Discrete-time Event History Models Research Articles

Een nieuwe partner na een echtscheiding?: opleidingsverschillen bij mannen en vrouwen in Vlaanderen

This article looks at the likelihood to start a new steady partnership after the disso¬ lution of a first marriage. We hypothesize that the educational level might influence the need for a new partner, the attractiveness on the (re)partner market and the opportunities to meet new partners. Using data of the ‘Divorce in Flanders’-survey, we estimate discrete-time event history models, separately for men and women. For divorcees from 1981 to 2005 (from marriage cohorts since 1971), we find that lower educated men have a lower risk of repartnering than higher educated men. Among women, the likelihood to repartner only depends on their educational level for those separated in the 1990s. For women, their age at the separation, the pres¬ ence of children and the age of the youngest child are crucial determinants. Labour market participation does not affect the repartnering risk, for men nor for women.

The Role of Neighborhood Safety in Recovery from Mobility Limitations: Findings from a National Sample of Older Americans (1996-2008).

Prior research has documented a link between perceived neighborhood safety and functional limitations including incident mobility limitation, yet no research has explored the association between perceived neighborhood safety and recovery from functional limitations. This study investigates whether perceived neighborhood safety independently predicts recovery. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) (1996-2008), discrete-time event history models with multiple competing events were estimated using multinomial logistic regression. Robust standard errors were used to adjust for clustering. In the unadjusted model, the odds ratio for recovery from mobility limitations was 1.22 (CI: 1.17, 1.27) for respondents reporting greater neighborhood safety, while, in the fully adjusted model, the odds ratio was 1.11 (CI: 1.05, 1.17). Even after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and numerous health risk factors, perceived neighborhood safety was a robust predictor of mobility limitation recovery. This research provides further evidence that environmental factors shape functional health outcomes including recovery.

Does Female Employment Always Undermine Marriage? Working Wives and Family Stability in Different Contexts of Italian Society

Previous research has shown that the association between female employment and risk of marital disruption is still far from clear-cut, partly because certain theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that it may vary according to different conditions. The purpose of this study is to reassess the association between female employment and marital stability in Italy, by viewing it as contingent on historical period, institutional and cultural context and wives’ gender ideology. The relative risk of marital disruption is estimated using discrete time event-history models. The empirical findings clearly show that wives’ employment in this country seems to be disruptive for marriages, and its effect remains constant across the different conditions tested in the analysis.

In and out of employment: Effects in panel and life-history data

Abstract Longitudinal data collected through panel studies or life-history surveys represent a rich source for analysing movements in the labour market over the life-course. However, concerns arise over the proper design to collect these data reliably. This paper addresses the substantive issue related to the determinants of movements in the labour market tackling the methodological concerns referring the reliability of different survey designs (prospective versus retrospective) for that purpose. The focus, in particular, is on the extent to which the survey design can affect the results of the analysis of mechanisms underlying labour markets dynamics. Using discrete-time event history models, the effects of factors possibly affecting labour market transitions using prospective and retrospective surveys are estimated and compared (the German Socio-Economic Panel and the German Life-History Study). Overall, few differences are found across surveys. Such differences are mainly in effect sizes and rarely in their directions. The most significant differences are found in the effects of human capital investments. In some cases, familial responsibilities connected with marriage and children also show different effects. However, results confirm that career investments and disinvestments protect from exiting and hinder re-entry, respectively. Familial responsibilities hamper employment participation for women, while increasing it for men. No clear evidence of temporal connections in recalling between work and family spheres are found. The paper contributes to raising the awareness of the pros and cons of different types of surveys collecting longitudinal data.

AGE AND FERTILITY: CAN WOMEN WAIT UNTIL THEIR EARLY THIRTIES TO TRY FOR A FIRST BIRTH?

Postponing the start of childbearing raises the question of fertility postponed versus fertility foregone. One of the limitations of previous studies of 'How late can you wait?' is that any observed decline in the probability of conception with age could be due to a decline in fecundability with age or due to a decline in coital frequency with age or due to both factors. Using data from a multinational longitudinal study conducted to determine the daily probability of conception among healthy subjects, a discrete-time event history model with long-term survivors (sterile population) is used to study the relationship between age and fecundability for childless women, while controlling for the pattern of intercourse within a menstrual cycle. The findings suggest that women can wait until their early thirties to try for a first birth, providing that they are not already sterile, as the magnitude of the decline in fecundability is very modest and of little practical importance.

