Direct Rebound Effect Research Articles

The direct energy rebound effects for manufacturing and service sectors in China: Evidence from firm-level estimations

China has implemented a variety of energy efficiency policies to achieve energy saving and carbon abatement targets. While the national carbon market has been launched and China has opted to give market-oriented policies a greater role in achieving net zero, energy efficiency policies still constitute a significant portion of the policy mix. However, the substantial drawback of energy efficiency policies compared to carbon trading, the rebound effect, has made energy efficiency policies debatable. It is crucial to precisely understand the magnitude of the rebound effect to design and implement effective energy policies. Our study estimates and compares the direct energy rebound and output expansion effects in China's manufacturing and service sectors using firm-level data from 2013 to 2016 and employing panel regression analysis. We also analyze the impact of firm characteristics such as ownership status, geographical location, and industry type on enterprises' rebound effects. We found a 33.5% direct rebound effect and a 19.3% output expansion effect in the manufacturing sector. In the service sector, the direct energy rebound effect was 57.9%, a larger one than the manufacturing sector. We also estimate direct energy rebound effects for key manufacturing and service enterprises. Our findings reveal that key manufacturing enterprises exhibit a larger rebound effect compared to the overall manufacturing sector, while key service enterprises show a smaller rebound effect than the overall service sector. Public, foreign, and heavy service enterprises show a smaller energy rebound effect, while northeastern manufacturing and service enterprises exhibit a larger rebound effect. We suggest that China's carbon market should also cover key service enterprises. For those below the threshold, enhancing energy management is essential to mitigate the rebound effect. Aligning with carbon emission cap targets, rather than relying solely on energy efficiency policies, could more effectively achieve energy savings and carbon abatement.

Energetic sustainability in the Amazon region: Exploring impacts, environmental solutions, and rebound effect analysis

The Amazon, a vital global ecosystem, renowned for biodiversity and climate regulation, faces unprecedented challenges due to escalating non-renewable energy consumption. This article sheds light on climate change's implications, exploring the intricate interplay in Amazon sustainability. The focus is on comprehending the impacts and exploring potential solutions to mitigate adverse effects. The research spans from 2002 to 2022, covering countries such as Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, and Ecuador. This broad geographic and temporal scope provides valuable insights into the dynamic changes occurring in the Amazon region over the years. Employing a robust methodological approach, double log regression analysis is utilized as a powerful tool for a precise examination of the complex relationships between energy consumption, environmental preservation, and sustainable development. The study incorporates various estimators, including Non-Renewable Energy (EnR), Forest Area (FA), Forest Income (FI), Endangered Mammals (EM), Endangered Birds (EB), Endangered Fish (EF), Endangered Plants (EP), Freshwater Capitation (FC), Greenhouse Gases (GHG), Socioeconomic Factors (SF), Water Availability (WA). This comprehensive list enhances clarity and transparency, ensuring a thorough understanding of the research methods. The study uncovers the wide-ranging impact of growing non-renewable energy demand on Amazon biodiversity, forests, and species vulnerability, driven by direct rebound effects. It highlights both the backfire and super conservation effects, emphasizing the need for strategic, holistic approaches to energy and environmental management. Navigating this balance, the research informs decisions for a sustainable Amazon future, fostering awareness and inspiring action toward environmental stewardship and global conservation.

US gasoline response to vehicle fuel efficiency: A contribution to the direct rebound effect

This study measures the response of gasoline consumption to improved vehicle fuel efficiency (miles per gallon). Although an inverse relationship exists, the percentage decline is always less than the percentage efficiency improvement. As usually measured by past researchers, the long-run response in this study is approximately 80% of the efficiency improvement. The remaining 20% is the direct rebound effect and comports well with previous estimates. However, this rebound estimate escalates to 40–50% if horsepower or vehicle size are controlled. Even larger estimates (about 70%) are possible if carmakers change both fuel efficiency and horsepower when required to meet energy efficiency standards. Larger rebound effects are also possible when VFE improvements also reduce gasoline prices, but these price reductions may also improve welfare.

