Direct Deterrence Research Articles

To study abroad or not, and why? Exploring Chinese university students’ postgraduate intentions

ABSTRACT Since 1991, the annual population of Chinese students studying abroad has increased dramatically, peaking at 703,500 in 2019. This study explores who they are and why they intend to study abroad, using university student survey data collected in 2018 from two major universities in a southwestern city in China. Bivariate analysis and multinomial logistical regression analysis were conducted to examine the family and personal factors influencing their intentions to study abroad, followed by non-parametric tests for identifying the primary reasons motivating them to study abroad or inhibiting such intention. It was found that although economic capital shows significant influence, intellectual capital, at both family and personal levels, has the strongest effect on Chinese university students’ intentions to study abroad. Furthermore, being able to accumulate/upgrade intellectual capital is the primary reason for them to consider studying abroad and selecting the destination, whereas the lack of sufficient financial support is a direct deterrent on pursuing international education. Additionally, gender difference matters on intention to study abroad.

Infeasible Punishment and Noneffective Threats: Political Feasibility of Nuclear Punishment and Policy Choices after Direct Nuclear Deterrence Failure

Direct nuclear deterrence should provide significant stability considering the defender's capability to inflict enormous costs on the challenger and its high level of resolve to protect its territory and people. In the past, however, nuclear powers' deterrence strategy to prevent adversaries from escalating a crisis has failed. We argue that to manage deterrence failure crises, nuclear weapons would not matter much until the crisis actors overcome the inherent political difficulties in following through on the threat of nuclear punishment. If a defender passes this bar, then it would escalate the crisis after the deterrence failure. Conversely, if the challenger possesses high political feasibility to follow through on a threat of nuclear use, then the crisis will be terminated less violently as most defenders will view nuclear escalation as more likely and decide to compromise. We identify a total of 156 cases of direct deterrence failure after 1947 from the International Crisis Behavior Data data set. Then, using ordered logistic regression analysis, we find evidence for this feasibility of punishment hypothesis.

The purchase intention of electric vehicles in Hong Kong, a high-density Asian context, and main differences from a Nordic context

In this paper, we aim to examine people's EV purchase intention in Hong Kong, an Asian compact city, and how the influential factors are different from the Western context, for which a low-density Nordic context, Denmark, was chosen. To achieve this, we conducted a survey in Hong Kong to understand the effects of several key factors, including subjective norms, personal norms, and perceptions and knowledge about EVs. Structural equation modelling was employed and multi-group analysis was conducted. Our findings show that EV purchase intentions in Hong Kong are highly value-driven with the assimilation to social expectations directly and strongly encouraging individuals' EV acceptance, which is different from the European case where the adoption desire is built upon the assessment of usage difficulty. In addition, range anxiety poses a direct deterrence to EV adoption even in the compact city. Availability of charging opportunities, be it the public ones or home-based ones, plays a critical role in an individual's decision of EV adoption in the high-density city. Our study reveals a strong disparity in the pathways towards EV adoption between the Asian and the Nordic contexts, thereby illustrating the necessity to differentiate e-mobility promotion policies in compact cities from low-density cities.

Anti-opposition crackdowns and protest: the case of Belarus, 2000–2019

ABSTRACT Anti-opposition crackdowns are a complex form of repression, the effects of which reverberate beyond the political opposition. To understand how these episodes are tied to variation in protest, I develop a theory based on the case of the 2010-2011 crackdown in Belarus. Using a novel protest event dataset covering 2000 to 2019, I show that this crackdown was followed by a sharp decline in protest that particularly affected socio-economic protest. I identify six features of anti-opposition crackdowns and two channels through which they reduce protest. The direct deterrent effect diminishes the political opposition’s capacity to protest. Second, the visibility of the crackdown, coupled with new repressive laws, drives those engaged in less threatening collective action to pre-emptively demobilize; this is the indirect deterrent effect. This article contributes to our understanding of the mechanism that links repression and dissent, while enhancing our knowledge of protest and repression in Belarus.