Using Paradata to Predict Best Times of Contact, Conditioning on Household and Interviewer Influences

SummaryEstablishing contact is an important part of the response process and effective interviewer calling behaviours are critical in achieving contact and subsequent co-operation. The paper investigates best times of contact for different types of households and the influence of the interviewer on establishing contact. Recent developments in the survey data collection process have led to the collection of so-called field process data or paradata, which greatly extend the basic information on interviewer calls. The paper develops a multilevel discrete time event history model based on interviewer call record data to predict the likelihood of contact at each call. The results have implications for survey practice and inform the design of effective interviewer calling times, including responsive survey designs.

The impact of college education on fertility: evidence for heterogeneous effects.

As college-going among women has increased, more women are going to college from backgrounds that previously would have precluded their attendance and completion. This affords us the opportunity and motivation to look at the effects of college on fertility across a range of social backgrounds and levels of early achievement. Despite a substantial literature on the effects of education on women's fertility, researchers have not assessed variation in effects by selection into college. With data on U.S. women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we examine effects of timely college attendance and completion on women's fertility by the propensity to attend and complete college using multilevel Poisson and discrete-time event-history models. Disaggregating the effects of college by propensity score strata, we find that the fertility-decreasing college effect is concentrated among women from comparatively disadvantaged social backgrounds and low levels of early achievement. The effects of college on fertility attenuate as we observe women from backgrounds that are more predictive of college attendance and completion.

Nursing Home Stays and the Pace of Severe Disability Onset

Severe disability is an important predictor of nursing home admissions. The purpose of this study is to examine the role of severe disability pacing on risk of short- and long-term nursing home stays. Respondents who developed severe disability were assigned into one of two pacing trajectories: catastrophic or progressive disability. The author analyzed seven waves of data from the Health and Retirement Study and created a series of discrete-time event history models. The analysis showed that the risk associated with severe disability and nursing home stays varied based on severe disability pacing. Progressive and catastrophic disability were associated with increased risk of short- and long-term stays; however, the risk of nursing home stays was much greater for respondents with catastrophic disability for short- and long-term stays. The findings have implications for policy and research. The author suggests that future research focus on interventions aimed at slowing the pace of severe disability.

Precarious Employment, Bad Jobs, Labor Unions, and Early Retirement

We examined the extent to which involuntary job loss, exposure to "bad jobs," and labor union membership across the life course are associated with the risk of early retirement. Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, a large (N=8,609) sample of men and women who graduated from high school in 1957, we estimated discrete-time event history models for the transition to first retirement through age 65. We estimated models separately for men and women. We found that experience of involuntary job loss and exposure to bad jobs are associated with a lower risk of retiring before age 65, whereas labor union membership is associated with a higher likelihood of early retirement. These relationships are stronger for men than for women and are mediated to some extent by pre-retirement differences in pension eligibility, wealth, job characteristics, and health. Results provide some support for hypotheses derived from theories of cumulative stratification, suggesting that earlier employment experiences should influence retirement outcomes indirectly through later-life characteristics. However, midlife employment experiences remain associated with earlier retirement, net of more temporally proximate correlates, highlighting the need for further theorization and empirical evaluation of the mechanisms through which increasingly common employment experiences influence the age at which older Americans retire.

A cross-national study on Mexico-US migration, substance use and substance use disorders

Background Epidemiologic research has consistently found lower prevalence of alcohol and drug use disorders among Hispanic immigrants to the US than among US-born Hispanics. Recent research has begun to examine how this change occurs in the process of assimilation in the US. We aimed to study immigration, US nativity, and return migration as risk factors for alcohol and drug use among people of Mexican origin in both the US and Mexico. Methods Data come from nationally representative surveys in the United States (2001–2003; n = 1208) and Mexico (2001–2002; n = 5782). We used discrete time event history models to account for time-varying and time-invariant characteristics. Results We found no evidence that current Mexican immigrants in the US have higher risk for alcohol or alcohol use disorders than Mexicans living in Mexico, but current immigrants were at higher risk for drug use and drug use disorders. Current Mexican immigrants were at lower risk for drug use and drug disorders than US-born Mexican-Americans. US nativity, regardless of parent nativity, is the main factor associated with increasing use of alcohol and drugs. Among families of migrants and among return migrants we found increased risk for alcohol use, drug use and alcohol and drug use disorders. Evidence of selective migration and return of immigrants with disorders was found regarding alcohol use disorders only. Conclusions Research efforts that combine populations from sending and receiving countries are needed. This effort will require much more complex research designs that will call for true international collaboration.

