Ice Distribution Research Articles

Does prognostic seeding along flight tracks produce the desired effects of cirrus cloud thinning?

Abstract. To date the climate intervention (CI) proposal of cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) was only assessed in general circulation models (GCMs) using a globally uniform distribution of artificial ice nucleating particles (INPs). In this study, we made the first attempt using the ECHAM–HAM (Hamburg Aerosol Module) GCM to simulate CCT using a fully prognostic cirrus seeding aerosol species. Seeding particles were assumed to be made of bismuth triiodide and were emitted into the atmosphere following aircraft emissions of black carbon (soot). This new approach drastically reduced the number concentration of seeding particles available as INPs in our cirrus ice nucleation sub-model compared to the globally uniform approach. As a result, we found that in order to achieve a significant signal we needed to reduce the assumed radius of emitted seeding particles by an order of magnitude to 0.01 µm and scale the mass emissions of seeding particles by at least a factor of 100 or 1000. This latter scaling factor led to a large net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming effect of 5.9 W m−2. This warming effect was a clear response to overseeding with a large concentration of seeding particles (>105 L−1 in the Northern Hemisphere) that was most evident in the tropics. Due to this undesired effect, in a second series of simulations we avoided seeding the tropics by restricting emissions to only the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during winter. We also found a small and insignificant effect, or overseeding, which for the extreme case was reduced compared to the global aircraft emission scenario (2.2 W m−2). Ice crystal radius anomalies were not what we expected, with the largest reduction in size found for the case with a mass scaling factor of 10 instead of the extreme, ×1000, scenario. We attributed this peculiar behavior to the differences in the competition between different seeding particle concentrations and background particles. Finally, we also found that seeding with such large concentrations increased the albedo effect of mixed-phase clouds in the NH due to less efficient cloud droplet consumption, consistent with previous findings from our model. Overall, however, based on this study it is recommended to pause further modeling efforts of CCT unless more observational-based evidence of aerosol–ice-cloud interactions indicates favorable conditions for producing the desired outcome of this CI proposal.

Water Ice Sublimation Distribution on the Surface of Short Period Comet

Comets are the primitive planetesimals left in the solar system. Studying the evolution of comet nucleus is of great significance for understanding the formation and evolution history of other celestial bodies in the solar system. Under the action of solar radiation, the volatile components of comets sublimate and drive the dust movement, resulting in the loss of comet nucleus material. Therefore, the activity of comet nucleus affects the surface morphology and even the overall shape evolution. The orbit data were obtained from IAU (International Astronomical Union) MPC (Minor Planet Center), and the spin and precession of comet nucleus were taken into account. The shape evolution model of Mass loss-driven shape evolution model (MONET) was used to simulate the short period comet. The distribution of solar radiation energy and surface erosion depth of short-period comet 1P/Halley, 9P/Tempel 1, 19P/Borrelly, 67P/C-G (Churyumov-Gerasimenko), 81P/Wild 2, and 103P/Hartley 2 in one orbital period is calculated. Combined with its dynamic parameters, the effects of rotation, precession, and revolution on the sublimation distribution of surface water ice and the possibility of causing the difference in erosion between north and south are discussed.

Ice Content of Mantling Materials in Deuteronilus Mensae, Mars

AbstractLayers of ice and dust (i.e., “mantle”) are found throughout the mid‐latitudes of Mars, where they drape and mute topography and record the recent climate history. Many of the youngest Late Amazonian “latitude‐dependent mantles” have been characterized, but the full range of mantle characteristics, including variations in ice content and age, has not been well documented. To advance our understanding of these ice‐dust units, we use SHAllow RADar (SHARAD) radar sounding data to constrain the subsurface physical properties of a widespread Middle Amazonian mantle unit within Deuteronilus Mensae. This region hosts a high density of glacial landforms, which allows assessment of the stratigraphic relationship between mantle deposits and glacial ice. SHARAD reflectors at the base of the mantle units are used to determine moderate dielectric constants (∼5.75) and high loss tangents (∼0.038). These radar properties imply relatively limited ice content and high‐loss mantling materials with possible enhanced roughness or subsurface scattering. Further, we interpret deeper reflectors that are continuous with glacier basal reflectors and that suggest materials with lower dielectric constants (∼3.2–4.5) and loss tangents (0.0071–0.0120) to be due to extensions of stagnant, possibly lithic‐rich, glacier ice that are buried by a mantle layer. This study demonstrates the high variability in the origins and evolution of mid‐latitude mantling units on Mars. While the most recent latitude‐dependent mantling deposits may still be ice‐rich, older deposits, such as those preserved in Deuteronilus Mensae and elsewhere in the mid‐latitudes of Mars, may be largely desiccated or contain a more heterogeneous and limited distribution of ice.

