news and update ISSN 1948-6596 thesis abstract Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of fresh- water fishes in French streams and uncertainty of projections Laetitia Buisson PhD, Laboratoire Evolution et Diversite Biologique, Universite Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, and La- boratoire d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle, ENSAT, Castanet-Tolosan, France Current address: Laboratoire Evolution et Diversite Biologique, Universite Paul Sabatier, Tou- louse, France; E-mail: buisson@cict.fr; http://www.edb.ups-tlse.fr/ Climate change and its impact on biodiversity are receiving increasing attention from scientists and people managing natural ecosystems. Recent modifications of climate have induced diverse functional (e.g. phenology, physiology) and struc- tural (e.g. species distribution shifts, range con- traction, local extinctions) responses among or- ganisms (Walther et al. 2002). Given the projec- tions of future climate change, these responses are expected to continue throughout the 21st century and climate change could thus have major consequences on species and assemblages. A common approach to project the potential im- pacts of environmental changes on the distribu- tion of biodiversity is the use of species distribu- tion models (SDM) (e.g. Thuiller 2003). These cor- relative models first relate the present-day spe- cies distribution to a set of climate and other envi- ronmental descriptors. Then, the application of scenarios of future climate changes provides pre- dictions of the habitats potentially suitable in the future for the species. In spite of their widespread use, a growing concern has emerged for the vari- ability in the predicted impacts by such models due to the methodological decisions taken during the modeling process (Thuiller 2004). Improve- ments in the accuracy of predictions combined with an estimation of the uncertainty inherent to those predictions are thus urgently needed. Among freshwater ecosystems, stream fish have no physiological ability to regulate their body temperature and could therefore be very sensitive to climate warming, especially cold-stenotherm fish such as salmonid species. Stream fish also have to cope with hydrological variability of streams and strong anthropogenic pressures (e.g. habitat loss, stream fragmentation). In addition, they have limited dispersal ability within hydro- graphic networks in which they currently live. Yet their response to current and future climate change has been poorly documented and few studies have used SDM to assess the potential consequences of the on-going climate change on freshwater fish species distribution, especially in European streams. In that context, the aim of my PhD thesis was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on fish in French streams, mainly on spe- cies distribution and assemblages’ structure. I used fish data provided by the Office National de l’Eau et des Milieux Aquatiques (ONEMA), the in- stitution in charge of the protection and conserva- tion of freshwater ecosystems in France. These data were combined with climate and environ- mental descriptors through the use of correlative statistical modeling. As my goal was to provide reliable estimates of the future impacts of climate change on stream fish, I have considered recent criticisms (e.g. choice of statistical method, pure bioclimatic models) of species distribution models by justifying each step and optimizing the use of such models. In all, five papers are derived from my PhD work. The first three papers set the bases for the building of the models by considering the uncertainty in predictions, while the latest two assess the impacts of climate change on stream fish species and assemblages. In stream fish ecology, many studies have been conducted to identify the environmental drivers structuring fish assemblages (reviewed in Matthews 1998). It appears that fish species distri- bution and structure of fish assemblages are de- termined by a complex interplay of biotic, abiotic and spatial factors (Jackson et al. 2001). Disentan- © 2009 the authors; journal compilation © 2009 The International Biogeography Society — frontiers of biogeography 1.2, 2009
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