Discrete-time Event History Models Research Articles

Cold homes and mental health harm: Evidence from the UK Household Longitudinal Study

Cold homes are associated with a range of serious health conditions as well as excess winter mortality. Despite a comparatively mild climate cold homes are a significant problem in the UK, with a recent estimate finding that over one-quarter of low-income households had been unable to adequately heat their home in winter 2022. The magnitude of cold housing in a country that benefits from a mild climate indicates indifference towards, or acceptance of, a significant minority of people living in inadequate conditions on the part of policy makers. Cold homes are therefore a source of social harm. Recent changes to the household energy price cap, the rising cost of living, the ongoing effects of the benefit cap, and below inflation uprating to social security benefits is likely to greatly exacerbate this issue. In this research we use data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study to explore whether living in a cold home causes mental health harm. We control for mental distress and housing temperature on entry to the survey in order to account for the potentially bi-directional relationship. Multilevel discrete-time event history models show that the transition into living in a home that is not suitably warm is associated with nearly double the odds of experiencing severe mental distress for those who had no mental distress at the beginning of the survey; and over three times the odds of severe mental distress for those previously on the borderline of severe mental distress. These results show the significant costs of failing to ensure that people are able to live in homes in which they are able to live comfortably by even the most basic standards. These costs will be felt not just individually, but also more broadly in terms of increased health spending and reduced working.

Does local income and wealth inequality affect mortality? A register-based fixed effects study of 58 million person-years.

Aim: The Income Inequality Hypothesis asserts that income inequality causes negative health burdens within wealthy nations. We aimed to test the hypothesis in Norway, examining the relationship between both income and wealth inequality, net of individual economic resources, and individual all-cause mortality. To this day, little is known about the association between wealth inequality and mortality. In Norway, wealth is far more unequally distributed than income and can be a more prevalent indicator of long-term financial security. Methods: We estimated discrete-time event history models from Norwegian register data, covering all Norwegian-born men and women aged 25-84 years during the period 1993-2013. We include fixed effects at the municipal level, adjusting for time-invariant characteristics in the local area. Our data contain approximately 58.5 million person-year observations after sample restrictions. Results: Overall, increased income and wealth inequality (measured using Gini coefficients of individuals' pensionable income and net worth) is not associated with higher mortality risk in Norway. With a one percentage point increase in income inequality, odds ratio (OR) for mortality was estimated at 0.998 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.996-1.001) for men and 1.002 (95% CI 0.999-1.006) for women. Corresponding OR from increased wealth inequality was 0.998 (95% CI 0.997-1.000) for men and 0.999 (95% CI 0.998-1.001) for women. Conclusions: Our results raise further doubts about the existence of a contextual effect of economic inequality on health, at least in a Nordic setting. Extensive health policies, relatively generous benefits and high levels of trust could potentially function as a buffer against negative health consequences of increased economic inequality in Norway.

Variation in the link between income position and union dissolution: an analysis of couples with and without a migrant background in Belgium

ABSTRACT Despite the fact that the size and diversity of migrant populations and their descendants in Europe have increased substantially throughout the past decades, income dynamics of union dissolution have not been studied among populations with a migrant background in the European context. Using data from the Belgian Social Security Registers from 1999–2013, we estimate discrete-time event-history models of union dissolution for couples of Belgian, Southern European, Moroccan and Turkish origin. The results indicate a weaker link between household income and union dissolution among couples with a Southern European and Turkish background. Whereas couples without a migrant background experience the lowest union dissolution risks when incomes are evenly distributed, the male breadwinner model does not raise union dissolution risks of couples with a migrant background. Welfare dependency has a positive association with union dissolution among all couples but the threshold at which it raises union dissolution risks is higher for couples with a Moroccan or Turkish background.