Impact of Schroeder's paradox on cold start-up failure of proton exchange membrane fuel cells: Three-dimension simulation based on OpenFOAM

In the cold environment, the increase in mass transfer resistance enhances non-equilibrium thermodynamic phenomena of the membrane water in proton exchange membrane fuel cells, such as Schroeder's paradox, but these phenomena were ignored in the classic model. In this study, the impacts of Schroeder's paradox on cold start-up failure, especially ice distributions at different temperatures, were discussed. The transfer procedure from the equilibrium to non-equilibrium between membrane water and vapor was described. A non-equilibrium boundedness model was developed and was run in OpenFOAM, and this model was compared to equilibrium unboundedness models previously and equilibrium boundedness models. Results show that non-equilibrium characteristics cannot be neglected at −20 °C. If the boundedness is considered, output voltages of the equilibrium assumption (frozen membrane water) decrease faster than the non-equilibrium assumption. Icing deteriorates the reabsorption capacity of the membrane and enhances the non-equilibrium between the membrane and the environment.

Sea Ice Extraction in SAR Images via a Spatially Constrained Gamma Mixture Model

Sea ice plays an important role in climate change research and maritime shipping safety, and SAR imaging technology provides important technical support for sea ice extraction. However, traditional methods have limitations such as low efficiency, model complexity, and excessive human interference. For that, a novel sea ice segmentation algorithm based on a spatially constrained Gamma mixture model (GaMM) is proposed in this paper. The advantage of the proposed algorithm is automatic, efficient, and accurate sea ice extraction. The algorithm first uses GaMM to build the probability distribution of sea ice in SAR images. Considering the similarity in the class attributions of local pixels, the smoothing coefficient is defined by the class attributes of neighboring pixels. Then, the prior distribution of the label is modeled by combining Gibbs distribution and the smoothing coefficient to improve the accuracy of sea ice extraction. The proposed algorithm utilizes the Expectation maximization method to estimate model parameters, and determines the optimal number of classes using Bayesian information criteria, aiming to achieve fast and automatic sea ice extraction. To test the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, numerous experiments were conducted on simulated and real high-resolution SAR images. The results show that the proposed algorithm has high accuracy and efficiency. Moreover, the proposed algorithm can obtain the optimal number of classes and avoid over-segmentation or under-segmentation caused by manually setting the number of classes.

Effects of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea surface temperature and sea ice extent on the isotope–temperature slope at polar ice core sites

Abstract. Stable water isotopes in polar ice cores are widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations over several orbital climatic cycles. One way to calibrate the isotope–temperature relationship is to apply the present-day spatial relationship as a surrogate for the temporal one. However, this method leads to large uncertainties because several factors like the sea surface conditions or the origin and transport of water vapor influence the isotope–temperature temporal slope. In this study, we investigate how the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea ice extent, and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) affect these temporal slopes in Greenland and Antarctica for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) to preindustrial climate change. For that, we use the isotope-enabled atmosphere climate model ECHAM6-wiso, forced with a set of sea surface boundary condition datasets based on reconstructions (e.g., GLOMAP) or MIROC 4m simulation outputs. We found that the isotope–temperature temporal slopes in East Antarctic coastal areas are mainly controlled by the sea ice extent, while the sea surface temperature cooling affects the temporal slope values inland more. On the other hand, ECHAM6-wiso simulates the impact of sea ice extent on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and Vostok sites through the contribution of water vapor from lower latitudes. Effects of sea surface boundary condition changes on modeled isotope–temperature temporal slopes are variable in West Antarctica. This is partly due to the transport of water vapor from the Southern Ocean to this area that can dampen the influence of local temperature on the changes in the isotopic composition of precipitation and snow. In the Greenland area, the isotope–temperature temporal slopes are influenced by the sea surface temperatures near the coasts of the continent. The greater the LGM cooling off the coast of southeastern Greenland, the greater the transport of water vapor from the North Atlantic, and the larger the temporal slopes. The presence or absence of sea ice very near the coast has a large influence in Baffin Bay and the Greenland Sea and influences the slopes at some inland ice core stations. The extent of the sea ice far south slightly influences the temporal slopes in Greenland through the transport of more depleted water vapor from lower latitudes to this area. The seasonal variations of sea ice distribution, especially its retreat in summer, influence the isotopic composition of the water vapor in this region and the modeled isotope–temperature temporal slopes in the eastern part of Greenland. A stronger LGM AMOC decreases LGM-to-preindustrial isotopic anomalies in precipitation in Greenland, degrading the isotopic model–data agreement. The AMOC strength modifies the temporal slopes over inner Greenland slightly and by a little on the coasts along the Greenland Sea where the changes in surface temperature and sea ice distribution due to the AMOC strength mainly occur.