Closing the Efficiency Gap: Insights into curbing the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia

The rebound effect refers to the phenomenon where energy efficiency improvements lead to increased energy consumption, offsetting some of the expected energy savings. This article aims to estimate the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia and explores potential solutions to mitigate its impact. Understanding the magnitude of the rebound effect is crucial for policymakers to develop effective energy conservation strategies. This study employs a time-series modeling approach, using a dataset covering 31 years, 1990–2021, and four regions within Saudi Arabia, incorporating various socioeconomic and energy-related variables. The magnitude of the rebound effect in residential electricity consumption in the Kingdom, which varies across regions, ranges from 41% to 71%. Since the inception of the first wave of the energy price reform in 2016, the Kingdom has witnessed a power consumption rebound in the residential sector totaling 39.02 TWh (6.5 Twh per annum), and a total of 28.13 Mt. in CO2 equivalent emissions (4.69 Mt. in CO2 equivalent per annum) during the period of 2016–2021. These findings add to the existing literature on the rebound effect, further enriching our understanding of this complex phenomenon and its implications. They also provide valuable insights for policymakers and energy planners in Saudi Arabia, helping them develop effective strategies to minimize the rebound effect and promote energy conservation.

Estimating the direct rebound effect for residential electricity use in seventeen European countries: Short and long-run perspectives

The energy saved by improving the building efficiency of European households may not be as much as expected due to a rebound effect. Based on Eurostat and World Bank annual panel data covering the period 1996–2020, this article develops dynamic panel approaches, a generalized method of moments, and first-difference specifications, to investigate the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in selected European countries. Instrumental variable techniques are used to tackle the reverse causality of the electricity price in a demand model. Estimates of the direct rebound effect in residential electricity use are 18% in the short-run and 43% in the long-run. Our findings reject the hypothesis of a backfire effect in residential electricity demand. They have important implications for policy makers, suggesting the need for smart policies that consider energy consumption behaviors and decision-making processes among various households.

Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration-exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects.

Higher levels of economic activity are often accompanied by higher energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80% of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus to climate change. Under the assumption of sufficiently elastic demand, this reality of global economic development based on permanent growth of economic activity, brings into play the Jevons Paradox, which hypothesises that increases in the efficiency of resource use leads to increases in resource consumption. Previous research on the rebound effects has limitations, including a lack of studies on the connection between reinforcement learning and environmental consequences. This paper develops a mathematical model and computer simulator to study the effects of micro-level exploration-exploitation strategies on efficiency, consumption and sustainability, considering different levels of direct and indirect rebound effects. Our model shows how optimal exploration-exploitation strategies for increasing efficiency can lead to unsustainable development patterns if they are not accompanied by demand reduction measures, which are essential for mitigating climate change. Moreover, our paper speaks to the broader issue of efficiency traps by highlighting how indirect rebound effects not only affect primary energy (PE) consumption and GHG emissions, but also resource consumption in other domains. By linking these issues together, our study sheds light on the complexities and interdependencies involved in achieving sustainable development goals. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Exploring the direct rebound effects for residential electricity demand in urban environments: evidence from Nice

Exploring the direct rebound effects for residential electricity demand in urban environments: evidence from Nice

Rebound Effect of Residential Space Heating: The Case of Ankara

The direct rebound effect for space heating targeting households in Ankara, Turkey, is calculated by using primary and socio-economic indicators related data for energy efficiency applications in buildings. The demographic, dwelling characteristics, and behavioral factors that affect gas consumption are included in the analyses and are found to be crucial to assuring the successful implementation of energy efficiency technology in space heating.

