Diffusion Of Electric Vehicles Research Articles

The impact of plug-in behavior on the spatial–temporal flexibility of electric vehicle charging load

While electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to support decarbonizing transport, EVs can challenge the electricity system. Investigating the EV charging load and its flexibility, e.g., by shifting load, is therefore crucial to ensure a secure and sustainable energy system. We develop an agent-based model to investigate how different plug-in behaviors can affect (future) EV charging load profiles and their spatial–temporal flexibility. We contribute to extant literature by (1) revealing the effect of diverse plug-in behaviors on EV load profiles, particularly the flexibility potential resulting from different plug-in behaviors; (2) presenting the (future) charging load in different spatial structures, i.e. urban, rural, or suburban, and home, work, or public charging locations; and (3) demonstrating the effect of detailed driving profiles in high spatial and temporal resolution. We implement three future scenarios regarding EV and charging infrastructure diffusion and technology developments. We find that the impact of potential changes in plug-in behavior on EV charging load would be highest for urban areas and increases as charging infrastructure becomes more spatially diversified. Decision-makers in policy and industry can use these insights to evaluate the impact of EV charging on distribution grids and design incentives to leverage the flexibility potential of EVs.

Types of Policies for the Joint Diffusion of Electric Vehicles with Renewable Energies and Their Use Worldwide

A large reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be needed in the coming decades to keep global warming well below 2 °C. Together, energy and transport sectors are responsible for around ¾ of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions worldwide. The transition to a low-carbon economy involves an increase in the share of renewable energies in power grid and the electrification of the transports thus demanding policies focused on the joint diffusion of the two technologies This study adopted a hybrid methodology to examine several types of policies and their implications in the use and diffusion of the electric vehicles charged with renewables. We argue that it is not enough to have policies to expand electric mobility with renewable sources. The results reveal that production and technology represent ⅓ of electric vehicles and renewables policies. Broad coverage of policies does not translate into market gains since 20% of the countries that encourage electric vehicles have a low market share. Policies need to be broad, consistent, reach more countries and promote synergies between renewables and electric mobility to provide the conjoint diffusion of both technologies and allow the CO2 emission mitigation targets for 2030 to be achieved. This study contributes to research on sustainable policies and innovations to decarbonizing the energy and transport sectors.

Electric vehicle deployment & fossil fuel tax revenue in Mexico to 2050

We assess the changes in Mexico's privately owned vehicle fleet and tax losses (fuel duty on gasoline) associated to the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) through a diffusion model. Our projections for 2050 focus on a) electricity use of EVs, b) gasoline use and c) revenue for Mexico's treasury. The model uses population growth and vehicles sales to project two items: a) EV diffusion and b) substitution rates of ICVs with EVs. The equation uses vehicle km travelled and average consumption of fuel to calculate gasoline use of vehicles.The results show that revenues decline by 21.6% per year 2019–2050 owing to technological change in comparison to a gasoline-based scenario. The scenario without EVs points that Mexico's Treasury revenues grow by 100% by 2050 in comparison to revenues collected under the EV diffusion scenario.By 2032 motorization based on EVs will reach 50% of the saturation level producing revenue losses for Mexico's treasury between 70 and 105 billion US$ on a cumulative basis by 2050. Policy implications include: the need to adopt a new tax on electricity, a subsidy policy for EVs and for its infrastructure, a registration tax and an appropriate sales tax as well as strengthening the electric mobility strategy of the country. These taxes help recoup the lost tax revenue of Mexico's treasury.