Airborne observations of the surface cloud radiative effect during different seasons over sea ice and open ocean in the Fram Strait

Abstract. This study analyses the cloud radiative effect (CRE) obtained from near-surface observations of three airborne campaigns in the Arctic north-west of Svalbard: Airborne measurements of radiative and turbulent FLUXes of energy and momentum in the Arctic boundary layer (AFLUX, March/April 2019), Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day (ACLOUD, May/June 2017), and Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate – Airborne observations in the Central Arctic (MOSAiC-ACA, August/September 2020). The surface CRE quantifies the potential of clouds to modify the radiative energy budget at the surface and is calculated by combining broadband radiation measurements during low-level flight sections in mostly cloudy conditions with radiative transfer simulations of cloud-free conditions. The significance of surface albedo changes due to the presence of clouds is demonstrated, and this effect is considered in the cloud-free simulations. The observations are discussed with respect to differences of the CRE between sea ice and open-ocean surfaces and between the seasonally different campaigns. The results indicate that the CRE depends on cloud, illumination, surface, and thermodynamic properties. The solar and thermal-infrared (TIR) components of the CRE, CREsol and CRETIR, are analysed separately, as well as combined for the study of the total CRE (CREtot). The inter-campaign differences of CREsol are dominated by the seasonal cycle of the solar zenith angle, with the strongest cooling effect in summer. The lower surface albedo causes a stronger solar cooling effect over open ocean than over sea ice, which amounts to −259 W m−2 (−108 W m−2) and −65 W m−2 (−17 W m−2), respectively, during summer (spring). Independent of campaign and surface type, CRETIR is only weakly variable and shows values around 75 W m−2. In total, clouds show a negative CREtot over open ocean during all campaigns. In contrast, over sea ice, the positive CREtot suggests a warming effect of clouds at the surface, which neutralizes during mid-summer. Given the seasonal cycle of the sea ice distribution, these results imply that clouds in the Fram Strait region cool the surface during the sea ice minimum in late summer, while they warm the surface during the sea ice maximum in spring.

Dynamic modelling and simulation of eutectic freeze crystallization process for recovery of ammonium sulphate from aqueous solutions

The advancement of industrial sectors generates large amount of wastewater containing ammonium sulphate (AS) ions, yet the current AS recovery technologies are energy-extensive and produce excessive sludge. In this study, a dynamic model for a batch crystallizer was developed to investigate the eutectic freeze crystallization process of AS in aqueous solutions using the method of moment (MoM). The variables affecting the crystal size distribution of AS and ice were described in terms of zeroth moment μ0, first moment μ1, second moment μ2 and third moment μ3. The μ0 of ice crystals increased significantly until 2 s and slowed down thereafter while μ0 of AS crystal increased steadily and reached a constant value of 1/m3s after 1 s. The μ1, μ2, and μ3 of the AS and ice crystals depicted a similar increasing trend. Through process optimization using a 3-D plot on the initial concentration of the system and initial temperature of cooling fluid which had been identified as the significant parameters via iterative plot using MATLAB software, the AS and ice reached maximum crystallization at 255 K which was close to the eutectic point of AS-water system at 254 K. The dynamic model which comprised of population, mass and energy balance equations established in this study demonstrated effectiveness in the prediction of crystallization of AS in aqueous solutions.

