms, and appropriate decisions on the cap and level of ECBs by the regulator.

Between Bank Loans and Eurobonds Issuing: Which One Is Better for Capital Raising?

All companies, governments, states and organisations need to raise additional finance for different purposes. There are several different methods, such as bank loans, bonds, notes, structured products or new equity, available to obtain the required amount of money. The set of financial sources used by a corporate entity is called the company´s capital structure. Commonly, a company uses a number of different sources to safeguard access to sufficient amount of capital. Two of the most important sources are loan financing and bond financing. As observed above, bond financing is an important source of long-term funding for corporate entities. Simply, it is a way of borrowing money that later needs to be repaid, often with interest. In many respects, the issuance of bonds has a lot in common with borrowing from a bank. At the same time, it has its own characteristics. Bonds are issued to secure access to a sufficient amount of capital. There are many different types of bonds. Domestic bonds are bond issued in the home currency of the issuer while Eurobonds are international bonds issued in another currency than the local currency of the issuer and not native to the country of issuance.

Determinants of Public–Private Partnerships in Infrastructure in Asia: Implications for Capital Market Development

This study attempts to understand the role of greater access to finance, i.e., stocks, bonds, and bank loans, in public–private partnership (PPP) investment in developing countries. Most developing countries still depend heavily on fiscal financing for infrastructure projects. The empirical results reconfirm the fact that banks remain the major source of finance for infrastructure projects. The domestic bond market should be further developed to have depth and liquidity enough to provide longterm funding for private sector investors. Interestingly, it finds a negative impact of bond market development on PPP investment. A possible interpretation is that financing through government bonds, which dominates bond markets in developing countries, discourages private sector participation by reducing financing access to the corporate bond market. The evidence underlines the importance of a well-functioning corporate bond market in developing countries, which can offer long-term financing to private sector participation in infrastructure investments.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ПРОЦЕСУ ІНТЕРНАЦІОНАЛІЗАЦІЇ ЮАНЯ НА РИНКАХ БОРГОВИХ ФІНАНСОВИХ ІНСТРУМЕНТІВ

The article addresses the crucial aspects of rising need for actual onshore funding in RMB through panda bonds or other potential options, such as direct loans from local banks or fully funded swaps in RMB. Also, the alternative of well-known dim-sum Actual problems of international relations. Release 139. 2019 108 market of Hong Kong should be carefully considered. The features of onshore and offshore funding for multinational companies are examined. Many international corporates, financials and multilateral institutions already have Asian currencies embedded in their issuance programs. A lot of them have significant economic ties to China. The outstanding volume of China’s bond market has surpassed RMB 70,4 trillion (approximately USD 10,6 trillion) in the August 2017, making in the third largest in the world. Significant changes in the structure of such issues are the subject of analysis carried out. Theoretically substantiated the role and place of RMB in the development of China’s bond market. With the inclusion of RMB into the SDR basket and ongoing market-based reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, China’s bond market will continue to attract interest from foreign issuers. The conclusion of the author : internationalization of yuan reflects the efforts to make the domestic bond market more accessible and attractive to foreign issuers and investors, meanwhile boosted by continuous progress on the pilot program of panda bonds, an expanding pool of practical knowledge, and more sophisticated systems and rules, the panda bond market is expected to achieve more progress in the competition with Hong Kong for offshore RMB funding through traditional dim-sum market.

Corporate Borrowings: Strengthening of the Role of a Bank Loan

In 2018, bank lending to corporate customers is gradually gaining momentum mainly by means of rouble loans to non-financial institutions. Domestic bond market dynamics slowed down dramatically due to reduction of new borrowings by the Rosneft oil company. In 2018, the share of bond loans on the domestic market is diminishing.

What does unconventional monetary policy do to stock markets in the euro area?

AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of the European Central Bank's unconventional monetary surprises on major European stock markets. Three measures for surprises are used: (a) the change in domestic 10‐year government bond yields, (b) the change in the spread between German and Italian (Spanish) 10‐year bond yields, and (c) the change in yields of a safe euro‐denominated asset, such as German bonds. I show that unconventional monetary policy surprises significantly influence stock returns. For instance, monetary decisions that cause a decrease in Italian (Spanish) sovereign spread led to an increase in the stock returns. In addition, I find that a positively surprising shock—a fall in the domestic bond yield and an increase in German interest rates—leads to higher stock returns. Finally, sovereign spreads seemed to have larger effects on stock returns both during crisis and postcrisis years.