The ineffectiveness of ‘observe and report’ patrols on crime

The deterrence effect of police on crime has been well established using modern quasi-experimental micro-econometric methods. Although the results from these studies uniformly suggest that police spending is cost justified, it is worth exploring whether police-like alternatives can deter crime even more cheaply. Unarmed private security personnel that conspicuously patrol a neighborhood have the potential to cheaply leverage the ability of police to be informed of crimes while also providing direct deterrence on their own. In the Fall of 2013, a neighborhood in Oakland, CA mounted a campaign to provide observe and report security patrols to augment the publicly provided policing in the area. While the initial effect of the additional security was a drop in crime, it quickly evaporated, calling into question the value of security forces that do not have the ability to apprehend criminals directly.

Can “Focused Deterrence” Produce More Effective Ethics Codes? An Experimental Study

The current study draws from the literature on “direct deterrence” programs as a framework for preventing corporate crime. Direct deterrence programs focus on reducing crime by communicating the likelihood and severity of sanctions to potential offenders. We believe a similar strategy may be useful when designing ethics codes. Ethics codes are the most commonly applied aspect of corporate internal compliance programs, yet evidence supporting their effectiveness is mixed and rigorous evaluation of their impact rare. Here, we employed an experimental design to examine how the content of ethics codes impact ethical decisions. Results suggest that the presence of an ethics code can increase compliance, but that supervisors also play a critical role. Implications for research and internal compliance programs are discussed.

Does the disclosure of gun ownership affect crime? Evidence from New York

While the social costs of gun violence are high, opponents of gun restrictions argue that gun ownership deters crime and creates a positive externality by increasing unobserved risk to criminals. This paper investigates the evidence for these two deterrence channels, exploiting the sudden disclosure of all handgun permit holders' names and addresses in two New York counties. Permit holders have more crime incidents at their homes relative to non-permit holders in the baseline, which is not driven by selection into neighborhoods. I find little evidence in favor of direct deterrence, and little evidence of peer deterrence. Instead, I find that victimization is associated with a higher likelihood of future gun ownership.

Deterring Cybercrime: Focus on Intermediaries

This Article discusses how governments, intellectual property owners, and technology companies use the law to disrupt access to intermediaries used by financially-motivated cybercriminals. Just like licit businesses, illicit firms rely on intermediaries to advertise, sell and deliver products, collect payments, and maintain a reputation. Recognizing these needs, law enforcers use the courts, administrative procedures, and self-regulatory frameworks to execute a deterrence by denial strategy. Enforcers of the law seize the financial rewards and infrastructures necessary for the operation of illicit firms to deter their presence. Policing illicit actors through their intermediaries raises due process and fairness concerns because service-providing companies may not be aware of the criminal activity, and because enforcement actions have consequences for consumers and other, licit firms. Yet, achieving direct deterrence by punishment suffers from jurisdictional and resource constraints, leaving enforcers with few other options for remedy. This Article integrates literature from the computer science and legal fields to explain enforcers' interventions, explore their efficacy, and evaluate the merits and demerits of enforcement efforts focused on the intermediaries used by financially-motivated cybercriminals.

How bonobo communities deal with tannin rich fruits: Re-ingestion and other feeding processes

This report describes bonobo (Pan paniscus, Hominidae) behavioral flexibility and inter-community differences with high tannin level fruit processing. In fruiting plants, tannin should discourage certain seed dispersers (direct deterrence hypothesis) such as primates. Based on data deriving from five study sites; LuiKotale, Lomako, Wamba, Malebo and Manzano, we compare consumption and dispersal of fruit species rich in tannins: Parinari and Musanga pulp was chewed across all communities probably for saliva tannin neutralisation. However, consumption of the fruits of Canarium schweinfurthii was observed in few communities only with differences in the food process: While bonobos of Wamba, Lomako and Manzano crunched and swallowed the pulp, bonobos of LuiKotale ingested entire fruits, extracted intact fruits from feces, and re-ingested their pulp, spitting the seed after a retention time of 24h in the digestive tract (i.e. endozoochory). We discuss potential functions of this peculiar feeding technique, likely to be a cultural behavior.