Freeze concentration of aqueous pyrolysis oil extract and levoglucosan recovery by cooling crystallization

In this work, pyrolysis oil produced by the slow pyrolysis of pinewood was the feed solution for a freeze concentration study and cooling crystallization recovery of levoglucosan. Liquid-liquid extraction of water-soluble compounds was performed by adding water to the original pyrolysis oil with ratios of 1:1 and 1:5 water: pyrolysis oil (wt%), respectively. A two-step suspension freeze concentration was then performed with the 1:1 and 1:5 aqueous pyrolysis oils (AqPO) to concentrate the solutions. The efficiency of water removal from AqPO was assessed by measuring the ice yield and distribution coefficient of ice impurities. Levoglucosan recovery from a supersaturated 1:1 AqPO-water mixture was performed for 37.5 min and 60 min by cooling crystallization with an aging time of 60 min. The average recovery rate of levoglucosan was 24 wt% with mean levoglucosan crystal size of 831 μm.

Annual evolution of the ice–ocean interaction beneath landfast ice in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

Abstract. High-frequency observations of the ice–ocean interaction and high-precision estimation of the ice–ocean heat exchange are critical to understanding the thermodynamics of the landfast ice mass balance in Antarctica. To investigate the oceanic contribution to the evolution of the landfast ice, an integrated ocean observation system, including an acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV), conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) sensors, and a sea ice mass balance array (SIMBA), was deployed on the landfast ice near the Chinese Zhongshan Station in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica, from April to November 2021. The CTD sensors recorded the ocean temperature and salinity. The ocean temperature experienced a rapid increase in late April, from −1.62 to the maximum of −1.30 ∘C, and then it gradually decreased to −1.75 ∘C in May and remained at this temperature until November. The seawater salinity and density exhibited similar increasing trends during April and May, with mean rates of 0.04 psu d−1 and 0.03 kg m−3 d−1, respectively, which was related to the strong salt rejection caused by freezing of the landfast ice. The ocean current observed by the ADV had mean horizontal and vertical velocities of 9.5 ± 3.9 and 0.2 ± 0.8 cm s−1, respectively. The domain current direction was ESE (120∘)–WSW (240∘), and the domain velocity (79 %) was 5–15 cm s−1. The oceanic heat flux (Fw) estimated using the residual method reached a peak of 41.3 ± 9.8 W m−2 in April, and then it gradually decreased to a stable level of 7.8 ± 2.9 W m−2 from June to October. The Fw values calculated using three different bulk parameterizations exhibited similar trends with different magnitudes due to the uncertainties of the empirical friction velocity. The spectral analysis results suggest that all of the observed ocean variables exhibited a typical half-day period, indicating the strong diurnal influence of the local tidal oscillations. The large-scale sea ice distribution and ocean circulation contributed to the seasonal variations in the ocean variables, revealing the important relationship between the large-scale and local phenomena. The high-frequency and cross-seasonal observations of oceanic variables obtained in this study allow us to deeply investigate their diurnal and seasonal variations and to evaluate their influences on the landfast ice evolution.

In-situ identification of ice accumulation profile and vibration response at composite blades under various icing conditions

Icing challenges the safety and performance of wind turbines in low temperature environments. Detailed information on the amount and location of ice on rotor blades can facilitate decision making and mitigate hazardous effects. Therefore, a better understanding of the relation between ice accumulation and frequency response is required. Small scale experiments are conducted employing rotor blade specimens, experiencing natural icing of different configuration in terms of temperature and ice extent. The ice distribution is measured with a high-resolution laser scanner, and an algorithm based on alpha shapes is developed to determine the growth of the ice volume. Experimental modal analyses are performed periodically during the icing process, detecting consequent effects in the corresponding frequency spectra. The collected data is assessed regarding its suitability for an ice detection system and serves as a starting point for further developments.

