Disaster Risk Analysis Research Articles

Risk analysis of hydrometeorological disasters: methodological approach applied to medium-sized municipalities

Resumo A crise climática tem afetado negativamente pessoas de todo o mundo, entretanto, as cidades resilientes têm conseguido proteger melhor seus habitantes e, por esse motivo, vários instrumentos legais e normativos estão sendo elaborados. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi propor uma metodologia de análise de riscos de desastres hidrometeorológicos com utilização de subindicadores da NBR ISO 37.123/2021 aplicados aos municípios com mais de 100 mil habitantes do Paraná, Brasil. A partir desses subindicadores, foram criados novos indicadores com as informações da Defesa Civil do Paraná e do Instituto Paranaense de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social sobre eventos anuais de tempestades extremas, calor excessivo, frio excessivo e enchentes, e o número total de atingidos anualmente nos últimos dez anos. A análise foi realizada quantitativamente por equações e gráficos. Observou-se que Araucária, Curitiba, Foz do Iguaçu, Guarapuava, Paranaguá, Ponta Grossa e São José dos Pinhais são os municípios que mais precisam se preparar para tempestades extremas, inundações, alagamentos e enxurradas. Além disso, Guarapuava tem propensão a ondas de frio, e Maringá tem tendência a fortes tempestades. Também se constatou que a NBR ISO 37.123/2021 precisa ser revista de forma a se adaptar à realidade brasileira com relação aos indicadores de desastres hidrometeorológicos.

帕米尔高原暴雨时空分布及灾害风险分析

帕米尔高原暴雨时空分布及灾害风险分析

Characteristic analysis and potential hazard assessment of reclaimed mountainous areas in Lanzhou, China

The limited available land and unique geomorphological features of the Loess Plateau have restricted the urbanization process, causing the spread of land reclamation (LR). This study examined the city of Lanzhou using remote sensing, statistical methods and a numerical model to analyze the distribution law and the potential disaster impact within the LR areas to suggest prevention and control measures. The results showed that the numbers of 93 LR can be divided into remove-mountaintop (RM), cut-one-side-slope (COSS) and cut-both-side-slopes (CBSS), and their numbers increased from 2000 to 2010, thereafter decreasing; a good exponent relationship was also observed between land creation area and excavation volume. A large number of LR areas are distributed on both sides of the Yellow River, which can potentially generate more mudflows and cause huge economic losses and casualties, especially in the core urban areas. A positive exponential relationship was found between the mudflow volume and accumulation area in the simulation results and the statistical data, and the fitting results were generally similar. The mudflow impact scale, simulated using a modified LAHARZ model, was found to be reliable. The analysis of disaster risk demonstrates that the potential hazards of LR are both preventable and controllable and that a focus on long-term risk is required. This study aims to support geological disaster prevention, control and emergency management.

Study on the Risk Assessment Method of Rainfall Landslide

Quantitative risk assessment of landslides has always been the focus and difficulty in the field of landslide research. In this paper, taking Mayang County, Hunan Province as an example, the risk assessment of rainfall-induced landslides was carried out from the regional and individual scales. On the regional scale, the risk factors of geological disasters were analyzed. Based on the slope unit, the risk analysis of slope geological disasters and the vulnerability risk assessment of hazard-bearing bodies were carried out to form the block plan. On an individual scale, based on the analysis of rainfall extreme value, the variation law of landslide seepage field and stability under different rainfall recurrence periods was simulated. Then, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body was studied according to the analysis of the impact range and the field investigation. Combined with the evaluation results of landslide hazard and vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, the life and economic risks under different working conditions were further obtained. Therefore, the research results could provide not only a reference for the risk assessment of rainfall-induced landslides in other regions but also a theoretical basis for the early warning and prediction of landslide disasters.

Earthquake Disaster Risk Analysis in South Morotai Tourism Area

Morotai is located in the subduction zone of the Philippine Sea Plate and has the potential to be a threat to earthquake disasters. Given that the Morotai region tourism area has the potential to be threatened by earthquakes, it is necessary to prepare a Disaster Risk Assessment (KRB) in the Tourism Area, especially in South Morotai. The purpose of the disaster risk analysis study in the tourism area is to identify potential hazards based on earthquake vulnerability, and prepare a disaster risk assessment in the South Morotai priority tourism area. The risk assessment research conducted uses earthquake hazard information with the maximum ground acceleration value on the surface (PGA) obtained from updated results that have been carried out by PusGEn. The earthquake disaster risk assessment resulting from the analysis of hazard, vulnerability and capacity is obtained in the form of a high disaster risk level. Areas with high disaster risk are Daruba Village (score 11.1) and Darame Village (13.9). However, in terms of the area at high risk, Daruba Village has a large area of 15.1 km2. A planning strategy is needed for the development of disaster resilient tourism destinations by analyzing the 6A factors, namely attractions, accessibility, amenities, available packages, activities, and ancillary services.