Influence of Energy Management System Control Strategies on the Battery State of Health in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Nowadays, the automotive market has showed great interest in the diffusion of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). Despite their low emissions and energy consumptions, if compared with traditional fossil fuel vehicles, their architecture is much more complex and presents critical issues in relation to the combined use of the internal combustion engine (ICE), the electric machine and the battery pack. The aim of this paper is to investigate lithium-ion battery usage when coupled with an optimization-based strategy in terms of the overall energy management for a specific hybrid vehicle. A mathematical model for the power train of a Peugeot 508 RXH was implemented. A rule-based energy management system (EMS) was developed and optimized using real data from the driving cycles of two different paths located in Messina. A mathematical model of the battery was implemented to evaluate the variation of its voltage and state of charge (SOC) during the execution of driving cycles. Similarly, a mathematical model was implemented to analyze the state of health (SOH) of the battery after the application of electrical loads. It was thus possible to consider the impact of the energy management system not only on fuel consumption but also on the battery pack aging. Three different scenarios, in terms of battery usage at the starting SOC values (low, medium, and maximum level) were simulated. The results of these simulations highlight the degradation and aging of the studied battery in terms of the chosen parameters of the rule-based optimized EMS.

Exploring the role of environmental regulations in the production and diffusion of electric vehicles

Recently, the governments worldwide are focusing on the role of environmental regulation policies for promoting the vigorous development of electric vehicles (EVs). To this end, it is particularly important to explore the potential effect of environmental regulation policies after its promulgation on the production and diffusion of EVs. In this paper, a novel modeling approach based on the evolutionary game model and epidemic model is developed and used to reveal the production and diffusion of EVs at different stages. The simulation results show that the strategies of vehicle enterprises and local governments will gradually approach (1,0) in the early infancy; and the maximum diffusion of EVs in the market will not be presented at this stage. Research results also illustrate that all equilibrium point are the saddle points in the development stage, but the degree of EVs diffusion in the market is likely to be small. With the implementation of stricter environmental regulations at the mature stage, the figures of equilibrium points gather to (1,1). However, EVs will be been diffused over large areas in the market by implementing the medium levels of environmental regulations at the mature stage. These findings will help the Chinese government in applying differentiated environmental regulation standards to promote the production and diffusion of EVs at different stages.

A systematic review of the agent-based modelling/simulation paradigm in mobility transition

Simulations and agent-based modelling (ABM) have gained momentum as techniques in the transport, energy, and technology diffusion literature to analyse the mobility transition as a complex emergent phenomenon. This study systematically reviews the application of the ABM paradigm in 86 mobility transition studies. The study reveals several research gaps and proposes avenues for future research. Our review highlights that (i) the field has considerably matured in studying the diffusion of electric vehicles, (ii) both price-based and preference-based scenarios for mobility transition should be considered in future research, (iii) most of the empirical model calibrations have been confined to Western countries. Not only will the literature benefit from similar research in other Western regions, but also from non-Western nations with their unique mobility transition pathways, (iv) the conceptual modelling framework of studies can be divided into the two categories of theory-driven and heuristic models. The theory-driven models, which include psychological and non-psychological (e.g., activity-based travel) models, tend to use well-established behavioural rules, (v) most of the models have used the random utility maximization concept, social psychological models, and other simple assumptions/thresholds for the decision-making process of agents, (vi) half of the studies did not validate their models, and (vii) two-thirds of studies omitted to discuss interaction topology among agents. Major remaining challenges and gaps are identified in the review.

An assessment of barriers and solutions for the deployment of electric vehicles in the Brazilian market

The growing concerns about the energy and environmental crisis drive the development of a sustainable society. The electric vehicle (EV) is a potentially clean technology that can contribute to the decarbonization of the transportation sector. However, EVs face obstacles to being diffused and are not prevalent in the global vehicle fleet. Thus, this research identifies the attractiveness, barriers, and solutions for the diffusion of EVs. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key agents of the Brazilian supply chain of this technology. Results showed that EVs have essential attractions, but there are barriers to their diffusion in the Brazilian market related to EV cost, charging infrastructure, and public policies. The main solutions to overcome these barriers and expand EV adoption involve: (i) increase of emission consumer awareness through promotional campaigns by government and industry, (ii) tax and non-tax incentives, e.g., reduction of taxation on EV purchase or parts of it, reduction of annual fees or special transit permits for EV, and (iii) technological advances, notably in terms of battery performance and availability and efficiency of charging stations. This research comprises aspects of EV diffusion in Brazil but can serve as guidance for other countries with emerging economies or regions where EV adoption is still incipient.

