Analysis of the Disaster Risk Assessment for Urban Declining Areas by Applying Weights of Risk Indicators : Focused on Heavy Rainfall and Snow

Abstract

Purpose: Declining cities are vulnerable to disasters due to a decrease in population, a decrease in the number of businesses, and the aging of buildings. Residents of declining areas are susceptible to disaster risks, and from an urban planning perspective, it is necessary to identify various disaster risks before establishing regeneration plans for declining areas in various cities. Thus, this paper aims to analyze the risk of disasters in small-scale declining areas in cities that reflect the weights for each disaster risk indicator. Method: This study calculates disaster risk according to the IPCC disaster risk assessment framework. Based on field surveys and spatial statistics, the collected data are integrated into the grid according to the small-scale declining area to classify the grades and obtain risk scores. Next, after evaluating the importance of each risk indicator through expert advice, the disaster risk is analyzed by assigning weights using AHP analysis. In the developed model, a disaster risk analysis was conducted using weights for each disaster risk factor. Result: As a result, the quantified evaluation results were displayed in a 10 m grid for each city. The results of considering the weights for each risk indicator were obtained, and the risk of heavy rainfall and snow disasters specific to each region were obtained. It is expected to use the developed methods in this study as a disaster risk analysis for a small declining area in a city.