Editorial on the Significance of Endovascular Treatment in Coronary, Aorta, Pulmonary Vein Repairs

A 55 year female patient with history of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and past myocardial dead tissue (MI) displayed to the crisis office with intense coronary disorder. His past coronary occasion was a substandard MI which was treated with thrombolysis six years back inside 7 hours of onset. Catheterization around then uncovered abnormal right coronary vein beginning from the left valsalva sinus with direct proximal deterrent and the patient gotten restorative treatment. He had as of late played out a clinical assessment with an ordinary treadmill test and typical echocardiogram in another hospital. He introduced to the crisis bureau of a non every minute of every day essential PCI medicinal focus with intense onset (2 hours) of serious chest torment and diaphoresis. On confirmation he was on edge, his circulatory strain was 80/50 mmHg and he had typical heart and lung auscultation. His first electrocardiogram demonstrated an ectopic atrial musicality, second rate inert zone and ST rise in precordial leads V1-V3 (there were no past electrocardiogram tracings accessible for correlation). He was treated with IV hydration, acetylsalicylic corrosive 275 mg, clopidogrel 450 mg and thrombolysed with Tenecteplase 25 mg with change of fringe perfusion furthermore, pulse

Threats and Criminal Deterrence in Several Dimensions

This Article's claim is that deterrence in criminal law is composed of four oft-competing goals that ought to be taken into account when calibrating sanctions. Consider an offender, such as an armed robber or kidnapper, who threatens to commit a yet more serious crime unless the victim surrenders. The first goal, or dimension, of deterrence is to deter the threat, or crime in general, and this suggests a high sanction for the armed robbery or other threatening crime. A second goal is to deter escalation, in this case the execution of the threat once issued. This goal normally suggests a large gap between the sanctions for lesser and greater crimes, in order to discourage escalation. Given a natural or practical ceiling to criminal penalties, the suggested gap often implies relatively low sanction for the lesser crime, or threat, and some sacrifice of direct deterrence. Two other goals, or dimensions of deterrence, have been unrecognized by academic commentators and legislatures. By extending the analysis to include behavior by victims, it becomes apparent that law ought to make the offender’s threat incredible to victims. If the threat can be weakened, victims will be less inclined to submit, and then offenders will have less reason to threaten in the first place. This third dimension suggests a large gap between the sanctions for the lesser (threat) and greater (execution) crimes; if the gap is small, victims will recognize that the offender has little to lose from continuing on and executing his threat, and these victims will submit and make the criminal’s threat profitable, thereby encouraging yet more criminal activity. A fourth, equally novel, dimension of deterrence is the ability of law to make incredible the implicit promise by a threatener not to escalate if the victim submits. When this implicit promise is incredible, victims will again tend not to submit to the threat, and offenders will in turn issue fewer threats. To achieve this goal, the sanction for repeating a threat following submission by the victim should be low; victims will be less apt to submit to a threat if they realize that submission will often bring on another crime, or threat. The idea — which should be applied with caution — is familiar from blackmail; a victim who thinks the blackmailer will return for further payments will not pay the first time, and the blackmailer, in turn, will be discouraged.Optimal deterrence requires that criminal law should be attentive to the four dimensions described above. This Article presents a model for how law can do so and better accomplish its deterrent function.

Reconsidering the Independent Director System in China: A Silver Lining Amidst Weaknesses?

