Disaggregation Analysis Research Articles

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity (T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA (T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.

Reply to “Comment on Sousa, M.L. and Costa, A.C., ‘ground-motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal’ ” by João F. B. D. Fonseca and Susana P. Vilanova

Reply to “Comment on Sousa, M.L. and Costa, A.C., ‘ground-motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal’ ” by João F. B. D. Fonseca and Susana P. Vilanova

Comment on Sousa, M. L. and Costa, A. C., “Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal”

Disaggregation of the seismic hazard has become a popular technique to convey information on the main sources contributing to the hazard at a particular site. Recently published work adopts geographic disaggregation analysis of seismic hazard as a tool to identify dominant rupture scenarios for municipalities in Mainland Portugal. The authors conclude that the seismic hazard in South and Central Portugal is dominated by the seismicity that takes place offshore, around 70km WSW of Cape S. Vicente, both for the return periods of 475 years and 975 years. Whilst recognizing the merits of the approach taken and the utility of the tools developed, we take issue with this last conclusion. We consider that the proposed disaggregation returns a picture of the biases in the hazard analysis, more than any real feature of the distribution of relevant seismogenic sources.

Seismic hazard assessment for the Itoiz dam site (Western Pyrenees, Spain)

This work summarises the seismic hazard analysis performed for the complete characterisation of strong ground-motion at the site of the Itoiz dam (Western Pyrenees, Spain). The hazard analysis includes the compilation of a composite catalogue from French and Spanish agencies, the definition of an original hybrid seismogenic source model (including zones and major faults) and the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Hazard results are provided as hazard curves and acceleration response spectra on rock for the 1000- and 5000-year return periods, which correspond respectively to the operating basis earthquake (OBE) and safety evaluation earthquake (SEE). The impact of truncating GMPEs at a number of standard deviations (epsilon) has been found not critical here for the return periods targeted. Subsequently, an analysis of the contribution of each source to total hazard and a hazard disaggregation analysis are performed in order to establish the earthquake-source parameters for both the OBE and SEE scenarios consistently with the seismotectonics of the region. The European Strong Motion database is then searched and a selection of records is proposed for each of the scenarios. Our results suggest that seismic hazard in the region is underestimated by the official Spanish seismic hazard map included in the current version of the code (NCSE-02), which is the reference document for the definition of seismic actions for dam projects in the whole Pyrenees.

Economic Impact of Port Activity: A Disaggregate Analysis - The Case of Antwerp

The economic impact of the port sector is usually measured at an aggregate level by indicators such as value added, employment and investment. This paper tries to define the economic relevance for the regional as well as for the national economy at a disaggregate level. It attempts to identify, quantify and locate the mutual relationships between the various port players themselves and between them and other Belgian industries. Due to a lack of information foreign trade is only tackled very briefly but the method outlined in this paper can be used to measure the national effects of changes in port activity at a detailed level. A sector analysis is made by compiling a regional (regional as geographically opposed to national, not to be mistaken for the Belgian Regions Brussels, Flanders and Wallonia) input-output table, resorting to microeconomic data: a bottom-up approach. The main customers and suppliers of the port's key players or stakeholders are identified. A geographical analysis can also be carried out by using data at a disaggregate level. Each customer or supplier can be located by means of their postcode. In so doing, the economic impact of the port is quantified, both functionally and geographically. In the case of the port of Antwerp, the results show important links between freight forwarders and agents. The geographical analysis suggests the existence of major agglomerating effects in and around the port of Antwerp, referred to as a major transhipment location point. Key words: port economics, regional input-output table, sector analysis, geographical analysis.

Exploring the trip chaining behaviour of public transport users in Melbourne

This paper explores trip chaining behaviour of Melbourne residents using evidence from a household travel survey. The research literature has suggested that trip-making behaviour has grown increasingly complex as modern life has become busier and people grow time-poor. Complex trip chains have been said to require flexible travel modes, and for this reason some research has suggested that public transport is limited in this regard compared to the private car. Results of this study show that between 1994 and 1999 the complexity of trip chains was relatively stable and the complexity of chains was found to be larger for rail and tram than for car-based trips. Disaggregate analyses compare the complexity of chains based on work versus non-work chains, the purpose of stops on the chain, and whether the chain entered the central city of Melbourne or not. Overall these findings suggest a less bleak outlook for public transport ridership in a travel future which is said to be becoming more complex.

