Aiming at the complex characteristics of negative pressure waves in low-pressure pipelines inside of buildings, we proposed an estimation method of pressure fluctuation trends based on the robust Kalman filter and the improved VMD, which can be used for leakage detection. The reconstructed baseline signal can accurately describe the fluctuation trend of the negative pressure wave after the pressure drop, and quantitatively express the characteristic difference between the leakage condition and the gas usage condition. The robust Kalman filter was used to estimate the pressure fluctuations. The parameters of VMD were adaptively calculated based on the WAA and discrete scale space. The trend components contained in the IMFs were separated by a reconstruction based on the Fourier series. Based on the simulation signal, the method can accurately restore the trend component contained in the complex pressure signal. Based on the actual signals, the accuracy of small leakage detection is 96.7% and the accuracy of large leakage detection is 73.3%.
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