Exchange Rate Dynamics, Endogenous Risk Premium and the Balance Sheet Effect: An Effective Demand Model

This article describes a macroeconomic framework for analysing the interaction between output, domestic interest rate and exchange rate in the presence of the endogenous risk premium and balance sheet effect of exchange rate depreciation on investment demand. Output is demand determined. There are three assets: money, domestic bonds and foreign bonds. Domestic bonds and foreign bonds are not perfect substitutes due to the presence of risk premium. The endogenous risk premium depends on certain macroeconomic fundamentals, namely budget deficit and current account balance. Using this framework, we will examine implications of monetary policy, fiscal policy, tariff liberalization and global interest rate hike for exchange rate dynamics and output. The balance sheet effect and the risk premium together explain how an expansionary fiscal policy may generate recession, while tariff liberalization may produce favourable macroeconomic outcomes. Moreover, the model shows that an increase in world interest rate may have contractionary effect on the domestic output level due to the presence of the balance sheet effect of exchange rate depreciation. JEL Classification: E27, E63, F13, F32

Financial structure and the development of domestic bond markets in emerging economies

AbstractIn the period from the 1990s emerging market financial crises until the North Atlantic financial crisis of 2008, the development of domestic bond markets in developing economies was a prominent agenda item in international financial reform circles. The crises of the 1990s drew attention to the vulnerabilities generated by frequently occurring double mismatches of currency denominations and maturities in the borrowing of emerging economies. This led to a series of reform efforts targeted at both increasing liquidity and the range of borrowers in domestic bond markets. In the aggregate, these efforts were successful: For emerging market economies as a whole, domestic debt now exceeds international debt. Moreover, domestic corporate bond markets have emerged in many countries, often for the first time. However, the nature of market development has been far from uniform, and often has not been in line with government aims. In this paper, we examine the interplay of government and business actors in market development. Drawing on 155 interviews with policy and market actors as well as secondary data, we show that the main explanation of variation in market development lies in the pre-existing structure of financial markets, conceptualized as a heterogeneous set of interest/influence constellations.

Foreign-law bonds: Can they reduce sovereign borrowing costs?

Governments often issue bonds in foreign jurisdictions, which can provide additional legal protection vis-à-vis domestic bonds. This paper studies the effect of this jurisdiction choice on bond prices. We test whether foreign-law bonds trade at a premium compared to domestic-law bonds. We use the euro area 2006–2013 as a unique testing ground, controlling for currency risk, liquidity risk, and term structure. Foreign-law bonds indeed carry significantly lower yields in distress periods, and this effect rises as the risk of a sovereign default increases. These results indicate that, in times of crisis, governments can borrow at lower rates under foreign law.

Bankss Home-Bias in Government Bonds Holdings: Will the Supply of ESBies Create Its Own Demand?

The bank literature has documented theoretical and empirical evidence of a “diabolic loop” in the sovereign-bank nexus. Banks have a concentrated risk exposure in domestic government bonds. In the European banking union, this has led to a proposal to create European safe bonds, ESBies, which would facilitate geographical sovereign diversification, hence contributing to bank stability. But will a supply of ESBies create its own demand? The paper offers two new explanations for the home bias in banks’ government bond holdings: a sovereign-based rating cap on banks and the existence of a ‘bank tax’. These are complementary to the three explanations mentioned in the literature: risk shifting, a gamble for resurrection and moral suasion. Collectively, they cast doubt on a demand-led approach to developing a market for safe sovereign-bond backed securities.

Corporate debt maturity in developing countries: Sources of long and short‐termism

AbstractThis paper documents to what extent firms from developing countries borrow short versus long term, using data on corporate bond and syndicated loan markets. Contrary to claims in the literature based on firm balance sheets, firms from developing countries borrow through bonds and syndicated loans at maturities similar to those obtained by developed country firms. There are relevant differences across the debt markets composing this aggregate pattern. Firms from developing countries borrow shorter term in domestic bond markets. But the differences in international issuances (accounting for most of the proceeds) are significantly smaller. Moreover, developing country firms borrow longer term in syndicated loan markets. However, only large firms from developing countries (similar in size to those from developed ones) issue bonds and syndicated loans. The short‐termism in developing countries is partly explained by a lower proportion of firms using these markets, with more firms relying on other shorter‐term instruments.