Multicriteria sorting using a valued indifference relation under a preference disaggregation paradigm

Abstract Most multicriteria decision methods need the definition of a significant amount of preferential information from a decision agent. The preference disaggregation analysis paradigm infers the model’s parameter values from holistic judgments provided by a decision agent. Here, a new method for inferring the parameters of a fuzzy outranking model for multicriteria sorting is proposed. This approach allows us to use most of the preferential information contained in a reference set. The central idea is to characterize the quality of the model by measuring discrepancies and concordances amongst (i) the preference relations derived from the outranking model, and (ii) the preferential information contained in the reference set. The model’s parameters are inferred from a multiobjective optimization problem, according to some additional preferential information from a decision agent. Once the model has been fitted, sorting decisions about new objects are performed by using a fuzzy indifference relation. This proposal performs very well in some examples.

Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

Probabilistic seismic hazard for Mainland Portugal was re-evaluated in order to perform its disaggregation. Seismic hazard was disaggregated considering different spaces of random variables, namely, univariate conditional hazard distributions of M (magnitude), R (source-to-site distance) and e (deviation of ground motion to the median value predicted by an attenuation model), bivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R and X–Y (seismic source latitude and longitude) or multivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R–e and M–(X–Y)–e. The main objective of the present work was achieved, as it was possible, based on the modal values of the above mentioned distributions, to characterize the scenarios that dominate some seismic hazard levels of the 278 Mainland Portuguese counties. In addition, results of 4D disaggregation analysis, in M–(X–Y)–e, pointed out the existence of one geographic location shared by the dominant scenario of most analyzed counties, especially for hazard levels correspondent to high return periods. Those dominant scenarios are located offshore at a distance of approximately 70 km WSW of S. Vicente cape. On the other hand, the lower the return period the higher is the number of modal scenarios in the neighbourhood of the analyzed site. One may conclude that modal scenarios reproduce hazard target values in each site with great accuracy enabling the applications derived from those scenarios (e.g. loss evaluation) to be associated to a hazard level exceedance probability.

Measuring the Contribution of Intangibles to Productivity Growth: A Disaggregate Analysis of Japanese Firms

In this study we examined Japanese firm-level data to test whether increments in intangible assets will leads to differences in productivity growth. Our results show that the marginal contribution of inputs varies a greatly among sectors, industries and depending on firm's size. Therefore, marginal increments in intangibles investments are not always associated with productivity growth suggesting that when intangibles exceed a threshold, additional investments could be inefficient. We conclude that among intangibles, firm-specific organizational capital and advertising are two of the critical factors in determining the productivity growth.

New policy regime and productivity of Indian manufacturing: a disaggregative analysis

This study tries to examine the impact of economic reforms initiated in 1991 on the growth and adjustment process of organised manufacturing sector of India by analysing the trends in value added, labour and capital and also trends in partial and total factor productivity for Indian manufacturing for 51 three-digit industries for the period from 1980-1981 to 2002-2003. Further, the analysis has also been done for the two sub-periods, period I, pre-reform period from 1980-1981 to 1990-1991, and period II, from 1991-1992 to 2002-2003, i.e., the post-reform period, to view the changes in output growth, factor inputs for partial factor productivity and total factor productivity. The comparative picture of pre-liberalisation and post-liberalisation period depicts a slower growth of manufacturing sector of India in the latter period.