Rebound effects following technological advancement? The case of a global shock in ferrochrome supply

Novel recycling technologies aim at increasing material efficiency by turning former waste products into valuable reclaimed resources. A key question is whether such technologies really reduce primary resource consumption or instead stimulate aggregated market demand. In this study the consequences of a positive shock in ferrochrome supply to the global stainless steel value chain is assessed quantitatively. This new source might be unlocked by technology under development for the recovery of chromium from carbon and stainless steel slags. The aim of this study is to quantitatively assess the income and substitution effects of reclaimed ferrochrome along a part of the stainless steel value chain. The impact of the supply shock is analysed by means of a vector autoregression (VAR), a dynamic model where lagged values of all included variables estimate current state of the system. Additionally, the VAR model is extended to a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) to account for contemporary effects as well. Both the VAR and SVAR model indicate that additional ferrochrome supply leads to an increase in aggregated supply of stainless steel, in combination with a substitution effect between ferrochrome and nickel. The extended SVAR model additionally highlights that contemporaneous effects do play an important role as well to capture the direct rebound effect in the ferrochrome market when working with quarterly data. In other words, an additional supply of reclaimed ferrochrome triggers a complex combination of interactions and consequences, yet it does not necessarily lead to a lower overall material consumption. The main contributions of this paper are the assessment of direct rebound effects of supplying reclaimed metals along the value chain and the demonstration that quantifying the effects of circular strategies is feasible.

Estimating long-term and short-term CO2 rebound effects of China’s urban residential sector: evidence from a dynamic econometric approach

This study quantifies China’s urban residential CO2 rebound owing to improvements in energy efficiency. We use a dynamic econometric model (error corrected linear approximated almost ideal demand system, ECM-LA-AIDS) to examine the relationship between energy-efficiency promotion, energy consumption behaviour, and the CO2 rebound effect. An improvement in energy efficiency lowers the energy price, resulting in unbalanced short- and long-term energy consumption behaviours. Inconsistent short- and long-term energy-efficiency policies may lead to greater rebound effects. Therefore, this study estimates the residential energy-related CO2 (ECR-CO2) rebound effects considering both short- and long-term consumption patterns to provide targeted policies for controlling residential ECR-CO2. The results indicate that the short- and long-term urban residential ECR-CO2 effects differ across regions and provinces. Additionally, the direct rebound effect contributes more to the total ECR-CO2 rebound effect than the indirect rebound effect. Finally, at the national level, the urban residential ECR-CO2 rebound effects exhibit a U-shaped divergence, indicating that, among the 31 Chinese provinces considered, the ECR-CO2 rebound effect first converges and then diverges, owing to differences in the levels of technological progress.

Impact of technological innovation on carbon emissions in China's logistics industry: Based on the rebound effect

Technological innovation is an important way to reduce carbon emissions in the logistics industry. Using panel data of the logistics industry in China's 30 provinces from 2002 to 2019, a dynamic spatial Durbin model was constructed to explore the impact of logistics technological innovation on carbon emissions, and determine whether there is a rebound effect. Furthermore, the rebound effect of logistics technological innovation was calculated, and its spatial-temporal characteristics were analyzed. It was found that there is a “U”-shaped relationship between logistics technological innovation and carbon emissions at the national and regional levels, which means that the impact of logistics technological innovation on carbon emissions has a rebound effect. Moreover, the spatial spillover of technological innovation strengthens the rebound effect, while the optimization of the energy structure weakens it. Further calculation showed that the average spatial rebound effect is 60.61%, which is 22.66% higher than the average direct rebound effect. The spatial rebound effect has obvious regional heterogeneity, with the highest in the central region, followed by the eastern region, and the lowest in the western region. For temporal variation, at the national level, the spatial rebound effect was successively shown as a backfire effect, partial rebound effect, super energy-saving effect, and partial rebound effect. Similarly, three regions fluctuate circularly in these rebound effects with different forms. Thus, the rebound effect can be alleviated through energy structure optimization, energy price marketization, and a regional collaborative development mechanism.