Investigating the Stability and Distribution of Surface Ice in Mercury’s Northernmost Craters

Observations made by Earth-based radar telescopes and the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft provided compelling evidence for water ice in Mercury's polar craters. In our investigation, we constructed higher-resolution (125 m pixel−1) digital elevation models (DEMs) for four of the largest northernmost craters, Kandinsky, Tolkien, Chesterton, and Tryggvadóttir. The DEMs were leveraged to model solar illumination and the thermal environment, products that were used to identify permanently shadowed regions and simulate surface temperatures. From these models, we predicted the regions of surface stability for ice and volatile organic compounds. These predictions were then compared against the Arecibo radar, Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA), and Mercury Dual Imaging System (MDIS) data. Our radar analysis shows that areas of high radar backscatter are correlated with areas predicted to host surface ice. Additionally, we identify radar backscatter heterogeneities within the deposits that could be associated with variations in ice purity, mantling of the ice, or ice abundances. The MDIS analysis did not reveal conclusive evidence for ice or volatiles at the surface, while MLA results support the presence of water ice at the surface in these craters. However, evidence for boundaries between the surface ice and low-reflectance volatile organic compounds, as suggested could be present by our models, was inconclusive owing to the limited MESSENGER data in these regions. BepiColombo’s upcoming orbital mission at Mercury has the opportunity to obtain new measurements of these high-latitude craters and test our predictions for the distribution of surface volatiles in these environments.

Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract. In the last decades, great effort has been made to reconstruct the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ca. 21 000 years before present, 21 kyr ago). Uncertainties underlying its modelling have led to notable differences in fundamental features such as its maximum elevation, extent and total volume. As a result, the uncertainty in ice dynamics and thus in ice extent, volume and ice stream stability remains large. We herein use a higher-order three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate the LIS under LGM boundary conditions for a number of basal friction formulations of varying complexity. Their consequences for the Laurentide ice streams, configuration, extent and volume are explicitly quantified. Total volume and ice extent generally reach a constant equilibrium value that falls close to prior LIS reconstructions. Simulations exhibit high sensitivity to the dependency of the basal shear stress on the sliding velocity. In particular, a regularised Coulomb friction formulation appears to be the best choice in terms of ice volume and ice stream realism. Pronounced differences are found when the basal friction stress is thermomechanically coupled: the base remains colder, and the LIS volume is lower than in the purely mechanical friction scenario counterpart. Thermomechanical coupling is fundamental for producing rapid ice streaming, yet it leads to a similar ice distribution overall.

Deep learning-driven end-to-end segmentation of Martian river valleys

Martian river valleys are inextricably linked to Martian researches, including the development of the Martian climate, geological development and shallow water ice distribution. The segmentation of Martian river valleys provides materials for scientific research. Due to the absence of water, however, the features of Martian rivers are not obvious, resulting in inefficient segmentation. In order to realize high-accuracy segmentation, we propose an end-to-end segmentation method of Martian river valleys based on deep learning. We put forward the MDR (multi-scale double residual) convolution module and the TA (triple attention) module to improve Unet, and thus, MDR-Unet-TA. In this network, we replace two 3 × 3 convolution layers in Unet with an MDR convolution module, which uses multi-scale convolution to extract features of multiple sizes, and uses the residual connection to avoid gradient disappearance. In addition, we introduce a TA module into the skip connection, which reduces the feature map difference between the encoder and the decoder, and obtains detailed information during decoding. Experimental results demonstrate that compared with current semantic segmentation networks, MDR-Unet-TA obtains higher accuracy, F1 and IOU scores of 98.78%, 95.77% and 95.12% on the simple test set and 97.50%, 95.12% and 93.50% on the complex test set, respectively. Compared with MultiRes Unet, the improvement by MDR-Unet-Tri1 in accuracy, F1, and IOU is 0.92%, 2.40% and 2.70% respectively on the simple test set, and 1.98%, 1.84% and 3.58% respectively on the complex test set. MDR-Unet-TA improves the segmentation performance significantly compared with the original network, and realizes the end-to-end segmentation of Martian river valleys.