Networks of action and events over time. A multilevel discrete-time event history model for longitudinal network data

Longitudinal network data recording the moment at which ties appear, change, or disappear are increasingly available. Event history models can be used to analyze the dynamics of time-stamped network data. This paper adapts the discrete-time event history model to social network data. A discrete-time event history model can easily incorporate a multilevel design and time-varying covariates. A multilevel design is needed to account for dependencies among ties and vertices, which should not be ignored in a small longitudinal network. Time-varying covariates are required to analyze network effects, that is, the impact of previous ties. In addition, a discrete-time event history model handles constraints on who can act or who can be acted upon in a straightforward way. The model can be estimated with multilevel logistic regression analysis, which is illustrated by an application to book reviews, so network evolution can be analyzed with a fairly standard statistical tool.

A Matter of Number, Age or Marriage? Children and Marital Dissolution in Italy

Previous research has shown that the number of children, their age and the timing of births relative to marriage are associated with the stability of the parental marital union. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of children in this multidimensional association as a determinant of disruption in Italy, a country where this research question is particularly interesting because of the traditional vision of the family, in terms of formation and dissolution procedures, family and gender roles, and obligations among family members. The relative risk of marital disruption is estimated using some discrete time event-history models. As expected, the findings show that children born in the marriage have a large protective effect on marital stability, a sizeable portion of which is not due to the children’s age. Conversely, children born out of wedlock do not inhibit marital disruption, but neither do they increase the risk as they do in other countries. This is probably because of the type of reproductive behaviour widespread in Italy.

Unchanging child support orders in the face of unstable earnings

The underlying theory behind child support guidelines implies that child support orders should change when the incomes of noncustodial parents change. This paper documents changes in noncustodial fathers' earnings over a five-year period and examines the relationship between the changes in earnings and modifications in child support orders. Using detailed longitudinal administrative data from Wisconsin, the authors examine the history of orders and earnings for fathers in couples who had their first child support ordered in 2000. A substantial proportion of fathers experience large changes in earnings, but relatively few of the associated child support orders are modified. Using discrete-time multinomial event history models that consider time-varying variables and control for censored observations, we find some evidence of changes in earnings being associated with changes in orders, all else equal, but the relationship is relatively weak and order changes are not proportional to earnings changes. The findings highlight the challenges and importance of developing policies that result in child support orders being more responsive to changes in fathers' incomes. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

Crime, Race, and the Transition to Marriage

Although it has been suggested that engaging in criminal behavior diminishes young adults’ marriageability, few studies have examined the effect of criminal offending on marital timing. This analysis uses longitudinal data from 1,641 respondents to the National Youth Survey to examine this relationship. Discrete-time event-history models show that, among young men, criminal behavior is inversely associated with the risk of marriage, net of established determinants of marital timing. However, rather than reflecting criminal offenders’ reduced value as marriage partners, much of this association is because of offenders’ lesser desire to marry. No association between criminal behavior and marital timing is observed for young women, and racial differences in criminal offending cannot account for the pronounced racial difference in marital timing.

Employment transitions in the Netherlands, 1980–2004: Are low educated men subject to structural or cyclical crowding out?

This article addresses whether low educated men are displaced from their jobs by higher educated workers in the Netherlands in the period 1980–2004. In particular, we test whether structural or cyclical crowding out is predominant in the Dutch labor market. In order to do so, we try to explain the observed trends in education-specific transition rates to entry into first employment from education, exit from employment into unemployment or inactivity, and re-entry into employment from unemployment or inactivity for men by both business cycle effects (that is, changes in aggregate unemployment rates) and structural effects (that is, changes in labor supply–demand ratios for high educated). Discrete-time event history models are estimated using the OSA Labor Supply Panel 1985–2004. Retrospective information enables to study trends from 1980 onwards, so that structural effects can be distinguished from cyclical effects. The results show that structural crowding out exists at both the worker in- and outflow. First of all, it was observed that a growth in the oversupply of high educated increases the employment exit risk of low educated workers more so than that of higher educated ones. In addition, it was shown that an increase in the oversupply of high educated especially reduces the re-employment chances of low educated unemployed men. There is no evidence found for cyclical crowding out among low educated workers in the Dutch labor market.

