Diplomatic Strategy Research Articles

Nostalgic for Cold War realism

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Yardsticks for deterrence

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Allies and partners: the role of Japan

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Why Indo-Pacific deterrence matters

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

The Philippines, Australia and other partners

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Taiwan and its predicament

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Danger, hiding in plain sight

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Consistent America, inconstant America

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

She Speaks for Millions: The Emergence of Female Diplomatic Voices in the Russo-Ukrainian War

This research critically investigates the public diplomacy strategies deployed by a cohort of influential female European leaders on Twitter during the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-2023. The study comprises eight leaders - Kallas (Estonia), Marin (Finland), von der Leyen (President of the European Commission), Metsola (President of the European Parliament), Sandu (Moldova), Simonyte (Lithuania), Zourabichvili (Georgia), and Meloni (Italy) - representing millions of constituents. By mirroring the analytical attention given to Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this study scrutinizes the distinct approaches and differences in emotional, cognitive, and structural language use between these influential female figures and President Zelenskyy in their respective Twitter discourse during the crisis. By employing the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC)-22 dictionary, this research intends to uncover unique patterns and nuances in the language use of these leaders, thereby offering fresh insights into the gendered communication and diplomacy employed by the female cohort during conflicts. Keywords: Public diplomacy, Female leadership, Russo-Ukrainian War, Twitter communications, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC), Diplomacy, gendered communication

Diplomasi Ekonomi Indonesia dalam Meningkatkan Ekspor Produk Tekstil ke Australia melalui IA-CEPA Tahun 2020-2023

This research aims to analyze the economic diplomacy strategy carried out by Indonesia to export textile products, especially apparel, to Australia through the Indonesia Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (IA-CEPA) for 2020-2023. In this research, the method used is a descriptive method using interviews and literature study. The research results show that although the overall export trend shows positive results, there has been no significant change in exports of Indonesian textile products since IA-CEPA was implemented. This happens because there are still trade challenges both internal and external. The economic diplomacy carried out by the Indonesian Government is not only to overcome these challenges but also to encourage increased exports of Indonesian textile products to Australia. Economic diplomacy is analyzed based on Kishan S. Rana's theory which consists of four stages, namely economic salesmanship, networking, image building, and regulation management. Economic diplomacy is carried out through exhibitions, network expansion, information dissemination, promotions digital, and accelerated implementation of IA-CEPA with a memorandum of understanding and issuing Minister of Trade Regulation No. 36 of 2023 concerning Import Policies and Regulations to protect the domestic textile industry.

신라 하대의 쿠데타와 대외교섭

The late period of Silla was marked by frequent coups, reflecting the internal instability and political volatility within Silla society. These events played a crucial role in shifting the power dynamics and reshaping the political order within Silla. When successful, new monarchs would actively engage in foreign diplomacy, especially strengthening relations with the Tang, as part of their efforts to overcome political instability and secure international legitimacy. Such diplomatic activities were essential for elevating Silla's international standing and establishing the legitimacy of the new monarchy both domestically and internationally. For the kings who ascended to power through coups during the late Silla period, prioritizing relations with Tang, the major power of the time, was a critical strategy in the international political environment. Friendly relations with Tang provided Silla with political support and stability, contributing to overcoming internal instability caused by coups and securing recognition and support from the international community. The dispatch of envoys to Tang by the kings who ascended through coups right after their coronation can be seen as part of this strategy, revealing Silla's intention to emphasize its legitimacy internationally and to secure internal political stability through diplomatic relations. Specifically, the use of unconventional diplomatic strategies by Kings Seondeok and Heondeok, such as intentionally concealing the news of their accession, can be interpreted as an effort to overcome the legitimacy deficit caused by the coups. The prioritization of diplomacy with Tang by the monarchs of late Silla who came to power through coups was a pragmatic choice considering Silla's position in the international political environment. The close diplomatic relations with Tang brought political stability and international support to Silla, playing a significant role in overcoming the internal instability caused by the coups. This strategy indicates Silla's efforts to secure international legitimacy and overcome the political instability resulting from the coups. On the other hand, the lack of official diplomacy with Japan suggests that Silla did not see significant benefits in diplomatic relations with Japan at the time or placed more emphasis on its relations with Tang. This indicates that Silla's foreign policy was focused on securing its position and legitimacy in the international arena, primarily through its relationship with Tang, rather than establishing formal diplomatic ties with Japan.