Facilitation of metastable ice Ⅰ - ice III phase transition of liquid foods at high-pressure sub-zero temperature by perturbation

In this study, the distribution of ice Ⅰ - ice III phase transition positions and its influencing factors on various fruit juices and food model solutions under high pressure (HP) were investigated. In addition, the effect of perturbation on induction of phase change in metastable apple juice was also explored. The phase transition positions of fruit juice samples deviated far from the theoretical value (210 MPa/ –21 °C), with pressure in range of 268 ∼ 305 MPa and temperature between –31.09 °C and –37.21 °C, with the most extreme phase transition position of 305 MPa/ –37.21 °C for apple juice. The phase change position was affected by the type of solution but not by the concentration of solutions. The cooling media namely, sodium chloride (5%, 20%) and glucose solution (5%, 20%) were used as perturbation sources to stimulate the metastable apple juice by using instantaneous volume reduction during the ice Ⅰ - ice III phase transition. They successfully promoted the phase transition of apple juice, where 20% sodium chloride solution significantly (p < 0.05) reduced the phase change pressure of apple juice to 239 MPa. The perturbation effect was influenced by the type and concentration of the perturbation source, the composition of the cavity area and the softness of the sample container.

Wind tunnel test of ice accretion on blade airfoil for wind turbine under offshore atmospheric condition

For wind turbines under offshore conditions, ice accretion occurs on the blade surface in winter because of the cold and humid environment, which leads to the performance degradation of the wind turbine. The characteristics of icing on the wind turbine blade surface under the in-cloud condition with salinity are explored. A blade segment with an airfoil of NACA0018 is selected. The tests of icing on the blade surface in different conditions of salinities, temperatures, and wind speeds are conducted in a return-flow icing wind tunnel. Two parameters are defined to evaluate icing characteristics. The distribution and amount of ice are analyzed quantitatively. Results show that salinity can restrain the amount of ice accretion. Oppositely, low temperatures and high wind speeds can increase the amount of ice. A self-developed device was manufactured to measure the adhesion strength of ice. The effects of salinity, temperature, and wind speed on adhesion strength are studied. Research indicates that adhesion strength decreases sharply first and then slowly with an increase in salinity. Even though low temperature and high wind speed both increase the adhesion strength, the growth rate decreases. The research provides a reference for anti- and de-icing technologies of offshore wind turbines.

Projected Changes to Wintertime Air‐Sea Turbulent Heat Fluxes Over the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean

AbstractIn wintertime over the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA), the strongest surface sensible and latent heat fluxes typically occur just downstream of the sea‐ice edge. The recent retreat in Arctic wintertime sea ice is changing the distribution of these turbulent heat fluxes, with consequences for the formation of the dense waters that feed into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Projections of turbulent heat flux over the SPNA are investigated using output from the HadGEM3‐GC3.1 climate model, produced as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Inter‐Comparison Project. Comparison of two model resolutions (MM: 60 km atmosphere—1/4° ocean and HH: 25 km–1/12°) shows that the HH configuration more accurately simulates historic sea ice and turbulent heat flux distributions. The MM configuration tends to produce too much sea ice in the SPNA, affecting the turbulent heat flux distribution; however, it displays improved performance during winters with less sea ice, increasing confidence in future projections when less sea ice is predicted. Future projections are presented for low (SSP1‐2.6) and high (SSP5‐8.5) emissions pathways. The simulations agree in predicting that, with climate change, the SPNA will see reductions in wintertime sea ice and air‐sea turbulent fluxes later in the 21st century, particularly in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and the interior of the Nordic Seas, and a notable reduction in their decadal variability. These effects are more severe under the SSP5‐8.5 pathway. The implications for SPNA ocean circulation are discussed.

Peculiarities of joint influence of navigation intensification and climate change on fast ice distribution in the Ob’ Bay