The direct rebound effect for two income groups: The case of Paraguay

We estimate the direct rebound effect (DRE) for all energy services requiring electricity for their provision in Paraguayan households. Using recent panel data from 2001 to 2017, we estimate the magnitude of the DRE at the province and municipality levels. Because we estimate the DRE through the own-price elasticity of electricity demand, we not only provide the first empirical evidence of the DRE for Paraguay, a developing country, but also update the study of Paraguay's residential electricity demand. Our findings suggest a positive DRE emerges after an improvement in energy efficiency, but the magnitude of the DRE does not completely reduce the resulting energy savings. We find a lower DRE in low-income households, which may be explained by two factors: electricity is not the main source of energy for most low-income households, and most clandestine electricity connections are from low-income households. Paraguay is one of the countries with the highest generation of electricity per capita through hydroelectric plants. However, this electricity supply does not match electricity consumption, especially in low-income households, because of distribution issues in relation to energy sources. We derive from our findings some policy measures to improve the situation.

Do household energy services affect each other directly? The direct rebound effect of household electricity consumption in Spain

We estimate the magnitude of the direct rebound effect (DRE) of households’ electricity consumption in Spain, through an econometric estimation method of panel data. The results indicate a DRE between 26 and 35% in the short run and around 36% in the long run. Moreover, we find a significant influence of other energy sources that appear to be complementary to electricity consumption according to our estimation. Hence, our results suggest that an improvement in the energy efficiency of an energy service may affect its own energy consumption as well as the energy consumption of other energy services. This would entail a new source of DRE.

Energy rebound effect of various industries in China: Based on hybrid energy input-output model

China's economy has developed rapidly relying on a large amount of production factors input. It has caused excessive consumption of fossil energy which led to a series of social problems. Although Chinese government adopted various measures to reduce energy use, the existence of the energy rebound effect affects the results of energy saving. Therefore, it is necessary to study and carry out the energy rebound effect of various industries in China. This paper works out ten hybrid energy input-output tables (value type) based on the ten input-output tables and energy consumption of the sub-sector from 1987 to 2012. Relying on the supply-driven Ghosh input-output model, this paper calculates the energy rebound effect of industries from 1987 to 2012 in China, and then analyzes the factors which may affect the energy rebound effect value. The results show that: The energy indirect rebound effect is much higher than direct energy rebound effect in most sectors; the higher energy efficiency, the lower direct energy rebound effect; the higher forward linkage degree of industry, the greater indirect rebound effect of energy.

Direct and economy-wide energy rebound effects in China's transportation sector: a comparative analysis.

Although the existing literature has evaluated the energy rebound effect (ERE) from various aspects, the estimates of different types of ERE obtained by different methods still deserve further discussion. For this reason, by analyzing the pros and cons of assessment methods, this study offers a comparison between the direct and economy-wide EREs based on China's transportation sector during the period of 2003-2019. Specifically, on the basis of the translog cost function, we use the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) method with seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to evaluate the sectoral direct ERE. Considering that the direct ERE estimation is limited by its strict assumptions, this article further assesses the sectoral ERE from a macro perspective. By constructing the dynamic two-stage panel function, the generalized method of moments (GMM) was adopted to estimate the sectoral economy-wide ERE. The empirical results demonstrate that first, capital and labor relative to energy are Morishima substitutes; second, the sectoral short-term economy-wide ERE in China was 71.60%, while the long-term economy-wide ERE was 32.00% during the study period; third, there are significant regional differences in the EREs of Chinese transportation industry both for the short and long term, and the east China demonstrated the highest sectoral economy-wide ERE.

