Diffusion Of Energy Technologies Research Articles

Study on the Effect of Bifurcation Position on Spontaneous Ignition and Shock Wave Propagation Characteristics in High-pressure Hydrogen Leakage Tubes

Hydrogen safety issues constrain the development and diffusion of hydrogen energy technologies. The current research on tube types in high-pressure hydrogen storage and transportation links is insufficient. In this paper, the spontaneous combustion law and the propagation characteristics of the shock wave in the tube after accidental leakage of high-pressure hydrogen in a bifurcated tube with a blocking structure are investigated by experimental means. By changing the relative position of the bifurcation structure, it is found that moving the bifurcation position upstream can effectively reduce the intensity of the shock wave at the nozzle of the tube, the propagation velocity of the shock wave inside the tube and the critical ignition pressure. There are three ignition possibilities in the bifurcated tube with blocking structure, and quenching can be realized in the tube under lower pressure.

Price promises, trust deficits and energy justice: Public perceptions of hydrogen homes

In an era characterised by political instability, economic uncertainty and mounting environmental pressures, hydrogen fuel is being positioned as a critical piece of the global energy security and clean energy agenda. The policy push is noteworthy in the United Kingdom, where the government is targeting industrial decarbonisation via hydrogen, while exploring a potential role for hydrogen-fuelled home appliances. Despite the imperative to secure social acceptance for accelerating the diffusion of low-carbon energy technologies, public perceptions of hydrogen homes remain largely underexplored by the researcher community. In response, this analysis draws on extensive focus group data to understand the multi-dimensional nature of social acceptance in the context of the domestic hydrogen transition. Through an integrated, mixed-methods multigroup analysis, the study demonstrates that socio-political and market acceptance are strongly interlinked, owing to a trust deficit in the government and energy industry, coupled to underlying dissatisfaction with energy markets. At the community level, hydrogen homes are perceived as a potentially positive mechanism for industrial regeneration and local economic development. Households consider short-term disruptive impacts to be tolerable, provided temporary disconnection from the gas grid does not exceed three days. However, to strengthen social acceptance, clearer communication is needed regarding the spatial dynamics and equity implications of the transition. The analysis concludes that existing trust deficits will need to be overcome, which entails fulfilling not only a ‘price promise’ on the cost of hydrogen appliances, but also enacting a ‘price pledge' on energy bills. These deliverables are fundamental to securing social acceptance for hydrogen homes.

Probabilistic projections of granular energy technology diffusion at subnational level.

Projections of granular energy technology diffusion can support decision-making on climate mitigation policies and infrastructure investments. However, such projections often do not account for uncertainties and have low spatial resolution. S-curve models of technology diffusion are widely used to project future installations, but the results of the different models can vary significantly. We propose a method to create probabilistic projections of granular energy technology diffusion at subnational level based on historical time series data and testing how various projection models perform in terms of accuracy and uncertainty to inform the choice of models. As a case study, we investigate the growth of solar photovoltaics, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles at municipality level throughout Switzerland in 2000-2021 (testing) and until 2050 (projections). Consistently for all S-curve models and technologies, we find that the medians of the probabilistic projections anticipate the diffusion of the technologies more accurately than the respective deterministic projections. While accuracy and probabilistic density intervals of the models vary across technologies, municipalities, and years, Bertalanffy and two versions of the generalized Richards model estimate the future diffusion with higher accuracy and sharpness than logistic, Gompertz, and Bass models. The results also highlight that all models come with trade-offs and eventually a combination of models with weights is needed. Based on these weighted probabilistic projections, we show that, given the current dynamics of diffusion in solar photovoltaics, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles in Switzerland, the net-zero emissions target would be missed by 2050 with high certainty.

The impact of open access mandates on scientific research and technological development in the U.S.

Getting to a net-zero emissions economy requires faster development and diffusion of novel clean energy technologies. We exploit a rare natural experiment to study the impact of an open-access mandate on the diffusion of scientific research into patented technologies. From 2014 onwards, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) required its 17 National Laboratories (NLs) to publish all peer-reviewed scientific articles without a paywall. Using data from more than 300,000 scientific publications between 2012 and 2018, we show that scientific articles subject to the mandate were used on average 42% more in patents, despite embargo periods of up to 12months. We also show that articles subject to the mandate were not cited more frequently by other academic articles. Our findings suggest that the mandate primarily contributed to technological development but has not led to additional academic research. Lastly, we show that small firms were the primary beneficiaries of the increased diffusion of scientific knowledge.

