Scenarios Of Socio-economic Development Research Articles

Future changes in society and climate may strongly shape wild large-herbivore faunas across Europe.

Restoring wild communities of large herbivores is critical for the conservation of biodiverse ecosystems, but environmental changes in the twenty-first century could drastically affect the availability of habitats. We projected future habitat dynamics for 18 wild large herbivores in Europe and the relative future potential patterns of species richness and assemblage mean body weight considering four alternative scenarios of socioeconomic development in human society and greenhouse gas emissions(SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5). Under SSP1-RCP2.6, corresponding to a transition towards sustainable development, we found stable habitat suitability for most species and overall stable assemblage mean body weight compared to the present, withan average increase in species richness (in 2100: 3.03 ± 1.55 compared to today's 2.25 ± 1.31 species/area). The other scenarios are generally unfavourable for the conservation of wild large herbivores, although under theSSP5-RCP8.5 scenario there would be increase in species richness and assemblage mean body weight in some southern regions (e.g. + 62.86 kg mean body weight in Balkans/Greece). Our results suggest that a shift towards a sustainable socioeconomic development would overallprovide the best prospect of our maintaining or even increasing the diversity of wild herbivore assemblages in Europe, thereby promoting trophic complexity and the potential to restore functioning and self-regulating ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Enhancing Urban Climate‐Energy Modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Through Explicit Representation of Urban Air‐Conditioning Adoption

AbstractImproved representation of urban processes in Earth System Models (ESMs) is a pressing need for climate modeling and climate‐driven urban energy studies. Despite recent improvements to its fully coupled Building Energy Model (BEM), the current Community Land Model Urban (CLMU) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) lacks the infrastructure to model air‐conditioning (AC) adoption explicitly. This undermines CESM's fidelity in modeling urban climate and energy use, and limits its use in climate and energy risk assessments. Here, we establish a new parameterization scheme in CESM that represents AC adoption explicitly through an AC adoption rate parameter in the BEM of CLMU, and build a present‐day, global, survey‐based, and spatially explicit AC adoption rate data set at country and sub‐country level that is integrated within CESM. The new data set can be leveraged for other ESMs or global‐scale models and analyses. The explicit AC adoption scheme and the AC adoption rate data set significantly improve the accuracy of anthropogenic heat modeling due to AC in CESM. The new parameterization scheme makes it possible to evaluate the effects of changing AC adoption on global urban energy and climate using CESM. These developments enhance CESM in its use for climate impact assessments under future climate and socioeconomic development scenarios, and represent continued efforts in better representing urban processes and coupled human‐urban‐Earth dynamics in ESMs.

Assessing the impact of climate change on landslide recurrence intervals in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Thailand, using CMIP6 climate models

Climate variability and climate change may influence the frequency and recurrence interval of landslides. Precipitation, as a main triggering factor of landslides, may be influenced by climate variability and climate change. Changes in precipitation may directly affect landslide frequency and recurrence intervals. Considering the influence of climate variability and climate change, the partial duration series method and critical rainfall threshold are combined with the simulated precipitation of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in future landslide recurrence intervals in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Thailand. The analytical results predicted changes in the landslide frequency over the next 20 years (2023 to 2042). SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 are adopted as future socioeconomic development scenarios. According to the predictions, the results showed that the return period of landslide occurrence in the future will be shorter than the return period of landslide occurrence in the historical period; moreover, the landslide recurrence interval will fluctuate greatly. The Nakhon Si Thammarat DWR meteorological station shows the most fluctuation in landslide recurrence intervals for SSP1–2.6. In addition, the Nakhon Si Thammarat meteorological Station experiences a significant decrease of approximately 35% in landslide recurrence intervals under SSP1–2.6. For SSP2–4.5, the Nakhon Si Thammarat meteorological station shows the most fluctuation in landslide return period. In addition, the Nakhon Si Thammarat meteorological station observed a decline in landslide recurrence intervals, with a reduction of approximately 40%. Hence, the frequency of landslides may increase in the future. A comparison between SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 revealed that SSP2–4.5 yielded lower landslide return periods.

MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM nexus module: integrating water sector and climate impacts

Abstract. The integrated assessment model (IAM) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM developed by IIASA is widely used to analyze global change and socioeconomic development scenarios within energy and land systems across different scales. However, to date, the representation of impacts from climate effects and water systems in the IAM has been limited. We present a new nexus module for MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM that improves the representation of climate impacts and enables the analysis of interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamic system. The module uses a spatially resolved representation of water systems to retain hydrological information without compromising computational feasibility. It maps simplified water availability and key infrastructure assumptions with the energy and land systems. The results of this study inform on the transformation pathways required under climate change impacts and mitigation scenarios. The pathways include multi-sectoral indicators highlighting the importance of water as a constraint in energy and land-use decisions and the implications of global responses to limited water availability from different sources, suggesting possible shifts in the energy and land sectors.

Prediction of ecological security network in Northeast China based on landscape ecological risk

The expansion of human activities has significantly increased ecological risks, which threaten the security of ecosystems. This paper takes Northeast China, a national typical ecological barrier region, as a case study to explore the evolution of the ecological environment under various future development scenarios. Considering the complexity of ecological assessments, a comprehensive approach integrating various methods is employed. This includes the Patch-based Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, a landscape ecological risk assessment index system, the Space Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, among others. These methods are used to dynamically assess changes in land use, landscape ecological risk (LER), and the layout of ecological networks. An integrated framework is proposed for identifying, constructing, and optimizing the ecological security network (ESN). The results show that the LER in Northeast China presents a “high in the middle, low around” distribution characteristic. High risk areas are mainly distributed in water bodies and construction lands with high landscape fragmentation and isolation, while low risk areas are primarily in the Northeast forest belt and Inner Mongolia grassland areas with lower landscape vulnerability and separation. From 2000 to 2020, the LER in the Northeast China has increased, primarily manifested in the Greater and Lesser Khingan Range areas in the northern part of the study region. Forecast results indicate significant differences in the evolution of LERs and the layout of the ESN under different socio-economic development scenarios. Under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, the average LER in Northeast China is 0.2215. The area of ecological source lands is 302,405.56 km2, the length of ecological corridors is 179,024.71 km, with 339 ecological nodes and 410 ecological breakpoints identified. Compared with the natural development (ND) and urban construction (UC) scenarios, the EP scenario in Northeast China shows the lowest LER and the most ideal layout of the ESN. This study provides a reference for future land resource optimization and ecological restoration in Northeast China.

Projections of Land Use Change and Water Supply–Demand Assessment Based on Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Case Study of Guizhou Province, China

Land use change and water supply–demand assessment are critical to achieving regional sustainable development and improving human wellbeing. In the context of complex climate change and socioeconomic development, there is an urgent need for systematic assessment and forecasting studies on how to combine physical, geographical, and socioeconomic factors to clarify patterns of change in the land use change and water supply–demand, as well as to respond appropriately to different climate and socioeconomic development scenarios in the future. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, a framework for simulating future land use change and assessing water supply–demand in the coupled SD-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed. The land use change in Guizhou Province from 2020 to 2050 was simulated using the SD-PLUS model, and the water supply–demand conditions were projected for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under multiple scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The research results indicated that (1) The land use change in the study area has significant spatial heterogeneity. It showed similar trends in the land use change in the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, with both artificial surfaces and forest showing an expansion trend, but the expansion of forest was most typical in the southwestern region in the SSP126 scenario, and there is a significant increase in the northeastern region in the SSP245 scenario. Additionally, there is a rapid expansion of artificial surfaces in the central region in the SSP585 scenario, and a more rapid expansion of cultivated land in the southeastern region, with a significant increase in the area of water bodies. (2) The changes in water supply from 2020 to 2050 under the three scenarios show a smaller increase (5.22–11.88%), a significant increase in water demand (29.45–58.84%), and an increase in the area of water shortage by about 2708.94–9084.40 km2, with the extent of the shortage increasing by about 23.71–79.50%. (3) According to the results of the SSP-RCP scenario projections, socioeconomic development has a significant impact on the growth of water demand, and climate and land use change may exacerbate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water supply–demand in the karst region. The systematic study of land use change and water supply–demand in Guizhou can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of regional ecosystems and the rational allocation of land and water resources.