The The implementation mechanism of military diplomacy (the republic of Azerbaijan as a case study)

Purpose: is to study the relationship between the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in formulating effective military diplomacy. Method: comparative analysis, and synthesis. Findings: Military capabilities and means have always been used in diplomacy. As a result, military potential plays an important role in supporting state diplomacy and creates conditions for ensuring the country's national interests. The formation of diplomatic strategy at the national level can be systematically implemented. In order to improve military diplomacy, a document on diplomatic policy (white paper) should be prepared. Currently, the Azerbaijani Army has a branch within the International Military Cooperation Department that coordinates the activities of military attachés, but this branch does not have the potential to carry out special tasks related to military diplomacy or prepare for long-term strategies. From this point of view, a Center for military diplomacy might be established at the base of that department, and one of the priority issues should be the formation of the potential to develop strategies that reflect the long-term perspectives of Azerbaijan's military diplomacy. Theoretical implications: There are many different approaches and theoretical lenses with which to study international relations and to make sense of events, trends and processes. Although such established theoretical lenses as realism, liberalism, constructivism, Marxism, feminism and others exist, neoclassical realism has been chosen as the means to make sense of this case study. Practical implications: Practitioners in the field of foreign relations will be able to understand the role of the military diplomacy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in ensuring national interests and they will be able to have a clear picture of the ways of its optimization and the factors influencing this role. Value: the study examines the role of the military diplomacy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in ensuring national interests and presents a clear picture of the ways of its optimization and the factors influencing this role. Paper type: theoretical.

The “Détente to Step Forward” Diplomatic Strategy and Efforts to Save Vietnam’s Fragile Peace from March 1946 to December 1946

The historical period 1945–1946 occupies a particularly prominent position in modern Vietnamese history. It was a period full of challenges for the Communist Party, the newly formed government of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, and the Vietnamese people. It was also a period with many historical events including the diplomatic struggle of the Government of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam to protect and strengthen the revolutionary government in the face of imperialist countries’ plot to monopolize Vietnam. The current study set out to describe the art of the diplomatic struggle of the Government of Vietnam and the Communist Party in the fight against the sabotage of the Preliminary Agreement of March 6, 1946, by Chiang Kai-shek’s army and his henchmen, and the violation of the same agreement by the French colonialists using historical research, logic, analysis, and listing. The diplomatic struggle was “firm in objectives, flexible in strategies and tactics.” Study findings on Vietnam’s revolutionary and modern diplomatic art revealed the plot of France and Chiang, and how the Vietnamese peacefully protected their territorial integrity and national sovereignty.

DIPLOMATIC STRATEGIES OF KING PRITHVI NARAYAN SHAH IN UNIFICATION OF NEPAL

This research investigates the essential role of diplomatic strategies in the growth of the Gorkha kingdom and the eventual consolidation of Nepal under the leadership of King Prithvi Narayan Shah. The study analyzes Prithvi Narayan Shah's diplomatic approaches, including their objectives, methods, and outcomes. The findings underscore the crucial impact of diplomacy in uniting a historically fragmented region comprising over 50 small states during the medieval period, enabling Gorkha's leadership in the Nepal unification initiative. Prithvi Narayan Shah implemented various diplomatic strategies to achieve his objectives. Recognizing the economic significance of the Kathmandu Valley, he initiated an economic blockade to undermine its stability, increasing discontent among its inhabitants and prompting them to consider aligning with the Gorkhas. The Gorkha state employed a network of spies to manipulate conflicts among the Malla kings of the valley, fostering mistrust and discord, ultimately destabilizing the region, and facilitating unification. Additionally, he maintained ambiguity about his intentions, neither presenting himself as an enemy nor a friend to the British government. This article underscores how these diplomatic endeavors, coupled with strategic military actions, significantly contributed to the expansion of the Gorkha kingdom and the eventual unification of Nepal.