Energy–materials nexus of electrified vehicle penetration in Japan: A study on energy transition and cobalt flow

The penetration of low-carbon technology must be accelerated to achieve carbon neutrality, but can be restricted by the material supply required for the production of such technology. In this study, we analyzed the diffusion of energy technologies from energy transition and sustainable resource use perspectives. An energy system analysis was performed to evaluate the future technology stock, energy balance, and CO2 emissions in Japan. Simulation results show that 79.4% of the energy consumed and 94.4% of the CO2 emitted by passenger vehicles could be reduced from 2010 levels by 2050, if the maximum growth rate of electrified vehicles is 17% per year. Meanwhile, for that scenario, material flow analysis suggests that cobalt demand in 2050 would increase to 93.9–174.0 kt, which is 20.9–35.8 times of that in 2020. Recycling of cobalt waste will reduce the cobalt supply and demand gap therefore is critical for sustainable resource use.

China's optimal development pathway of intermittent renewable power towards carbon neutrality

The carbon neutrality target proposes challenges for China's intermittent renewable power, which has experienced rapid growth in recent years. This study quantitatively analyzes the competition effects of wind power and solar photovoltaics (PV) by way of a competition model and describes their diffusion mechanisms in the energy system. Taking minimum cost as the objective, it constructs a dynamic programming model to explore the optimal development pathway of China's intermittent renewable power to 2060 under the carbon neutrality target and other typical constraints, which enriches the application of competition model in the energy sector, especially in the field of renewable energy technology diffusion. Besides, it also explores the key factors affecting the pathway by way of scenario and sensitivity analyses. This empirical study finds that solar PV outweighs wind power in the long run because the diffusion of wind power is obviously negatively affected by solar PV, whereas the inverse relationship is slightly positive. Wind power will reach its diffusion cap of 660 GW after steady growth; by comparison, solar PV will achieve its diffusion cap of 1790 GW later, but with a much higher growth rate. Investment constraint and technological level slightly affect the development pathway in the early and middle stages, but grid absorptive ability is the critical factor over the entire study period. These discussions will help governments design pathways for developing intermittent renewable energy that match carbon neutrality targets, taking into account the impact of wind power and solar PV interactions.

Evaluation of the role of clean energy technologies, human capital, urbanization, and income on the environmental quality in the United States

In today's world, environmental concerns are at the forefront of countries' considerations, along with economic priorities. In this context, countries face the challenge of developing and directing their investments in clean energy technologies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly affordable and clean energy. Does the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies contribute to improving environmental quality? This study addresses this question by examining the effects of clean energy technologies on sustainable environmental quality as expressed by the load capacity factor (LCF). In this context, the study explores the United States (US), as the largest economy and one of the leading countries investing in clean energy, considering the role of human capital, urbanization, and economic growth. To this end, this paper applies the novel augmented autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to annual data from 1974 to 2018. The long-term empirical results show that (i) Clean energy technologies have no effect on the LCF; (iii) human capital supports environmental quality; (iv) urbanization has an adverse effect on environmental quality; (v) increasing economic growth worsens environmental quality. Overall, the empirical results suggest that while clean energy technologies should support sustainable environmental quality, this is unfortunately not the case in the US. Therefore, the US policymakers need to take improvement actions to ensure that clean energy technologies contribute to sustainable environmental quality and that the community reaps the environmental benefits of human capital.

Revolution of new energy industry: Spatio-temporal dynamics and drivers of technological diffusion in Zhejiang, China

The new energy that aims to reduce pollution is the technological trend of energy development in the future. The development of the new energy industry is a complex system. Studying the spatio-temporal revolution of new energy industry helps analyse the development trend, supply, and demand of new energy. Thus, taking Zhejiang Province as an example, the spatial evolution of the new energy industry from 2016 to 2021 is studied. The evolution trend of spatial agglomeration of the new energy industry shows the coexistence of agglomeration and diffusion. No overall agglomeration of the new energy industry in Zhejiang Province is observed. The development performs solid spatial dependence. The results indicate that it is challenging to aggregate resources and achieves economies of scale without a leading enterprise. The diffusion of new energy technologies in the future depends on industrial agglomeration and the cultivation of leading enterprises.