Comparing the levelized cost of electric vehicle charging options in Europe

With rapidly decreasing purchase prices of electric vehicles, charging costs are becoming ever more important for the diffusion of electric vehicles as required to decarbonize transport. However, the costs of charging electric vehicles in Europe are largely unknown. Here we develop a systematic classification of charging options, gather extensive market data on equipment cost, and employ a levelized cost approach to model charging costs in 30 European countries (European Union 27, Great Britain, Norway, Switzerland) and for 13 different charging options for private passenger transport. The findings demonstrate a large variance of charging costs across countries and charging options, suggesting different policy options to reduce charging costs. A specific analysis on the impacts and relevance of publicly accessible charging station utilization is performed. The results reveal charging costs at these stations to be competitive with fuel costs at typical utilization rates exhibited already today.

An integrated Principal Component Analysis and Interpretive Structural Modeling approach for electric vehicle adoption decisions in sustainable transportation systems

The rapid growth of the global economy and advanced technology has modernized our life, but it has taken its toll on ecology and environmental sustainability. Over the last few decades, the world has experienced increased emissions of toxic gases, severe global warming, and ambient air pollution. Mass dependency on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is rightfully criticized for increasing air pollution, jeopardizing societal health outcomes, and perpetuating the use of fossil fuels-all of which threaten sustainable development. Amid this situation, to ensure economic and social growth as well as help to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) by improving energy security, electric vehicles (EVs) are the green alternatives to conventional high-emission vehicles. To successfully promote EV adoption and diffusion in emerging economies, the key drivers that may foster the adoption process must be identified and evaluated. However, there exists a conspicuous literature gap in this domain. This study presents an intelligent multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) to identify, examine, and classify the drivers of successful adoption of EVs in the emerging economies. Based on the literature review and expert feedback, a total of seventeen drivers were identified and later prioritized by using PCA. The top twelve drivers have been further analyzed using ISM-MICMAC to examine their interrelationships. The findings reveal that vehicle performance and reliability, adequate power and charging infrastructure, and government policies are the most influential factors for EV adoption. Finally, this study offers several managerial implications and prospects, which may aid governments and the automotive sectors in taking strategic measures to capture this booming market and pursue more EV customers for a sustainable future.

How does government regulation promote green product diffusion in complex network? An evolutionary analysis considering supply side and demand side.

China has launched a series of regulation policies that promote the diffusion of green products to drive the green development of resources and environment. This study proposes an evolutionary game model of green product diffusion by providing a joint "supply side - demand side" regulatory framework. It simulates the effects of government regulation on green product diffusion in complex network, the related numerical simulation analysis is carried out through a case of electric vehicles diffusion. The study confirms that (1) On the supply side, green subsidies, environmental taxes, and carbon trading market can successfully increase green product diffusion to 0.84, 0.7, and 0.65. On the demand side, green consumption vouchers, as well as publicity and education can increase green product diffusion to 0.7 and 0.67. (2) Among the order-based regulatory instruments, high environmental taxes and poor participation in carbon trading market can inhibit the spread of green products, while low green consumption vouchers fail to stimulate the purchase of green products. It is crucial to enhance emotion-based regulatory instruments like publicity and education. (3) Neither order-based nor emotion-based regulation can achieve complete diffusion of green products. This study provides new insights of green product diffusion under government regulation and its implementation effects.

Factors affecting cost competitiveness of electric vehicles against alternative powertrains: A total cost of ownership-based assessment in the Italian market