Navigating the Data Stream: The Intersection of Digital Politics and Indonesian Foreign Policy in the Era of Big Data

In the contemporary landscape of international relations, the fusion of digital politics and big data analytics has emerged as a pivotal force reshaping diplomatic strategies and national foreign policy. This paper delves into the intricate interplay between digital politics and Indonesian foreign policy within the expansive realm of big data. Indonesia is a dynamic archipelago boasting a burgeoning digital ecosystem that serves as an illuminating case study to unravel the multifaceted dynamics of this intersection. In this era of information overload (Wood et al., 1998), big data analytics revolutionized the traditional diplomacy paradigm, offering unprecedented insight into global trends, public sentiment, and policy preferences. Traditionally grounded in diplomatic norms and statecraft, Indonesian foreign policy is now navigating the data stream, leveraging digital technologies to enhance strategic decision-making. The convergence of digital politics and big data has democratized access to information and posed novel challenges, including privacy, misinformation, and algorithmic biases (Boyd, 2008). Against this backdrop, Indonesian policymakers are tasked with crafting nuanced approaches to harness the potential of big data while safeguarding national interest and democratic values. Through a comprehensive analysis of Internet research methods through case studies, policy initiatives, and theoretical frameworks, this paper illuminates the transformative potential of big data in shaping the contours of Indonesian foreign policy. By exploring the synergies between digital politics and diplomatic endeavors, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the evolving landscape of international relations in the digital age.

Nepal’s Portrayal of Its International Image

This paper examines the evolution of Nepal's national identity in the modern context, moving beyond its traditional associations with stunning mountains, Buddha's birthplace, and Gurkha bravery. The study argues that Nepal's portrayal on the global stage is a complex interplay of ancient narratives, diplomatic engagements, and evolving national identity, all influencing its global status. The methodology employs historical analysis to explore Nepal's interactions with other nations, emphasizing the role of its Cold War-era strategic neutrality in shaping its diplomatic stance. Additionally, it analyzes documents to track changes in self-presentation, considering cultural aspects, tourism promotion, and humanitarian efforts as tools for crafting a positive global image. It further explores Nepal's involvement in UN peacekeeping, multilateral forums, and regional dynamics to illuminate the connection between self-presentation and diplomatic goals. Ultimately, the research underscores the importance of a comprehensive diplomatic strategy that aligns with Nepal's national interests and cultural heritage, enabling effective navigation of the complex global landscape while safeguarding its sovereignty.

An Assessment of Kenyan Diplomatic Strategies in Managing Its Kenya-Somalia Maritime Border Disputes

In LDCs like Ethiopia, one of the major macroeconomic problems is the absence of effective monetary policy. The money demand function play a major role in macroeconomic analysis, especially in selecting appropriate monetary policy actions. The objective of monetary policy in the least developing countries (LDCs) is usually related to money and credit control, price stabilization and economic growth. Many LDCs considered, price stability as the most important objective of monetary polices and it is important to testing the stability of parameter of money demand function indicate the effectiveness of the conduct of monetary policy. The research to be conducted therefore is to investigate the determinants of money demand function. Based on the data, which could be found an error correction model (ECM) was applied to estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia. From the study it is found that, money demand is positively related with real GDP and it is negatively related with expected inflation. The coefficient of real effective exchange rate is positive or negative depending on the magnitude of the appreciation and depreciation of local currency. Thus the studies calls for appropriate formulation and implementation of sound monetary policy capable of bringing stability in the coomy coupled with sustainable growth. Keywords : money demand , economic growth , error correction model DOI : 10.7176/DCS/9-1-02

