Promotion Policies for Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China Considering Dynamic Consumer Preferences: A Network-Based Evolutionary Analysis.

Abstract

An improved understanding of how policies can promote the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is critical to achieving sustainable development. Previous studies of EV diffusion dynamics have paid insufficient attention to consumer preferences. In this paper, a network-based evolutionary game model considering dynamic consumer preference is constructed to study EV diffusion. Through numerical experiments, the evolutionary processes and results of various promotion policies, including carbon taxes, production subsidies, purchase subsidies, and information policy on EV diffusion, are simulated. In particular, this paper explores the differentiated effects of supply-side policies and demand-side policies. The simulation results indicate that: (1) The effectiveness of promotion policies is sensitive to the size of the manufacturer network, and large networks can dampen periodical fluctuations in diffusion rates. (2) Supply-side carbon taxes and subsidies facilitate a steady diffusion of EVs. However, compared with the sustained effectiveness of subsidies, carbon taxes may inhibit the rapid penetration of EVs. (3) Implementing purchase subsidies in the early stages of diffusion is more effective than production subsidies, but the potential uncertainty of demand-side subsidies should be noted. (4) The impact of information policy on the evolutionary trend of EV diffusion is pronounced but is a longer-term impact, requiring a long enough implementation horizon.