Analyzing the co-evolutionary dynamics of consumers’ attitudes and green energy technologies based on a triple-helix model

Abstract

Technology diffusion is a macroscopic manifestation of individuals' adoption behaviors. The driving force of green energy technology (GET) diffusion lies in the mindsets of individual potential adopters, which are indispensable for GET progress, consumers' attitude evolution, and the diffusion itself. To explore how the three intertwined processes interact to drive GET diffusion, this paper builds a novel agent-based triple-helix model that considers consumers' prior attitudes, peer influences via a social network, consumers' repeat purchases, technology progress, and diffusion. Based on the model calibrated with the data from the automobile industry, three numerical experiments are conducted. Our findings are trifold: (1) One unit improvement in consumers' green attitudes leads to 0.62 unit increase in GET adoption ratio on average, but the effect is subject to marginal diminishing effect; (2) Initial technology maturity and improvement rate are both positive to GET diffusion and display a complementary effect; (3) The model can not only reproduce typical S-shaped innovation diffusion curves but also output results consistent with all critical trends of the Gartner Hype Cycle. Further exploration suggests that the populations' positive initial attitudes, non-adopters interactivity, low initial technology maturity, and consumers’ repeat purchases are crucial factors driving the formation of the Gartner Hype Cycle.