Scientific challenges in disaster risk reduction for the Sichuan–Tibet Railway

Traversing the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, the Sichuan–Tibet Railway is by far the most difficult railway project in the world. The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau features the most active crustal dynamics on earth, the strongest coupling effects of endogenic and exogenic dynamics, and the environment most sensitive to global climate change. The project area is characterized by extremely cold climate, high elevation and relief, high seismic intensity, high geothermal activity, and high tectonic stress. Consequently, the threat of various disaster risks is ever-present at different stages of the entire life cycle of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway. There is urgent need to systematically study these problems at various levels from the fundamental science to the development of key technologies. This article investigates the different disaster risks recognized during the various stages of construction of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway project, and summarizes the scientific challenges and technical problems faced in relation to disaster risk prevention and control. This work also introduces the scientific deployment and relevant research progress of the Sichuan–Tibet Fund special project initiated by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Here, we also aim to solve the major fundamental scientific challenges in terms of long-term risk prevention and control during the construction of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, and lay a theoretical foundation to promote breakthroughs in the bottleneck of key technologies. The scientific challenges addressed in the study of disaster risk associated with the Sichuan–Tibet Railway include the following: The quantitative assessment of the activity of deep-large faults and strong earthquake prediction, the evolution of physical fields in areas of strong tectonic activity, the development mechanisms of tunnel hazards, the slope evolution processes under coupled endogenic and exogenic dynamics in alpine gorges, the impact of climate change on the formation and evolution of surface hazards, and the evolution of extreme wind fields in deep-cut canyons. The technical problems faced in disaster risk prevention and mitigation in relation to the Sichuan–Tibet Railway are as follows: Advanced identification, monitoring, and early warning of geological disasters in mountainous areas with steep and complex terrain; risk analysis, prevention, and control of railway engineering disasters based on their dynamic processes; tunnel engineering hazard monitoring, early warning, risk analysis, prevention, and control technologies; key technologies for emergency response; and the green and resilient railway system and lifecycle risk management. The Sichuan–Tibet Fund special project will include five key research topics: (1) the interior geological structure and dynamic evolution of the eastern plateau; (2) the hazard-inducing mechanisms of coupled internal and external forces in canyons and gullies within plateaus; (3) the cataclysm mechanics of deeply buried long-distance tunnel engineering; (4) risk identification and projection of major disasters affecting the railway; and (5) the integrated management of scientific innovations and super large-scale railway construction. Systematic research is expected to reveal the evolution of earth surface movements and coupled engineering-disturbance related disasters. It will also enable the formation of a comprehensive risk analysis method for major engineering disasters, and promote the development of green, safe, efficient, and resilient engineering disaster risk reduction technologies that will support the disaster risk management during the entire lifecycle of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway.

KAJIAN RISIKO BENCANA ABRASI WILAYAH PANTAI KECAMATAN GALESONG, KABUPATEN TAKALAR

Preliminary research on the risk assessment of coastal erosion in the Galesong District. The beach is an area between land and sea where various kinds of human activities are carried out in the coastal area. In the last few years, the abrasion disaster in the coastal area of Galesong District has continued to increase, so that the facilities and houses of the residents have been damaged. Disaster risk analysis is carried out to determine the value of disaster risk and develop strategies to reduce existing disaster risks. The data analyzed in the form of secondary data originating from the research literature at the location being studied as well as the database of agencies related to the population of the Galesong District. The risk value for coastal abrasion disaster in Galesong District was obtained, then a strategy was developed to reduce the risk value for coastal abrasion disaster in Galesong District.