Future potable water supply demand projection under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Gshba subbasin, Northern Ethiopia

This paper aims to quantify the subbasin’s potable water supply demand forecast from 2023 to 2050 under various scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development. The variability of the climate and the resulting problems with urbanization threaten the availability of water resources, especially in less developed countries like Ethiopia. Thus, the main objective of this study is showing the necessary to determine the amount of water needed in advance, in order to comply with the availability of water resources within a specified future period under different scenarios. Our indicator-based approach used a multicriteria decision-making technique. Accordingly, several important variables were considered, including climatological, anthropological, demographic, socioeconomic, and economic variables, in addition to water engineering-related factors (e.g. Water losses). The method also considered a number of factors, such as unexpected and extreme temperature changes, and forecasting factors studied by the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy. The projected population in the subbasin is estimated at 2.52 million, so the total projected water supply demand i.e., for domestic, non-domestic, industrial, commercial, public, and institutional is approximately 126.53 MCM/yr by 2050. Our results revealed how changes in both climatic and socioeconomic factors strongly influence future water resource system performance, and this will help the water services provider better prioritize the refurbishment of existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, and more importantly, manage the subbasin effectively by introducing resilient adaptation options.

Mechanisms of resilience in cities at different development phases: A system dynamics approach

Ecological degradation, environmental pollution, and lack of resources have brought challenges to sustainable urban development, whereas the concept of resilience provides a new normative and analytical tool to investigate urban responses to changes. To explore the mechanisms of resilience in cities at different development phases, this study employs a system dynamics approach to simulate and compare the evolutionary state of different resilient subsystems, including economic, social, ecological and infrastructure modules within cities. Then taking Beijing, Fuzhou, and Urumqi in China, three cities at different development stages as examples, the evolution of urban resilience systems from 2000 to 2035 is simulated under the socio-economic development scenario. The results show urban resilience in the three case study cities evolves in different trajectories with distinctive features showcasing different development phase. This study constructs a resilient city system dynamics model, which provides references for future quantitative resilience simulations and can be adapted and applied to resilience simulations of cities in different contexts. In addition, the case study provides distinct policy recommendations for resilience building in cities at various stages of development and points out key areas for resilience building in different cities.

Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development

Climate change adaptation is paramount, but increasing evidence suggests that adaptation action is subject to a range of constraints. For a realistic assessment of future adaptation prospects, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome these constraints. Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios. We find that even in the most optimistic scenario, it will take until well after 2050 to overcome key constraints, which will limit adaptation for decades to come particularly in vulnerable countries. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our approach allows to ground truth indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts, improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.

The social costs of tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can adversely affect economic development for more than a decade. Yet, these long-term effects are not accounted for in current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), a key metric informing climate policy on the societal costs of greenhouse gas emissions. We here derive temperature-dependent damage functions for 41 TC-affected countries to quantify the country-level SCC induced by the persistent growth effects of damaging TCs. We find that accounting for TC impacts substantially increases the global SCC by more than 20%; median global SCC increases from US$ 173 to US$ 212 per tonne of CO2 under a middle-of-the-road future emission and socioeconomic development scenario. This increase is mainly driven by the strongly TC-affected major greenhouse gas emitting countries India, USA, China, Taiwan, and Japan. This suggests that the benefits of climate policies could currently be substantially underestimated. Adequately accounting for the damages of extreme weather events in policy evaluation may therefore help to prevent a critical lack of climate action.

Regional ecological risk assessment based on multi-scenario simulation of land use changes and ecosystem service values in Inner Mongolia, China

Regional ecological risk assessment (ERA) is an important means towards sustainable regional development. Yet, existing ERA approaches often fall short of characterizing ecological processes as dynamic processes involving uncertainty. Using Inner Mongolia, a high ecological risk area in China, this study employed a framework for regional ERA that considers ecosystem service value (ESV) and four scenarios of future land use patterns to understand its regional ecological risk. The spatially explicit risk assessment method was implemented by a model combining multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), cellular automata (CA), and Markov chain to predict future land use/cover of 2030, an adjustment-based equivalence factor method to assess the ESV in each scenario, and Sharpe Index to assess regional ecological risk. The results show the following. First, the overall ESV increases from 2020 to 2030 under all but the socio-economic development (SED) scenarios considered in this study. Second, the overall regional ecological risk of Inner Mongolia is high in the central region and low in the east, north, and west regions. The low ecological risk areas account for the largest areal proportion in the ecosystem services protection (ESP) and natural development (ND) scenarios, while the medium ecological risk areas are the largest under SED. However, some low ecological risk areas are converted into medium ecological risk in ecological and socioeconomic balance scenario (ESB) scenario. Third, NDVI is the driving factor with the strongest explanatory power for the regional ecological risk in Inner Mongolia, followed by mean annual precipitation and temperature. The present study applied a framework for regional ERA that explicitly considers spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty, which can be useful for guiding decision-making for ecological risk control and the planning of the land use of ecosystems.

Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways

This study investigates the combined effects of climate and socioeconomic change on fiber supply and forest carbon in Maine, USA, for broad alternative futures. We conduct an econometric analysis to project forest resource use over the next 80 years under a range of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results show that continued forest successional dynamics – without any harvesting – contribute the most to Maine's aboveground carbon (AGC) accumulation, with 2100 AGC potentially increasing by 140% compared to 2020. On this basis, climate change could result in 2.44–2.64 times greater AGC in 2100 compared to today. Harvest activities are major drivers of forest C dynamics, resulting in 2100 AGC being only 16% >2020. Socioeconomic factors (SSPs) had much larger effects on total harvest and carbon stocks than climate change (RCPs). Harvest volume were projected to increase by 9–29% between 2020 and 2100 for favorable socioeconomic development scenarios (SSP1/SSP2/SSP5) and decrease by 3–29% for unfavorable socioeconomic development scenarios (SSP3/SSP4). Overall, Maine's forest C pools were projected to increase by end-century for RCPs x SSP1/SSP2. This study offers valuable insight on possible methods for region-specific socioeconomic and climate change assessments, particularly in areas with extensive and diverse working forests with mixed ownership.

Global modeling of SDG indicators related to small-scale farmers: testing in a changing climate

Some indicators used to track the progress of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) suffer from a lack of reported data, and therefore need estimates to fill the data gaps. Using crop model outputs and global cropping system datasets, we present a modeling of small-scale farmer productivity and agricultural output (conceptually similar to the formal SDG 2.3.1 and 2.3.2 indicator, respectively). We analyze the responses of the indicators for 106 low- and middle-income countries for the periods 2051–2060 and 2091–2100, relative to 2001–2010, to various scenarios of climate, socioeconomic development, cost-free adaptation, and irrigation expansion. The results show the potentials of modeling in gap-filling of reported national data, and that the agricultural output indicator indicates the positive effect of climate mitigation to small-scale farmers. The contributions of adaptation are evident when agricultural output indicator is used but are no longer visible, or even wrongly interpreted, when productivity indicator is used, underling the importance of selecting robust indicators to track SDG goals in a changing climate. Also discussed are the caveats identified in the SDG 2.3 indicators that enable the design of indicators more aligned with the other development goals, such as poverty eradication.

Analysis of Air Quality Evolution Trends in the Chinese Air Pollution Transmission Channel Cities under Socioeconomic Development Scenarios

In this paper, based on the traditional grey multivariate convolutional model, the concept of a buffer operator is introduced to construct a single-indicator buffered grey multivariate convolutional model applicable to air quality prediction research. The construction steps of the model are described in detail in this paper, and the stability of the model is analyzed based on perturbation theory. Furthermore, the model was applied to predict the air quality composite index of the “2 + 26” Chinese air pollution transmission corridor cities based on different socioeconomic development scenarios in a multidimensional manner. The results show that the single-indicator buffered grey multivariate convolutional model constructed in this paper has better stability in predicting with a small amount of sample data. From 2020 to 2025, the air quality of the target cities selected in this paper follows an improving trend. The population density, secondary industry, and urbanization will not have a significant negative impact on the improvement of air quality if they are kept stable. In the case of steady development of secondary industry, air quality maintained a stable improvement in 96.4% of the “2 + 26” cities. The growth rate of population density will have an inverted U-shaped relationship with the decline in the city air quality composite index. In addition, with the steady development of urbanization, air quality would keep improving steadily in 71.4% of the “2 + 26” cities.