Surplus food donation: Effectiveness, carbon footprint, and rebound effect

Surplus food redistribution can be a way to relieve co-existing food insecurity and food waste. The food waste hierarchy ranks surplus food donations for human consumption as the next best strategy, when food waste cannot be prevented. However, the effectiveness of food donation in terms of the amount consumed, or food donation as a food waste management measure have rarely been assessed. The few studies conducted to date report substantial environmental savings, but the results may be sensitive to assumptions regarding substituted food. Rebound effects are also not included, but are likely to offset environmental savings from food donation. Therefore, this study investigated the effectiveness, carbon footprint, and rebound effect of a food donation system run by a charity in Sweden, and compared the results with those of anaerobic digestion. Multiple analytical methods were used, including material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, questionnaire, and 24-hour dietary recall. In the life cycle assessment, carbon footprint of substituted products were credited to the overall results using a system expansion. In addition, direct and indirect rebound effects associated with re-spending of substitution-related monetary savings were included. The results revealed a complex but effective network aimed at salvaging as much of the redistributed food as possible, with 78% of redistributed food eaten, but there was also a substantial rebound effect, offsetting 51% of potential carbon emissions savings from food donation. Nonetheless, the net result of food donation was almost twice the climate benefit of anaerobic digestion (-0.40 vs. -0.22 kg CO2e/FU), supporting the food waste hierarchy.

Exploring carbon rebound effects in Chinese households’ consumption: A simulation analysis based on a multi-regional input–output framework

Improving energy efficiency is considered to be essential to carbon emission reduction. However, it may not be as effective as expected due to the rebound effect. This paper attempts to investigate the carbon rebound effects and rebound risks in households. For this purpose, a comprehensive analysis framework incorporating elastic estimates, environmentally extended multi-regional input–output model and re-spending model, were built. Three rebound risk indicators were then constructed, following which a simulation of direct and indirect carbon rebound effects was conducted for urban households in China. By comparing the estimation results of the four re-spending scenarios, we found these households’ carbon rebound effect to be significant. The empirical results further indicate significant differences in the rebound risk among different provinces. Overall, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia are the provinces most vulnerable to the rebound effect. These findings point to the necessity of the government adopting other measures besides energy efficiency policies, with regional differences taken into account, in order to curb the carbon rebound effect.

The direct CO2 rebound effect in households: Evidence from China's provinces

Investing in energy efficiency is considered to be an effective way to reduce the carbon emissions. However, the resulting CO2 savings may be partially or totally offset by the rebound effect (RE). This paper goes beyond the traditional energy RE to investigate the rebound effect as related to CO2 emissions, aims to explore the direct CO2 rebound effect (CRE) in urban households at the provincial level. To achieve the objective, this study uses IPCC carbon emissions accounting method, then proposes an elasticity approach and constructs an individual fixed-effect variable coefficient panel data model. The results show that the total CO2 emissions from household energy consumption were rising in most provinces during 2002–2017. The purchased electricity and heat CO2 emissions are growing faster than combustion CO2 emissions. Regarding the magnitude of the CRE, there are three types of direct CRE among urban households in China: the backfire effect, partial rebound effect and super conservation effect. Overall, the average direct CRE in urban households is 59.90%; specifically, the western region has the highest direct CRE (90.92%), compared with the eastern region (52.84%) and central region (24.88%). The government should take into account the CRE of households, in order to avoid overestimating the carbon reduction. Attention should also be paid to the differences between provinces when formulating energy policies. The analysis above helps local governments to formulate effective energy policies to promote households’ carbon emission reduction.

A theoretical analysis of the energy rebound effects of private consumers

The research uses microeconomic theory and consumer theory to analytically test the theoretical basis of the indirect rebound effect caused due to upsurge in the energy efficiency of consumers from the private sector. It also explains how to use the carbon dioxide emissions reflected in the life cycle assessment to forecast and describes the indirect rebound effect of carbon dioxide emissions measured by the household sector. In addition, the thesis also empirically benefits the research studies focused on the rebound effect as it stimulates the policy scenarios and BAU in an estimated common equilibrium framework. According to the theoretical studies, there are different elasticities for the firm and household that determine the extent of the rebound effect and these determinants vary as the policy standards turn further stringent. Moreover, it is also shown that each of these policy scenarios exerts a much large rebound effect that outspreads throughout the economy, reaching up to half of the entire economy being measured by the life cycle of greenhouse emissions. Though more direct rebound effects are generated from the stringent fuel efficiency standard which is measured in terms of the higher percentage than the medium and lenient standards but still more decrease in the carbon emissions is attributed to the stringent policy that is measured in terms of the physical units.