PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 长三角城市群碳排放与城市用地增长及形态的关系 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201707101242 作者: 作者单位: 浙江大学公共管理学院土地科学与不动产研究所,浙江大学公共管理学院土地科学与不动产研究所,浙江大学公共管理学院土地科学与不动产研究所,浙江大学公共管理学院土地科学与不动产研究所,浙江大学环境与资源学院农业遥感与信息技术应用研究所 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771244);国家留学基金(201706320200);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助;浙江大学文科教师教学科研发展专项项目 Relationships between carbon emission, urban growth, and urban forms of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta Author: Affiliation: Institute of Land Science and Property, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University,,Institute of Land Science and Property, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University,, Fund Project: National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41771244); China Scholarship Council (Grant No.201706320200); supported by “the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities”; supported by “the Teaching and Research Development Funds for Humanities and Social Sciences of Zhejiang University” 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:城市是一种重要的碳源,城市扩张过程中的用地面积增长和空间特征变化均会影响城市碳排放。分析1995-2015年长三角城市群碳排放重心转移,查明碳排放和城市用地增长的脱钩状态时空变化,并通过构建面板数据模型探究城市形态对碳排放的影响,得出以下结论:(1)1995-2015年长三角城市群碳排放重心经历了西南向-西北向-东南向-西北向的转移过程,这种转移过程与其相应时期内部分城市的工业发展与产业结构调整有关;(2)1995-2015年,长三角城市群碳排放与城市用地增长的脱钩状态存在着显著的时空异质性。研究区由以扩张负脱钩为主变化为以弱脱钩为主,2005年以后,区域之间的脱钩差异开始缩小,总体来看研究区脱钩状态趋向于同质。至2015年,近70%的城市已达到了脱钩,其中上海等城市实现了强脱钩;(3)连续完整的地块在区域内的主导程度会对城市碳排放产生负向的影响,而城市用地斑块的破碎化程度和聚集程度对碳排放有着正向的影响,且相对而言,聚集程度的正向影响更为显著。 Abstract:Cities are one of many carbon sources. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributed about 78% to the total Green House Gas (GHG) emission increase between 1970-2010. Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased by about 10GtCO2-eq between 2000-2010. The increase directly came from energy (47%), industry (30%), transport (11%), and building (3%) sectors, which mainly exist in cities. Urban expansion and urbanization can affect urban carbon emission. Studies show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions. The relationships between urban carbon emissions and indicators, including urban development intensity, urban land use, and the industrial sector, are studied extensively. During urban expansion, the quantitative and spatial features of urban lands can both affect carbon emissions. Therefore, urban form was added to the possible factors influencing carbon emissions in this study, which may be different from previous research that has focused on the relationship between urban growth and carbon emissions. However, in some related research, when urban form has been added to the indicators, the objects were residents or the transport sector, and they lacked quantitative indicators to verify the conclusions. The definition of "urban form" in this study was landscape pattern which was characterized by landscape metrics, and the study area consisted of 13 cities in the Yangtze River Delta. In this study, we analysed the shift of the gravity center from 1995-2015 for carbon emissions of the study area, and defined the decoupling index as well as analysing the temporal-spatial changes of the decoupling relationships between carbon emissions and urban growth in the study area. We also built panel data models to estimate the impact of urban forms on carbon emissions. Based on that, the conclusions are as follows:(1) The shift of the gravity center from 1995-2015 for carbon emissions of the study area was southwest-northwest-southeast-northwest. The shift may be related to the development of industry and change of industrial structure in some cities during this period. (2) There was a significant temporal-spatial heterogeneity in the decoupling relationships between carbon emissions and urban growth from 1995-2015. The leading decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and urban growth of the study area changed from expansive negative decoupling to weak decoupling from 1995-2015. The difference of decoupling relationships between cities narrowed after 2005 and the overall decoupling relationship of the study area became homogeneous. In 2015, almost 70% of cities reached the decoupling state and the decoupling states of Shanghai, Shaoxing, and Taizhou were strong. (3) Urban carbon emissions can be negatively influenced by the dominance of complete patches, and positively influenced by the degree of fragmentation and aggregation of urban patches. Carbon emissions can be more sensitive to the more aggregative distribution of the urban patches. This study analysed the relationship between carbon emissions and urban growth, as well as exploring how urban form can affect carbon emissions. The conclusions could provide scientific references for the policy making of low-carbon development strategies and land use and urban planning of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献