Оценка сценариев социально-экономического развития приграничных регионов Сибири с преимущественно минерально-сырьевым потенциалом с использованием метода «затраты-выпуск» (на примере Тувы)

Government of Tuva adopted a resolution "On the Strategy of socio-economic development of the Republic of Tuva until 2030" (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy), which considers two scenarios for the long-term development of the republic: basic and target. When implementing the basic scenario, the established trend of development of the republic remains, in which the basic social guarantees for the population will be preserved, but at the same time the possibility of implementing large investment and infrastructure projects in the economy is excluded. When implementing the target development scenario, a radical change in the current structure of the economy and infrastructure is expected: the planned construction of the railway along the Kuragino-Kyzyl highway will be continued to Erdenet (Mongolia), which will become through, since it will be included in the trans-Mongolian railway. We have made an assessment of the scenarios of socio-economic development of Tuva using the input-output method. The assessment shows that the projected target indicators, both for the basic and target scenario of the development of the Tuva economy, differ somewhat from the indicators specified in the Strategy. We have assessed additional development factors, such as the growth of mineral extraction in connection with the implementation of the railway construction project to Mongolia, as well as taking into account the growth of GVA in transport and energy. Thus, it can be noted that the intersectoral balance is one of the optimal tools for analyzing and forecasting the economy of regions.

A structural equation model of land capability and related drivers: Implications for land degradation forecasting in a tropical river basin

AbstractLand degradation is a worldwide problem with natural and anthropogenic causes. An important anthropogenic cause of land degradation is land uses that deviate from land capability, which is the “natural” use. Despite the conscience of scientists about this issue, studies are lacking that set up a quantitative nexus between land capability and related drivers. This nexus is essential because it allows anticipating changes in the drivers that promote or recede degradation. In this study, a partial least squares–path model (PLS–PM) was used to help closing this gap. The pilot study occurred in seven Paraopeba River sub‐basins located in the State of Minas Gerais (Brazil), where capability is dominated by mosaics of forests and pastures. Land capability was assessed by the ruggedness number, being inversely proportional to it. Among multiple potential drivers of land capability initially included in the model, collinearity and other consistency and performance analyses indicated the percentage of latosols and (re)forested areas, annual rainfall, and water‐related processes (e.g., weathering, nutrient leaching) as prominent in the studied region. The results linked increases of latosol and forest occupation to runoff reduction [runoff = latosol × (−0.640) + forest × (−0.156) + reforestation × (−0.379)], suggesting an attenuation of erosion by these parameters, namely gully erosion that impacts on the ruggedness number and land capability in the sequel. The weathering of carbonate rocks was also related to land capability changes because the PLS–PM model exposed a relationship between the ruggedness number and products of carbonate rock dissolution: ruggedness number = alkalinity × (−0.578) + total magnesium × (0.462) + dissolved oxygen × (−0.418). In addition to highlighting processes capable of changing land capability overtime, the model equations brought attention to measures that could improve it in the region thus preventing degradation. The measures included management practices capable to raise the soil's dissolved oxygen (e.g., through aeration) or preventing soil's magnesium deficiency (e.g., through foliar sprays). The network of cause‐and‐effect relationships set up by the PLS–PM model was finally used to elucidate about potential land use changes that would bring capability in the Paraopeba River basin towards a better status, such as conversions to pasture land. Future work is expected to further elucidate about the benefits for land capability of specific land use changes, through the testing of expected socioeconomic development scenarios.

Use of GIS technology and cellular automata for modeling multiple socio-economic scenarios of regional spatial development and inter-regional cooperation

ABSTRACT The advancement of effective spatial planning to support sustainable development and inter-regional cooperation has become an issue of serious concern for regional authorities. Spatial planning research helps to identify economic clusters and analyze their changing spatial patterns, which is important for understanding regional economic space dynamics and potential inter-regional cooperation. To support decision-makers in the development of efficient plans of spatial development encompassing the identification of the best-suited territories, a combined Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to interpret qualitatively expressed multiple socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms of graded suitability, and a formalized approach to the socio-economic evaluation of the territory is offered. Based on GIS technology coupled with integrated cellular automata decision analysis techniques, the study provides a method that performs socio-economic assessment of the study area according to the generated scenarios of regional spatial and socio-economic development. The proposed method is applied to Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krais, located in the Russian Far East. Socio-economic scenarios of spatial development initiated by investors and regional authorities were assessed and evaluated. The generated socio-economic scenarios illustrate how the unified set of spatial and socio-economic variables can be linked and used to gain insights into inter-regional socio-economic and spatial development. The application results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method in identifying the best-suited unit areas for targeted regional development.