The Influence of Parental Education on First Marriages in China: The Role of Childhood Family Background

China has implemented the universal two-child policy to promote fertility whereas the trends of later marriage and childbearing still prevail. The marriage timing of young adults has received considerable attention. However, studies tailored to the Chinese context remain limited. Using data from the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey 2016, we established bivariate and multinomial logistic regression discrete-time event-history models to examine the influence of parental educational attainment on their children’s first marriages. Not only the effects of parental education on their children’s likelihood of entry to first marriages and marriage postponement but also changes in these effects by sex, region, and across birth cohorts and the individual life course were analyzed. In general, there was a significantly positive relationship between parents’ educational attainment and the likelihood of their children’s entry into first marriages. However, it couldn’t explain variations about the timing of first marriages or marriage postponement. Analyses of subsamples revealed considerable heterogeneity in the effects of parental educational attainment by sex and region. These findings reveal the influence of childhood family background factors on marriage behaviors and provide a basis for predicting future marriage and childbearing trends in China. This study provides meaningful inputs and a rationale for amending the minimum legal marriageable age and for promoting marriage and births within Chinese marriage law.

Is there a welfare trap? Duration dependence in social assistance recipiency among young Finns

The probability of social assistance exit decreasing over time is called negative duration dependence. This is one of the most debated aspects of social assistance receipt. This study analyses duration dependence among young adults in Finland and aims to show how social assistance receipt per se affects the likelihood of exiting social assistance. It also examines whether parental recipiency is associated with duration dependence. While the intergenerational transmission of social assistance has received extensive research attention, there is a scarcity of evidence on whether parental recipiency is associated with social assistance exits and duration effects. This study uses full monthly history of social assistance receipt between the ages of 19 and 29 years. The analyses are based on Finnish register data and conducted using discrete-time event-history models (pooled logistic, random-effect logistic and fixed-effect logistic). The findings indicate that controlling for all time-invariant characteristics significantly reduces but does not completely remove duration dependence among young adults. They also show that those whose parents received social assistance are less likely to exit social assistance. In models controlling for all time-invariant characteristics, parental social assistance receipt is also linked with stronger duration dependence. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Twin epidemics: the effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019

BackgroundSub-Saharan African settings are experiencing dual epidemics of HIV and hypertension. We investigate effects of each condition on mortality and examine whether HIV and hypertension interact in determining mortality.MethodsData come from the 2010 Ha Nakekela population-based survey of individuals ages 40 and older (1,802 women; 1,107 men) nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa, which provides mortality follow-up from population surveillance until mid-2019. Using discrete-time event history models stratified by sex, we assessed differential mortality risks according to baseline measures of HIV infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.ResultsDuring the 8-year follow-up period, mortality was high (477 deaths). Survey weighted estimates are that 37% of men (mortality rate 987.53/100,000, 95% CI: 986.26 to 988.79) and 25% of women (mortality rate 937.28/100,000, 95% CI: 899.7 to 974.88) died. Over a quarter of participants were living with HIV (PLWH) at baseline, over 50% of whom had unsuppressed viral loads. The share of the population with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg or higher increased from 24% at ages 40-59 to 50% at ages 75-plus and was generally higher for those not living with HIV compared to PLWH. Men and women with unsuppressed viral load had elevated mortality risks (men: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.23, 95% CI: 2.21 to 4.71, women: aOR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.30). There was a weak, non-linear relationship between systolic blood pressure and higher mortality risk. We found no significant interaction between systolic blood pressure and HIV status for either men or women (p>0.05).ConclusionsOur results indicate that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population.PLWH with unsuppressed viral load were at higher mortality risk compared to those uninfected. Systolic blood pressure was a mortality risk factor independent of HIV status. As antiretroviral therapy becomes more widespread, further longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand how the dynamics of increased longevity and multimorbidity among people living with both HIV and high blood pressure, as well as the emergence of COVID-19, may alter these patterns.

How Young Mothers Rely on Kin Networks and Formal Childcare to Avoid Becoming NEET in the Netherlands.

Motherhood is often cited as one of the main reasons for young women to become NEET (not in employment, education, or training). Given the potential long-term negative implications of NEET status, it is important to understand which types of resources can help young mothers to avoid becoming NEET around childbirth. In this paper we investigate how the chances of young mothers to become and stay NEET around the time of first birth are related to the availability and characteristics of members of their social support network, especially partners and grandparents, to assist in childcare. In addition, we consider the local availability of formal childcare. We use population-wide register data from the Netherlands and estimate discrete-time eventhistory models. Our results show that young mothers who are cohabitating or married are less likely to become NEETs than single mothers. We also show that economic activity and relative wage of both young mothers and their partners decreases the likelihood to become NEET and to exit NEET. With respect to the grandparents, we find that having more grandparents live in the immediate vicinity is associated with a lower likelihood to become NEET and a higher likelihood to exit NEET. Furthermore, we find that young mothers with economically inactive parents are more likely to become and less likely to exit NEET. Lastly, we find evidence for crowding-out of informal and formal childcare. Formal and informal childcare sources interact in such a way that the role of either becomes less important as more of the other is available.