3P-027 蛍光相関分光法および蛍光寿命イメージング顕微鏡を用いた変異型SOD1の凝集体形成と脱凝集機構の解析(蛋白質・物性(3),第46回日本生物物理学会年会)

3P-027 蛍光相関分光法および蛍光寿命イメージング顕微鏡を用いた変異型SOD1の凝集体形成と脱凝集機構の解析(蛋白質・物性(3),第46回日本生物物理学会年会)

From regional seismic hazard to “scenario earthquakes” for seismic microzoning: A new methodological tool for the Celano Project

We present the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and disaggregation analysis aimed to understand the dominant magnitudes and source-to-site distances of earthquakes that control the hazard at the Celano site in the Abruzzo region of central Italy. Firstly, we calculated a peak ground acceleration map for the central Apennines area, by using a model of seismogenic sources defined on geological-structural basis. The source model definition and the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation at the regional scale (central Apennines) were obtained using three different seismicity models (Gutenberg–Richter model; characteristic earthquake model; hybrid model), consistent with the available seismological information. Moreover, a simplified time-dependent hypothesis has been introduced, computing the conditional probability of earthquakes occurrence by Brownian passage time distributions. Subsequently, we carried out the disaggregation analysis, with a modified version of the SEISRISK III code, in order to separate the contribution of each source to the total hazard. The results show the percentage contribution to the Celano hazard of the various seismogenic sources, for different expected peak ground acceleration classes. The analysis was differentiated for close (distance from Celano <20 km) and distant (distance from Celano >20 km) seismogenic sources. We propose three different “scenario earthquakes”, useful for the site condition studies and for the seismic microzoning study: (1) large ( M=6.6) local (Celano-epicentre distance ∼16 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of ∼590 years; (2) moderate ( M=5.5) local (Celano-epicentre distance ∼7.5 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of ∼500 years; and (3) large ( M=6.6) distant (Celano-epicentre distance ∼24 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of ∼980 years. The probabilistic and time-dependent approach to the definition of the “scenario earthquakes” changes clearly the results in comparison to traditional deterministic analysis, with effects in terms of engineering design and seismic risk reduction.

A Disaggregate Analysis of Profit Rates in Turkish Manufacturing

This study analyzes profit rate trends in Turkish manufacturing at the subsectoral level during the period from 1970 to 2000. Previous studies provide profit rates only at the aggregate level due to a lack of subsectoral capital stock data availability. Generating capital stock series, the author calculates the profit rates for selected subsectors. Applying Weisskopf's method, changes in the profit rate are decomposed, and evidence is found for a rising significance of conflict-based factors over “environmental” factors.

Regularized estimation for preference disaggregation in multiple criteria decision making

Disaggregation methods have been extensively used in multiple criteria decision making to infer preferential information from reference examples, using linear programming techniques. This paper proposes simple extensions of existing formulations, based on the concept of regularization which has been introduced within the context of the statistical learning theory. The properties of the resulting new formulations are analyzed for both ranking and classification problems and experimental results are presented demonstrating the improved performance of the proposed formulations over the ones traditionally used in preference disaggregation analysis.

A Disaggregate Analysis of Ocean Carriers' Transit Time Performance

Abstract This study provides a disaggregate analysis of ocean carrier speed and reliability. The findings produce direct evidence that dramatic differences in carrier transit time and transit time reliability, also referred to collectively as transit time performance, prevail across major trade lanes. These results bring attention to transit time performance, which previous studies have shown to receive little attention from shippers, especially for ocean carrier selection. Differences in transit time performance impact not only shippers' carrier selection decisions, but also their development of effective international ocean transportation strategies. Liner ocean carriers can also use these results as a benchmark to judge how well they perform relative to the competition.

A Disaggregate Analysis of Ocean Carriers' Transit Time Performance

Abstract This study provides a disaggregate analysis of ocean carrier speed and reliability. The findings produce direct evidence that dramatic differences in carrier transit time and transit time reliability, also referred to collectively as transit time performance, prevail across major trade lanes. These results bring attention to transit time performance, which previous studies have shown to receive little attention from shippers, especially for ocean carrier selection. Differences in transit time performance impact not only shippers' carrier selection decisions, but also their development of effective international ocean transportation strategies. Liner ocean carriers can also use these results as a benchmark to judge how well they perform relative to the competition.