Electric vehicles have faced a significant diffusion in the last years, however they still represent a minority share over passenger cars registrations worldwide. Economic factors play a crucial role in preventing a higher diffusion of electric vehicles, with particular reference to the higher purchase price compared to internal combustion engine vehicles . Indeed, potential electric vehicles buyers typically tend to underestimate long-term savings that can be achieved due to the lower operating costs characterizing electric vehicles compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (so-called “energy-efficiency paradox”). An emerging literature stream suggests that the availability of comprehensive economic comparisons between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, based on the total cost of ownership, would increase the potential customers’ willingness to buy an electric vehicle. However, there is an ongoing debate on the cost competitiveness of electric vehicles considering the whole ownership period, and in particular on the most influencing factors affecting it. The paper aims to fill this literature gap by assessing the cost competitiveness of electric vehicles against a broad set of alternative powertrains , with reference to the Italian market. To this aim, an ad hoc assessment tool based on the total cost of ownership has been developed, leveraging the extant knowledge on the topic and addressing current gaps. Results show that battery electric vehicles are characterized by the lowest total cost of ownership among analysed powertrains in two out of four vehicle segments evaluated, i.e., segments A (mini cars) and C (medium cars). This is mainly due to the presence of purchasing incentives and the lower fuel-related and non fuel-related operating costs characterizing battery electric vehicles compared to other powertrains, which more than offset the higher purchase price. In other cases, the relatively high purchase price characterizing battery electric vehicles (as well as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) negatively affects their cost competitiveness. The study provides suggestions for managers of companies within the e-mobility value chain and policymakers on the levers to promote the spread of electric vehicles to achieve the decarbonisation targets for the transportation sector.

The role of middle actors in electrification of transport in Swedish rural areas

In this paper, we use the middle-out perspective to analyze the diffusion of electric cars and plug-in hybrids in Swedish rural areas and small towns. In Sweden, electrification of the transport system is a priority, particularly in car-dependent rural areas. However, the transition to electromobility mainly takes place in major urban areas. To understand the dynamics of the transition to electrified transport and identify how it may be facilitated, we identify top actors, bottom actors, and middle actors and analyze how middle actors exert influence. Our case study is based on in-depth interviews with civil servants who work with energy and transport issues in rural areas throughout Sweden and with representatives of energy companies and government agencies.We show that three middle actors are important: municipalities, local energy companies, and local car dealers. The municipalities and local energy companies mainly exert influence by knowledge diffusion and by contributing to projects such as charging infrastructure development. The car dealers are examples of middle actors who could play a central role by influencing consumers, but who currently often obstruct electric vehicle diffusion.We find that the support of top actors is very important for middle actors to be able to facilitate diffusion of electric cars and plug-in hybrids. Municipalities are in a unique position to use their knowledge, local networks, and sideways and upwards connections to strengthen the agency and capacity of citizens and small businesses (bottom actors). However, as small Swedish municipalities often have limited resources, long-term support from government agencies (top actors) is crucial. As middle actors are so important for the diffusion of electric vehicles, especially in the rural context where market forces are weaker than in the urban context, national policy for electrification of transport should support them.

Modeling usage intention for sustainable transport: Direct, mediation, and moderation effect

India is exceptionally backward in public acceptance and diffusion of electric vehicles. Therefore, considering the perspective of the Indian people, policymakers, automakers, and marketers, the primary aim of this study was to develop an effective model comprising selective influencing variables that were relevant in the Indian context and capable of revealing the true intention of Indian people to use electric vehicles (EVs). The structural equation modeling was applied to validate the proposed model. Consistently significant results derived from the three separate studies confirmed that the intention to use electric vehicles in India could be explained as being most significantly related to purchase price, perceived behaviour control, personal norms, environmental concerns, sustainable behaviour, driving range, household income, respectively, among all significant influencing factors. The findings covered the literature gaps by confirming the consistently and comparatively strong partial mediating effect of environmental concerns on the relationship between sustainable behaviour and EVs usage intention, personal norms and EVs usage intention, and the mediating effect of the purchase price on the relationship between the driving range and EVs usage intention. The findings also confirmed a moderating effect of age on the relationship between perceived behaviour control and EVs usage intention. The study propounds some important implications for policymakers, automakers, marketers, and other stakeholders, reflecting on the development of strategies for wide-scale acceptance of EVs in India in the coming years.

The impact of COVID-19 on the market prospects of electric passenger cars.