Linked Lives: Does Disability and Marital Quality Influence Risk of Marital Dissolution among Older Couples?

Using fourteen waves of data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a longitudinal panel survey with respondents in the United States, this research explores whether marital quality—as measured by reports of enjoyment of time together—influences risk of divorce or separation when either spouse acquires basic care disability. Discrete-time event history models with multiple competing events were estimated using multinomial logistic regression. Respondents were followed until they experienced the focal event (i.e., divorce or separation) or right-hand censoring (i.e., a competing event or were still married at the end of observation). Disability among wives was predictive of divorce/separation in the main effects model. Low levels of marital quality (i.e., enjoy time together) were associated with marital dissolution. An interaction between marital quality and disability yielded a significant association among couples where at least one spouse acquired basic care disability. For couples who acquired disability, those who reported low enjoyment were more likely to divorce/separate than those with high enjoyment; however, the group with the highest predicted probability were couples with low enjoyment, but no acquired disability.

Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe: How Do the Low-Educated Fare?

Recent research suggests that the fertility-education relationship may be mediated by the educational attainment of the partner, especially among the tertiary-educated. However, there are no studies focusing on the couple-education-fertility nexus among couples who achieved only basic educational attainment, even though resource pooling theory predicts differences in family formation by couples’ joint levels of socio-economic resources. We address this research gap and investigate how educational pairings among married and cohabiting partners relate to second and third birth transitions across 22 European countries, using data from the EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) panel and discrete time event history models. Our findings show significantly lower second and third birth transition rates among homogamous low-educated couples compared to heterogamous couples with one low- and one medium or highly-educated partner in the Nordic countries, but not across the rest of Europe. However, couples with one or two low-educated partners have significantly lower second birth rates compared with couples with two highly-educated partners in all European regions.

Immigrants' Employment Stability Over the Great Recession and Its Aftermath.

We examine immigrant men's employment stability during the Great Recession and its aftermath using a longitudinal approach that draws on data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), a nationally representative panel survey of U.S. residents. Discrete-time event-history models are used to estimate male immigrants' relative risk of experiencing an involuntary job loss or underemployment, defined as working less than full-time involuntarily. The analysis also investigates differences in job stability by immigrant documentation status. Undocumented immigrants are identified using a logical allocation method augmented with external information about whether the respondent was successfully matched with administrative data. We find that immigrants are at significantly higher risk of involuntary job loss, and especially of underemployment relative to native-born workers. Undocumented immigrants face a greater risk of adverse job transitions, particularly underemployment in the first part of the recession. When demographic and job characteristics are taken into account, immigrant-native and documented-undocumented differences attenuate but remain in many instances. A comparison of our findings with those from an earlier nonrecessionary period from 2004 to 2006 suggests that immigrants' higher risk of employment instability may be attributed to the recession.

Does Re-Partnering Behavior Spread Among Former Spouses?

This study focused on individuals’ re-partnering behavior following a divorce and asked whether divorcees influence each other’s new union formation. By exploiting the System of Social statistical Datasets (SSD) of Statistics Netherlands, I identified divorced dyads and examined interdependencies in their re-partnering behavior. Discrete-time event history models accounting for shared characteristics of divorcees that are likely to influence their divorce and re-partnering behavior simultaneously were estimated. Findings showed that the probability of re-partnering increased within the first two years following a former spouse’s new union formation. Further analyses focusing on formerly cohabiting couples rather than divorcees also revealed significant associations in re-partnering behavior. Following a former romantic partner’s new union formation, women were exposed to risk longer than men, due to men’s quicker re-partnering. These results were robust to the falsification tests. Overall, findings indicate that the consequences of a divorce or breakup are not limited to the incidence itself and former romantic partners remain important in each other’s life courses even after a breakup. With the increasing number of divorcees and changing family structures, it is important to consider former spouses as active network partners that may influence individual life courses.