All year–round navigation in the Ob’Bay has been operating for more than ten years. In recent years it has been performed most actively at three points: the port terminals Sabetta and «Utrenniy» (on the opposite coasts in the northern part of the bay) and the oil loading terminal «Vorota Arktiki» (in the southern part of the bay, off cape Kamenny). Regular winter navigation to Sabetta began in 2013 and to cape Kamenny in 2015. In recent years, the number of vessels in November–May has already risen to about 380 per season. The winter navigation in the fast ice is performed along ice channels, which should impact on the fast ice stability. The aim of this research was to determine the influence of navigation on the fast ice distribution in the Ob’Bay in terms of climate changes. To analyze navigation impact on the fast ice distribution in the Ob’Bay, data on air temperature, ice conditions and number of vessels in the winter period were used in the work. The sum of the freezing degree days (FDD) was chosen as a parameter of winter conditions severity. The mean location of the south boundary of the flaw polynya per season was a parameter of the fast ice stability. Such an approach reduced the influence of short–term fluctuations of temperature and ice conditions. The data analysis carried out over the last 25 years has confirmed a significant influence of navigation on the fast ice distribution. It has been found that for the range from mean to mild winter conditions (an estimate using FDD), the dislocation of the flaw polynya boundary in the south direction amounted to 0.4–0.8 degrees of latitude (25–50 miles) because of winter navigation intensification. Winter conditions more severe than mean have not been recorded in the region over recent years. Therefore, such estimates were not obtained for them. The discovered changes of ice conditions are significant for the region. The transfer from fast ice to drifting ice of different types, forms and concentration will lead to the corresponding restructuring of other natural processes (water dynamics, litho-dynamic regime, etc). Subsequently the impact of hydrometeorological factors on engineering facilities can change, affecting the navigation conditions, scenarios of loading on the hydraulic structures, absolute loading values, etc. This is a factor to consider in the economic development of the region.

Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS

AbstractThe Unified Forecast System (UFS) is the next generation modeling infrastructure under development for NOAA's operational numerical weather/climate predictions. This study is the first attempt with UFS for seasonal predictions application. In particular, 9‐month hindcasts are performed starting from every month during 2007–2020. The UFS performance in predicting Arctic sea ice was compared to hindcasts by (a) the current operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and (b) an experimental sea ice prediction system (CFSm5) at NOAA. Evaluations indicate that UFS demonstrates consistently improved skills than both CFSv2 and CFSm5 in seasonal sea ice predictions, together with more realistic climatological sea ice distributions. Diagnostics suggest that the better climatological sea ice distributions in UFS is related to its atmospheric states simulated with FV3, the atmospheric component of UFS, and reinforced by associated ocean circulations. In addition, applications of the multi‐model ensemble strategy do not present skill improvements over the UFS forecasts alone.

Patterns and rates of soil movement and shallow failures across several small watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Abstract. Thawing permafrost can alter topography, ecosystems, and sediment and carbon fluxes, but predicting landscape evolution of permafrost-influenced watersheds in response to warming and/or hydrological changes remains an unsolved challenge. Sediment flux and slope instability in sloping saturated soils have been commonly predicted from topographic metrics (e.g., slope, drainage area). In addition to topographic factors, cohesion imparted by soil and vegetation and melting ground ice may also control spatial trends in slope stability, but the distribution of ground ice is poorly constrained and hard to predict. To address whether slope stability and surface displacements follow topographic-based predictions, we document recent drivers of permafrost sediment flux present on a landscape in western Alaska that include creep, solifluction, gullying, and catastrophic hillslope failures ranging in size from a few meters to tens of meters, and we find evidence of rapid and substantial landscape change on an annual timescale. We quantify the timing and rate of surface movements using a multi-pronged, multi-scalar dataset including aerial surveys, interannual GPS surveys, synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), and climate data. Despite clear visual evidence of downslope soil transport of solifluction lobes, we find that the interannual downslope surface displacement of these features does not outpace downslope displacement of soil in locations where lobes are absent (downslope movement means: 7 cm yr−1 for lobes over 2 years vs. 10 cm yr−1 in landscape positions without lobes over 1 year). Annual displacements do not appear related to slope, drainage area, or modeled total solar radiation but are likely related to soil thickness, and volumetric sediment fluxes are high compared to temperate landscapes of comparable bedrock lithology. Time series of InSAR displacements show accelerated movement in late summer, associated with intense rainfall and/or deep thaw. While mapped slope failures do cluster at slope–area thresholds, a simple slope stability model driven with hydraulic conductivities representative of throughflow in mineral and organic soil drastically overpredicts the occurrence of slope failures. This mismatch implies permafrost hillslopes have unaccounted-for cohesion and/or throughflow pathways, perhaps modulated by vegetation, which stabilize slopes against high rainfall. Our results highlight the breadth and complexity of soil transport processes in Arctic landscapes and demonstrate the utility of using a range of synergistic data collection methods to observe multiple scales of landscape change, which can aid in predicting periglacial landscape evolution.