The independent director system in China has many weaknesses. Independent directors might not be truly independent, and they are not always equipped with the necessary information and expertise. The controlling shareholder ownership aggravates problems of the independent director system. Particularly, it is highly likely that the system based on rubber-stamp directors is used to justify corporate policies and transactions in favor of controlling shareholders. Nonetheless, independent directors in China can bring positive effects in society. Some of tainted proposals are screened out before corporate insiders submit to a formal board meeting, since independent directors sometimes raise objections during the informal session or private conversations (i.e., the “direct deterrence” of independent directors). Controlling shareholders, due to the concern of revealing negative information to a capital market and enforcement agencies, would not fully demand independent directors to approve egregious transactions (i.e., the “self-censorship” of a controlling shareholder). In this light, regulations on the business role of individuals with government/party or education experience should be carefully reviewed. On the one hand, these regulations can facilitate anti-corruption campaigns that the Chinese government currently pursues. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that alternative groups are more capable, independent, and ethical than the group with government/party or educational experience.

Understanding the Enforcement Strategy for Regulating the Listing Market of Hong Kong

This paper examines how Hong Kong regulators deploy their enforcement powers in order to regulate the listing market. As a former British colony, Hong Kong follows the enforcement style of the UK with regard to financial regulation where alternative mechanisms are used to substitute heavy reliance on formal sanctions to procure compliance. Nevertheless, it is argued that the enforcement strategy of Hong Kong regulators is also shaped by the need to overcome cross-border enforcement problems concerning Mainland Chinese companies which maintain a strong presence in the Hong Kong market. In response to difficulties in cross-border enforcement, Hong Kong regulators have resorted to a dynamic mix of different regulatory tools – formal sanctions and compliance-promoting measures, ex post enforcement actions and ex ante controls, direct deterrence and gatekeeper supervision – to try to achieve effective enforcement.

An obligation of conscience: gossip as social control in an eighteenth-century Flemish town

This article investigates how gossip developed as a tool of social control in eighteenth-century Kortrijk, an average-sized town in Flanders. Through gossip, people influenced others' behaviour, by performing social norms, by punishing violators of norms, by publicising the punishments of these deviants, and finally, by spreading information about improper behaviour, possibly leading to other sanctions. Previous research has insufficiently considered how the effects of gossip as social control were influenced by the historical situations in which it occurred. Most notably, the decline of honour and the formalisation of social control altered the ways in which people could effectively use the power of gossip, as in the second half of the eighteenth century, gossip was less a direct deterrent of deviant behaviour, but became more important in formal control settings.

Understanding the Enforcement Strategy for Regulating the Listing Market of Hong Kong

This paper examines how Hong Kong regulators deploy their enforcement powers in order to regulate the listing market. As a former British colony, Hong Kong follows the enforcement style of the UK with regard to financial regulation, where alternative mechanisms are used to substitute heavy reliance on formal sanctions to procure compliance. Nevertheless, it is argued that the enforcement strategy of Hong Kong regulators is also shaped by the need to overcome cross-border enforcement problems concerning mainland Chinese companies which maintain a strong presence in the Hong Kong market. In response to difficulties in cross-border enforcement, Hong Kong regulators have resorted to a dynamic mix of different regulatory tools—formal sanctions and compliance-promoting measures, ex post enforcement actions and ex ante controls, direct deterrence and gatekeeper supervision—to try to achieve effective enforcement.

Observer Effects of Punishment in a Distribution Network

In a distribution network, a punishment event not only affects the disciplined distributor but also changes the attitudes and behaviors of others in the network (i.e., observers). By moving beyond a dyadic view of punishment, this article considers the effects of punishment on observers and integrates insights from social learning, fairness heuristic, and social network theories. The resulting framework of the observer effects of punishment in a distribution network, empirically tested with a survey in China, reveals two mechanisms through which punishment leads to reduced observer opportunism: (1) a direct deterrence effect and (2) a trust-building process. Moreover, two information-related constructs moderate the observer effects differently. The disciplined distributor's relational embeddedness, which motivates greater information flow to observers, aggravates the problem of information asymmetry against the manufacturer, making punishment less deterrent for observers. In contrast, the manufacturer's monitoring capability, which reduces information asymmetry, strengthens observer effects. The authors discuss both theoretical and managerial implications of using punishment to achieve collaboration from a wide network of channel members.