Analyzing the co-evolutionary dynamics of consumers’ attitudes and green energy technologies based on a triple-helix model

Technology diffusion is a macroscopic manifestation of individuals' adoption behaviors. The driving force of green energy technology (GET) diffusion lies in the mindsets of individual potential adopters, which are indispensable for GET progress, consumers' attitude evolution, and the diffusion itself. To explore how the three intertwined processes interact to drive GET diffusion, this paper builds a novel agent-based triple-helix model that considers consumers' prior attitudes, peer influences via a social network, consumers' repeat purchases, technology progress, and diffusion. Based on the model calibrated with the data from the automobile industry, three numerical experiments are conducted. Our findings are trifold: (1) One unit improvement in consumers' green attitudes leads to 0.62 unit increase in GET adoption ratio on average, but the effect is subject to marginal diminishing effect; (2) Initial technology maturity and improvement rate are both positive to GET diffusion and display a complementary effect; (3) The model can not only reproduce typical S-shaped innovation diffusion curves but also output results consistent with all critical trends of the Gartner Hype Cycle. Further exploration suggests that the populations' positive initial attitudes, non-adopters interactivity, low initial technology maturity, and consumers’ repeat purchases are crucial factors driving the formation of the Gartner Hype Cycle.

Towards sustainable environment: why green energy technology diffusion is sluggish in South Africa?

Energy security, job development, and minimal environmental damage are just a few of the reasons why green energy technologies have gained popularity. Still, developing these technologies in underdeveloped countries is sluggish due to several bottlenecks. To find and prioritize the bottlenecks to development of green energy technologies (GETs), this study has used the case of South Africa. In this study, technical, financial, social, regulatory, geographical, and institutional bottlenecks are six headings under which 22 bottlenecks are further subdivided. For prioritizing these bottlenecks, a Multi-Objective Optimization based on Ratio Analysis (MOORA) strategy combined with an Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) method was used. The top three bottlenecks impacting the GETs' development involved social, institutional, and regulatory, whereas in sub-headings, corrupt political systems, knowledge of the public, and fixed investments were revealed to be the most significant hurdles. In addition to that, a framework is also developed for assessing how each bottleneck hinders the development of green energy technologies. The results of this study recommend that formulation of policy using the bottom-up approach is important. Notably, politicians at the highest levels should work together to bolster government agencies so that they can monitor and carry out the policies designed to advance GETs. Building the institutional capacity of government offices is crucial for eliminating corruption in political offices and progressing GETs in South Africa.

Innovation systems for technology diffusion: An analytical framework and two case studies

Existing theories on the diffusion of innovations fail to sufficiently account for contextual factors such as institutions, infrastructure, and supply-side dynamics. This paper presents a novel framework to analyse technology diffusion from a sociotechnical systems perspective, intended as an analytical tool to identify and assess drivers and barriers to diffusion that could be addressed through policy or business strategy. This framework, referred to as the diffusion innovation system (DIS) approach, is positioned within the innovation systems literature. The framework is applied to two empirical cases of renewable energy technology diffusion in Sweden: solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power. The cases illustrate how key factors related to institutions, infrastructure, adopters, and supply co-develop over time as the technologies diffuse, hence demonstrating the merits of the framework. As these changes are both a reaction to and a cause of diffusion, the sociotechnical diffusion system develops through positive feedback loops. Although the systems' development is largely conducive of diffusion, some remaining and potential barriers are identified.

What came first, the pellet or boiler? Interacting leverage points within a sociotechnical system in the United States

While studies on the diffusion of energy technology often focus on one element of the energy system, such as policies or adopter demographics, this paper examines the complex suite of interacting factors within energy systems during the early stages of diffusion. We studied the adoption of automated wood pellet heating (AWPH) technology in the northeastern region of the US as an example of an early-stage transition. Using qualitative and quantitative data, we identified leverage points that impact adoption. Sixty interviews across four states were conducted: 35 with adopters and non-adopters of AWPH, 16 with industry representatives, four with government actors, and four with community representatives. Surveys were then distributed state-wide to both adopters and non-adopters with 690 usable responses (38% response rate). Results show that a community-based effort entailing partnerships between institutions and individuals normalize AWPH and reduce the risks of low availability of fuel, technology, and technical support. These partnerships effectively address the complex technical, social, and economic interactions that impact adoption of new heating technology by reducing a self-reinforcing feedback loop between low availability and low demand. They built a new positive feedback loop between visible models of AWPH and increased adoption rates. This positive feedback loop is built upon the value-based motivation of early adopters but may be able to address concerns of other potential adopters. The results of this study suggest that leverage points that impact the adoption of new, sustainable heating technology include bottom-up approaches that center interpersonal communication and multi-sectoral partnerships.