‘서희의 외교 전략’을 통한 동북아시아 외교 문제의 해법

This study examines and applies the diplomatic strategy of Seo Hee, a renowned Goryea diplomat, in resolving Northeast Asian diplomatic challenges that remain unresolved in the 21st century. The examination focuses on Seo Hee’s diplomatic negotiations in the wake of Goryeo’s territorial dispute with the Khitans.
 Seo Hee’s diplomatic resolution with Khitan general Xiao Sunning, leading to the acquisition of six provinces east of the Aprok River(Yalu River), may offer clues to resolving presentday diplomatic issues in Northeast Asia involving Korea. Based on the framework of Seo Hee’s diplomatic resolution with Xiao Sunning, this study proposes solutions to conflicts over the Northern Limit Line (NLL) interpretation between South Korea and North Korea, territorial claims to Dokdo between South Korea and Japan, and the exclusive economic zone between South Korea and China.
 Furthermore, the study advocates benchmarking South Korea’s foreign policy and strategy Seo Hee’s diplomatic resolution in the current international politics in the contradiction and persuasion, terming this diplomatic strategy Seo Hee’s diplomatic strategy for the contradiction and persuasion. Two key proposals emerge from Seo Hee’s diplomatic strategy: first, the importance of training and contradiction and persuasion style diplomatic experts; and second, the adoption of a pragmatic foreign policy with a win-win strategy in which the country and its diplomatic counterpart create mutually favorable outcomes together, rather than a one-sided win or loss. The study posits that South Korea’s diplomacy will make further progress with proper application of these proposals.

How does diversity affect the effectiveness of capacity building training? Evidence from the Republic of Korea

AbstractMotivationPrevious studies on the effectiveness of capacity building training, drawn from the experience of traditional donors, have been limited in their understanding the impact of the diversity of trainees and the diversity of training on the effectiveness of training. This is particularly problematic given the increasing prevalence of such training and the emergence of new donors with different approaches.PurposeThis article investigates the effectiveness of capacity‐building training across different participants and different training types, through the case of an emerging donor, the Republic of Korea (Korea). Korea is distinctive and under‐researched as a country relatively late to join the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC), with several policies explicitly locating capacity‐building training as a diplomatic strategy. Korea has made repeated efforts to diversify participants and types of training to gain a comparative advantage in international development and co‐operation.Methods and ApproachThe study constructs a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to analyse the effectiveness of training across layers of individual diversity (gender, rank, level of national income and extent of democracy) and group diversity (types of trainings). It draws on survey responses from 789 government officials in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs).FindingsTraining effectiveness differs for diverse participants and training types. Effectiveness tends to decrease as job rank and national income rise, while it increases with the level of democracy. Training that fosters diverse interactions and experiences, such as multi‐country training and invitational training, tends to be more effective than other types.Policy ImplicationsOur results suggest implementing more collaborative and customized training to suit the heterogeneous needs of diverse participants. The results emphasize the need to develop and operate various training types that promote diverse interactions and experiences among participants.

Security-oriented steganographic payload allocation for multi-remote sensing images

Multi-image steganography, a technique for concealing information within multiple carrier mediums, finds remote sensing images to be particularly apt carriers due to their complex structures and abundant texture data. These characteristics bolster the resilience against steganalysis and enhance steganographic capacity. The efficacy of multi-image steganography hinges on the diplomatic strategy of cover selection and the meticulous allocation of the payload. Nevertheless, the majority of current methods, which are empirically formulated, predominantly focus on the texture complexity of individual images, thereby potentially undermining overall security. This paper introduces a security-oriented approach to steganographic payload allocation for multiple remote sensing images aimed at fortifying the security of multi-image steganography. Our primary contributions include employing a steganalysis pre-trained network to quantify texture complexity in remote sensing cover images, directly correlating it with security. Additionally, we have developed an adaptive payload allocation strategy for multiple images, which embeds a payload proximate to each image’s maximal steganographic capacity while concurrently ensuring the security of the embedding process. Experimental results corroborate that our methodology excels in cover selection and payload allocation and achieves better undetectability against modern steganalysis tools.