Impact of Public Transit on Employment Status: Disaggregate Analysis of Houston, Texas

The impact of public transit on employment status of individuals is analyzed. The role of public transportation in employment appears in two policy debates regarding the spatial mismatch hypothesis and the role of public or private mobility to help the unemployed to gain employment. However, research studies dealing with the two debates produced conflicting results, and the impact of public transit has not been fully accounted for in explaining employment outcomes. A study was done to disaggregate analysis to explain employment status of individuals in the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area as a function of the access to public transit, job accessibility by transit, and household car ownership. The results of the study indicate that job accessibility by public transit has significant impacts on employment levels. However, it is questionable if improving physical access to public transit can significantly help the poor, although it may be effective for enhancing the employment levels of individuals with regular access to private vehicles. Although private mobility also appears significant for improving employment status of the economically disadvantaged, job accessibility by public transit has a stronger effect in increasing the levels of employment than private vehicles. The study defies the contention that public transit is helpless for the underprivileged of the society. Therefore, it is important to continue policy efforts in progress to improve regional public transit service.

Evaluation of Combined Traffic Impacts of Time-of-Day Pricing Program and E-ZPass Usage on New Jersey Turnpike

The traffic impacts of two stages of the New Jersey Turnpike (NJTPK) time-of-day pricing program are studied. The annual and daily traffic trends indicate that demand has continued to increase, exhibiting a similar behavior before and after the time-of-day pricing initiative. Combined with NJTPK traveler survey analysis, the findings demonstrate a statistically insignificant shift to other modes and routes after the time-of-day pricing initiative. Traffic impact analysis on the basis of aggregate data shows a slight shift to off-peak periods after the first stage and to peak periods after the second stage. However, because of a lack of detailed traffic and travel time data, reliable conclusions cannot be drawn from this aggregate analysis. Disaggregate analysis is then conducted, using traffic and travel time information for each origin-destination (O-D) pair of NJTPK between October 2002 and March 2003, 3 months before and 3 months after the initiation of the second stage. Findings show 53% of E-ZPass us...

Evaluation of Combined Traffic Impacts of Time-of-Day Pricing Program and E-ZPass Usage on New Jersey Turnpike

The traffic impacts of two stages of the New Jersey Turnpike (NJTPK) time-of-day pricing program are studied. The annual and daily traffic trends indicate that demand has continued to increase, exhibiting a similar behavior before and after the time-of-day pricing initiative. Combined with NJTPK traveler survey analysis, the findings demonstrate a statistically insignificant shift to other modes and routes after the time-of-day pricing initiative. Traffic impact analysis on the basis of aggregate data shows a slight shift to off-peak periods after the first stage and to peak periods after the second stage. However, because of a lack of detailed traffic and travel time data, reliable conclusions cannot be drawn from this aggregate analysis. Disaggregate analysis is then conducted, using traffic and travel time information for each origin–destination (O-D) pair of NJTPK between October 2002 and March 2003, 3 months before and 3 months after the initiation of the second stage. Findings show 53% of E-ZPass users preferred peak periods with lower travel times and higher tolls instead of peak shoulders with higher travel times but lower tolls. For most of the highly used O-D pairs, E-ZPass traffic at periods with the highest travel time has decreased after the second stage of the time-of-day pricing program. However, this reduction is statistically insignificant. Given the small price differential between peak and off-peak periods, it is likely that NJTPK E-ZPass users are trying to avoid congestion rather than slightly higher tolls. The results are assessed, and the findings are compared with those of similar studies.

Developing sorting models using preference disaggregation analysis: An experimental investigation

Within the field of multicriteria decision aid, sorting refers to the assignment of a set of alternatives into predefined homogenous groups defined in an ordinal way. The real-world applications of this type of problem extend to a wide range of decision-making fields. Preference disaggregation analysis provides the framework for developing sorting models through the analysis of the global judgment of the decision-maker using mathematical programming techniques. However, the automatic elicitation of preferential information through the preference disaggregation analysis raises several issues regarding the impact of the parameters involved in the model development process on the performance and the stability of the developed models. The objective of this paper is to shed light on this issue. For this purpose the UTADIS preference disaggregation sorting method (UTilités Additives DIScriminantes) is considered. The conducted analysis is based on an extensive Monte Carlo simulation and useful findings are obtained on the aforementioned issues.