Planning for clean technology diffusion: Identifying innovation system functions in country technology action plans

Researchers and policymakers have been emphasizing on the importance of accelerating clean energy technology diffusion across developing world facing low technology penetration rates and other innovation system barriers. Over the years, development cooperation has pivoted towards recipient country capacity building under broadly defined climate-related aid. In the energy sector of aid recipient countries, aid projects are influential in financing deployment of low-carbon technologies as well as policy advice and reforms, mobilizing private investments, network strengthening, and rural electrification support. Future projects and programs in this sector need to be cognizant of recipient country expectations. This study explores the outlook for future projects managing energy transition through targeted interventions. Employing content analysis of Technology Action Plan documents for twenty-five countries, activities under prioritized technologies were matched with indicators corresponding to seven functions of a technological innovation system. Resource mobilization and creation of legitimacy were the functions prioritized by the countries, while the function of entrepreneurial activity received less priority. The innovation system indicators identified in the literature and used in the study are useful measures that can complement design of donor interventions aimed at accelerating adoption & diffusion of energy technologies. These findings could be used to support further development of Nationally Determined Contributions and accelerated deployment of climate mitigation technologies in national strategies and programs for sustainable development.

Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models

Transforming global energy systems is critical for climate change mitigation and requires overcoming not only techno-economic, but also socio-technical hurdles. The main tools to analyse challenges in these two domains are integrated assessment models (IAMs) and transition theories or models, respectively. Despite a surging interest in integrative research that leverages complementarities in order to include social constraints into IAMs, both approaches are often confined to their own disciplinary background and practical integration studies of existing models are scarce. Here I demonstrate the feasibility of model integration by a bi-directional soft-link that merges the strengths of a neoclassical intertemporally optimising IAM with one global region, and a technologically and regionally highly resolved, evolutionary simulation model of S-shaped technology diffusion in the power sector. The new model iteratively converges to a stable equilibrium via two time-dependent coupling variables: carbon prices and renewable energy shares. The results for a 2 °C scenario show that due to gradual technology diffusion, energy transition challenges are exacerbated and incur higher economic losses. I discuss the potential of coupling existing models as an option to combine insights from different disciplinary perspectives to energy transitions.

Solar energy technology adoption and diffusion by micro, small, and medium enterprises: sustainable energy for climate change mitigation.

This research intends to identify influential factors in adopting and diffusing solar energy technology (SET) by micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in two tehsils of Multan district in Pakistan's Punjab province. To this end, the influential factors are identified through studying literature surveys and conducting questionnaires. Following that, partial least squares-based path modeling is employed. The results showed that (1) enterprises' size, perceived SET's ease of use, and perceived SET's reliability are the top three driving factors. (2) The perceived SET's price, perceived level of competition's pressure, and MSME's energy cost intensity are the barriers to the adoption and diffusion of SET, while the lack of technical knowledge about SET is a neutral factor. (3) Perceived SET's price, MSMEs' energy cost intensity, and enterprises' size are among the most important factors based on the effect size and path coefficients, while the lack of technical knowledge about SET, preferences of MSMEs' customers, and eco-labels and green stickers have lower importance. Since the adoption of SET is a rational decision that is concretely dependent on economic incentives, it is recommended to lower the price of SET to scale up the adoption and diffusion of SET by Pakistani MSMEs.

The diffusion of energy technologies. Evidence from renewable, fossil, and nuclear energy patents

Technology innovation is widely recognised as a critical means in tackling climate change and fulfilling energy policy objectives. The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to provide a descriptive analysis of innovation in energy technology across countries and sectors and over time; and second, to explore the determining factors of patented knowledge diffusion of energy technologies by distinguishing between renewables and other energy patents, i.e., fossil and nuclear patents) thorough a regression analysis. The data employed in this paper consists of an original database on renewables and other energy patents applied by firms in the period 1990–2015 and contained in PATSTAT. By drawing on patent citations as an indicator of knowledge diffusion and focusing on characteristics extracted from patent documents, a set of econometric models is estimated. Our results show that those patents containing more citations to previous scientific literature and patents attain greater diffusion. Joint patents with other firms or universities exert a negligible effect on technology regarding renewables. Co-ownership with universities has a negative effect on the diffusion of other types of energy technology. Several policy implications can be determined from our results: for example, the justification for policies oriented towards enhancing the incorporation of scientific knowledge and co-inventorship in energy innovation.