EMPOWERING GEO-BASED AI ALGORITHM TO AID COASTAL FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS: A REVIEW AND FRAMEWORK DEVELOPMENT

Abstract. Climate change and current susceptibilities exacerbated the coastal flood loss and damage resulting in livelihoods and property damage. Urban areas in the Low to Lower-Middle Income Countries are expected to be disproportionately impacted by the disaster, given a higher share of citizens living in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone, limited financial resources, and poorly constructed disaster protection. Documentation of historical coastal floods, population, and property affected, could advance the assessment by considering those parameters in risk analysis. Besides, incorporating such geographic features e.g., mangroves as the ecological solution for alternative coastal flood protection in the prediction is also essential. Mangrove is considered fit for the LLMIC primarily situated in the tropical zone. The prediction utilizing spatial Machine Learning (ML) could aid climate-related disaster risk analysis and contribute to risk reduction and policy suggestions to improve disaster resilience. The research aims to archive recent studies on the application of geospatial science empowering Artificial Intelligence, notably ML in coastal flood risk assessment, so-called GIS-based AI. Another aim is to document population, property, and mangrove distribution across the LLMIC. Artificial Neural Networks were mostly utilized for disaster risk assessment in past research. The number of 58 historical coastal flood events and 908 expected coastal flood hotspots for 2006 to 2021 has been documented. Over 1,2 million Km2 falls under vulnerable areas toward coastal flood in LLMIC under different settlement types where Large City (urban areas) dominates it. Mangrove distribution is mainly distributed across tropical regions mostly distributed along the Southeast Asia coast.

Murphy Scale: A locational equivalent intensity scale for hazard events.

Empirical cross-hazard analysis and prediction of disaster vulnerability, resilience, and risk requires a common metric of hazard strengths across hazard types. In this paper, the authors propose an equivalent intensity scale for cross-hazard evaluation of hazard strengths of events for entire durations at locations. The proposed scale is called the Murphy Scale, after Professor Colleen Murphy. A systematic review and typology of hazard strength metrics is presented to facilitate the delineation of the defining dimensions of the proposed scale. An empirical methodology is introduced to derive equivalent intensities of hazard events on a Murphy Scale. Using historical data on impacts and hazard strength indicators of events from 2013 to 2017, the authors demonstrate the utility of the proposed methodology for computing the equivalent intensities for earthquakes and tropical cyclones. As part of a new area of research called hazard equivalency, the proposed Murphy Scale paves the way toward creating multi-hazard hazard maps. The proposed scale can also be leveraged to facilitate hazard communication regarding past and future local experiences of hazard events for enhancing multi-hazard preparedness, mitigation, and emergency response.

A macroeconomic disaster risk analysis: The case study of Chile

From a macroeconomic perspective, the occurrence of disasters, especially high-impact events, can lead to financial stress in a country due to the sudden high demand for resources to restore affected exposed assets. Disaster risk is a sovereign risk and implies a non-explicit contingent liability that, in many cases, has a major impact on fiscal sustainability. Two risk composite indicators have been used to measure the impact that potential disasters can mean for a country: (i) The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), which measures a country's financial capacity to cover the economic losses generated after the occurrence of high-impact events; and (ii) A complementary index (DDI′), which indicates the fraction that the expected annual loss would represent to the annual surplus of a country. This paper describes the overall macroeconomic impact of disasters and presents DDI results for Chile, which allows national-level decision-makers to understand the economic implications of disasters for the country and the need to consider this kind of information in the long-term policies. Results of the DDI for Chile illustrate that extreme disasters would imply the need for a significant amount of budgetary resources from the government. Estimated losses would be double the available budget resources and the financing of the recovery could mean restrictions to invest in other ongoing social and development needs of the country. This macroeconomic risk in Chile may be hedged by strategically setting up a risk financial structure based on adequate loss estimation criteria, using different available alternatives such as public and private assets insurance, disasters' reserves, contingency credits contracts, and investing in prevention and mitigation to reduce potential economic losses.

Documenting cultural heritage in an INSPIRE-based 3D GIS for risk and vulnerability analysis

PurposeThe study, within the Increasing Resilience of Cultural Heritage (ResCult) project, aims to support civil protection to prevent, lessen and mitigate disasters impacts on cultural heritage using a unique standardised-3D geographical information system (GIS), including both heritage and risk and hazard information.Design/methodology/approachA top-down approach, starting from existing standards (an INSPIRE extension integrated with other parts from the standardised and shared structure), was completed with a bottom-up integration according to current requirements for disaster prevention procedures and risk analyses. The results were validated and tested in case studies (differentiated concerning the hazard and type of protected heritage) and refined during user forums.FindingsBesides the ensuing reusable database structure, the filling with case studies data underlined the tough challenges and allowed proposing a sample of workflows and possible guidelines. The interfaces are provided to use the obtained knowledge base.Originality/valueThe increasing number of natural disasters could severely damage the cultural heritage, causing permanent damage to movable and immovable assets and tangible and intangible heritage. The study provides an original tool properly relating the (spatial) information regarding cultural heritage and the risk factors in a unique archive as a standard-based European tool to cope with these frequent losses, preventing risk.

