China's optimal development pathway of intermittent renewable power towards carbon neutrality

Abstract

The carbon neutrality target proposes challenges for China's intermittent renewable power, which has experienced rapid growth in recent years. This study quantitatively analyzes the competition effects of wind power and solar photovoltaics (PV) by way of a competition model and describes their diffusion mechanisms in the energy system. Taking minimum cost as the objective, it constructs a dynamic programming model to explore the optimal development pathway of China's intermittent renewable power to 2060 under the carbon neutrality target and other typical constraints, which enriches the application of competition model in the energy sector, especially in the field of renewable energy technology diffusion. Besides, it also explores the key factors affecting the pathway by way of scenario and sensitivity analyses. This empirical study finds that solar PV outweighs wind power in the long run because the diffusion of wind power is obviously negatively affected by solar PV, whereas the inverse relationship is slightly positive. Wind power will reach its diffusion cap of 660 GW after steady growth; by comparison, solar PV will achieve its diffusion cap of 1790 GW later, but with a much higher growth rate. Investment constraint and technological level slightly affect the development pathway in the early and middle stages, but grid absorptive ability is the critical factor over the entire study period. These discussions will help governments design pathways for developing intermittent renewable energy that match carbon neutrality targets, taking into account the impact of wind power and solar PV interactions.