Мобилизационная экономика как имманентная сущность российской цивилизации

Subject/topic. In the article, the author proves that the mobilization economy is an integral essence of the Russian civilization, formed in conditions of severe restrictions that were objective in nature. Methodology. In preparing the article, the author used general scientific methods of the empirical group (observation, analysis and synthesis, logical reasoning), concrete scientific methods (chronological, historical and genetic). Results. Within the framework of the scientific research, the following tasks were solved: the factors (climatic, spatial) that influenced the Russian civilization; the problem of traditionalism and lack of innovation characteristic of Russia was considered; the reasons for the dominance of state institutions were shown and the main mobilization mechanisms used in the historical past of the country were determined. Conclusions/significance. It is proved that the ideas about the mobilization economy as a temporary departure from the general path do not reflect the essence of this phenomenon. The Russian mobilization model is based on the impossibility of conducting extended reproduction. It involves the most severe mode of saving resources, time, effort. Economic practice determines socio-cultural features, which over time turn into an independent economic factor. In these conditions, the state becomes the main actor of public life, developing a strategy for social development and implementing modernization transformations. The reforms lead to increased «mobilization» in the country, i.e. to increased state influence on social processes. Application. The results of scientific research can be used in the formation of forecasts and scenarios of socio economic development of modern Russia.

Fundamentals of a sustainable future: Russian and foreign experience in financing critical infrastructure

Subject/Topic. Scientific article is devoted to the study of Russian and foreign experience of critical infrastructure financing.Methodology. General scientific (observation, comparison, measurement, analysis and synthesis, method of logical reasoning) and special (static analysis, expert estimates, graphic method) methods were used to prepare the research.Results. The following tasks were solved sufficiently to form reasoned conclusions and inferences: the matrix of critical infrastructure objects from the position of their role in providing sustainable development of the national economy was formed.Conclusions/ Significance. Russian practice shows steady growth of investments into critical infrastructure objects, which is connected with escalation of external challenges and threats on the international scene and political course of leadership to protect national sovereignty in terms of maintaining critical infrastructure objects in serviceable mode. The main place in financing critical infrastructure was taken by the state budget, financial programs of state banks and funds of national development institutions.Application. The results of scientific research can be applied by industry regulators in the formation of forecasts and scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia, as well as in the development of individual strategies for financing critical infrastructure facilities.

Мобилизационная экономика: ее возможности и ограничения в обеспечении устойчивого развития России в условиях санкционных вызовов коллективного Запада

Subject/topic. The scientific article is devoted to the study of the possibilities and limitations of the mobilization economy in ensuring the sustainable development of Russia in the context of the sanctions challenges of the collective West. Methodology. In preparing the theoretical section of scientific research, the authors used of general scientific methods of the empirical group (observation, comparison, measurement, analysis and synthesis, logical reasoning), practical – concrete scientific methods (static analysis, problem-chronological and historical-genetic methods of scientific cognition, Foresight session). Results. Within the framework of the scientific research, the following tasks were solved sufficiently for the formation of reasoned conclusions and conclusions, as well as promising expert assessments: 1) the definition of the term «mobilization economy» in domestic and foreign scientific and professional literature is given; 2) the analysis of the presence/absence of signs of the mobilization economy in Russia in 2014 – I-III quarter of 2022 is carried out; 3) scenarios for the further development of the mobilization economy paradigm within the framework of the Foresight session «4 worlds» are formed. Conclusions/significance. The key message of the scientific research is the recognition of the fact of applying the paradigm of the mobilization economy in certain sectors and spheres of the national economy, which are fundamental to ensuring national security in all its forms. However, the further development and transformation of the economic structure in the country carries a number of risks and problematic issues associated with the transition to a model of a planned administrative economy and the degradation of institutions of market self-regulation, which in turn casts doubt on the possibility of ensuring sustainable development of Russia. Application. The results of the research can be applied by industry regulators in the formation of forecasts and scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia, as well as by the management of strategic corporate structures in the development of individual strategies for sustainable development in the contours of the paradigm of the mobilization economy.