The outbreak of COVID‐19 pandemic has caused changes worldwide in a dimension that has not been seen since the Second World War. This pandemic and the measures taken to moderate the negative consequences have affected almost all aspects of our life. Transport has been one of the most affected sectors. In general, the global car market is very sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. This applies especially to electric vehicles, which are still very dependent on financial support measures. A combination of travel restrictions, unemployment, and low oil prices could have significant impact on electric vehicles. This paper provides an overview of the development of electric vehicles and corresponding policies covering the period before and during the COVID crisis. Policy framework and the future development of the annual gross domestic product per capita have a significant impact on diffusion of battery electric vehicles. However, since the crisis is still ongoing, the full impact of the COVID crisis on mobility is still to be seen but the findings so far show rather favorable signs for electric mobility.This article is categorized under:Cities and Transportation > Electric Mobility

Understanding barriers to electric vehicle adoption for personal mobility: A case study of middle income in-service residents in Hyderabad city, India

Globally, there is a significant increase in the sales of electric vehicles (EVs), and in many counties, this is leading to transformational change in the use of vehicle technology. In India, the government provides policy and financial incentives with an expectation of large-scale diffusion of EVs in the medium and long term. However, for the diffusion of EVs, it is essential to understand consumer behaviour. This study contributes to understanding factors necessary to drive EV demand in India by analysing the behaviour of potential EV buyers. The city of Hyderabad in India was used as a case study. Personal interviews were used, and stated preferences for different scenarios were analysed using discrete choice models. The analysis reveals a general willingness to purchase EVs among the middle-income working population in India. However, this initial excitement was found to be only due to a lack of awareness about running cost and specification of EVs, and when the these were known, most respondents showed high sensitivity and reconsidered their choice. It was also found that financial and policy incentives positively impact EV adoption, underlining their importance. The estimates from this study thus provide insights into the policy responses and also for framing market strategies.

Promotion Policies for Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China Considering Dynamic Consumer Preferences: A Network-Based Evolutionary Analysis.

An improved understanding of how policies can promote the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is critical to achieving sustainable development. Previous studies of EV diffusion dynamics have paid insufficient attention to consumer preferences. In this paper, a network-based evolutionary game model considering dynamic consumer preference is constructed to study EV diffusion. Through numerical experiments, the evolutionary processes and results of various promotion policies, including carbon taxes, production subsidies, purchase subsidies, and information policy on EV diffusion, are simulated. In particular, this paper explores the differentiated effects of supply-side policies and demand-side policies. The simulation results indicate that: (1) The effectiveness of promotion policies is sensitive to the size of the manufacturer network, and large networks can dampen periodical fluctuations in diffusion rates. (2) Supply-side carbon taxes and subsidies facilitate a steady diffusion of EVs. However, compared with the sustained effectiveness of subsidies, carbon taxes may inhibit the rapid penetration of EVs. (3) Implementing purchase subsidies in the early stages of diffusion is more effective than production subsidies, but the potential uncertainty of demand-side subsidies should be noted. (4) The impact of information policy on the evolutionary trend of EV diffusion is pronounced but is a longer-term impact, requiring a long enough implementation horizon.

Decarbonisation of passenger light-duty vehicles using spatially resolved TIMES-Ireland Model

Higher spatial resolution is becoming a key component of energy system analysis. Existing multi-regional national scale energy systems optimisation models (ESOMs) facilitate an improved understanding of spatial dynamics. Yet, region-specific characteristics of transport technologies and infrastructures along with consumer heterogeneity have remained under-investigated. The current paper addresses this gap by developing a multi-regional transport sector within the system-wide TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM). The transport sector is divided into 26 sub-regions, and each region is characterised by the existing vehicle fleet, public transport availability, scrappage rate, annual mileage, vehicle fuel economy and the corresponding passenger and freight mobility demand. The consumers (car buyers) are disaggregated based on their income level to incorporate a more realistic representation of their behaviour in vehicle purchasing decisions. While TIM ensures carbon neutrality across the whole energy system by mid-century, this study mainly explores the decarbonisation of passenger Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs). It shows to what extent different measures (i.e, LDV improvements, monetary incentives, modal shift, biofuel obligation, carbon tax and occupancy rate) can contribute to meeting ambitious mitigation targets by 2030. Spatially resolved analysis as the main novelty of this research presents valuable insights into regional electric vehicles (EVs) diffusion and their electricity consumption. The proposed method can be used to address the uncertainty that arises from consumer heterogeneity in the policymaking process. The findings also suggest keeping financial EV incentives until the mid-2020s to meet the ambitious goals. Finally, decarbonisation without demand-side strategies (i.e., controlling the level of private-car-based mobility) seems to be unachievable.