The Interplay of Having an Abortion, Relationship Satisfaction, and Union Dissolution

This study researches the associations between having an abortion, relationship satisfaction, and union dissolution. Empirical evidence on this topic is scarce, and there is a pronounced lack of studies analysing longitudinal data: Most previous studies have used data from women recruited from abortion clinics who are about to undergo an abortion, and therefore do not incorporate a prospective measure of relationship satisfaction pre-pregnancy. Panel studies, on the other hand, collect prospective data on various topics and allow for the estimation of more advanced models that can help identify causal mechanisms. Using data from the German Family Panel pairfam in combination with pooled logistic regressions, discrete-time event history models, as well as fixed effects regression models, this study compares relationships up to nine years before having had an abortion and eight years afterwards. The findings of the analyses can neither confirm that relationship satisfaction acts as a confounding factor that influences both the likelihood of terminating a pregnancy and union dissolution, nor as a mediating factor between having an abortion and union dissolution. A negative effect of having an abortion on relationship satisfaction appears to be only temporary. In the year of an abortion, relationship satisfaction decreases slightly. In the following years, a significant difference in relationship satisfaction to pre-abortion years is no longer visible. By using panel data, the temporal order of events can be retraced, resulting in the discovery that relationship satisfaction and union dissolution do not change drastically from pre-abortion values after having an abortion.
 * This article belongs to a special issue on "Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data".

Educational Inequalities in Labor Market Exit of Older Workers in 15 European Countries

AbstractThis article examines country differences in the association between education and voluntary or involuntary labor market exit and whether these country differences map onto institutional characteristics of the countries. Work exit is defined as involuntary or voluntary based on the reasons of exit. Four different types of institutional factors, push and pull, aiming for an earlier work exit and need and maintain factors to retain older workers in employment are considered. Using data from 15 European countries from the longitudinal Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), discrete-time event history models with a categorical outcome are estimated for each country separately. In a second step, we add macro-level indicators and conduct meta-analyses to analyze country differences. Results show that in almost all countries a social gradient in involuntary work exit exists but not in voluntary exit. Lower-educated workers are more likely to involuntarily exit the labor market. Institutional factors, especially those supporting older workers’ retention in employment, are associated with a smaller social gradient in work exit. Our findings suggest that investments in active labor market expenditures, especially in lifelong learning and rehabilitation for lower educated workers, may help to reduce the social gradient in involuntary work exit.

Does Emancipation Matter? Fertility of Chinese International Migrants to the United States and Nonmigrants during China’s One-child Policy Period

This article investigates the impact of international migration to the United States on the level and timing of Chinese migrants’ fertility. We compare Chinese women who did not leave the country (non-migrants) and were subject to restrictive family policies from 1974 to 2015 to those who moved to the United States (migrants) and were, thus, “emancipated” from these policies. We theoretically develop and empirically test the emancipation hypothesis that migrants should have a higher fertility than non-migrants, as well as an earlier timing of childbearing. This emancipation effect is hypothesized to decline across birth cohorts. We use data from the 2000 US census, the 2005 American Community Survey, the 2000 Chinese census, and the 2005 Chinese 1 percent Population Survey and discrete-time event history models to analyze first, second, and third births, and migration as joint processes, to account for selection effects. The results show that Chinese migrants to the United States had substantially higher childbearing probabilities after migration, compared with non-migrants in China, especially for second and third births. Moreover, our analyses indicate that the migration process is selective of migrants with lower fertility. Overall, the results show how international migration from China to the United States can lead to an increase in migrant women’s fertility, accounting for disruption, adaptation, and selection effects. The rapidly increased fertility after migration from China to the United States might have implications on other migration contexts where fertility in the origin country is dropping rapidly while that in the destination country is relatively stable.

Marital loss and risk of dementia: Do race and gender matter?

Recent studies have found that marital loss through divorce or widowhood is associated with a higher risk of dementia for older adults. However, whether these associations vary by race and gender is less clear. To address this gap, we drew upon longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (2000-2016) to investigate the association between marital loss and dementia risk, separately for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. We further examined gender variations in the link between marital loss and dementia risk within each racial group. Results from discrete-time event history models suggested that widowhood is significantly associated with a higher risk of dementia for both Whites and Blacks, controlling for basic demographic characteristics. However, while divorce is significantly associated with a higher risk of dementia for Blacks, the association is marginally significant (p<0.1) for Whites. There are few significant gender variations in these associations except for the effect of divorce among Whites. Even after controlling for economic and health-related factors, we found that divorce is associated with a higher risk of dementia among White men but not among White women. Economic resources explain a significant portion of the association between widowhood and dementia risk, more so for Whites than for Blacks. Our findings call for more research into the pathways through which marital loss shapes the risk of dementia across racial and ethnic groups.