Focus on Risk Crisis Management! 2021 Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions Was Held in Wenzhou

Focus on Risk Crisis Management! 2021 Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions Was Held in Wenzhou

Prevention of Hypothermia in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters in Areas at Risk of Avalanches, Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Floods.

Throughout history, accidental hypothermia has accompanied natural disasters in cold, temperate, and even subtropical regions. We conducted a non-systematic review of the causes and means of preventing accidental hypothermia after natural disasters caused by avalanches, earthquakes, tsunamis, and floods. Before a disaster occurs, preventive measures are required, such as accurate disaster risk analysis for given areas, hazard mapping and warning, protecting existing structures within hazard zones to the greatest extent possible, building structures outside hazard zones, and organising rapid and effective rescue. After the event, post hoc analyses of failures, and implementation of corrective actions will reduce the risk of accidental hypothermia in future disasters.

The use of airborne Lidar data to analyze flood disaster area: case study of Sekarbela Subdistrict, Mataram

Lidar is a remote sensing technology that is developing and widely used today. This data has the advantage of having a very high spatial accuracy so that it is very supportive of mapping with detailed accuracy. There are various benefits of lidar data, one of which is for risk analysis of natural disasters. The purpose of this study is to use lidar data to analyze flood disasters in an area. The method uses information derived from the Lidar data, namely the Digital Surface Model (DSM) and the Digital Terrain Model (DTM), which results from ground and non-ground classification. From this data, topographical analysis is carried out, especially the river flow area and its influence on the surrounding area. The research location is the City of Mataram, Lombok, Indonesia. This location is a coastal area and the location through which the river flows into the sea. The results of the analysis of this study were compared with data on flood disasters that had occurred in that location as comparative data. The results showed that the analysis using Lidar data has excellent topographic accuracy as an approach in the analysis of flood disasters towards an area.

Analysis of the Disaster Risk Assessment for Urban Declining Areas by Applying Weights of Risk Indicators : Focused on Heavy Rainfall and Snow

Purpose: Declining cities are vulnerable to disasters due to a decrease in population, a decrease in the number of businesses, and the aging of buildings. Residents of declining areas are susceptible to disaster risks, and from an urban planning perspective, it is necessary to identify various disaster risks before establishing regeneration plans for declining areas in various cities. Thus, this paper aims to analyze the risk of disasters in small-scale declining areas in cities that reflect the weights for each disaster risk indicator. Method: This study calculates disaster risk according to the IPCC disaster risk assessment framework. Based on field surveys and spatial statistics, the collected data are integrated into the grid according to the small-scale declining area to classify the grades and obtain risk scores. Next, after evaluating the importance of each risk indicator through expert advice, the disaster risk is analyzed by assigning weights using AHP analysis. In the developed model, a disaster risk analysis was conducted using weights for each disaster risk factor. Result: As a result, the quantified evaluation results were displayed in a 10 m grid for each city. The results of considering the weights for each risk indicator were obtained, and the risk of heavy rainfall and snow disasters specific to each region were obtained. It is expected to use the developed methods in this study as a disaster risk analysis for a small declining area in a city.

Conceptual Framework for Disaster Management in Coastal Cities Using Climate Change Resilience and Coping Ability

Global warming and environmental changes have resulted in more frequent and extreme weather events, as well as larger-scale disasters around the world. This study presents a disaster risk analysis in Taiwan coastal area using the Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) and examines the strategies adopted by the coastal residents of Taiwan, through a new concept of “copability” analysis. Based on the results, the majority of the coastal regions fall under the medium-to-low resilient category with the south-western and northern coast of Taiwan as the most high-risk regions posing a high risk to millions of people facing climatic disasters in the future. The coping mechanisms used by local residents are also influenced by the socioeconomic status of the decision-makers as well as the synchronization of disasters. Based on the findings, a 4R management package is developed in which the copability and resilience management strategy are squeezed into four main sectors of resource, reason, roadmap, and respond to work towards a more coordinated management and use of natural resources across sectors and scales. It is advised that all governmental, private, and community actors implement coherent climate risk management measures, accompanied by mitigation initiatives, in order to establish a sustainable level of climate resilience in cities.