Do Sons Prevent Marital Disruption More Than Daughters? Evidence From Italy

In a well-known study Morgan, Lye, and Condran (1988) stated that sons prevent the risk of divorce more than daughters do. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the sex composition of children on the stability of the parental marriage in Italy, a country where this research question is particularly interesting because of conservative gender roles within the family. The relative risk of marital dissolution is estimated for individuals with different numbers and sexes of children using a discrete time event-history model. The findings do not support either the hypothesis that sons contribute more to marital stability than daughters or the hypothesis that the effect of the sex composition of children has changed over time.

Gendered trajectories: women, work, and social change in Japan and Taiwan

CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures xxx Acknowledgments xxxs Chapter One Gender Inequality and Social Change in Japan and Taiwan 1 Chapter Two The Development of Women's Labor Market Experiences 000 Chapter Three Comparing Labor Market Structures and Workplace Dynamics 000 Chapter Four Patterns of Labor Exits among Women 000 Chapter Five Challenges from the Home Front 000 Chapter Six Returning to the Labor Force 000 Chapter Seven Higher Education and Gender Inequality 000 Chapter Eight Conclusion 000 Appendix A Description of the Data Sources 000 Appendix B Supplementary Tables 000 Notes 000 Bibliography 000 Index 000 [[starts on page vii]] TABLES AND FIGURES Tables 1.1. Comparison of Japan and Taiwan 000 2.1. Average number of jobs experienced throughout men's and women's employment careers 000 2.2. Distributions of current labor market locations by gender and frequency of employer changes 3.1. Occupational Distributions of the Female Labor Force in Japan and Taiwan 6.1. Description of Work Trajectories of Homemaking Women, Ages 25-60 B.1. Descriptive Statistics of the SSM and TSC Samples by Gender B.2. Ordinary Least Squares Regression Analysis of Log Annual Earnings B.3. Discrete-Time Event History Models Predicting Labor Force Exits at Any Point of Time B.4. Discrete-Time Event History Models Predicting Labor Force Exit upon Marriage B.5. Discrete-Time Event History Models Predicting Labor Force Exit around First Childbirth B.6. Discrete-Time Event History Models Predicting Labor Force Reentry B.7. Multinomial Logit Models Predicting Married Women's Current Work Status in Japan B.8. Multinomial Logit Models Predicting Women's Current Occupational Status B.9. Multinomial Logit Models Predicting Women's Current Organizational Locations B.10. Multinomial Logit Models Predicting Women's Current Employment Status Figures Annual economic growth rates in Japan and Taiwan, 1956-2005 000 Women's Labor Force Participation and Number of Children by Age Group Age Distributions of Brides and Mothers Giving Live Birth in 2004/2005 Attitudes Regarding Gender Roles in Japan and Taiwan Trends in Female Labor Force Participation During the Life Course Distributions of Women's Careers in Japan and Taiwan Proportion of Ever-Married Women Returning to the Labor Force by Various Ages Percentage of Workers with Experience of Within-Organizational Job Shifting by Current Occupation Job Mobility and Percent Changes in Annual Earnings Predicted Annual Earnings by Gender, Country, and Employment Status 3.1. Distribution of the Labor Force by Industry, 1951-2000 3.2. Unemployment and Nonfarm Labor Force Growth Rates, 1950-2000 3.3. Annual Increases in the Male Population of Working Age, 1950-2000 3.4. Comparisons of the Labor Force by Firm Size in Japan and Taiwan 4.1. Explanatory Framework 4.2. Occupational Effects on Ever-Married Women's Labor Force Exits at Various Times 4.3. Effects of Firm Size on Ever-Married Women's Labor Force Exits at Various Times 4.4. Relative Odds of Labor Force Exit of Public- to Private-Sector Employees 4.5. Effects of Individual Characteristics on the Likelihood of Exiting the Labor Force 4.6. Predicted Probabilities for Labor Force Exit in the Marriage Year 5.1. Percentage of Japanese Men at Home by Eight O'Clock on Weekdays 5.2. Percent Approval of Working Mothers with Young Children among Taiwanese Women, by Education 5.3. Trends of Male-Wage-to-Household-Spending Ratio and Family Size, 1965-2000 6.1. Labor Force Participation Rates of Seven Birth Cohorts at Various Ages 6.2. Estimated Probability of Labor Force Reentry, Hypothetical Cases 6.3. Comparison of Occupations before and after a Work Interruption 6.4. Comparison of Firm Size between the Female Labor Force and Women Reentrants 6.5. Comparison of Employment Status between the Female Labor Force and Women Reentrants 6.6. Effects of Postmarital Entry on Women's Current Work Status in Japan 7.1. School Systems in Japan and Taiwan 7.2. Estimated Advancement Rates to Various Educational Institutions among Taiwanese Middle- School Graduates, 1950-1998 7.3. Trends in Percent Female among Students in Tertiary Institutions 7.4. Trends in Percent Female Students Admitted to the University of Tokyo and National Taiwan University 7.5. Percentage of Students in Applied Science Programs by Educational Level in Taiwan 7.6. Percent Female Students in Four-Year Universities by University Ownership 8.1. Likelihood of Job Locations of Married versus Single Women 8.2. Comparisons of Japanese Women's Occupational Distributions 8.3. Percentage of Ever-Married, Working-Age Taiwanese Women in the Labor Force by Their First Occupation 8.4. Job Growth Rates by Gender and Employment Status in Japan, 1996-2007