Neighbourhoods and Workplaces: Are They Related to the Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants? A Register-Based Study of Finland, 1999–2014

An increasing number of studies point to the existence of fertility differences between immigrants and those who are native to the receiving countries. However, despite a large body of literature covering a wide range of settings, there is a lack of research into the factors that may underlie the observed differentials. In this article, we focus on the role of population composition in residential neighbourhoods and workplaces, which are assumed to influence the convergence of the fertility patterns of immigrants with those of the host country. The study is based on individual-based register data for the residential population of Finland from 1999 to 2014. We use discrete-time event history models to analyse transitions to first, second, and third births among immigrant women and their descendants of African and Middle Eastern origin whose fertility patterns are markedly different from those of the host society. We investigate whether the proportion of co-ethnic immigrants in residential neighbourhoods and workplaces is related with the fertility adaptation among that high-fertility group. Our results suggest that among them, a higher concentration of co-ethnic immigrants in the neighbourhood is associated with an elevated propensity of having a second and third child. The association persists among child migrants and the second generation. However, a similar association is not observed between fertility and the workplace context.

Premarital Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution: A Reply to Manning, Smock, and Kuperberg

AbstractObjectiveOur goal is to show how premarital cohabitation's association with marital dissolution can be measured consistently over time.BackgroundRosenfeld and Roesler (2019) showed that premarital cohabitation led to lower rates of marital dissolution early in marital duration, but higher rates of marital dissolution after a few years of marital duration. Analysis based on marriage cohorts can erroneously appear to show that the association between premarital cohabitation and marital dissolution has disappeared in the most recent cohort.MethodWe use discrete time event history models to study the association between premarital cohabitation and marital dissolution across calendar time and across marriage cohorts, with data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). We examine a variety of modeling strategies and data filters including those in Manning, Smock, and Kuperberg's (MSK) comment to show how different data and modeling choices can bias the results.ResultsMSK's analysis rests on simple misunderstandings of our models. MSK discarded more than 70% of the valid couple years available in the NSFG data, and then used the resulting lower statistical power to declare a key interaction insignificant. MSK treat children as a time‐invariant variable despite the fact that the presence of children changes over the course of relationships. MSK discard one wave of the data without explanation. All of these choices affect the outcome.ConclusionOur prior result stands: premarital cohabitation consistently predicts higher rates of marital dissolution in the U.S. Research into marital dissolution should be made more robust, transparent, and replicable.

Prevalence of Self-Managed Abortion Among Women of Reproductive Age in the United States