Effects of cumulative energy aid projects on renewable energy generation capacity

Development cooperation plays an important role in helping aid recipient countries follow low carbon development pathways. Although the nature of cooperation varies across donors and recipients, intentions of renewable energy technology diffusion and structural changes are common for projects in the energy sector. Aid projects promoting renewable energy in developing countries are seldom assessed through econometric methods as the varieties and differences across projects and countries limit generalization. This paper attempts to explore how cumulative number of renewable energy aid projects enhances generation capacity in recipient countries. Using fixed-effect models on such type of projects from 2000 to 2013, we examine the effects of cumulative energy aid project numbers and other control variables on the yearly changes in generation capacity. A positive and statistically significant relationship was found suggesting cumulative learning effect from implemented projects. Presence of host country policies was also found to be important for growth in capacity. Findings of this study adds to the debate of whether density of energy aid projects leads to donor competition or greater fragmentation. Insights from this study can also improve aid providers’ strategy for interventions in the energy sector of recipient countries.

A landscape level analysis of entrepreneurship and sustainable energy transitions: Evidences from Gujarat, India

AbstractIn accordance with India's sustainable energy targets of achieving 175 GW of renewable energy (RE) installed capacity by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030, the role of private sector actors has become increasingly important. As presently, 96 percent of the total installed RE utilities in India are privately owned; this makes sustainability driven entrepreneurship the core of India's energy sector transition. It is vital to explore various individual and firm level, policy and market related factors that enable entrepreneurs to induce innovative RE technologies in the existing conventional energy regime in India. So, this study adopts a multi‐level perspective approach to understand what and how processes at the landscape level (national, sub‐national policy, and international concerns) interplay with niche (sustainability driven entrepreneurs) and regime (existing fossil fuel regime) to create windows of opportunities for sociotechnical transition from conventional to clean energy. This empirical study incorporates structured interviews with 54 RE entrepreneurs operating in Gujarat, to understand the role of policy and international factors in facilitating innovation and firm growth in this sector. As Gujarat contributes around 12 percent to the total RE basket in India and with its culture of innovation and entrepreneurship, ranks among the top 10 states in terms of Ease of Doing Business (2019) the study area has been delimited to this Indian state. The study finds that despite having policy regulations such as tax incentives, Renewable Purchase Obligations, safe‐guard duties, and financial subsidies to promote innovation and entrepreneurship in the RE sector, the profitability of these entrepreneurs is low. Moreover, there are loopholes in implementation of policies which further impede growth of RE entrepreneurship hence leading to hindrance in adoption and diffusion of clean energy technologies in India.

Failing the formative phase: The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets

Understanding the role of technology characteristics and the context in the diffusion of new energy technologies is important for assessing feasibility of climate mitigation. We examine the historical adoption of nuclear power as a case of a complex large scale energy technology. We conduct an event history analysis of grid connections of first sizable commercial nuclear power reactors in 79 countries between 1950 and 2018. We show that the introduction of nuclear power can largely be explained by contextual variables such as the proximity of a country to a major technology supplier (‘ease of diffusion’), the size of the economy, electricity demand growth, and energy import dependence (‘market attractiveness’). The lack of nuclear newcomers in the early 1990s can be explained by the lack of countries with high growth in electricity demand and sufficient capacities to build their first nuclear power plant, either on their own or with international help. We also find that nuclear accidents, the pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the advances made in competing technologies played only a minor role in nuclear technology failing to be established in more countries. Our analysis improves understanding of the feasibility of introducing contested and expensive technologies in a heterogenous world with motivations and capacities that differ across countries and by a patchwork of international relations. While countries with high state capacity or support from a major technology supplier are capable of introducing large-scale technologies quickly, technology diffusion to other regions might undergo significant delays due to lower motivations and capacities.

Technological change or process innovation – An empirical study of implemented energy efficiency measures from a Swedish industrial voluntary agreements program

The implementation of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) is the primary means of improving industrial energy efficiency (IEE). Almost 69% of industrial electricity use emanates from motor systems. IEE has traditionally been explained with technology-diffusion models. According to these models, increased diffusion of more effective motors and drives onto the market leads to improved efficiency. Electric motor systems are represented by three levels: electric motor, core motor system, and total motor system. The first and second levels are related to stand-alone technology measures while the third has a more operational character. Based on a unique dataset of implemented energy-efficiency motor system measures from the 100 most electricity-intensive industrial companies in Sweden, the aim of this paper is to study whether technology diffusion is a valid model for understanding improved energy efficiency in electricity-intensive industries. Results show that 59% of the implemented EEMs from the dataset go beyond technology diffusion models, implying a need for revised models to understand how energy efficiency and technology diffusion occur in energy-intensive industry.