Child care subsidy patterns: Are exits related to economic setbacks or economic successes?

Using a recent cohort of single mothers who received child care subsidies, this study explores the extent to which low-income families utilize subsidies, factors associated with subsidy exit, and whether these factors have differential influences on the various types of exit from the subsidy program (i.e., exit with high earnings, low earnings, or job loss). The study uses Wisconsin administrative data and explores five years of subsidy receipt by families who began receiving subsidies between March 2000 and February 2001. Separate analyses are conducted for mothers with pre-school-age children and mothers with school-age children. Using discrete-time event-history models, the analyses find that subsidy spells tend to end relatively quickly; 55% of mothers with pre-school-age children and 75% of mothers with school-age children left the program within one year after they began receiving subsidies, and most exits are for economic setbacks (job loss or low earnings). The analyses also find that human capital factors, characteristics that represent demand for child care, and contextual factors are all significantly related to subsidy exits, but in different ways for different exit types. The study also highlights differences in subsidy patterns between mothers with pre-school-age and school-age children. Policy and practice implications are discussed.

Processes of Internal and International Migration from Chitwan, Nepal

In this study we examine which factors predict internal and international migration from Chitwan, a flat valley located in the South-Central region of Nepal, seeking to measure the effect of theoretically specified variables such as human capital, social capital, physical capital, and neighborhood socioeconomic conditions while controlling for demographic variables. We use data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) to estimate a series of discrete time event history models of first and repeat migration to three competing destinations: other locations within Chitwan, other districts within Nepal, and places outside of Nepal. Results support hypotheses derived from neoclassical economics, the theory of new economics of migration, social capital theory, and cumulative causation theory. Our results underscore the need for a synthetic theoretical model that incorporates factors operating at the individual, household, and community levels. The use of multiple explanatory models yields a clearer picture of the forces driving internal and international migration from rural districts in developing nations such as Nepal.

Landholding and Fertility in Korea: 1914-1925

By matching the population registers with the land tax roster, the authors examine how a family's socioeconomic status, represented by the size of landholding, affected fertility behaviors among Korean women in a village of Jeju Island for the period from 1914 to 1925. Landholding is an important indicator of a family's socioeconomic condition, especially for this historical population, the majority of whom were engaged in agricultural work. The authors' discrete-time event history model shows that women in households with larger landholding sizes had a greater risk of birth than their counterparts in households with smaller landholding sizes. However, the relationship is not linear, showing no significant difference between the two highest groups of landholding. The authors interpret the nonlinear relationship in light of economic and agricultural conditions of the island. They highlight potential contributions of their findings for historical studies of population and families in East Asia.