To solve the problem of the low recovery rate of critical loads in the capacity efficiency margin calculation model of the distribution substation area, a data-driven capacity efficiency margin calculation model for the distribution substation area is designed by identifying the data characteristics of customer-side resources in the distribution substation area, approximating the functional relationship between mechanical and electrical energy using segmentation functions, finding the equipment regulation strategies corresponding to historical load sequences from the database, designing a dynamic optimal tide framework using data-driven technology, discovering the shortcomings that limit the performance of network carrying capacity, and constructing a capacity efficiency margin calculation model. Test results: Under three different simulation scenarios, the average values of key load recovery rates of the distribution substation capacity efficiency margin calculation model and the other two models are 64.946%, 56.223%, and 55.024% respectively, indicating that the designed distribution substation capacity efficiency margin calculation model is more effective when fully combined with data-driven technology.