Increasing evidence indicates that people are attempting their own abortions outside the formal health care system. However, population-based estimates of experience with self-managed abortion (SMA) are lacking. To estimate the prevalence of SMA attempts among the general US population. This cross-sectional survey study was fielded August 2 to 17, 2017 among English- and Spanish- speaking, self-identified female panel members from the GfK web-based KnowledgePanel. Women ages 18 to 49 years were approached to complete a 1-time survey. Data were analyzed from September 22, 2017, to March 26, 2020. SMA was defined as "some women may do something on their own to try to end a pregnancy without medical assistance. For example, they may get information from the internet, a friend, or family member about pills, medicine, or herbs they can take on their own, or they may do something else to try to end the pregnancy." SMA was assessed using the question, "Have you ever taken or used something on your own, without medical assistance, to try to end an unwanted pregnancy?" Participants reporting SMA were asked about methods used, reasons, and outcomes. Factors associated with SMA experience, including age, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, nativity, reproductive health history, and geography, were assessed. Projected lifetime SMA prevalence was estimated using discrete-time event history models, adjusting for abortion underreporting. Among 14 151 participants invited to participate, 7022 women (49.6%) (mean [SE] age, 33.9 [9.0] years) agreed to participate. Among these, 57.4% (95% CI, 55.8%-59.0%) were non-Hispanic White, 20.2% (95% CI, 18.9%-21.5%) were Hispanic, and 13.3% (95% CI, 12.1%-14.5%) were non-Hispanic Black; and 15.1% (95% CI, 14.1%-16.3%) reported living at less than 100% federal poverty level (FPL). A total of 1.4% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.8%) of participants reported a history of attempting SMA while in the US. Projected lifetime prevalence of SMA adjusting for underreporting of abortion was 7.0% (95% CI, 5.5%-8.4%). In bivariable analyses, non-Hispanic Black (prevalence ratio [PR], 3.16; 95% CI, 1.48-6.75) and Hispanic women surveyed in English (PR, 3.74; 95% CI, 1.78-7.87) were more likely than non-Hispanic White women to have attempted SMA. Women living below 100% of the FPL were also more likely to have attempted SMA compared with those at 200% FPL or greater (PR, 3.43; 95% CI, 1.83-6.42). At most recent SMA attempt, 20.0% (95% CI, 10.9%-33.8%) of respondents used misoprostol, 29.2% (95% CI, 17.5%-44.5%) used another medication or drug, 38.4% (95% CI, 25.3%-53.4%) used herbs, and 19.8% (95% CI, 10.0%-35.5%) used physical methods. The most common reasons for SMA included that it seemed faster or easier (47.2% [95% CI, 33.0%-61.8%]) and the clinic was too expensive (25.2% [95% CI, 15.7%-37.7%]). Of all attempts, 27.8% (95% CI, 16.6%-42.7%) of respondents reported they were successful; the remainder reported they had subsequent facility-based abortions (33.6% [95% CI, 21.0%-49.0%]), continued the pregnancy (13.4% [95% CI, 7.4%-23.1%]), had a miscarriage (11.4% [95% CI, 4.2%-27.5%]), or were unsure (13.3% [95% CI, 6.8%-24.7%]). A total of 11.0% (95% CI, 5.5%-21.0%) of respondents reported a complication. This cross-sectional study found that approximately 7% of US women reported having attempted SMA in their lifetime, commonly with ineffective methods. These findings suggest that surveys of SMA experience among patients at abortion clinics may capture only one-third of SMA attempts. People's reasons for attempting SMA indicate that as abortion becomes more restricted, SMA may become more common.

Marital Status and Risk of Dementia: Does Race Matter?

Previous research has shown that unmarried individuals (i.e., divorced, widowed, and never married) had a higher risk of dementia than their married counterparts. However, few studies examined whether the link between marital status and dementia varies by race. To fill the gap, we used data from the Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2000-2014) and analyzed 15,379 respondents (13,278 non-Hispanic whites and 2,101 non-Hispanic blacks) ages 50 and older in 2000 who had no dementia. Discrete-time event history models were estimated. Our preliminary analysis showed that marital status was significantly associated with the odds of dementia for both whites and blacks. Furthermore, the associations between unmarried status (i.e., cohabiting, widowed, and never married) and dementia were stronger among blacks than whites. The effect of divorce on odds of dementia did not differ by race. The results were robust after controlling for socioeconomic status, health and lifestyle factors, and social engagements. Part of a symposium sponsored by the Alzheimer’s Disease Research Interest Group.

Sibling Death in the Family and Dementia Risk

Growing evidence points to the role of stress in contributing to dementia risk, and experiencing the death of a family member is a particularly stressful life event. Sibling relationships are typically life-long relationships and the death of a sibling is likely to be a stressful event in the life course; however, there is little research illuminating the possible consequences of sibling loss for dementia risk. This study considers whether experiencing the death of a sibling before midlife is associated with subsequent dementia risk and how such losses, which are more common for Black and Hispanic than for White populations, may add to racial/ethnic disparities in dementia risk. We use discrete-time event history models to predict dementia incidence among 9,590 non-Hispanic white, 1,669 non-Hispanic black, and 1,109 Hispanic respondents from the Health and Retirement Study, 2000-2014. Losing a sibling during the observation period is associated with increased risk for later dementia. The death of a sibling is robust to the inclusion of a variety of biosocial factors that contribute to subsequent dementia risk. The death of a sibling is a life course event with consequences that appear to increase dementia risk for Black and Hispanic older adults, and this increased risk is explained by biosocial processes likely activated by bereavement. However, Black and Hispanic Americans are further disadvantaged in that they are more likely than White Americans to experience the death of a sibling, and such losses add to the already substantial racial disadvantage in dementia risk.