Disaster Risk Analysis of Merapi Volcano Eruption in Cangkringan District Sleman Regency

AbstrakCangkringan is located in the Merapi Volcano Disaster Prone Areas which has the potential to be affected by eruption. The eruption of Merapi Volcano is a consequence that must be faced by the local resident, so that the need for disaster risk analysis in the region through research is a must. This disaster risk analysis research aims to (1) Analyze the risk level of Merapi Volcano eruption in Cangkringan. (2) Analyze the risk distribution of Merapi Volcano eruption in Cangkringan.This research is a descriptive research with a quantitative approach conducted in Cangkringan District, Sleman Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta. The population in this study is the entire village in Cangkringan. The entire area is the subject of this research. The variables of this reseach are hazard, vulnerability and capacity. This study used primary data and secondary data. Data collection techniques used are observation, interviews, and documentation. Data analysis techniques used are scoring, overlay and descriptive.The results of this study indicate: (1) The level of risk of Merapi Volcano Eruption in Cangkringan is divided into four levels which are high, medium, low and very low. The area of Cangkringan has a high level of risk covering an area of 19,00% of the total area, the medium-risk level is 38,38% of the total area, the low-risk level is 16,61% of the total area, the very low-risk level is 20,23% of the total area of Cangkringan District. The higher the level of disaster risk, the greater the potential loss due to the eruption of Merapi Volcano. (2) The distribution of disaster risk of Merapi Volcano Eruption in Cangkringan is in the entire village. The distribution of high-risk level is in part of Umbulharjo Village, part of Glagaharjo Village and part of Argomulyo Village. The distribution of medium-risk level is in part of Umbulharjo Village, part of Kepuharjo Village and part of Glagaharjo Village. The distribution of low-risk level is in part of Kepuharjo Village, part of Wukirsari Village and part of Argomulyo Village. The distribution of very low-risk level is in part of Wukirsari Village and part of Argomulyo Village.

Social resilience and welfare systems under COVID-19: A European comparative perspective

COVID-19 and the corresponding economic lockdown and income loss for large segments of population was something unexpected for all European countries, and their welfare systems were not prepared to protect their citizens from such threats. Social resilience is becoming used in disaster risk analysis, and preferred to that of vulnerability, to refer the ability of the social entities to respond to such challenges, enabling them to cope and adjust to adverse events. It has been more recently used in the context of the European Union (EU) about COVID-19, regarding the creation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, intended to mitigate the economic and social impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The global nature of this pandemic makes possible and relevant a deeper understanding of social resilience at different levels of analysis: international, national, local and individual/household levels. This article aims to contribute to this by proposing a set of indicators of social resilience in face of COVID-19, supported in a theoretical framework developed herein, and comparing the performance of a selection of EU countries with distinct welfare system configurations, with different roles played by the government, the market, the social organizations and the families. Using comparable statistical data at macro level and data concerning the responses of government to the economic and social effects of the pandemic, we produce a synthetic index of social resilience, combining resilience on coping and resilience on adapting. We relate the differences found in coping and adapting with the welfare system configurations of these countries.

Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale

AbstractUnited States tornado records form the basis for a variety of meteorological, climatological and disaster-risk analyses, but how reliable are they in light of changing standards for rating, as with the 2007 transition of Fujita (F) to Enhanced Fujita (EF) damage scales? To what extent are recorded tornado metrics subject to such influences that may be nonmeteorological in nature? While addressing these questions with utmost thoroughness is too large of a task for any one study, and may not be possible given the many variables and uncertainties involved, some variables that are recorded in large samples are ripe for new examination. We assess basic tornado-path characteristics—damage rating, length, width, and occurrence time, as well as some combined and derived measures—for a 24-yr period of constant path-width recording standard that also coincides with National Weather Service modernization and the WSR-88D deployment era. The middle of that period (in both time and approximate tornado counts) crosses the official switch from F to EF. At least minor shifts in all assessed path variables are associated directly with that change, contrary to the intent of EF implementation. Major and essentially stepwise expansion of tornadic path widths occurred immediately upon EF usage, and widths have expanded still further within the EF era. We also document lesser increases in path lengths, and in tornadoes rated at least EF1 compared to EF0. These apparently secular changes in the tornado data can impact research dependent on bulk tornado-path characteristics and damage-assessment results.

Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China

The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.