High levels of vulnerability and anticipated stigma reduce the impetus for tuberculosis diagnosis in Cape Town, South Africa

Prolonged diagnostic and treatment delays, particularly in settings experiencing concomitant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, undermine global TB control efforts. Current TB control policy in South Africa, as organized through the National TB Control Programme (NTP), relies on the voluntary presentation of TB suspects to local clinics for diagnosis, i.e. passive case finding (PCF). In 2005 a participatory study suggested that popular interpretation and perception of TB within eight South African township sites in and around Cape Town, all carrying a high burden of HIV and undiagnosed TB, undermine PCF. Both people's association of TB with dirt and squalor, and the anticipation of HIV-related stigma, combine to impede TB diagnosis. Respondents conveyed TB as unavoidable; this perception is expressed in the context of vulnerability where so much-including dirt-is largely beyond the control of local residents. The lack of control has a disempowering effect, reducing the drive for seeking treatment. In addition, low confidence in patient confidentiality and anticipated HIV-related stigma act as direct deterrents to TB diagnosis and treatment. In conclusion, we wish to draw attention to high levels of disease stigma and vulnerability, and how these undermine PCF. Public health interventions that wish to improve case detection should aim to: (1) emphasize how early treatment improves outcome and can curb ongoing transmission; (2) combat a sense of communal vulnerability to TB; (3) address anticipated HIV-TB stigma; and (4) improve the quality of care provided at local diagnostic services, addressing low levels of patient confidentiality.

The deterrent effects of economic integration

Economic interdependence and international conflict studies have traditionally focused on the role of bilateral trade on direct deterrence, mostly omitting its indirect effects on third-party states. While scholars in the extended deterrence literature have examined the role of defender–target trade in deterring aggressors, most empirical research has remained limited to immediate deterrence and neglected general deterrence. This article synthesizes these literatures and goes beyond the dyad-level analysis in trade–conflict studies by focusing on the deterrent effects of trade. I claim that trade ties between the defender and target are not sufficient for extended general deterrence. This is mainly because international trade by itself is a poor indicator of the extent to which the target is an economically important friend of the defender, worth defending against aggressors. Empirical analysis of militarized disputes between rival states in the post-1945 period supports this point and shows that extended deterrence success is most likely in cases where the defender and target are economically integrated through regional trade institutions as well as conducting heavy trade. Economically minded defenders can successfully generate credible signals of resolve if they have institutional ties with their important trade partners.

A Longitudinal Examination of the Bidirectional Associations Among Perceived Parenting Behaviors, Adolescent Disclosure and Problem Behavior Across the High School Years

This longitudinal study investigated the importance of parental monitoring to the deterrence of adolescent problem behavior by examining bidirectional associations among perceived parental monitoring, adolescent disclosure and problem behaviors across the high school years. Adolescents (N = 2,941; 50.3% female) were surveyed each year from grades 9 through 12. There was a reciprocal association between problem behavior and parental knowledge, such that higher parental knowledge predicted reduced problem behavior over time and higher problem behavior in turn predicted lower parental knowledge. It was adolescent disclosure that predicted parental knowledge, however, rather than parental monitoring behaviors. Parental control was a direct deterrent of problem behavior over time, and time spent engaged in family fun activities demonstrated indirect links to problem behavior, particularly through parental control and adolescent disclosure. Importantly, these effects were invariant across grade. Overall, these findings suggest a "family-centered process", rather than primarily a youth-driven or parent-driven process, in the prediction of problem behavior.

The interaction between potential criminals' and victims' demands for guns

I develop a model with endogenous gun ownership and study the interaction between the demands for guns by heterogeneous potential offenders and victims. I show that the interaction depends on pervasiveness of guns, injury probabilities and, in particular, the impact of the gun on the probability of success against armed relative to unarmed adversaries. While the sanction on armed offense is maximal under plausible conditions, the sanction on unarmed offense balances direct deterrence benefits against marginal deterrence costs and corresponding net property losses. Optimal gun control policy disarms all offenders but allows the attractive potential victims to own guns. The paper also discusses the effects of enforcement and price controls on the demands for guns and welfare.