How Innovative Characteristics Influence Consumers’ Intention to Purchase Electric Vehicle: A Moderating Role of Lifestyle

Electric vehicles have been identified as a viable option for optimization of the energy structure to foster energy conservation and a reduction in emissions, as well as to promote the development of a sustainable economy. Recently, China announced that the financial subsidies for electric vehicles will be gradually withdrawn, and many incentive policies will be revised, indicating that the electric vehicle market has transformed from a policy-driven to a market-driven structure. Therefore, we study the elements affecting consumers’ purchase intention in the early stage of electric vehicle availability to provide a theoretical reference that can be used in China to continue to stimulate market diffusion of electric vehicles based on the innovation diffusion theory and planned behavior theory. The current study explains the associations among the innovation characteristics, perceived risk, and purchase intention in relation to electric vehicles and details the moderating effect of lifestyle on fashion consciousness, environmental consciousness, and price consciousness. This paper investigates 529 potential consumers in Beijing, Shanghai, and other places, and AMOS and SPSS were used to perform quantitative analyses. The results show that innovation characteristics exert an obvious effect on purchase intention based on the mediating variable of perceived risk. Fashion consciousness significantly moderates the relationship between relative advantage and perceived risk, and environmental consciousness has a significant influence on the relationship between technology compatibility and perceived risk. Price consciousness plays the smallest role in this process. In practice, the findings suggest that practitioners can promote electric vehicle consumer purchase intention by using psychological activation techniques to improve the attitude and educational interest in relation to this product. It is also suggested that, as part of the strategy, government services should be improved.

Economics of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles in Korea

This study explores the economics of the public electric vehicle (EV) charging station in Korea to provide insights into the business. In Korea, the public charging infrastructure is typically important for the large scale diffusion of EV because many potential EV buyers live in multi-family residential units with limited off-street parking and thus installing home chargers is restricted. With internal data from the private charging service providers, this study shows that the charging business is hardly profitable with the current charging price of $0.23/kWh with subsidies to mitigate initial investment costs. In addition, many industry analysts have noted that subsidies may distort charging market; building charging stations to get the subsidies without considering economics of stations resulting in very low utilization rate. Removing the subsidies may minimize the market distortion but the economic feasibility becomes much worse. We propose the discriminatory price scheme, that is, different charging prices for the slow and the fast chargers. The appropriate charging prices without subsidies are estimated to be $0.25/kWh for the slow chargers (9% higher than the current charging price) and $0.39/kWh for the fast chargers (70% higher than the current price).

Optimizing urban electric vehicle incentive policy mixes in China: Perspective of residential preference heterogeneity

The large-scale diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) helps pave the way towards carbon peak and neutrality goals, while it is affected by the governmental incentive policies at different levels. This paper studies the optimization of demand-side policy mixes from the perspective of residential preference heterogeneity with 18 EV pilot cities in China as the case. A latent class model is used to investigate urban residents’ preferences for demand-side policies and characterization of urban heterogeneities of the preferences. Valid survey data from 1455 respondents were collected from a stated preference experiment, which segmented urban residents into a “policy-sensitive” group (8.25% of the sample), “policy-indifferent” group (27.97%), and “policy-cognitive” group according to their preferences. The 18 pilot cities were grouped into three clusters according to the different compositions of the preference segments. Our analysis shows that it may not be necessary for the municipal governments to provide subsidies for the installations of home chargers currently. Besides, different optimized policy mixes of bus lane access privileges, replacement subsidies, toll discounts, and preferential parking fees for charging were proposed for the three clusters of cities. Our research paradigm applies to cities in other countries that need to optimize EV policy mixes.